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Keep him. Have him mentor the young core. Pursuade him to take a discount when his contract is up, or during extension talks this summer.
If the Spurs don't plan to offer DeMar DeRozan a contract extension (and I believe they shouldn't), San Antonio will have to at least consider trading him. A couple rumors have surfaced of the Spurs shopping DeRozan, however things were silent during the 2019 NBA Draft despite a whirlwind of deals around the league.
At the beginning of the free agency period, I expect there to be little talk of trading DeRozan. But after the max free agents start selecting their destinations, that's when things could heat up on the DeRozan trade front.
What would a DeRozan trade look like and how could it impact San Antonio in free agency? Let's investigate.
1. Trade DeMar DeRozan Into Cap Space
If DeRozan does get traded, I think the most likely scenario involves a team that strikes out in free agency who then turns to DeRozan as a consolation prize. A handful of teams could potential fit the bill.
-What happens if the Lakers fail to land a third star in free agency to put next to LeBron James and Anthony Davis? One would imagine they would at least come knocking to inquire about DeRozan's availability.
-Contending teams with cap room desperate for a guard like the Celtics (playmaking replacement for Kyrie) or the Pacers (to allow Victor Oladipo to take his time returning from injury) may be interested.
-What if an Eastern Conference team like the Knicks or the Nets is left holding a bag of cash and no max free agent to give it to? DeRozan isn't perfect but he's a player who can help your team make the playoffs, especially in the East.
To complete such a swap, I don't think the Spurs could get much back in the trade -- perhaps something like a protected first round pick or an inexpensive, somewhat interesting young player. DeRozan's market value just isn't high enough right now to warrant more than a minor asset. That said, the real value for San Antonio would be the sudden increase in cap space.
In a scenario where another team completely swallows DeRozan's contract, the Spurs could open more than $30 million in salary cap room if they renounce Rudy Gay. That would allow San Antonio to go out and bid on some of the higher end free agents on the market.
Alternatively, the Spurs could keep Gay in the fold and still potentially have in the neighborhood of $20 million in salary cap space. With that money, they could go after a second tier free agent -- like a Bojan Bogdanovic, as has been rumored.
Where the cap impact gets complicated is if the Spurs receive salary back in a trade involving DeRozan. For example, if the Spurs get players totaling $10 million in salary in exchange, they would then have in the neighborhood of $20 million to spend in free agency -- but they'd almost assuredly lose Gay in the process. They could keep Gay in such a scenario but then they'd be left with around the same amount of money to spend as the MLE (between $9 million and $10 million).
2. Salary Dump DeMar DeRozan
Another DeRozan trade possibility is to look for a team with excess salary cap room (Hawks?) that can absorb some or all of his contract. In this scenario, the team receiving DeRozan wouldn't want him, so San Antonio would need to include assets in the trade to get his contract off the books.
Considering the Spurs would likely have to give up multiple first round picks to make this happen, such a trade would certainly carry quite a bit of risk. The equation at the end of the day would look something like this: DeRozan + two first round picks in exchange for Bogdanovic + Gay. That's a lot to give up, especially when the Spurs can keep DeRozan, re-sign Gay and still have the MLE worth $9.2 million to spend in free agency.
3. Salary Dump DeMar DeRozan's Player Option
It wouldn't be quite as expensive for the Spurs to salary dump DeRozan if they're just trying to erase his player option from the books. In this scenario, the Spurs would match 2019-20 salaries in the trade but wouldn't take on any player with more than one year left on his contract.
Depending on the trade partner, it's probable that the Spurs wouldn't have to attach anything to DeRozan to sweeten the offer. Hypothetically, the team would covet DeRozan and the Spurs would take back an inferior player(s) on an expiring deal.
Examples:
-DeRozan to the Heat for Hassan Whiteside
-DeRozan to the Grizzlies for Chandler Parsons
-DeRozan to the Pistons for Reggie Jackson and Langston Galloway
-DeRozan to the Hornets for Bismack Biyombo and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
This scenario doesn't give the Spurs any extra ammo in free agency; they'd be in the same boat with the ability to re-sign Gay and add an MLE player.
Why would San Antonio do this? It'd give the Spurs a nuclear option they could detonate in a year if they so choose. By declining their 2020-21 option on LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs would then have enough cap space to go out and sign a pair of max free agents next summer.
On the other hand, the counterargument is difficult to fault: the Spurs would likely be making their 2019-20 team worse, declining their option on Aldridge would look foolish unless he falls off a cliff and next summer's free agent class isn't highly regarded.
4. Flip DeMar DeRozan For A Flop
If the Spurs don't think DeRozan is a fit but also don't want to take a step back in the short-term, they could look for a trade partner that is wanting to rid themselves of a similar player who is having issues fitting in his current situation.
Depending on the player and the contracts involved, the Spurs may even request assets be attached.
Examples:
-DeRozan to the Timberwolves for Andrew Wiggins and a pick or two
-DeRozan to the Celtics for Gordon Hayward and a pick
-DeRozan and Marco Belinelli to the Rockets for Chris Paul and two picks
-DeRozan to the Cavaliers for Kevin Love and a pick or two
-DeRozan to the Hornets for Nicolas Batum and a pick
The Spurs could stay compe ive in the short-term with such trades, however they'd be taking on quite a bit of long-term risk in the form of a toxic contract. The attached assets could make the gamble worthwhile -- or it could make an unideal situation even worse.
