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  1. #26
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    I'd take Murray at $4 years, $60 million, preferably fully guaranteed.

    Jakob at 4 years, $ 25 million would be great value too. tbh
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  2. #27
    Believe. Down Under's Avatar
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    Agree with the stuff about Dejounte, but I think Poeltl is worth more than $5 million. Rim runners like Gobert, Capella, Drummond & Adams still have good offensive value as well as being elite defensive players (sans Capella). He's a better defender than Looney & fouls a lot less now. I know most people will disagree, but I see him as closer to $10mil.

  3. #28
    Veteran tbdog's Avatar
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    Spurs will let Poeltl set his own market value next year unless he gives Spurs a discount now. There's no point negotiating with centers like him these days.

  4. #29
    GAME OVER gospursgojas's Avatar
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    I just don’t see Dj signing for 15 mil a year. I mean Pau got that at 48 years old for 8ppg and 5 rebounds.

    I CAN see him easily getting 20 a year on open market after a full season of where his performance was/is in the 2017 season and this years preseason.

    If Spurs can lock him up for 15 a year, I’d be shocked but that be a huge win for PATFO.
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  5. #30
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    You had some pretty good points but I just went back and looked at every rookie extension ever signed and I don't see an example of which you speak. Do you have an example of a player who signed a rookie extension based mostly on their potential rather than their actual production? I don't see any big paydays for a player like Murray with such a short resume. Perhaps I'm missing someone.
    You haven't seen an example where a player's second contract was paid with the umption that the player would "grow into it?" I think if that's true it's missing the trees for the forest. I think our whole perception of what makes a "fair" second contract already includes the bump for potential. Like Wiggins was maxed because Minny thought he would eventually become a non-negative player. Jamal Murray was maxed out because the Nuggets believe he'll go from solidly above average to being a legit star. Not every second deal is like Jokic, Derrick Rose or Kawhi where guys are superstars or already have hardware to justify their deals even if they didn't improve substantially.

    I'm not trying to say that production doesn't matter at all. The lack of production is why we aren't debate a max extension for Murray instead of $13M or $25M per year. But I believe young players are usually signed more off narrative than anything else. Murray's narrative is stronger than his NBA history (something for which he's gotten praise and criticism on this board for years now). I think his actual value to the Spurs is higher than PGs who've changed teams this year because their previous clubs didn't seem to want them badly enough. In that same way, Jamal Murray and Pascal Siakam both got maxes more because their teams did well last year than because those guys put up elite statistical production.

    I think the best comp for a Murray extension might be Aaron Gordon. He had a strong narrative going for him despite not having a lot of production (13/5/2 with negative impact stats on a TS% of 53). The Magic gave him a $76M/4 deal. Under a 2020 cap, that projects to be around $86M/4. Schoder's extension in today's money is $82M/4. I'd be okay with Murray getting something like that on an extension, because even he he doesn't live up to it, it wouldn't be a horrible deal to have lying around. I'd be elated if you were correct, because that might be the best extension since Curry's. And I'm not all that bullish on DJM, but I can't ride with the idea that he should be content signed a long-term deal with the same APY as Danny Green.

  6. #31
    Veteran cd021's Avatar
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    Agree with the stuff about Dejounte, but I think Poeltl is worth more than $5 million. Rim runners like Gobert, Capella, Drummond & Adams still have good offensive value as well as being elite defensive players (sans Capella). He's a better defender than Looney & fouls a lot less now. I know most people will disagree, but I see him as closer to $10mil.
    I think Looney was a good comp. tbh He got a decent amount of buzz after his finals performance yet still only got around $5 million. If Jakob comes off the bench then his value will be further suppressed. He may not get a lot in RFA. A 4 year $ 25 million may be market value and a steal for the Spurs considering he looks like a potential future starting 5.

  7. #32
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    What would Kawhi’s 90M extension with Spurs in 2015 equate to in 2019 cap dollars? That one started at 16M (then) if I recall correctly.

    Seems like whatever that is in today dollar would be the super upper limit for the Spurs. And that would be a stretch. KL was coming of NBA final MVP performance, and also enjoying a good league wide “narrative” then.

    15-17M, at this juncture, seems right for Murray.

  8. #33
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    You haven't seen an example where a player's second contract was paid with the umption that the player would "grow into it?" I think if that's true it's missing the trees for the forest. I think our whole perception of what makes a "fair" second contract already includes the bump for potential. Like Wiggins was maxed because Minny thought he would eventually become a non-negative player. Jamal Murray was maxed out because the Nuggets believe he'll go from solidly above average to being a legit star. Not every second deal is like Jokic, Derrick Rose or Kawhi where guys are superstars or already have hardware to justify their deals even if they didn't improve substantially.

    I'm not trying to say that production doesn't matter at all. The lack of production is why we aren't debate a max extension for Murray instead of $13M or $25M per year. But I believe young players are usually signed more off narrative than anything else. Murray's narrative is stronger than his NBA history (something for which he's gotten praise and criticism on this board for years now). I think his actual value to the Spurs is higher than PGs who've changed teams this year because their previous clubs didn't seem to want them badly enough. In that same way, Jamal Murray and Pascal Siakam both got maxes more because their teams did well last year than because those guys put up elite statistical production.

