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  1. #101
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Okay, I'll give you Minnesota. Even without taking back Arizona:

    Again, possible, but unlikely. Your map shows a margin of TWO EC votes. Two. Any ONE state lost in your selection means a loss for the Trump party.

    To which I say: 77,000 or less than 1% of three states that trump is currently trailing well behind. Trump won the presidency by that minimal margin of popular vote in three states.

    Many of the states you have listed here as red are tossup states that are close to 50/50. So you are, pretty much saying that the Trump party can win if a series of coin tosses all come up heads.

    Five coin tosses all coming up heads = 1/32
    Six is 1/64
    Seven is 1/128

    Election analytics website FiveThirtyEight identifies the states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin as "perennial" swing states that have regularly seen close contests over the last few presidential campaigns.
    Twelve potential swing states. To be fair NH is blue on your map, as is NV.

    As I said, possible, but unlikely. Don't take my word for it, take Cornyn's. Hopefully Beto will drop out and run against him. Would love to pick up that seat.
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    "You know what uranium is, right? Its this thing called nuclear weapons. And other things. Like lots of things are done with uranium. Including some bad things." -President Trump

    Putin has built up their military again and again and again. Their military is much stronger. Hes doing nuclear, were not doing anything. Our nuclear is old and tired and his nuclear is tippy-top from what I hear. Better be careful, folks, okay? You better be careful. -President Trump



    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...16#post9293816

  2. #102
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Bullshit. You're stuck now.
    Stuck with your strawman?

    That is about your only real trick. Strawman something to death, and when called on it, repeat the strawman, as if, in repetition, it is true the 100th time when it wasn't true the first.

    Seems about par for the course for conservatives in general. Find a strawman, and stick with it for cheap points for the faithful.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 08-15-2019 at 01:02 PM.

  3. #103
    Believe. Pavlov's Avatar
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    What do you think? Be specific.
    DMC proving he didn't read any posts in the thread.
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  4. #104
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    I can only assume your being obtuse about your affinity and past praise of your heroes Koresh, McVeigh, and Nichols et al is due to a dude with your exact same rhetoric getting snatched by the Feds for it.
    ---"Hello, FBI tip line? Yes, I'd like to report a guy out in Arizona who is talking against the FBI particularly in the Waco event. He's old, white, ED'ed, & loves Koresh. I don't know if he's armed, but, I believe he is & heavily so. If you can stop trying to overthrow 45 long enough to send a unit of agents and 50k lbs of equipment to his front yard I think it'd be worth your while. Thank you."

  5. #105
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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    ---"Hello, FBI tip line? Yes, I'd like to report a guy out in Arizona who is talking against the FBI particularly in the Waco event. He's old, white, ED'ed, & loves Koresh. I don't know if he's armed, but, I believe he is & heavily so. If you can stop trying to overthrow 45 long enough to send a unit of agents and 50k lbs of equipment to his front yard I think it'd be worth your while. Thank you."
    Speak your mind, Dale. Tell us all about your Koresh. There's no such thing as a thought crime.

  6. #106
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    There's no such thing as a thought crime.

  7. #107
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Speak your mind, Dale. Tell us all about your Koresh. There's no such thing as a thought crime.
    The F.B.I. finally have Tom Barkley's balls back. Gonna act like somebody. No more of that sneaking around trying to okey doke 45.

    They look like a hundred bucks.

    Big shots.

  8. #108
    FLY EAGLES FLY!!!!! Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    https://www.npr.org/2019/08/15/75136...nnable-in-2020

    Trump campaign looking to expand the battleground states, building infrastructure in a few normally blue states. New Mexico, Nevada and New Hampshire

    A bit more here, if you don't want or can't listen to the above piece:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...on-map-1352437
    Those "blue" states haven't been blue for all that long; GWB won all 3 of them
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  9. #109
    FLY EAGLES FLY!!!!! Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Twelve potential swing states. To be fair NH is blue on your map, as is NV.
    As is CO and MN. Not to mention AZ and TX are blue on my map, which if the former is red, allows Trump to lose another swing state; whereas winning Texas would allow Trump to lose 3-4 swing states depending on which ones.

