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  1. #1
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    2020 is shaping up to be as bad for Republicans as 2018, and likely worse.

    First article, and I will guess that most conservatives won't bother reading the whole thing. Just a hint: it doesn't quite say what you think it does. If you don't look beyond the headline, you are doing yourself a disservice.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Texas Is Bracing for a Blue Wave in 2020. Yes, Texas.
    Why Republicans are getting very nervous about maintaining their stranglehold on the Lone Star State.

    ...

    “The tectonic plates shifted in Texas in 2018,” Senator John Cornyn, the powerful Republican who’s facing reelection in 2020 (with just a 37 percent approval rating) said earlier this year. Cornyn has been sounding the alarms ever since November, warning national Republicans against complacency and spelling out the dire consequences for his party if they can’t stave off the Democratic surge: “If Texas turns back to a Democratic state, which it used to be, then we’ll never elect another Republican [president] in my lifetime,” said Cornyn.

    A confluence of events over the past couple of weeks has reinforced Cornyn’s message. In what giddy Democrats are calling “the Texodus,” four Republican members of Congress announced, in short order, that they won’t be running for reelection in 2020; three of their seats, all in the suburbs, will likely go Democratic, adding to the two they took from Republicans in 2018. “We could see other representatives step away too,” said Manny Garcia, executive director of the Texas Democratic Party. “Why would you go into a knockdown, drag-out fight when you’re either going to lose next time, or soon afterward?”

    While the Texodus was underway, Republican infighting—the latest episode in a long-running battle between conservatives and the hard right—hit the headlines in the most embarrassing of ways. Republican House Speaker Dennis Bonnen was caught on tape by prominent right-wing activist Michael Quinn Sullivan crudely insulting several lawmakers, while rattling off a “hit list” of insufficiently conservative Republicans he wanted to be taken out in primaries next year. (Democrats filed suit earlier this week, alleging that Bonnen broke state law and violated campaign-finance regulations in the process.)

    ...

    Cal Jillson, a venerable political scientist at Southern Methodist University, is among those who think this president has accelerated the Democratic comeback in Texas. “My sense pre-Trump was that there were demographic dynamics that were going to bring two-party competition at some point,” he said. “I thought it would take another 15 to 20 years. But Trump has brought all that forward. It’s happening much more quickly.”

    ...Texas Democrats were giving Latinos and young whites no reason to engage. That started to change in 2012, when Gilberto Hinojosa, a former judge, was elected party chair. “He wanted a progressive, aggressive institution,” said Manny Garcia, who became one of the new hires charged with “creating a Democratic brand” where there was none, and moving the party into the twenty-first century. Texas Democrats now have full-blown data and digital operations; they’re raising more money online than any state party in the country, Garcia said, while plotting “the largest coordinated campaign in the history of Texas” for 2020. The party’s efforts have been aided considerably by voter-engagement groups like Jolt and Texas Rising, which have focused on Latinos and young voters and helped to send voter registration and turnout soaring; from 2014 to 2018, Texas added some 1.8 million new voters, the majority of them women and people of color. The party estimates that “there’s 30,000 to 50,000 Democrats who arrive in the state every month,” according to Garcia, and now—at last—they’re being asked to register, vote, and run for office.

    https://newrepublic.com/article/1547...2020-yes-texas

    Mostly jibes with what I see happening on the ground.

    I'll post a bit more here as data comes in. I will emphasize, once again, that Trump's win in 2016 was a narrow one, and he is less popular now than he was then, with the added headwind of an energized Democratic party.
    _____________________________
    “To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.” -- The kind of Republican that would kicked out of the party today.

    "You know what uranium is, right? It’s this thing called nuclear weapons. And other things. Like lots of things are done with uranium. Including some bad things." -President Trump

    Putin has built up their military again and again and again. Their military is much stronger. He’s doing nuclear, we’re not doing anything. Our nuclear is old and tired and his nuclear is tippy-top from what I hear. Better be careful, folks, okay? You better be careful.” -President Trump



    http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/show...16#post9293816

  2. #2
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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  3. #3
    I’m fat Monostradamus's Avatar
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    the annual “Texas is going blue! No, seriously, this time it really is!” bullshit tour has arrived.

    Texas is never going blue. Get it through your stupid heads. Stop acting like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football.
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  4. #4
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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  5. #5
    Still Hates Small Ball Spurminator's Avatar
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    Donald Trump has a positive approval rating in Texas, and there aren't any statewide candidates like Beto 2018 to make things close.

    Texas as a swing state ain't happening next year.

  6. #6
    Believe. Pavlov's Avatar
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    Probably more gains in the suburbs, but there are still enough rubes and racists in Texas to keep the state red.
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  7. #7
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    the annual “Texas is going blue! No, seriously, this time it really is!” bullshit tour has arrived.

    Texas is never going blue. Get it through your stupid heads. Stop acting like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football.
    Texas will become blue, with the only question being when. The GOP in the state will implode much as it did in California, for almost the exact same reasons. As the article noted, the generational shift has been likely accelerated by a few years. I have personally seen the effects.

    Going to guess you didn't quite read the article either. The state is already becoming more competitive. The Texodus is the canary in the coal mine.

    I would expect the 6 point margin of the last presidential election to be narrowed a bit.

    In the meantime, I will continue volunteering time and money for voter registration and get out the vote initiatives.

  8. #8
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Donald Trump has a positive approval rating in Texas, and there aren't any statewide candidates like Beto 2018 to make things close.

    Texas as a swing state ain't happening next year.
    Correct. If you had read the article, it says as much.

