2020 blue wave

[David Hogg]

Trump gonna win because Pollo Loco is open and traffic jams have returned

One thing is for damn sure, polls in June are a much better predictor of a presidential race than whether or not El Pollo Loco is able to sell all of its chicken before 7pm

[Will Hunting]

TSA checkpoint numbers are actually a decent indicator of economic activity, and they show that the economy isn’t anywhere near where it was.

There were 2.4 million average daily passengers in May 2019, while the average for May 2020 was 277k. That’s up from the April 2020 average of 109k, so it’s possible we already hit the bottom, but it still means that air travel is literally 10% of what it was a year ago. You’d have to be a completely delusional Trump to think the economy is storming back at some amazing pace right now.

[Reck]

Man, you can tell even the most ardent Trump supporters are feeling a little shaky about this whole thing.

Last night you had Darrin praying the protesters and looters would turn off voters and vote for Trump. And now you have rtm trying to justify this by saying are opening up y’all.

[DMC]

TSA checkpoint numbers are actually a decent indicator of economic activity, and they show that the economy isn’t anywhere near where it was.

There were 2.4 million average daily passengers in May 2019, while the average for May 2020 was 277k. That’s up from the April 2020 average of 109k, so it’s possible we already hit the bottom, but it still means that air travel is literally 10% of what it was a year ago. You’d have to be a completely delusional Trump to think the economy is storming back at some amazing pace right now.

Industrial glass supply companies will be making a killing for a while though.

[DMC]

Man, you can tell even the most ardent Trump supporters are feeling a little shaky about this whole thing.

Last night you had Darrin praying the protesters and looters would turn off voters and vote for Trump. And now you have rtm trying to justify this by saying are opening up y’all.

You don't seem to have a very well tuned receiver. This is well known already.

[Reck]

You don't seem to have a very well tuned receiver. This is well known already.

Read the room, inspector gadget.

[DMC]

Read the room, inspector gadget.

OK Gandalf the Gay

[Reck]

OK Gandalf the Gay

It's like you never grew up from the teenage phase.

50 years old and still trying to be funny with decades old .

[ElNono]

TSA checkpoint numbers are actually a decent indicator of economic activity, and they show that the economy isn’t anywhere near where it was.

There were 2.4 million average daily passengers in May 2019, while the average for May 2020 was 277k. That’s up from the April 2020 average of 109k, so it’s possible we already hit the bottom, but it still means that air travel is literally 10% of what it was a year ago. You’d have to be a completely delusional Trump to think the economy is storming back at some amazing pace right now.

Yeah, but how's Pollo Loco doing?

[Will Hunting]

New poll has Greenfield up 2 points on Ernst. Imo this is how the senate races should be classified as of now, with all the uncertainty there’s more undecided races than we typically see (bold means flipping from D to R):

Seats that have a 75%+ chance of flipping (unlikely to change without something extraordinary):
Alabama
Colorado

Seats that have a 55-74% chance of flipping (more likely than not but could still swing):
Arizona
Maine

Seats that have a 45-54% chance of flipping (toss ups):
Montana
North Carolina

Seats with a 25-44% chance of flipping (uphill battle but very much in play):
Iowa
Georgia (Special Election)

Seats with an 11-24% chance of flipping (unlikely but wouldn’t be crazy):
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan

Seats with a 1%-10% chance (complete dark horse but not impossible):
South Carolina
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Georgia (Purdue seat)
Texas

Sears with a <1% chance:
Everything else

[David Hogg]

[boutons_deux]

yep, Dems are nothing but placeholders until the next Repug autocrat is elected and, next time, an autocart smart enough to finish off America, into the oligarchy's unchallengeable Golden Goose.

[RandomGuy]

New poll has Greenfield up 2 points on Ernst. Imo this is how the senate races should be classified as of now, with all the uncertainty there’s more undecided races than we typically see (bold means flipping from D to R):

Seats that have a 75%+ chance of flipping (unlikely to change without something extraordinary):
Alabama
Colorado

Seats that have a 55-74% chance of flipping (more likely than not but could still swing):
Arizona
Maine

Seats that have a 45-54% chance of flipping (toss ups):
Montana
North Carolina

Seats with a 25-44% chance of flipping (uphill battle but very much in play):
Iowa
Georgia (Special Election)

Seats with an 11-24% chance of flipping (unlikely but wouldn’t be crazy):
Kansas
Kentucky
Michigan

Seats with a 1%-10% chance (complete dark horse but not impossible):
South Carolina
Minnesota
New Hampshire
Georgia (Purdue seat)
Texas

Sears with a <1% chance:
Everything else

So given this estimation, most likely outcome, given some tentative assumptions:

Republicans have 8 seats (7.8)
Democrats have 6 seats (6.2)

Puts it at 50-50, with the VP making a whole load of deciding votes.

[Spurminator]

It's pretty incredible that we're even talking about the prospect of the Senate flipping considering how the map looked 2 or 3 years ago.

[RandomGuy]

It's pretty incredible that we're even talking about the prospect of the Senate flipping considering how the map looked 2 or 3 years ago.

Pains me to admit it, but Graham was right in his admission about the consequences of Trump's election.

the Republican party. RIP. Welcome to the Trump party, asshats, because that is what they have become.

[baseline bum]

It's pretty incredible that we're even talking about the prospect of the Senate flipping considering how the map looked 2 or 3 years ago.

It's pretty incredible that we'd need a wave election after 110k+ dead of a virus the president ignored for two months, 13.3% unemployment, and the suspension of the first amendment to just maybe get to 50/50 in the senate.

[boutons_deux]

[RandomGuy]

It's pretty incredible that we'd need a wave election after 110k+ dead of a virus the president ignored for two months, 13.3% unemployment, and the suspension of the first amendment to just maybe get to 50/50 in the senate.

One has to wonder how much this is getting baked in.

Trump’s Standing In The Polls Has Worsened
https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/t...-has-worsened/
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

He is approaching a nadir of popularity a few months before the election.

The huge kicker is the generic ballot poll gap, 8.4% with momentum for a widening.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

The wider that gap, the larger the Democratic majority is in both houses, and it is a pretty clear bellweather for the executive branch.

[RandomGuy]

Pretty much what a wave election will look like, i.e. all toss up states going Democrat. Georgia as a toss up, along with Texas, should be worrysome to the Trump party.

[TSA]

[ElNono]

Pretty much what a wave election will look like, i.e. all toss up states going Democrat. Georgia as a toss up, along with Texas, should be worrysome to the Trump party.

Now adjust for voter suppresion

[Will Hunting]

Yesterday’s polls had Greenfield up 3 points on Ernst and McGrath up 1 point on Cocaine Mitch. I still think the later is a pipe dream but the Greenfield/Ernst race is clearly in play.

[Will Hunting]

You’re saying West Virginia is going to vote Republican come election time? This changes everything!

[RandomGuy]

Now adjust for voter suppresion

That only goes so far. Fascist party has been doing that as long as they have had power in most places, taking over from the Democrats when the southern racists switched parties.

That is adjusted, in other words. A large enough wave will overwhelm even that. Think of the normal suppression efforts as akin to a dam.

[RandomGuy]

WV going Republican? Even boutons knows that.

You could be sitting around with your thumb up your ass.