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  1. #151
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    fivethirtyeight Started tracking the generic ballot with a 5% spread, that has slowly widened to six and is now a bit shy of 7% spread.

    Who is winning The Race For Congress?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

    seven percent spread was the final spread for the 2018 wave.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ial-years-too/

  2. #152
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    fivethirtyeight Started tracking the generic ballot with a 5% spread, that has slowly widened to six and is now a bit shy of 7% spread.

    Who is winning The Race For Congress?

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...ex_cid=rrpromo

    seven percent spread was the final spread for the 2018 wave.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ial-years-too/
    assume the Dems take the Senate, House, and WH.

    I expect they, Nancy and Chuck, would do very little legislatively, but Pres Warren could clean out Exec branch of Repug/BigCorp filth

  3. #153
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    assume the Dems take the Senate, House, and WH.

    I expect they, Nancy and Chuck, would do very little legislatively, but Pres Warren could clean out Exec branch of Repug/BigCorp filth
    Taking the Senate is an uphill battle, but 2020 offers the best shot that Democrats have had in a while.

  4. #154
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    Taking the Senate is an uphill battle, but 2020 offers the best shot that Democrats have had in a while.
    Not if they keep talking about impeaching everyone they dont like. Impeach Trump, impeach Kavanaugh etc.

    Dems need to calm down with their white knighting. Today alone we had half the candidates calling for Kavanaugh's impeachment. And you wonder why we're always losing.

    If you want to win, you have to let somethings go. Kavanaugh is in there for life so stop being dumb cucks and focus on what they can actually do.

  5. #155
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Not if they keep talking about impeaching everyone they dont like. Impeach Trump, impeach Kavanaugh etc.

    Dems need to calm down with their white knighting. Today alone we had half the candidates calling for Kavanaugh's impeachment. And you wonder why we're always losing.

    If you want to win, you have to let somethings go. Kavanaugh is in there for life so stop being dumb cucks and focus on what they can actually do.
    Stop standing on principle when potential crimes have been committed, for the sole purpose of political expediency?

    Seems like "more of the same" to me. What if taking a principled stand is what wins elections?

  6. #156
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    Taking the Senate is an uphill battle, but 2020 offers the best shot that Democrats have had in a while.
    Without the Senate, the Dems in WH and House are screwed, never mind also screwed by the Federal judiciary.

  7. #157
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    Stop standing on principle when potential crimes have been committed, for the sole purpose of political expediency?

    Seems like "more of the same" to me. What if taking a principled stand is what wins elections?
    Yeah morality and principle won them 2016 and 2018.

    Voting against Kavanaugh cost them at least 3 seats. Keep harping about impeachment though.
    Last edited by Reck; 09-16-2019 at 03:06 PM.

  8. #158
    Baltimore Spurs Fan florige's Avatar
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    Tell you what will happen.

    Trumpites will claim "rigged" elections.

    Trump will not concede gracefully, if at all.

    I would consider it highly likely at that point, that the Trump cult will commit violence.


    If he loses in 2020 he will literally have to be escorted off the WH property. This will be some reality show type debacle we would witness trying to get that clown to leave gracefully.

  9. #159
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    If he loses in 2020 he will literally have to be escorted off the WH property. This will be some reality show type debacle we would witness trying to get that clown to leave gracefully.
    and he'll leave the WH stinking of fast food

  10. #160
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If he loses in 2020 he will literally have to be escorted off the WH property. This will be some reality show type debacle we would witness trying to get that clown to leave gracefully.
    He spends most of the time golfing or at Mar-A-Lago.

    All you really have to do is change the locks... heh

  11. #161
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    Brace for a Voter-Turnout Tsunami
    Even with a surge in overall participation, white working-class voters could still remain decisive in the 2020 election
    Signs are growing that voter turnout in 2020 could reach the highest levels in decades—if not the highest in the past century—with a surge of new voters potentially producing the most diverse electorate in American history.

    But paradoxically, that surge may not dislodge the central role of the predominantly white and heavily working-class voters who tipped the three Rust Belt states that decided 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Even amid a tide of new participation, those same voters could remain the tipping point of the 2020 election.

    With Donald Trump’s tumultuous presidency stirring such strong emotions among both supporters and opponents, strategists in both parties and academic experts are now bracing for what Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who specializes in voting behavior, recently called “a voter turnout storm of a century in 2020.”

    In a recent paper, the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist projected that about 156 million people could vote in 2020, an enormous increase from the 139 million who cast ballots in 2016. Likewise, Public Opinion Strategies, a leading Republican polling firm, recently forecast that the 2020 contest could produce a massive turnout that is also unprecedentedly diverse.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/politics...eaking/591607/

    I expect the march of Republican retirements to continue. Such an event would almost certainly favor Democrats, who have a lot more room on the upside for turnout rates.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 09-17-2019 at 02:17 PM.

  12. #162
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    the annual “Texas is going blue! No, seriously, this time it really is!” bull tour has arrived.

    Texas is never going blue. Get it through your stupid heads. Stop acting like Charlie Brown trying to kick the football.
    Gonna bookmark this post. If you are still here in a few years, have fun eating your words, kid. No one ever said it was going to happen instantly, just that it was going to happen. Trump has helped make it happen a lot sooner.

    American Migration Patterns Should Terrify the GOP
    Millennial movers have hastened the growth of left-leaning metros in southern red states such as Texas, Arizona, and Georgia. It could be the biggest political story of the 2020s.