    What will happen in 2020 is that the GOP will lose a few more seats in Congress, and the Democratic party will flip a few more representatives in Austin. That is indicative of the cracks in the dam.

  9. #9
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Finally, a decent topic from RG...

  10. #10
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Probably more gains in the suburbs, but there are still enough rubes and racists in Texas to keep the state red.
    Pretty much. Keep in mind... 30,000 to 50,000 new residents each month, mostly Democrats, pushing out into new housing developments.

    A few gains to be sure, but Cornyn pretty much said the same thing I have here. Once the flip happens it will virtually end the GOP's chances at the presidency.

    As the article noted, Republicans just can't register enough new voters to hold back the tide.

    Texas is reverting to the mean in terms of percentage though. I expect that, especially after El Paso, to continue, which does not augur well for the Trump party.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2018/12...2018-midterms/

  11. #11
    Believe. Pavlov's Avatar
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    Pretty much. Keep in mind... 30,000 to 50,000 new residents each month, mostly Democrats, pushing out into new housing developments.

    A few gains to be sure, but Cornyn pretty much said the same thing I have here. Once the flip happens it will virtually end the GOP's chances at the presidency.

    As the article noted, Republicans just can't register enough new voters to hold back the tide.

    Texas is reverting to the mean in terms of percentage though. I expect that, especially after El Paso, to continue, which does not augur well for the Trump party.
    https://www.texastribune.org/2018/12...2018-midterms/
    Agreed. If Republicans keep demonizing Mexicans it could happen sooner.

  12. #12
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Finally, a decent topic from RG...
    Howdy there OM. I will be adding a bit more as more data comes in. Just wanted to put it up there for a subscribed thread.

  13. #13
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Agreed. If Republicans keep demonizing Mexicans it could happen sooner.
    That is pretty much what doomed the California GOP.

    Bonner is about to be tossed and replaced with someone likely to pander to more "bathroom" bills that will play well with the extremists that dominate GOP primaries, but continue to alienate voters.

    It is a matter of time before they come up with their version of Prop 187. They can't help themselves.

  14. #14
    Veteran DMC's Avatar
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    Texas will become blue, with the only question being when. The GOP in the state will implode much as it did in California, for almost the exact same reasons. As the article noted, the generational shift has been likely accelerated by a few years. I have personally seen the effects.

    Going to guess you didn't quite read the article either. The state is already becoming more competitive. The Texodus is the canary in the coal mine.

    I would expect the 6 point margin of the last presidential election to be narrowed a bit.

    In the meantime, I will continue volunteering time and money for voter registration and get out the vote initiatives.
    This is fucking retarded. The Earth will be 500 degrees Celsius. It's only a matter of when.

    Your thread title says 2020. That's your cutoff, sweetheart.

  15. #15
    Cowboys / Clippers Fan Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    Seriously... why does the left think it's perfectly OK to illegally cross the border and abruptly move to another country without major consequences?


    Answer: It's because the left wants their votes.
    _____________________________




    2019 Goals:

    -$125,000 or Greater W2 Income <---- Completed!!! Can I get a hell yeah?!?
    -Move out of Texas
    -Gain at least 10 pounds of muscle and weigh >135 <---- 132 pounds as of Aug. 2019
    -Find a new serious girl
    -Don't die


    #LifeLongLibertarian
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  16. #16
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    Trump is going to win reelection quite easily. The Dems do not have a strong candidate. Biden? Ha!

  17. #17
    Cowboys / Clippers Fan Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    A few gains to be sure, but Cornyn pretty much said the same thing I have here. Once the flip happens it will virtually end the GOP's chances at the presidency.
    but then the entire upper Midwest goes Republican... pretty much all significant white majority states outside of New England

  18. #18
    Believe. Pavlov's Avatar
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    DMC leads with the usual ignorant troll non-statement.

  19. #19
    Veteran DMC's Avatar
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    Finally, a decent topic from RG...
    Over priced boat tbh. You don't see many of these along the Texas coast except during the holiday weekends when the 2 times a year middle class dipshit and his BIL show up to fish with shrimp and croakers around public piers and jetties. The rest of the time, in the water that matters, you see the Haynie, Transcat and SCB type rigs.

  20. #20
    bandwagoner fans suck ducks's Avatar
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    Probably more gains in the suburbs, but there are still enough rubes and racists in Texas to keep the state red.
    Yes only racist vote red no racist ever vote blue!
    Has nothing to do with disagreeing with socialism
    _____________________________
    There are roughly 312 million people in the United States. There are Roughly 357 million guns. There are Approximately 32,000 deaths per year from firearms. 60% are Suicides. That is 19,220 3% are Accidental. That is 960. 4% are justified. That is 1,200 33% are Homicides. That is 10,560. 80% of those Homicides are Gang related. That is 8,488. That leaves 1,713 in a society of 312 million people. That gives you a 0.010256410256% chance of death by gun. A 0.008564% chance if you don't hang out in the hood not planning a crime and not planning on committing suicide. The United States Does Not have a Gun problem.

  21. #21
    Cowboys / Clippers Fan Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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  22. #22
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    @ hater

  23. #23
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    This is fucking retarded. The Earth will be 500 degrees Celsius. It's only a matter of when.

    Your thread title says 2020. That's your cutoff, sweetheart.
    Sorry, but no. Thread title is meant more for the national environment.

  24. #24
    Prince of Whales RandomGuy's Avatar
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    DMC leads with the usual ignorant troll non-statement.
    Pretty much.

  25. #25
    Cowboys / Clippers Fan Millennial_Messiah's Avatar
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    OP ignores my post mapping how the GOP can win the presidency longterm without Texas or Zona

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