    CO for example is a staunchly libertarian state, but not distinctly libertarian-left like Washington/Seattle. They will go for whichever party presents the most opportunities to enhance or defend freedoms at the given time. For awhile now it's been the Dems because of gay marriage, marijuana and abortion, but Colorado loves their guns, so if that becomes a real talking point the Dems can easily drop CO, and possibly NV on top of that.

  10. #110
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Those "blue" states haven't been blue for all that long; GWB won all 3 of them
    2018-1988 = 30 years

  11. #111
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    2018-1988 = 30 years
    "Doesn't it go by in a blink?"

  12. #112
    FLY EAGLES FLY!!!!! Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    2018-1988 = 30 years
    GWB, not GHWB.

    so, 14 years.

    If you want to go back to GHWB, now that was a true landslide... he even won California and Illinois and dominated in New Jersey. And won a substantial chunk of the Northeast. Weird thing was how Iowa was so liberal back then. Makes you just realize how you can't really predict anything too far into the future.


  13. #113
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    "Doesn't it go by in a blink?"
    Certainly did for me. Holy balls.

  14. #114
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    GWB, not GHWB.

    so, 14 years.

    If you want to go back to GHWB, now that was a true landslide... he even won California and Illinois and dominated in New Jersey. And won a substantial chunk of the Northeast. Weird thing was how Iowa was so liberal back then. Makes you just realize how you can't really predict anything too far into the future.

    Ah sorry. I misunderstood.

    That was definitely before the GOP in California imploded by demonizing Hispanics, who turned on them after being initially somewhat split. The same California that today has seven more electoral college votes than it did then.

    Map has definitely gotten a lot bluer since 1988. It's almost like something is changing...

  15. #115
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    A state voting for GHWB does meant anything beyond that, esp not that the entire state was, is red.

    The Congressional contingent and state legislatures determine color

  16. #116
    Veteran baseline bum's Avatar
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    Many of the states you have listed here as red are tossup states that are close to 50/50. So you are, pretty much saying that the Trump party can win if a series of coin tosses all come up heads.

    Five coin tosses all coming up heads = 1/32
    Six is 1/64
    Seven is 1/128
    Come on RG, this is the same logic that made so much of the media claim Hillary was a lock rather than somewhat of a favorite. Battleground states aren't independent coin flips.
    Last edited by baseline bum; 08-15-2019 at 05:50 PM.

  17. #117
    Veteran DMC's Avatar
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    "Doesn't it go by in a blink?"
    Meet Joe Black?

  18. #118
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Meet Joe Black?
    Yep. The old D comes thru in the end!

  19. #119
    FLY EAGLES FLY!!!!! Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Ah sorry. I misunderstood.

    That was definitely before the GOP in California imploded by demonizing Hispanics, who turned on them after being initially somewhat split. The same California that today has seven more electoral college votes than it did then.

    Map has definitely gotten a lot bluer since 1988. It's almost like something is changing...
    Agree on the Hispanic part. The GOP blew their chance and were absolute dumbasses to not realize the demographic trend in its early stages and bend over backwards to win them over, just as FDR had done the blacks way back when. Illegal immigration is wrong, but it's absolutely ignorant to separate families and such and treat them like second rate citizens, especially considering they would go on to procreate more than twice as much as whites, and of course those kids would eventually grow up and turn 18 and vote......... duh?

    The Hispanics are still on average fairly devout Catholic and generally a right wing people, so it's not out of the realm of possibility the GOP can win a majority of them back in the next few decades or so, but it will take significant time (likely 20+ years) since a lot of damage has already been done, especially with Romney, Mitch etc. and then Trump's comments.

