2020 blue wave

[RandomGuy]

But MJ Hegar rides a motorcycle

Saw her first ad the other day.

She is a veteran. Big plus in my book.

[RandomGuy]

The consultant I know who's been working on senate campaigns this year basically breaks the races into these groups:

- Hickenlooper, McSally and Gideon are rolling in money and are in good shape. Hickenlooper was running a bad campaign but Gardner pledging allegiance to Trump's SCOTUS pick basically concedes that race.
- Cunningham should be in good shape but that's still the most important race to contribute to since it probably decides the senate and they need a ground game to make sure black voters show up.
- Greenfield and Bullock are the races that are basically coin-flips right now but they're important since the Dems don't want to be relying on Joe Manchin to end the filibuster.
- Ossoff (GA), Bollier (KS) and Al Gross (AK) are the dark horse candidates who have a shot if it turns into a big waive year.

South Carolina is probably going to be out of play with evangelicals supporting Graham on a pro-life SCOTUS pick. Texas could even be winnable but it's a mediocre candidate and not worth the money.

Noted. Will take this advice to the progressive/Democratic groups I am plugged into. , might even copy/paste it part and parcel.

[baseline bum]

Saw her first ad the other day.

She is a veteran. Big plus in my book.

So she's a loser then basically?

[Reck]

Will Hunting There's been a lot of Iowa talk as of late so here's this beauty.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...20/5839311002/

Des Moines Register poll is considered a top of the line pollster.

[Reck]

Locking down Arizona for good now.

[Will Hunting]

Locking down Arizona for good now.

Bang!

[baseline bum]

Bang!

If Thread was alive he'd definitely bang that

[Will Hunting]

Will Hunting There's been a lot of Iowa talk as of late so here's this beauty.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/st...20/5839311002/

Des Moines Register poll is considered a top of the line pollster.

The Iowa senate race is the bellwether imo, it's the one I'm focused on contributing to. If they win Iowa it means they won CO/AZ/MN/NC and they have the senate without a tiebreaker. Ernst is a crazy who's always been vulnerable, they just needed a good candidate to run against her.

[RandomGuy]

The Iowa senate race is the bellwether imo, it's the one I'm focused on contributing to. If they win Iowa it means they won CO/AZ/MN/NC and they have the senate without a tiebreaker. Ernst is a crazy who's always been vulnerable, they just needed a good candidate to run against her.

Gave in to Graham's opponent, Harrison. Was offered a 600% match. Worth every penny to spite Graham.

[RandomGuy]

Yeah but I'm fine with them conceding Cornyn's race this year. It's expensive as to campaign there, same reason I think dumping money into Florida is stupid when it doesn't even have a senate race. Dumping $50 million into Kentucky was also stupid when they had a ty candidate.

It's not a complicated formula really. The charismatic and likable Democratic candidates who relate to the state's voters are doing well in purple/light red states, while the ones who are out of touch bots aren't doing well. It's not even about progressive vs. moderate in these senate races as much as its about name recognition and likability. With Mark Kelly, all you have to tell voters is "he's Gabby Gifford's husband" and he had an edge in a state Trump won.

Arkansas' 2nd Congressional District
https://ballotpedia.org/Joyce_Elliott

Not a major race, but winnable. Good candidate, IMO. Odd what Act.blue shoves my way, but i am all about having an open wallet this season. it.

Zinda, his face black, his eyes red.

[Reck]

Nearly in tears

[RandomGuy]

Nearly in tears

Well . Glad I am part of that.

He did have a kernel of truth. "This money is because they hate my guts".

Yes, yes I do.

[RandomGuy]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Biden still favored at 77% chance.

[Will Hunting]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...tion-forecast/

Biden still favored at 77% chance.

Silver has said that if polls stay the same it’ll be 90/10 by Election Day, so we should see Biden’s probability gradually creep up over the next 6 weeks.

[Reck]

Silver has said that if polls stay the same it’ll be 90/10 by Election Day, so we should see Biden’s probability gradually creep up over the next 6 weeks.

State polling has been extremely consistent as well.

Outside of PA and Florida getting tighter.

[Will Hunting]

It’s pretty clear from the recent polls that Biden is intentionally prioritizing white Midwest voters and educated white women over fickle hispanic voters who might not even show up. New Fox News poll has Biden up 5 points in Ohio and 7 in Pennsylvania.

[Will Hunting]

State polling has been extremely consistent as well.

Outside of PA and Florida getting tighter.

PA is getting tighter but Biden’s been at or above 50% in most polls. These state polls being wrong would be a substantionay bigger error than 2016 was. We also have more of the A rated pollsters conducting statewide polls this year.

[Reck]

It’s pretty clear from the recent polls that Biden is intentionally prioritizing white Midwest voters and educated white women over fickle hispanic voters who might not even show up. New Fox News poll has Biden up 5 points in Ohio and 7 in Pennsylvania.

That should make you very happy, no?

You've been advocating for this strategy. As am I honestly.

Prioritizing actual likely voters is the way to go. It's twofold as well as this same group of voters tilted the election to Trump and he is now losing them in droves.

[Will Hunting]

That should make you very happy, no?

You've been advocating for this strategy. As am I honestly.

Prioritizing actual likely voters is the way to go. It's twofold as well as this same group of voters tilted the election to Trump and he is now losing them in droves.

Yeah I should have clarified that I view it as a good thing. He’s made the decision to also not waste money in Texas as tempting as it might be. Georgia is a much cheaper state he can use to distract Trump.

A lot of the grassroots progressive groups have actually made some headway in convincing BernieBros to vote for Biden. It’s more or less what they’re focused on between now and Election Day.

[spurraider21]

[SnakeBoy]

Noted. Will take this advice to the progressive/Democratic groups I am plugged into. , might even copy/paste it part and parcel.

[boutons_deux]

TX Repug bags get their pushed in

Federal judge blocks Texas’ elimination of straight-ticket voting

Democrats sued the state in March

to overturn the Texas Legislature’s removal of straight-ticket voting.

https://www.salon.com/2020/09/26/federal-judge-blocks-texas-elimination-of-straight-ticket-voting_partner/

[Reck]

https://www.newsweek.com/over-860000...t-2016-1534452

Hopefully Deathsantis doesn't throw away those ballots like his dear leader wants him to do.

Either way, this paints a horrific picture for Republicans.

[Will Hunting]

https://www.newsweek.com/over-860000...t-2016-1534452

Hopefully Deathsantis doesn't throw away those ballots like his dear leader wants him to do.

Either way, this paints a horrific picture for Republicans.

Trump and DeathSantis could have very well ed themselves in Florida. Trump has made it so his base isn't voting until election day by scaring them out of voting by mail, and DeathSantis lifting all restrictions has made it so Florida is going to be a COVID cesspool by November.

That's not a good scenario for them on - the majority of Biden supporters have already voted by mail or voted early and they're relying on the base to come out in huge numbers on election day in the midst of a huge COVID outbreak.

[spurraider21]