2020 blue wave

[Spurs Homer]

Promises made. Promises kept.

Trump and his cult promised that Trump would blow up D.C. and drain the swamp.

The demise of the GOP - is almost complete.

Thanks, Trump!

[Extra Stout]

A week or two ago, I thought the early voting data in Texas was less than favorable for Biden. This was based upon TargetSmart partisan preference modeling that showed the GOP with an early advantage (51-43).

In states that don’t register by party, like Texas, that outfit models party preference based upon demographics and consumer data.

In Wisconsin, there is significant disagreement between polls of early voters and TargetSmart projections. For example, one poll by the NYT shows early voters in WI 82-18 for Biden, while the TargetSmart projection is 45D-37R-18I.

With that kind of divergence, one of them is simply wrong. There is no need to try to reconcile the two. There is no possible reality in which 50% of Republicans vote for Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Texas leads the nation in voting so far at 7.2 million, with several suburban counties already exceeding their total 2016 turnout with five days of early voting left. District-level polls of those same suburban counties show an absolute massacre for Donald Trump, with Biden running 12-14 points ahead of Clinton. TargetSmart data suggests this is totally wrong, that Trump is winning the early vote, and will only extend his lead on Election Day. There are a couple of national-level polls that follow the latter narrative, and include things like 25-30% of the black vote to Trump.

So, if applied to Texas, either Biden is going to do the unthinkable and turn Texas blue on a wave of enormous turnout and newly-blue suburbs, or Trump not only has held onto his base, but has won over a couple million new acolytes and will win by double digits.

There’s not really an argument to be had. These are two incongruous sets of facts and data. One of these is reality, and the other is a partisan wishcasting delusion.

I guess we’ll find out which is which next week.

[DMX7]

You should look at what TX-35 looks like

I looked it up and literally started laughing. This is what you get when you have a political party that is both extreme and totally shameless.

[Extra Stout]

I looked it up and literally started laughing. This is what you get when you have a political party that is both extreme and totally shameless.

Texas won its case at the Supreme Court with THAT district on the map. In case you believed that Alito, Gorsuch, and co. are highly principled legal intellectuals with a coherent originalist philosophy, as opposed to partisan hacks committed to White Christian minority rule, remember that they voted to uphold a map with THAT district on it.

[baseline bum]

LOL here is TX-35



Washington Post called it the ninth most gerrymandered house district in the nation in an article a few years ago.

[Spurminator]

Still the GOAT imo.



Would love to see Dread Pirate Crewshaw voted out.

[SnakeBoy]

Does it make you cry? If so, I'm ok with that.

Nope. Makes me happy tbh

[Extra Stout]

TX-10 is the one I’d really like to see go blue. It’s one of the most obnoxiously gerrymandered districts in the state the way stretches from North Austin to what used to be reliably red suburbs in Houston.

You watch, this next go-round, the GOP’s proposed map will have a dozen or more districts like TX-10. Even if the Legislature turns blue, the Republicans still have the Senate and Greg Abbott is still Governor. The Republicans cannot afford any kind of reasonable compromise, because Texas has to be their firewall. It will go to the backup redistricting commission, which has four Republicans and at most one Democrat if the Legislature flips. From there, if it goes to the courts, you have a 5th Circuit that will rubber-stamp Dan Patrick’s most outrageous wet dreams, and a Supreme Court that will do the same.

They’ll go all out, no matter what. It’s an existential crisis for them. Once Texas goes blue, the current party system ends because there no longer will be a path for Republicans to compete nationally, and there is no way to expand their appeal without losing their white nationalist/evangelical Christian (but I repeat myself) base. Once that happens, I predict the Progressive/socialist left will split off from the Democratic Party, while the Dems graft in the moderate Chamber of Commerce former Republicans and the racists/Christians drop out of electoral politics and dream of making The Turner Diaries come true.

[Extra Stout]

Still the GOAT imo.



Would love to see Dread Pirate Crewshaw voted out.

If there were a poll suggesting TX-2 was compe ive, we would have seen it by now. Sima Ladjevardian is the wrong kind of Democrat to win that district. But, she’s good enough at fundraising to self-fund... not enough to credibly keep up with the nationally popular Crenshaw and his own fundraising prowess, but enough to keep the Democratic base engaged.

Plus, she’s the exact right kind of Democrat to get favorable press in the Washington Post so that affluent coastal liberals keep donating.

[Will Hunting]

If there were a poll suggesting TX-2 was compe ive, we would have seen it by now. Sima Ladjevardian is the wrong kind of Democrat to win that district. But, she’s good enough at fundraising to self-fund... not enough to credibly keep up with the nationally popular Crenshaw and his own fundraising prowess, but enough to keep the Democratic base engaged.

Plus, she’s the exact right kind of Democrat to get favorable press in the Washington Post so that affluent coastal liberals keep donating.

The fact she's running against Eyepatch probably draws money from coastal liberals too.

