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  1. #1251
    Veteran GB20's Avatar
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  2. #1252
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    potential killshot in the Iowa Senate debate tonight:


  3. #1253
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    potential killshot in the Iowa Senate debate tonight:

    Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own cons uencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

    So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.

  4. #1254
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own cons uencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

    So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.
    Lets ask the resident Iowan, Bogie are voters going to care about this or not? This seems like the petty gotcha question Iowa farmers will actually care about.

    The fact Ernst didn't know it isn't what's so bad, it's that she then pretended she heard corn and not soybeans, even though the answer she gave would have also been wrong with respect to corn.

    Chuck Grassley the senile farmer would probably know both of these though

  5. #1255
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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    potential killshot in the Iowa Senate debate tonight:

    Ok, one was prepared, the other wasn't. Question was fair to both. I can hear it now: "liberal media"

  6. #1256
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Tbh, this was a ridiculous gotcha question. Good on Theresa for being ready for it but I dont see this being a difference maker when you actually have actual senators who I assume are smarter than their own cons uencies who are ready to confirm someone who doesn't even know or remembers what's in the first amendment.

    So I think the dumb farmers won't mind if their senator doesn't know what day it is.
    Farmers are smarter than you think they are. It was a bit of a gotcha question.

  7. #1257
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Farmers are smarter than you think they are. It was a bit of a gotcha question.
    Gotcha question or not, Greenfield knew the answer down to the penny and was able to then launch into a stump about how Iowa farmers are struggling. Ernst looked like a politician who’s spent too much time in DC and isn’t in the weeds on what her cons uents are going through.

    Greenfield already had momentum on Ernst too. It’s been months since the last poll where Ernst was winning and there have been several recent polls where Greenfield’s lead was outside the MOE, last night was not good for her.

  8. #1258
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Gotcha question or not, Greenfield knew the answer down to the penny and was able to then launch into a stump about how Iowa farmers are struggling. Ernst looked like a politician who’s spent too much time in DC and isn’t in the weeds on what her cons uents are going through.

    Greenfield already had momentum on Ernst too. It’s been months since the last poll where Ernst was winning and there have been several recent polls where Greenfield’s lead was outside the MOE, last night was not good for her.
    Yup. Iowans watch stuff like that, and I have little doubt it moved the needle if the rest of it went similarly. (mom was from iowa, so I knew a few Iowans here and there)

  9. #1259
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    Lets ask the resident Iowan, Bogie are voters going to care about this or not? This seems like the petty gotcha question Iowa farmers will actually care about.

    The fact Ernst didn't know it isn't what's so bad, it's that she then pretended she heard corn and not soybeans, even though the answer she gave would have also been wrong with respect to corn.

    Chuck Grassley the senile farmer would probably know both of these though

    realistically, all farmers are aware of what prices are. You can ask a farmer what crops are selling for, any day of the year, they’ll be able to tell you.

    Ernst isn’t popular amongst the sect for her knowledge. But every exchange like that one emphasizes she’s not the hog castrating Iowa farm girl she’s claimed to be. I actually think she really may be in trouble now, political polling in a state like Iowa is never an exact science, because the only way the Dems Succeed is if the metropolitan areas show up strong.

    and, holy the moderator was Ron Steele, that dude came to my kindergarten class to talk about being a news reporter.

  10. #1260
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    realistically, all farmers are aware of what prices are. You can ask a farmer what crops are selling for, any day of the year, they’ll be able to tell you.

    Ernst isn’t popular amongst the sect for her knowledge. But every exchange like that one emphasizes she’s not the hog castrating Iowa farm girl she’s claimed to be. I actually think she really may be in trouble now, political polling in a state like Iowa is never an exact science, because the only way the Dems Succeed is if the metropolitan areas show up strong.

    and, holy the moderator was Ron Steele, that dude came to my kindergarten class to talk about being a news reporter.
    IA has pretty detailed early voting data and so far, it's been Dems with the enthusiasm. They're returning mail-in ballots at a much faster pace and have already cast 100k+ more votes than registered Republicans (which is a lot in Iowa).

    The Republican strongholds in Western Iowa going through a massive COVID outbreak right now also can't be good for Ernst. The re ed conspiracy theory she peddled about inflated COVID numbers is biting her in the ass.

  11. #1261
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    IA has pretty detailed early voting data and so far, it's been Dems with the enthusiasm. They're returning mail-in ballots at a much faster pace and have already cast 100k+ more votes than registered Republicans (which is a lot in Iowa).

    The Republican strongholds in Western Iowa going through a massive COVID outbreak right now also can't be good for Ernst. The re ed conspiracy theory she peddled about inflated COVID numbers is biting her in the ass.
    Iowa is always a weird state, electorally. Congressional races are completely dependent on metro turnout. But state and local races are people voting for friends.

    the r’s hold all 3 branches at the state level, long time supreme Court justices were voted out because they affirmed the state repeal of DOMA.

    yet it was one of like 10 states Michael Dukakis won.

    The primary reasoning for any non farmer/ag business person to live there is pretty slim at this point. It’s a good place if you hunt, with the seasons. Des Moines is a decent town to live in, but you gotta make better than decent coin to live well.

    but they have Bible thumped any and all advantages away in terms of quality education, and so the population of achievers has dwindled. Will be interesting to see what the demographic looks like in another 10 years, it’s not trending well now.

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  13. #1263
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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    Yep, Trump winning New York is some real galaxy brain stuff.

  14. #1264
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Susan Qollins

    the article editor using a picture of her eating pizza


  15. #1265
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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  16. #1266
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    Susan Qollins

    the article editor using a picture of her eating pizza

    Looks like another happy le merchant. I’m starting to think these elite politicians are aware of the meme and are enacting it in real life.

  17. #1267
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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  18. #1268

  19. #1269
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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    My prediction is what I call “unconditional final.” It does not change. It’s a mathematical model based on things that have happened. The presidential election of 2016 has happened, the primary results are in…. Everybody thinks Trump is going to go down in flames, and here I am predicting with almost total certainty that he’s going to win. It seems crazy. But it’s not.
    https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth...-win-november/

    Wonder what he is going to say when his model is absolutely wrong.

    Dude's model depends on so few variables as to be laughable, IMO. Simplifying can be useful in some cases, but this... is comically bad.

  20. #1270
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    https://spectator.org/helmut-norpoth...-win-november/

    Wonder what he is going to say when his model is absolutely wrong.

    Dude's model depends on so few variables as to be laughable, IMO. Simplifying can be useful in some cases, but this... is comically bad.
    "The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”

  21. #1271
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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    "The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”
    He has New York going to Trump.

    You guys are so gullible.

    (Oh wait, you're just trolling, right?)
    Last edited by Spurminator; 10-16-2020 at 12:20 PM.

  22. #1272
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    "The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”
    So the model has technically actually been used on the last 6 elections, and he whiffed one already. Ok, not a great model.

  23. #1273
    Frumious Bandersnatch RandomGuy's Avatar
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    "The 2016 election was by no means his first foray into political projections. His model has correctly predicted five of the last six presidential elections, and projected the correct result in all but two of the last 27 contests when pre-election data were fed into his “Primary model.”
    (shrugs) Different models produce different results. Outlier models are just that for a reason, albeit still useful for aggregate predictions.

    This is an outlier.

  24. #1274
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    i saw this earlier. If you have the chance, read through the comments.



  25. #1275
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    So the model has technically actually been used on the last 6 elections, and he whiffed one already. Ok, not a great model.
    or they applied the model retroactively with polling/primary data and got correct results on previous elections

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