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  1. #1551
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    Monmouth is releasing a Florida poll today. If that one has Biden up by 3% or more, 538 probably moves his odds up to 90%. Right now the 538 Florida polling average is skewed because of a lack of recent high quality polls done in the state.
    Biden up 5 in FL.

    Also up 4 in an NBC poll.

  2. #1552
    Breaker of Derps RandomGuy's Avatar
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    The GOP's monstrous math problem

    https://www.axios.com/republican-vot...d9e3c8ac8.html

    ===========


    Study Shows GOP Has Moved to Extreme Right Over Past 20 Years

    https://truthout.org/articles/study-...past-20-years/
    eyup.

    The US Republican party just isn't the Anti-Democrat party, they are the anti-democratic party, pushing blatant corproatism/fascism.

    Not really much up for debate there.

  3. #1553
    Breaker of Derps RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Do you realize how much Trumpism has warped your brain? You’re more critical of a candidate who’s going to great lengths to keep his supporters safe (as if that’s some kind of character flaw) while you’re fine with the candidate who leaves his supporters on an empty tarmac on the middle of nowhere freezing to death. It’s completely backwards.
    (shrugs)

    TDS

  4. #1554
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Biden up 5 in FL.
    Up 5-6% per Monmouth (Monmouth has him up by 6% in a high turnout election which is clearly what 2020 is) and 4% per Marist, two A+ rated pollsters

    Waiting for 538 to process the Monmouth poll but that probably takes Biden’s probability to 90%.

  5. #1555
    The Timeless One Leetonidas's Avatar
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    Ain't no "maybe" about it.
    Feel sorry for your kids tbh

  6. #1556
    Breaker of Derps RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Oct 23, 2016
    Hillary 86.2%
    Trump 13.8%

    Oct 23, 2020
    Biden 87%
    Trump 13%
    OCT 29, 2020
    Biden 89%
    Trump 11%

    OCT 29, 2016
    Clinton 81%
    Trump 19%

    The day before the Comey rat , where the election ended up at 71%-29% per their polling avereage.

    Better comparison:
    Election day minus 5 days, 2016 (NOV 3)
    C-66%
    T-34%

    (sharply trending down for C)

    Election day minus 5 days, 2020
    B-89%
    T-11%

    (stable, slightly trending B)

  7. #1557
    絶対領域が大好きなんだよ baseline bum's Avatar
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    Up 5-6% per Monmouth (Monmouth has him up by 6% in a high turnout election which is clearly what 2020 is) and 4% per Marist, two A+ rated pollsters

    Waiting for 538 to process the Monmouth poll but that probably takes Biden’s probability to 90%.
    Was just about to post this. God if Trump blows Florida when it's full of rmt-esque dip s and ins uted a poll tax.

  8. #1558
    絶対領域が大好きなんだよ baseline bum's Avatar
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    you are such a disgrace to Asians.
    LOL black Jamaicans who immigrated from China despite knowing no Chinese.

  9. #1559
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Looks like abandoning suffering voters isn't a winning strategy.


  10. #1560
    Breaker of Derps RandomGuy's Avatar
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    All toss-ups other than Texas going to Biden:



    Modest probability.
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------





    All toss ups going Trump.


    Low probability
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------



    Full on rout:


    Low probability. (Per 538's model, this result is more likely though, than Trump running the table on the toss-ups, an eyebrow raising quirk)
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 10-29-2020 at 12:37 PM. Reason: formatting and readability

  11. #1561
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Was just about to post this. God if Trump blows Florida when it's full of rmt-esque dip s and ins uted a poll tax.
    The poll said only 17% planned to wait until Election Day to vote, so right now close to 70+% of all votes in Florida have already been banned and Biden is likely leading among those votes, and he’s got a bigger war chest to spend on ads/GOTV effort for undecided voters and low propensity Democrats.

  12. #1562
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
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    I would be surprised to see all those Northern states go Blue after all the chaos blacks have caused in 2020

  13. #1563
    Veteran Isitjustme?'s Avatar
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  14. #1564
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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  15. #1565
    絶対領域が大好きなんだよ baseline bum's Avatar
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    I would be surprised to see all those Northern states go Blue after all the chaos blacks have caused in 2020
    Trump's America, dumbass

  16. #1566
    coffee's for closers FrostKing's Avatar
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    Trump's America, dumbass
    Local governments excuse if not encourage them and Biden/Harris have voiced the same belief system. Unless you can find me a quote of Trump supporting BLM.

    California has a prop on the ballot getting rid of cash bails. Trump doesn't support that.

    Seattle wants to eliminate misdemeanor charges for non-violent crimes

  17. #1567
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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  18. #1568
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Probably scared that Ossoff is gonna tear him another asshole. You hate to see it.

  19. #1569
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    Smart move by Purdue. He took an absolute beating. Why subject yourself to more ass whopping?

  20. #1570
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Not sure where this goes so I'm putting it here.

    Hey Trill Clinton they were blasting Gmac Cash at a Biden rally in Flint


  21. #1571
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    What happened on October 28, 2016 and what do you anticipate will happen in the following weeks to create a similar phenomenon?
    Not to mention Election Day is 5 days earlier this time

  22. #1572
    The Money Team DMX7's Avatar
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    Smart move by Purdue. He took an absolute beating. Why subject yourself to more ass whopping?
    Yeah, it was almost painful to watch and I want Ossoff to win.

  23. #1573
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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  24. #1574
    Breaker of Derps RandomGuy's Avatar
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    that was the reason for packing the courts. All theyíre going to do for the next two years is obstruct, pretend deficitís matter to them, count on legislation being struck down by their activist ideologues, hope the economy is still terrible and Covid is still raging, then win in 22.

    Itís been successful for them before, no reason to think it wonít work again
    Eyup. I dread the midterm drop-off. Hopefully State Democratic legislatures do their jobs and gerrymander the out of the Republicans in their state before then.

  25. #1575
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    Not sure where this goes so I'm putting it here.

    Hey Trill Clinton they were blasting Gmac Cash at a Biden rally in Flint


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