77,000 votes.
He has already lost Michigan.
Name the last two term president that won their second term by a larger margin of victory than their first. I'll wait.
Meanwhile, game it out:
https://www.270towin.com/
232 to 204 with 102 in the "tossup" category.
If most of the tossups go blue, as they do in wave years, that means 313-224
A deep blue wave gets Georgia as well as one or two normal red leans. 355-182
Trump will do worse than he did four years ago, and there really is no way to win re-election if he does.