[Extra Stout]

For redistricting, I figure the GOP will cede the 7th District and pack some of the Democratic parts of the 2nd and 10th into it. It would be symbolic, since the Republican Party of George Bush is dead and gone.

[Will Hunting]

You watch, this next go-round, the GOP’s proposed map will have a dozen or more districts like TX-10. Even if the Legislature turns blue, the Republicans still have the Senate and Greg Abbott is still Governor. The Republicans cannot afford any kind of reasonable compromise, because Texas has to be their firewall. It will go to the backup redistricting commission, which has four Republicans and at most one Democrat if the Legislature flips. From there, if it goes to the courts, you have a 5th Circuit that will rubber-stamp Dan Patrick’s most outrageous wet dreams, and a Supreme Court that will do the same.

They’ll go all out, no matter what. It’s an existential crisis for them. Once Texas goes blue, the current party system ends because there no longer will be a path for Republicans to compete nationally, and there is no way to expand their appeal without losing their white nationalist/evangelical Christian (but I repeat myself) base. Once that happens, I predict the Progressive/socialist left will split off from the Democratic Party, while the Dems graft in the moderate Chamber of Commerce former Republicans and the racists/Christians drop out of electoral politics and dream of making The Turner Diaries come true.

This is why Democrats need to pass an over-the-top robust voting rights act that'll be in place before the 2022 midterms, and they should just make it so the new VRA applies to all 50 states so the cons utionality argument Roberts used to overturn the last VRA goes away. The GOP is only going to be more aggressive with voter suppression from here on out because it's the only way they can win. If there's a VRA that stops them they're beyond ed.

[RandomGuy]

A week or two ago, I thought the early voting data in Texas was less than favorable for Biden. This was based upon TargetSmart partisan preference modeling that showed the GOP with an early advantage (51-43).

In states that don’t register by party, like Texas, that outfit models party preference based upon demographics and consumer data.

In Wisconsin, there is significant disagreement between polls of early voters and TargetSmart projections. For example, one poll by the NYT shows early voters in WI 82-18 for Biden, while the TargetSmart projection is 45D-37R-18I.

With that kind of divergence, one of them is simply wrong. There is no need to try to reconcile the two. There is no possible reality in which 50% of Republicans vote for Joe Biden.

Meanwhile, Texas leads the nation in voting so far at 7.2 million, with several suburban counties already exceeding their total 2016 turnout with five days of early voting left. District-level polls of those same suburban counties show an absolute massacre for Donald Trump, with Biden running 12-14 points ahead of Clinton. TargetSmart data suggests this is totally wrong, that Trump is winning the early vote, and will only extend his lead on Election Day. There are a couple of national-level polls that follow the latter narrative, and include things like 25-30% of the black vote to Trump.

So, if applied to Texas, either Biden is going to do the unthinkable and turn Texas blue on a wave of enormous turnout and newly-blue suburbs, or Trump not only has held onto his base, but has won over a couple million new acolytes and will win by double digits.

There’s not really an argument to be had. These are two incongruous sets of facts and data. One of these is reality, and the other is a partisan wishcasting delusion.

I guess we’ll find out which is which next week.

They could both be wrong.

My feeling is that the most riled up, like myself, voted at the first opportunity. All that remains are the people who "meh" along in most elections, who will slightly favor Biden.

Texas was 52-43 for Trump

My guess is that baseline has eroded. 49-46 for Trump this time around, or even a nail-biter 48-47

I do not see 25% of the african-american population in any state going for Trump. Not no how, not no way.

[Extra Stout]

They could both be wrong.

My feeling is that the most riled up, like myself, voted at the first opportunity. All that remains are the people who "meh" along in most elections, who will slightly favor Biden.

Texas was 52-43 for Trump

My guess is that baseline has eroded. 49-46 for Trump this time around, or even a nail-biter 48-47

I do not see 25% of the african-american population in any state going for Trump. Not no how, not no way.

Trump won by 800,000 last time around. The suburban shift among 2016 voters means that about 200,000 people who voted Trump last time will vote Biden this time. These are mostly suburban women. That’s a shift of 400,000, half of Trump’s 2016 margin.

Then there are the three million additional voters. Biden would need 57-60% of them, depending on how many Hispanic men switch over to Trump. That’s an actual thing. I mean, it’s not enough for Trump to pull George W. Bush numbers, or else Will Hurd wouldn’t have retired, and Beto wouldn’t have won Hispanics 69-30 no matter how dreamy the Latinas think he is, but there is some movement there.

It will take 6 million votes to win Texas. Trump wins if there are enough people in the deep-red areas who usually don’t bother voting because Texas has been automatically red, but who show up this time because it’s compe ive.

[Will Hunting]

Trump won by 800,000 last time around. The suburban shift among 2016 voters means that about 200,000 people who voted Trump last time will vote Biden this time. These are mostly suburban women. That’s a shift of 400,000, half of Trump’s 2016 margin.