    This drip-drip-drip of young residents trickling down into red-state suburbs is helping to turn southern metros into Democratic strongholds. (Of course, migration isn’t the only factor pushing these metros leftward, but more on that later.) In Texas, Democrats’ advantage in the five counties representing Houston, Dallas–Fort Worth, San Antonio, and Austin (the “Texas Five” in the graph below) grew from 130,000 in the 2012 presidential election to nearly 800,000 in the 2018 Senate election.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...fy-gop/598153/
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 09-17-2019 at 02:18 PM.

  13. #163
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    You expected Hillary in the WH, Dem control of House and Senate, and liberal majority on the SC

    So we'll see

  14. #164
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    What’s remarkable about these changes isn’t just their size, but their resemblance to Trump’s 2016 margins. Trump won Texas in 2016 by 800,000 votes. He won Arizona by 90,000 votes. He won Georgia by 170,000 votes. If these states’ biggest metros continue to move left at the same rate, there is every reason to believe that Texas, Arizona, and Georgia could be toss-ups quite soon.
    https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...fy-gop/598153/

  15. #165
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    You expected Hillary in the WH, Dem control of House and Senate, and liberal majority on the SC

    So we'll see
    Hillary was the most probable winner based on what was known at the time. Don't really remember what I thought about the congress, but the next president was going to get to replace Scalia, so if that were Hillary, the SCOTUS pick was also fairly reasonable.

    My thinking is influenced a lot by fivethrityeight, given their quant leanings.

    I did tell you that 2018 was going to be a crushing defeat for the GOP in the house and that the Senate would likely stay in the GOP. The same indications and trends will flow into 2020 and will be worse for that intellectually and morally bankrupt party.

    As I said before, after 2024, it will be increasingly hard for the GOP, due to migration and demographic trends. Once the Republican party loses Texas, the electoral college map will be almost impossible for a Republican nominee to win, no matter how much they cheat through gerrymandering, voter ID laws, and poll closings.

    2020 will also see Democrats take out the long knives of having their turn to gerrymander in a lot of places.
    Last edited by RandomGuy; 09-17-2019 at 02:17 PM. Reason: civility.

  16. #166
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    Hillary was the most probable winner based on what was known at the time. Don't really remember what I thought about the congress, but the next president was going to get to replace Scalia, so if that were Hillary, the SCOTUS pick was also fairly reasonable.

    My thinking is influenced a lot by fivethrityeight, given their quant leanings.

    I did tell you that 2018 was going to be a crushing defeat for the GOP in the house and that the Senate would likely stay in the GOP. The same indications and trends will flow into 2020 and will be worse for that intellectually and morally bankrupt party.

    As I said before, after 2024, it will be increasingly hard for the GOP, due to migration and demographic trends. Once the Republican party loses Texas, the electoral college map will be almost impossible for a Republican nominee to win, no matter how much they cheat through gerrymandering, voter ID laws, and poll closings.

    2020 will also see Democrats take out the long knives of having their turn to gerrymander in a lot of places.
    Predicting the opposition takes the House in the midterms when one party has full control doesn't make you Nostradamus.

    Polls mean nothing right now. You need a candidate first. I don't see one that can lead you to the promised land but I didn't think Trump had a chance so we'll see.

  17. #167
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Predicting the opposition takes the House in the midterms when one party has full control doesn't make you Nostradamus.

    Polls mean nothing right now. You need a candidate first. I don't see one that can lead you to the promised land but I didn't think Trump had a chance so we'll see.
    I merely stick to the best data available, try to set aside confirmation bias as well as other known failings of humans when thinking about information, and never claim to be any kind of infallible arbiter of the future.

    As for candidates:

    We will see another flood of women candidates on the Democratic side, with the Republican party remaining solely a white male party. This will continue to happen up and down the ballot.

    That is not a sustainable long term strategy for any party.

    As for president, I am guessing Warren will get the nod. She will out populist Donald Trump and be universally reviled by Wall Street, a sure fire vote-getter these days.

  18. #168
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    Trump and be universally reviled by Wall Street, a sure fire vote-getter these days.
    money talks, and Trash already has $300M? then BigFinance, BigCorp, BigOil, (oligarchy) will give many $100Ms to defeat Warren

  19. #169
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    As for president, I am guessing Warren will get the nod. She will out populist Donald Trump and be universally reviled by Wall Street, a sure fire vote-getter these days.
    If she wins she will also ensure that you see another GOP POTUS in your lifetime

  20. #170
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If she wins she will also ensure that you see another GOP POTUS in your lifetime
    We'll get to see.

    I have less confidence in your prognostication than you have in mine.

  21. #171
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    The astounding advantage the Electoral College gives to Republicans, in one chart


    In close elections, Republicans are favored to win even when they lose the popular vote.

    “Republicans should be expected to win 65% of Presidential contests

    in which they narrowly lose the popular vote.”




    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2019/9/17/20868790/republicans-lose-popular-vote-win-electoral-college


  22. #172
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    If she wins she will also ensure that you see another GOP POTUS in your lifetime

  23. #173
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    Not if they keep talking about impeaching everyone they dont like. Impeach Trump, impeach Kavanaugh etc.

    Dems need to calm down with their white knighting. Today alone we had half the candidates calling for Kavanaugh's impeachment. And you wonder why we're always losing.

    If you want to win, you have to let somethings go. Kavanaugh is in there for life so stop being dumb cucks and focus on what they can actually do.

  24. #174
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    ...
    Last edited by boutons_deux; 09-18-2019 at 12:26 PM.

  25. #175
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    [miscellaneous twitter bull about corey lewendowski or however the you spell it]

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