Exactly. What makes the hypothetical pairing so deadly is that they're both (projected to be) solid shooters that you can't just sag off of like you'd do with a regular C. So any combination of screen-setting between Smith and Luka is bound to be extremely unpredictable - you can't just go full trap on the ballhandler, since it's an easy 3 for Smith, you can't drop down too far since Luka can easily leap over you and finish (and we all know offense is of more consequence nowadays in regards to foul-calling), and you can always switch up between PnR/PnP since Smith is also a superb finisher. The thing that would limit this pairing the most, IMO, would be Luka's BBIQ and defense-reading, which I haven't seen any indicators so far that it's above average (or average for that matter). Of course, he hasn't had his time in the spotlight yet, we'll have to wait and see.
But the more I think about it, the more I'm warming up to the idea of Smith. There just isn't much to dislike about him, and a lot to get excited about. People talk all the time about "modern ball" and prospects that are ahead of the curve in terms of having skillsets that are either coming into heavy demand, or will come into it in the near future; Jalen seems to me like exactly that kind of player. I'd go as far as saying that, given the assumption that he's not a total liability in the big boy club (which I haven't seen indicators that he'll be), I don't see a team in the league that wouldn't want a player like Smith on their roster. Stretch 4 that is strong enough to play the stretch-5, rebounding machine, hustle, energy, defensive instincts, intangibles, and I have to mention his shooting again just because it's so far from the norm for players his size and length. I've watched some good tape on him now and it's always the thing that impresses me the most about, even if there's a quip or two to be worked on his form - what could Jalen do on a team that gives him the green light from deep? Can the Spurs be that team? He certainly looks ready for the part.
But this is a Luka post, isn't it... So I'll say something that isn't minor by any means - Luka and Jalen's skillset fundamentally doesn't overlap. They can both not only coexist on a lineup, but work off each others' strengths, which is something I couldn't really say about, e.g., Achiuwa, even though I also really like him as a prospect. There's a lot of "if's" when you're talking about prospects and first or second-year players, but at least knowing that if both of them hit it, that you won't be struggling to find minutes for both, and you can put their strengths together, is certainly a plus. Especially since I see Samanic sticking on the team for quite a few more years, despite the level of player he turns out to be - no way RC's giving up on his poster boy anytime soon.
People are doing their research and starting to see why some folks are cautiously optimistic about the guy.
like stated by a couple of folks the 2nd half of the development league season he started to get better. Dude had to play harder though in my opinion but he has a ton of talent to work with
To be fair, I watched most of the gleague games to keep an eye on him and never thought he was a lost cause. For some reason, tricking my mind to think he's a 2020 prospect gives me a different point of view of things. It definitely helps in context that he's young and has tools few of the bigs in the draft has.
I wonder who is going to be the next head coach of the Austin Spurs.
For comparison:
Dirk came to the NBA as a 20 year old. Essentially, Luka's second year would be Dirk's rookie year.
Dirk averaged 8 points, 3 rebounds, and 1 assist during his rookie year (47 total games).
Let's see if Luka can match that this coming season.
Praying someone is telling Luka to try more mid range shots. Most of all he did was 3's and drives during his rookie year.
I wouldn't hold my breath.
A) Pop doesn't really call plays for anyone except for 4 players.
B) He's going to have Sammich out at the 3 point line all day. Only midrange game he will see is if he pump fakes and steps in. But I think that will be neutered out of him and he will look passive bc Pop will bench him for a "bad shot."
C) He should be coming off screens and shooting. I see no reason why we shouldn't have our combo guards set screens on the opposing team's big men which would leave a little guy defending Sammich. Well, other than Pop won't do that.
D) There's "no room" for him. We have Lyles. We have Forbes. We have whatever scrub vet we pick up this offseason. There's just no room to give Sammich any playing time.
We'll see, buddy...
He started to call plays for Keldon in the bubble.
We don't officially have both Lyles and Forbes yet...
I get it, he's going to have to "earn" his time. Everything depends on how much work Samanic puts in during this offseason.
I hope the young guys' mini-camp lasts a long time. They need to influence each other to work hard.
By now most of y'all should know to never doubt a Balkan player. They are different type of athletes and have a huge sports culture. He will develop into a good player, I don't have any doubts. He's just too young at the moment
He's clearly headed for another season primarily spent in the G-League. Presuming DeRozan/Gay are retained, Lyles and them will eat the "PF" minutes.