Then there are the three million additional voters. Biden would need 57-60% of them, depending on how many Hispanic men switch over to Trump. That’s an actual thing. I mean, it’s not enough for Trump to pull George W. Bush numbers, or else Will Hurd wouldn’t have retired, and Beto wouldn’t have won Hispanics 69-30 no matter how dreamy the Latinas think he is, but there is some movement there.

It will take 6 million votes to win Texas. Trump wins if there are enough people in the deep-red areas who usually don’t bother voting because Texas has been automatically red, but who show up this time because it’s compe ive.

Imo an X factor in Texas are educated professionals in their 30s (older millennials/younger Gen Xers) in the major cities. These are people who are usually disengaged politically because they’re too busy starting a family or focusing their career and vote sporadically (if they vote at all). A lot of this group is going to vote this year not because they have an opinion on policy but just because they find Trump annoying. He reminds them of that freshman in college who’d show up to parties and would act stupid because he couldn’t hold his liquor. He was funny for about 20 minutes but they’re tired of him now. My friends from when I lived in DFW are like this and they’ve already voted for Biden.

[RandomGuy]

Trump won by 800,000 last time around. The suburban shift among 2016 voters means that about 200,000 people who voted Trump last time will vote Biden this time. These are mostly suburban women. That’s a shift of 400,000, half of Trump’s 2016 margin.

Then there are the three million additional voters. Biden would need 57-60% of them, depending on how many Hispanic men switch over to Trump. That’s an actual thing. I mean, it’s not enough for Trump to pull George W. Bush numbers, or else Will Hurd wouldn’t have retired, and Beto wouldn’t have won Hispanics 69-30 no matter how dreamy the Latinas think he is, but there is some movement there.

It will take 6 million votes to win Texas. Trump wins if there are enough people in the deep-red areas who usually don’t bother voting because Texas has been automatically red, but who show up this time because it’s compe ive.

Eyup. Your thoughts here are about what I said, roughly, somewhere else.

The split of new voters would have to be pretty heavily in favor of Biden for him to win. I know we have built on the organization we had in 2018, but didn't see the kind of ground-level power registration of new voters that would be needed to swing it.

Will be fun seeing the GOP lose more seats in the lege though. Hope I get to keep my rep. Zwiener is good. Smart, smart, smart. Watched her debate with the cardboard cutout the GOP picked to run against her. the cardboard cutout did not say one single thing the entire time that appealed to the center. it was "liberal elite" and "radical liberal" the whole time.

Intellectually bankrupt is the only way I can really describe watching the Republican flounder.

[RandomGuy]

Imo an X factor in Texas are educated professionals in their 30s (older millennials/younger Gen Xers) in the major cities. These are people who are usually disengaged politically because they’re too busy starting a family or focusing their career and vote sporadically (if they vote at all). A lot of this group is going to vote this year not because they have an opinion on policy but just because they find Trump annoying. He reminds them of that freshman in college who’d show up to parties and would act stupid because he couldn’t hold his liquor. He was funny for about 20 minutes but they’re tired of him now. My friends from when I lived in DFW are like this and they’ve already voted for Biden.

First time voters under 30 have surged. That demographic is very heavily breaking for Biden. There are more millenials than boomers... if they get off their asses to vote, they really could change . Hope they do.

[FrostKing]

First time voters under 30 have surged. That demographic is very heavily breaking for Biden. There are more millenials than boomers... if they get off their asses to vote, they really could change . Hope they do.

People without jobs, student loan debt, living with mommy and listening to Rap dictating the direction of the country

[Will Hunting]

First time voters under 30 have surged. That demographic is very heavily breaking for Biden. There are more millenials than boomers... if they get off their asses to vote, they really could change . Hope they do.

I’m not talking about the under 30 crowd. I’m talking about 30 something year olds who rarely ever vote but are voting now just because they’re tired of hearing about Trump on a daily basis.

[FrostKing]

I’m not talking about the under 30 crowd. I’m talking about 30 something year olds who rarely ever vote but are voting now just because they’re tired of hearing about Trump on a daily basis.

I think there is truth to that. They now have their get out of jail card the next time they are pressured over slavery, white privilege and systematic racism.

[Spurminator]

[RandomGuy]

Trump's campaign is out of money.

This is a the chance to nail them in every market possible, because they can't respond.

[Spurminator]

It's not really a lot of money but it's still double what the Biden campaign was spending in TX (assuming that $15MM is split between TX and OH).

[Reck]

Hopefully it works like it did in Florida.

When Bloomberg spent a cool 100 million in Florida, Biden went up 2 points there.

[Will Hunting]

I’m getting increasingly concerned we have a lot of black voters too busy saying MUH to pay attention to world events who operate on CP time and are going to mail their ballot the day before Election Day assuming Dejoy’s USPS will deliver it on time.