Conclusion
All in all, I don't think any of these scenarios are likely. It would take either a perfect storm of cir stances or for something to happen behind the scenes to motivate the Spurs to make a move. There are a few other even less likely scenarios (involving sign-and-trades or the Spurs trading away one of Derrick White, Dejounte Murray or Lonnie Walker IV along with DeRozan to upgrade) but when all is said and done, the most likely outcome is for the Spurs to follow a surprisingly straightforward path in free agency by re-signing Gay and then going MLE shopping.
Up next, I'll think through San Antonio's strategies with regard to spending the $9.2 million of the MLE. What type of player should they target? How many years should they offer? Is there even room on the roster?
Keep him. Have him mentor the young core. Pursuade him to take a discount when his contract is up, or during extension talks this summer.
For parsons!? Jesus we coulda traded kawhi for that and atleast got the #2 pick.Most those scenarios seem depressing tbh
Option one is by far the most feasible. Under no cir stances should SA be giving up assets to move DeRozan. But I think option three is what is most likely to happen if something happens.
SA gets to hedge; still a playoff team + likely getting an asset (pick and/or young interesting player). As I’ve said CHA makes a ton of sense if they are serious about keeping Kemba and making playoffs. Marvin Williams + Bismack + Pick or young player (PJ Wash) for DeRozan + Beli
I wouldn't mind taking Gordon Hayward but all of those other situations especially Chris Paul. Hayward would fit better than those other players.
Also as we saw with ATL having tons of space isn’t just about free agents. SA could ac ulate massive pick wealth while still being good if the youth pops by taking on one year deals for teams that need space
I believe they will keep DeRozan for the upcoming season. But in the unlikely case of a trade, I think it would be worth exploring if and how Nic Batum would work in the Spurs system. Salary-wise it's a lateral move and production-wise Batum would be a clear downgrade on paper, but DeRozan's numbers are somewhat empty as we've seen, and I just have the feeling there's some potential there with Batum that could be unearthed by the org. In the very least he would be a more coherent piece to complement Murray and White and possibly Walker as the next engines of Spurs machine. The Hornets might be convinced that DeRozan would be a good second fiddle or 1B option to Kemba Walker.
Kevin Love would be a very good fit with SA and LMA imo. If CLE would give real assets it would be one to consider if free agency isn’t a real play next 2 years
I had mentioned the Hayward possibility in a post several weeks ago, basically trading one disappointment for another. I still like the idea since Hayward would be more of a 3 and make room for the youngsters to develop but Ainge is an SOB to deal with. You think he has developed any humility with some of his free agents getting ready to walk? I also mentioned they may even be open to taking Milutinov.
Ugh Chris Paul. I sure hope the Spurs don’t hit that low. I like DeMar but if the price is right, good on the Spurs. But the price has got to be right...
I'm guessing the Knicks will totally strike out in FA. They have like $70M in capspace, and if they want to be players next year, will need to fill some of that with 1 year deals to meet minimum payroll.
Something around Bogdanovic seems very possible.
Thanks for this series of write ups...great stuff.
This Nicolas Batum has got to stop!!! Pop wants to make the playoffs and there's no way this team is winning 30 games trading DeRozan for Batum. If the team wants to tank then yeah that reads makes sense but DeRozan is better at every facet of the game than the 2019 version of Batum.
Keep DeRozan and get rid of dead weight like Beli and hopefully Patty. I really hope Belli, Mills, Forbes, and Bertans are traded to open space for other players. Well at least 2 of the 4. Hoping 3 out of the 4.
So about a 90% chance we head into next season with the following lineup:
Dejounte/Patty/Vet PG
White/Forbes/Walker
Derozan/Beli or MLE/Keldon
Gay/Bertans or MLE/Luka/Metu
LMA/Poetl
I think there's probably a good chance that one of Beli or Bertans is moved to cut salary and Metu is probably 50/50 to be on the team next year as well....
Probably a 50-54 win team and a 4-6 seed with a 2nd round ceiling....
League shaping up to be the most wide open it's been in like 20 years and the Spurs are gonna run it back + Dejounte....sigh.
Spurs made the playoffs with no Kawhi, DeRozan or Poeltl and now White is way better and SA can add Lonnie and FA too.
ddr & patty for kemba & batum.
jordan is dumb. play him like a fiddle.
Bryn will be ahead of Lonnie in the rotation. Beli too unless he is moved (that's probably the best that I could hope for tbh).
Unless Walker absolutely plays out of his mind in summer league + training camp or Bryn gets hurt for a long stretch of time, he's going to be relegated to the same playing time that CoJo got in his 2nd year.
It would be major hilarious if the Celtics trade jaylen brown for DeRozan when they wouldn't for klaw. For lulz and justice make it so, Ainge.
really don’t see cp3 as a spur. morey is too smart to want demar.
Try to get Bojan, sign Milutinov and call it an off-season. Win.
Yes Kevin Love is the most interesting in that scenario. It opens up a lot of possibilities.
He can play next to LMA or Jakob, probably a better fit then DeRozan.
Your still in good shape to make the playoffs.
He’s not creating a log jam at a position like DeRozan is.
He’s a decent big to build around with the young guys.
It makes LMA expendable if we need to move him.
He is only 30 with 4 years still on his contract. So you are getting prime years and when the contract is up your at the point of paying your current group of rookies, so it fits the timetable almost to well.
If you can get 1 or 2 picks, with knowing the Cavs could be a lottery pick, you continue to build the team.
A deal almost makes to much sense.
DDR and LW for DeAndre Hunter and 2nd rnd pick
of course it makes sense when ur the team with demar
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