He shouldn't be shooting mid rangers. Only primary ball handlers need it in their arsenal because they need to be 3 level scorers to deal with various p-n-r defensive coverages.
His success or lack there of is going to be largely tied to his 3-point shooting. If it becomes good/voluminous enough that opposing defenses respect it, then his athleticism/ball skills will come into play.
God, today's league is so boring.
By the way, I'm not saying he should eliminate 3s from his game and replace it with mid range. Im saying he could use the mid range shot on post ups instead of driving it in all the time since he's below average there. I don't disagree his 3s will open things up for him.
Last edited by Dejounte; 09-14-2020 at 04:12 PM.
One interesting statistical glitch from last year is that Keldon Johnson actually had significantly better advanced stats in the NBA than he did in the G League. Granted, the sample size for the NBA was relatively small, about a dozen games with real minutes, but it's still something that stood out to me. KJ's raw numbers were better than his advanced stats in the G League.
Luka's raw numbers in the G League are pretty encouraging too, while his advanced stats were some of the worst on the Austin team. We'll see if he can follow in KJ's footsteps.
Mid rangers on post ups = turnaround jumpers. This works for Aldridge because he's overpowering and long armed, with a high release, so he creates separation and is on balance. Samanic is none of those things, so it'd probably result in some off balance, flinging Siakam-esque crap.
His driving and 3 go hand in hand because the latter sets up the former. He's not going to ISO and beat someone in space from a standstill. His game is going to primarily have to be a spacer, who dusts closeouts and provides secondary play making.
Fair enough. Although how does having a long arm help with separation?
I think Luka has a high release. Maybe the strength can come in time.
I take back the mid range shots needing to be on post ups, it can be however, including face ups and dribble crossovers or spin move and fadeaway. He already has the spin move down.
I didn't mean it like that. I mean, once he's created the separation by knocking the defender back some and simultaneously regathers while fading to balance himself before the contest, his length and high release make it virtually impossible to alter his shot.
But a lot of those types are that of a primary ball handler, who are tasked with breaking down the defense. He'll be tasked with either making the spot up 3s they create or, if he's ran off, makings plays against a rotating defense. Those plays should end in one of 3 ways: him finishing at the rim, dropping it off to the center in the dunker spot for the finish at the rim or if neither is available, driving and kicking to whoever is open for 3.
I get where you're coming from. I think maybe where my point is if he ever reaches a level where he's the focal point of the offense or one of the top scorers on the team and maybe I'm blowing my load by looking 10 steps ahead when he hasn't reached role player level yet (after which he's taken that step, THEN we can look at how he can expand his game as I noted with the midrange shot)
I'm not as confident in that projection as you are. Yes, Lyles might provide too big of a barrier for Sam to pass up, but there's no guarantee Trey will even be on the team next year. Even if he is and even if he remains the starter and Gay the backup four, it wouldn't surprise me to see Pop play Sam in that flex 11th spot he did with Walker/Beli. I think Luka is a four, but I have little doubt that the Spurs will try to get away with playing him at the three, and against bench players that may not work out so poorly. Also, trading away Murray, Mills or White would also open up some room in the rotation for another forward, and I think Pop could try to fill that with Sam. I also see Gay playing the five with some frequency next season, and that opens up room for another forward.
Basically, he needs to shoot well enough to space the floor. If he can, he'll probably get minutes at multiple positions because it pretty much doesn't matter who's spotting up off the bench. Might he still play in the d-league? Sure, but like Walker this past year, he doesn't have to.
Poop just can’t be a jerk and Every time he makes a simple mistake yank his ass or embarrass him by yelling at him in front of the whole team. Some players need tough love and some need a helping hand I think Luka is both and how Pop handles him will have a huge impact on how he develops and plays for us.
You can bet Samanic moving from the third row of the bench in the bubble to the front AND Patty Mills sitting right next to him is Pop's doing.
Over two decades of coaching, he's proven that he can.
It could just mean that they are planning on moving Patty, and they need someone to wave a towel. I wonder how Luka would look in dredz?
Nah, I think you're right. After they picked Sammich where they did, with all that high expectation, they can't put him in Austin next year. So now they have to bring him forward. There's a lot riding on this season for him.
I mean there are other ways he can work on his midrange. He can pump fake, take a step or 2 in and take that jumper. He can come off screens at the elbow and rise up for a shot. It doesn't all have to be fall away jumpers like LMA.
