So they believe that he'll either be a bad shooter on limited attempts or a good shooter and a 3pt bomber? Not sure that makes any sense.
That's pretty unrealistic, tbh. Draymond was a great passer in college, was a good three-point shooter and obviously had a great basketball IQ. Clarke at Gonzaga was mostly a garbage man on offense in terms of taking advantage of broken plays, good touch within ten feet of the rim, overwhelming less athletic players -- albeit with historically great efficiency. Not a passer, shooter, dribbler or any perimeter skills.
In the NBA, his best bet is to become a standstill three-point shooter like Roberson or Bowen while mixing in points in transition and duck-ins in halfcourt sets. Anything more than that would be miraculous, IMO. And even that is aiming high because he hasn't shown to be a three-point shooter and his current shooting stroke doesn't give a whole lot of hope.
So they believe that he'll either be a bad shooter on limited attempts or a good shooter and a 3pt bomber? Not sure that makes any sense.
They are giving you one number, so it's presumably the center of what they think is the distribution of possible futures. The problem with such a projection of a phenomena like that is the distribution that develops is going to be double humped (bimodal if we are being fancy, https://www.statisticshowto.datascie...-distribution/ ) - one peak being cases where his shot doesn't develop = a peak centered on approximately 28%, and one of cases where it does = a peak centered on approximately 37%.
Interesting that Zion's standing reach is reportedly only 8'7"... He really appears to be short armed, but has a greater wingspan, much wider back, and larger hands than Clarke. There are some unusual measurements this year for sure...
One photo I've found of them together though appears to show Clarke with a longer standing reach: https://dancingwithnoah.files.wordpr...9/02/bc-z2.jpg
Last edited by R. DeMurre; 05-19-2019 at 06:02 PM.
It’s wild to me how many conflicting takes there are in this draft. I admit I suck at projecting college to nba, but some of the guys I trust that do well love guys like Grant Williams and Clarke. Then some are really skeptical.
I thought Clarke was supposed to be a good passer with a good IQ, so didn’t know if his handle realistically could improve enough to initiate. Sounds like no.
I think he has good handles ... for a center. In the very little I've seen of him putting the ball in the floor, he didn't look all that comfortable. I don't think he's a better dribbler than Danny Green for example. I could be wrong on that, but I wouldn't be too excited about him playing anything besides the four offensively.
Gotcha thanks - I am torn. I really liked him but all these guys make me nervous. Basically, hope they can pull a power move and just land Hunter
I worry about both of their game's, and considering that they have been consistently mocked to go to the Spurs, i am more uneasy about this draft than others.
Of the two, I think Williams is more likely to succeed IF he can become a cable 3pt shooter, he looked comfortable pump faking and attacking close outs in college, if he can knock down an open 3 or attack the opposing big who runs out to challenge him I think that is a capable offensive player. He could exploit 3s who play the 4 in post ups and has a good looking jumper.
I do wander if he will be a full-time starter though and the thought of Clarke being a full-time starting center gives me a lot of pause. I still think Washington Jr. Is the best 4/5 I've seen slated to be in the 11-20 range though.
Zion's Standing Reach is listed as 1" longer than Clarke's... hmmm...
Last edited by R. DeMurre; 05-21-2019 at 07:49 PM.
from what i'm reading on this site (granted it's ST which, collectively, has a track record that would be the equivalent to a third tier real NBA GM) i can't see why clarke wouldn't be available at the 19th pick. but i also can't see why we'd want him to be.
How can you say that
I see multiple posts from people saying they the Spurs missed out on this person
Seriously, I really enjoy TMVP evals. Given that a high percentage of picks never amount to anything it's refreshing to to see a more "critical" and even skeptical eval
that's why i wrote "collectively". for every knowledgeable and articulate ST poster there are too many ST posters who are the exact opposite of that. it's so bad that it's easier to remember the solid posters such as timvp (and a few other solid posters whose insight keeps me a regular ST member) than it is to remember all the terrible ones.
that being said, i just don't know what to make of clarke. he's been analyzed so much on this site, and in so many different ways, that he sounds like nothing more than a "meh".
Draymond playmaking is Magic Johnson level!
2008 was a pretty strong draft class. But go back and look at how wrong, in general, a lot of teams got it. Dragic at 45, DeAndre Jordan at 35. Even someone like Pekovic at 31 - 11 spots after Alexis Ajinca. The re-drafts of '08 are always a circus.
The Spurs have just done an amazing job of figuring it out, with all the low draft picks they've had.
i think jordan at 35 made sense at that time. he was a solid defender with zero outside game and a poor work ethic coming out of a&m. to his credit, he got his together and started working harder, although getting paired with CP3 in his prime was a gift. paul was able to maximize jordan's limited offensive range but outstanding athleticism.
Main reason Jordan fell is he refused to workout for any team outside of the top ten. Once he fell out of that range, the freefall ensued. The Spurs liked him but they weren't even able to interview him before the draft.
My comment was specifically about one comment DPG made - the ability to project college-to-NBA. I just knew that 2008 is one of those drafts that would look very different if people could project college-to-NBA. Everybody had the opportunity to watch Jordan in college. Every NBA team passed on him in the first round.
TIMVP pointed out below that Jordan refused to work out for anyone outside the Top 10. Those of us sitting out here never get the benefit of watching workouts, or listening in on interviews. But even NBA teams who do still get it wrong often enough. Considering where the Spurs have picked every year for a couple of decades, they are remarkably good at it.
i don't disagree with your primary point. i was just adding that there are some draft "surprises" that aren't as obvious a "how did so many teams miss on this guy" scenario with jordan being one of them. but, i agree that, more often than not, the spurs don't fall in that category of teams that missed out on a solid pick. there's a reason they get so much kudos from so many sources (ST notwithstanding).
this dude scares me. Hopefully one of the bad teams that picks high grabs him before us.
Clarke is weird in that you pretty much have to draft him if he free falls to 19 (he had a historically great season by every measure; analytics people would revolt if he's not picked) ... even though his fit isn't good. He can play next to Aldridge but that's about it. You can't play him next to Poeltl and the spacing dies if you play him in lineups alongside Murray and DeRozan.
It's highly likely he'll be capable of playing a role as a rookie -- but that role might be extremely specialized unless he drastically improves at least one of his perimeter skills. Right now, he's a Danny Green sized center with less perimeter skills than Poeltl.
No way you should draft him at 19, you want player with more potential with that pick, you should not draft him over bigs like goga, fernando, mfiundu, bassey...
If PATFO think he can transition to being a 3 offensively (ie playing on the perimeter, attacking off the dribble and jumpshots), you draft him at 19 as having as good potential as anybody in the draft (note he is almost certain to be capable of defending the 3 - his athleticism and defensive IQ are off the charts good). If you don't ... he's 29 at best.
https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/1...randon-clarke/
His shot is getting there, but the physical limitations are concerning.
Overall, definetly a good pick. Especially @19
He would be a high end role player and good quality for a 19th pick, but I doubt he will be available.
Really hope he's gone by 19, don't want PATFO to be tempted.
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