    Map in 1988 was red mainly because Reagan was perceived as having done an excellent job, very high approval rating, even around 50/50 with registered Democrats. Map wasn't so red in 1976 not too long after Watergate. Details matter.

  20. #120
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Come on RG, this is the same logic that made so much of the media claim Hillary was a lock rather than somewhat of a favorite. Battleground states aren't independent coin flips.
    The overall odds in Hillary's favor were roughly 60% or so if memory serves. It was a reasonable assumption based on what we knew. Improbable events do happen and 40% chance events still happen 4 times out of 10.

    You are correct about swing states not being pure coin tosses, but the analogy is still valid. They are swing states because they are close enough to go either way depending on a lot of fairly random (HA) factors that make it hard to predict with any real degree of certainty, just like a coin toss.

    Given the same incomplete data, some assumptions are sort of a given. Simply because the black swan event happened, doesn't mean that the data was wrong or the conclusion based on that data was unreasonable.

  21. #121
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Come on RG, this is the same logic that made so much of the media claim Hillary was a lock rather than somewhat of a favorite. Battleground states aren't independent coin flips.
    On a mildly related note, an interesting analysis of the battle of Midway:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd8_vO5zrjo

    From what the Japanese knew, their responses were pretty logical. Interesting analysis.

  22. #122
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Agree on the Hispanic part. The GOP blew their chance and were absolute dumbasses to not realize the demographic trend in its early stages and bend over backwards to win them over, just as FDR had done the blacks way back when. Illegal immigration is wrong, but it's absolutely ignorant to separate families and such and treat them like second rate citizens, especially considering they would go on to procreate more than twice as much as whites, and of course those kids would eventually grow up and turn 18 and vote......... duh?

    The Hispanics are still on average fairly devout Catholic and generally a right wing people, so it's not out of the realm of possibility the GOP can win a majority of them back in the next few decades or so, but it will take significant time (likely 20+ years) since a lot of damage has already been done, especially with Romney, Mitch etc. and then Trump's comments.

    Map in 1988 was red mainly because Reagan was perceived as having done an excellent job, very high approval rating, even around 50/50 with registered Democrats. Map wasn't so red in 1976 not too long after Watergate. Details matter.
    The kids in my wifes mostly hispanic high school classes are MAD.

    Bashing immigrants who tend to be overwhelmingly central american or hispanic has lost an entire generation, and that will not come back.

    The overwhelming white and racist Republican base that votes consistently will not let moderates encouraging favorable reforms through primaries.

    The gerrymandering done by the GOP has made too many districts into non-competitive ones, so this racist litmus test will remain one of the defining characteristics of many Republican candidates.

    Those kids in my wife's classes get the message loud and clear.

  23. #123
    Veteran baseline bum's Avatar
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    The overall odds in Hillary's favor were roughly 60% or so if memory serves. It was a reasonable assumption based on what we knew. Improbable events do happen and 40% chance events still happen 4 times out of 10.

    You are correct about swing states not being pure coin tosses, but the analogy is still valid. They are swing states because they are close enough to go either way depending on a lot of fairly random (HA) factors that make it hard to predict with any real degree of certainty, just like a coin toss.

    Given the same incomplete data, some assumptions are sort of a given. Simply because the black swan event happened, doesn't mean that the data was wrong or the conclusion based on that data was unreasonable.
    RG man, you're all over the board calling it 60/40 one time and a black swan event the next. The analogy only works if the votes are independent, which they aren't. Trump roughly won two coin flips: the rust belt and Florida. And that's why he's president. And even then the two are still still have plenty of correlation through immigration fears and white identity.

  24. #124
    Veteran baseline bum's Avatar
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    On a mildly related note, an interesting analysis of the battle of Midway:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bd8_vO5zrjo

    From what the Japanese knew, their responses were pretty logical. Interesting analysis.
    面白い。後で見ると思いる。

  25. #125
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Hmmm. My gut still says Warren. First few grumblings out of Iowa point that way.

    it will be, at the very least Not Biden.

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