Harden AND Chris Paul both want out, likely to be traded to California teams.
Lonzo Ball doesn't want to play for the Pelicans, likely will be traded to a team like Phoenix or another big market like NY. Don't see him reporting to the Pelicans.
Pacific division is gonna be stacked (except for maybe the Suns; especially if the Clippers do get Kawhi Leonard), NW division still has 3-4 quality teams. But the Southwest? The Rockets core is going to be gone and they're going to suck. Mavericks are still bad. Grizzlies are still terrible and may lose Conley on top of that. Pelicans lost AD, gained Zion and a bunch of picks but they're a few years away for now.
I see the Spurs maybe winning 45 games and more importantly the division which, guarantees them a top 4 seed (though not HCA like in the NFL, unfortunately)... it should be like the NFL where division winners are guaranteed a round of home advantage, but still a guaranteed playoff birth is better than nothing when your division is really awful.
Spurs 40-50 Wins
Mavericks 25-35 Wins
Rockets 20-30 Wins
Grizzlies 15-25 Wins
Pelicans 10-20 Wins