The only way Lyles might not be on the team next season, is if they trade DeRozan and get a starting caliber "PF" back. Even then, I doubt it. He's relatively cheap/young, fills a positional need and Pop is a big fan.
The 11th pick is more likely to be the 11th man than Samanic. There's also the possibility of their bringing Forbes back, which would relegate one of him, Johnson or Walker to it.
Samanic is strictly a "PF". Depending on the construction of the deep bench, sure he might play some garbage time "SF", but that's just for practical purposes.
That first shot is a dying breed (replaced by the sidestep 3), as is the second one (pin downs and single doubles are more likely to results in 3s) and generally reserved for elite shooters.
I know they are a dying breed, but I still feel like this is how he should be used going forward. If all players do is stand around at the 3 point line then that stalls your offense and makes you predictable. Adding this small layer to Sammich game will help us moving forward. He's 6'10 and can shoot. Those are the types of plays you should run for players like him
I think Lyles will be on the team, but the Spurs are also in a position where they could need clearance under the tax. There are three main ways to get that clearance, and waiving Trey is the most palatable (other ways being RJing DeRozan and letting Poeltl walk). If the Spurs draft any PF, the position becomes crowded with Gay, Sam and Lyles all on the team, and that ignores DMDR and even KJ getting minutes there. I think the team feels confident that Lyles gives them an okay floor, but I doubt they see him as a long-term piece.
I don't necessarily agree. There are a couple of guys like Neismith who might immediately compete for minutes, but I agree with some other posters here who think Sam is ahead of most draft picks. I want the Spurs to draft someone and make rotational minutes for them. But I also recognize that there are some guys who might not necessarily have a place on the current squad without some restructuring of the roster. Guys like Precious, Poke and Williams for example aren't nearly as equipped to be bit role-players like Sam could be if he gets that shot down this summer. There's more upside to putting them in the d-league than there would be for Luka.The 11th pick is more likely to be the 11th man than Samanic. There's also the possibility of their bringing Forbes back, which would relegate one of him, Johnson or Walker to it.
I know you're way more inclined to cleave to positional absolutes than I am, but I don't disagree that he seems more like a four than anything else. I do think, however, that Pop put very little stock into those designations. People talk about him always playing small, but it was just last year (2018-2019) that he tried to start the season with DJM/DMDR/Gay/Aldridge/Gasol as a unit. I don't think he'd shy away from Samanic/Gay as forwards at all. I don't think it'd be a great long-term thing, but it definitely feels like a worthwhile gamble and a way to add length to a second unit that has to compensate for Mills and Gay. Mills/Murray/Sam/Gay/Poeltl is an interesting unit if Sam can shoot well enough to space the floor. Foot speed would be the most obvious issue, but the size might really help. It's not an everyday unit, but it would work against some teamsSamanic is strictly a "PF". Depending on the construction of the deep bench, sure he might play some garbage time "SF", but that's just for practical purposes.
And if Poeltl walks, then I think you'd see a whole lot of Mills/Murray/Walker-Johnson/Sam/Gay lineups rather than running with Eubanks or the min center the team replaces Jakob with. Or if Lyles slides down and over, the starting PF job is back to being open again.
You definitely need diversity in your offense, but that shouldn't be confused with wanting a role player to take low percentage shots.
His role should be streamlined to what I mentioned plus possibly posting switches.
Can't see Lyles being a cap casualty. Poeltl might (foolishly) be. Can't imagine Lyles being a long term piece either, but even if they draft a four at 11, they're not usurping him or Gay next season.
Depends on which direction you think they'll go. I believe, if the top 10 more or less play out to projection, they're more likely to pick someone ready or close to being able to contribute. Could obviously easily be wrong though.
With certain players, Pop may not put much stock into designations. This guy has the makings of strictly a one position player though. You're suggesting he beats out both Johnson and Walker? I can't see it.
If they inexplicably lose Poeltl, I'm sure they'll sign some rotation caliber backup for cheap (Hernangomez?), but yeah we'd probably see more micro ball to compensate and just flat play the best talent.
tired of drafting guys who "might contribute in 3 years"... get guys who can play now. it's not like pro-ready players are also simultaneously immune from development.
its one thing to waste a pick on a guy who ends up a bust or injured, its another thing altogether to waste a pick on a guy like milutinov
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