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  1. #26
    D up! exstatic's Avatar
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    We are valued in a tie as the 9-10th most probable team to ring in the West with the Pelicans,and the Mavs are at 8 with +5000.

    I call that disrespectful,and Vegas is underestimating the 19-20 Spurs.

    It's a bet with value-But I am still not buying it cause i don't think there is any plausible scenario where the bet pays off.

    Talking about longterm betting,i'll wait till i get a chance to buy the Spurs making the playoffs with the Yes/No betting format or buy the 45.5+ Win Total bet as it stands atm.
    Judging from the Championship odds,making the playoffs is not gonna be a bad bet as well.
    Vegas tries for even bets. The losers pay the winners, and they take their cut. It isn’t about respect or disrespect, it’s about even money. If a team isn’t getting enough action, they lengthen the odds. It’s as simple as that.
    _____________________________
    Spurstalk pathology: if we win in the regular season, it's fools gold. If someone else beats us, we have no chance to beat them in the playoffs.

    "A coach can't change people," Gregg Popovich said before the Spurs obliterated the Nets on New Year's Eve. "They are who they are. No matter what team you're talking about, a coach can be observant and try to put his team in situations both on and off the court where some of that can develop, some of the camaraderie sorts of things. But you can't change people."

  2. #27
    Banned!!! GusT15's Avatar
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    Vegas tries for even bets. The losers pay the winners, and they take their cut. It isnít about respect or disrespect, itís about even money. If a team isnít getting enough action, they lengthen the odds. Itís as simple as that.
    That's the general rule in the single game ML or spread but it goes a bit further than that with longterm bets.They are a bit more "educated".

    I just checked the Make the Playoffs Yes/No bets in European sites to see if they are up.

    The Spurs are the 8th favorite to make the Playoffs atm at -200.

    The Mavs are at +180 and the Pels are at +205.

    So our floor is higher than those two teams but our ceiling is lower for Vegas.So i can't find value in the Make the Playoffs bet.
    Just the 46 Win Totals it is.

    Listing the Make the Playoffs current odds.

    Clippers_-10000
    Jazz ____-3300
    Lakers___-1650
    Rockets__-1650
    Nuggets__-580
    Warriors__-330
    Blazers___-285
    Spurs____-200
    Mavs____+180
    Pelicans__+205
    Kings____+400
    Thunder__+600
    TWolves__+600
    Suns____+1100
    Grizzlies__+1400
    Last edited by GusT15; 1 Day Ago at 06:24 PM.
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  3. #28
    Believe.
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    Wow clippers rockets warriors Denver easy money problem is we live in Texas

  4. #29
    Every game is game 1 Seventyniner's Avatar
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    That's the general rule in the single game ML or spread but it goes a bit further than that with longterm bets.They are a bit more "educated".

    I just checked the Make the Playoffs Yes/No bets in European sites to see if they are up.

    The Spurs are the 8th favorite to make the Playoffs atm at +150.

    The Mavs are at +280 and the Pels are at +305.

    So our floor is higher than those two teams but our ceiling is lower for Vegas.So i can't find value in the Make the Playoffs bet.
    Just the 46 Win Totals it is.

    Listing the Make the Playoffs current odds.

    Clippers_+101
    Jazz ___+103
    Lakers__+106
    Rockets_+106
    Nuggets_+117
    Warriors_+130
    Blazers__+135
    Spurs___+150
    Mavs___+280
    Pelicans_+305
    Kings___+500
    Thunder_+700
    TWolves_+700
    Suns___+1200
    Grizzlies_+1500
    These must not be listed the way I'm used to. Doesn't +100 (and -100) imply a 50% probability of happening (without factoring in the vig)?

  5. #30
    Banned!!! GusT15's Avatar
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    These must not be listed the way I'm used to. Doesn't +100 (and -100) imply a 50% probability of happening (without factoring in the vig)?
    It is in the 50% Yes/No format,i just posted the Yes Betting Value.

    And you're right i made the Europe Odds to Vegas Odds only by positive value to do it quicker in my mind .So i fucked up in other words.

    By positive odds it's actually

    Clippers_+1
    Jazz ___+3
    Lakers__+6
    Rockets_+6
    Nuggets_+17
    Warriors_+30
    Blazers__+35
    Spurs___+50
    Mavs___+180
    Pelicans_+205
    Kings___+400
    Thunder_+600
    TWolves_+600
    Suns___+1100
    Grizzlies_+1400

    The full format (negative-postive) for example is

    Spurs-To Make the Playoffs Yes -200 No +150
    Mavs- To Make the Playoffs Yes +180 No -250
    Pels - To Make the Playoffs Yes +205 No -300

    I think i did that conversion right.I'm looking at "Spurs Yes-1.50/No-2.50" for example and now my head hurts

    Edit (And of course i forgot about the online conversion tool and did it myself -I'll go fix the first post now as well)
    Last edited by GusT15; 1 Day Ago at 06:17 PM.

  6. #31
    Displaced 101A's Avatar
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    Wow, you're right.

    If Bernie wins you can give 70% of everything you've EARNED above $164,000 (including this bet and all other income you made that year - meaning every bit of the bet for me), PLUS 7.9% FICA (Bernie wants to do away with the cap), plus another 7.9% FICA if you are self employed (again me), PLUS whatever you pay in income tax to you state, town & school board (which is another 5% for me). All told on that bet, I get to pay 91%!

    Thanks.
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    Opinion is the medium between knowledge and ignorance. - Plato

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