    I think the best comp for a Murray extension might be Aaron Gordon. He had a strong narrative going for him despite not having a lot of production (13/5/2 with negative impact stats on a TS% of 53). The Magic gave him a $76M/4 deal. Under a 2020 cap, that projects to be around $86M/4. Schoder's extension in today's money is $82M/4. I'd be okay with Murray getting something like that on an extension, because even he he doesn't live up to it, it wouldn't be a horrible deal to have lying around. I'd be elated if you were correct, because that might be the best extension since Curry's. And I'm not all that bullish on DJM, but I can't ride with the idea that he should be content signed a long-term deal with the same APY as Danny Green.
    If a contract that lessens over time is possible, like Aaron Gordon’s, I feel like that would be the best option. Something that starts off at maybe $21 million and decreases over 3-4 years to somewhere around $18. It would be tremendously helpful going forward.

  9. #34
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    You had some pretty good points but I just went back and looked at every rookie extension ever signed and I don't see an example of which you speak. Do you have an example of a player who signed a rookie extension based mostly on their potential rather than their actual production? I don't see any big paydays for a player like Murray with such a short resume. Perhaps I'm missing someone.

    Maybe Murray bets on himself and holds out for $20+ million this offseason. It could certainly pay off for him. But given the question marks that remain, I'm not sure the Spurs can justify signing him right now to anything over about $17 million. If they're not completely confident in his knee, they probably will prefer to wait it out and see what happens.

    I think ~$15 million makes a lot of sense as a compromise. Murray is set for life and cashes in on a large percentage of his potential, the Spurs get a young building block. Guess we'll find out soon enough.
    The one I thought of right away was Andrew Wiggions. I think they overpaid for wiggins even at that time but he was paid on showing some promise and what he could do in the future.
    Another one although I dont think they agreed to a deal would be Jabri Parker. They were willing to do 18 mil a year. He had injuries issues as well. https://nba.nbcsports.com/2018/02/13...lion-annually/.
    Salary cap has gone up so I could see Murray starting slightly higher.
    Someone mentioned Schroder as a comp (although different players). Which to me is not bad but once again cap has gone up. I also think Murray will be better as he has better Defense and his offense is coming around.

  10. #35
    Veteran monty4329's Avatar
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    I am not so high on DJM but he is a must sign. Even at 23/yr.

    Who else can we sign next summer for the same money at the same production level? Especially if we don't make the PO this time.
    I guess the only if, and is a big IF, is his health: can he play a full year without an injury (slowdown)?

  11. #36
    R.C. Deez Nuts. Mugen's Avatar
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    Doubt it, RC's probably emptying the piggy bank to max Derozan. Those 3 threes in a meaningless preseason game probably got Demar a no trade clause too tbh

  12. #37
    The St. Croix Boy duncan2k5's Avatar
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    DJ is my favorite player, but I think he is too p ive... And I think that p iveness comes from being on a team with two ball dominant players that have a history of pouting when they don't get their way on the court... So there are times when I feel he (white also) could get aggressive off a pick and roll (or some favorable matchups) , but wait for DDR or LMA to give them the ball...

    What happens is that teams will then not guard u hard in those situations knowing u have a tendency to defer... And this stalls the offense because the player then has to counteract with aggression, but because they aren't accustomed, they take awkward or dumb shots
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  13. #38
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    Will China cause cap to decrease next year

  14. #39
    what uganda do about it? Joseph Kony's Avatar
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    Doubt it, RC's probably emptying the piggy bank to max Derozan. Those 3 threes in a meaningless preseason game probably got Demar a no trade clause too tbh
    spurs and him have like 1 more day to agree on an extension...we'll find out soon enough tbh
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  15. #40
    R.C. Deez Nuts. Mugen's Avatar
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    Also @ anybody who thinks Klutch is going to give the Spurs some kind of discount. Wouldn't be surprised if Paul asks for a crazy number and uses the Spurs' refusal to make sure Instagram wants to walk next summer.

  16. #41
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
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    Maybe LeBroom wants him in LA after Rondo's gone and so Klutch isn't talking extension
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  17. #42
    5. timvp's Avatar
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    I think the best comp for a Murray extension might be Aaron Gordon. He had a strong narrative going for him despite not having a lot of production (13/5/2 with negative impact stats on a TS% of 53). The Magic gave him a $76M/4 deal. Under a 2020 cap, that projects to be around $86M/4.
    You're mistaken regarding which year Gordon got his contract. He got his $76 million, 4-year deal after he averaged 18, 8 and 2. While we can argue about his actual value, Gordon was already a really productive basketball player prior to getting that contract ... certainly much more productive than Murray at any point.

    Besides, I don't see the Aaron Gordon comp. Gordon was a fourth overall draft pick, had skills that would make him valuable on the open market, had real statistical production and was already a proven starter. Murray is pretty much the opposite: end of the first round pick, his proven skills aren't really that coveted these days, has only iffy statistical production to point to and isn't yet a proven starter.

    Schoder's extension in today's money is $82M/4.
    I wouldn't inflate Schroder's money. He signed that in the crazy summer of 2016 when everyone was getting paid due to the salary cap e (Mozgov and Mahinmi $64 million, Noah $80 million, Parsons $100 or whatever it was ). I think Schroder is a good comp otherwise. At the time, he was regarded as perhaps the best backup point guard in the league and was thought to be Atlanta's future starting point guard. But, again, that was such an anomaly of a summer contract-wise that it's difficult to say what it'd translate to in today's league. In my opinion, it's safe to say it'd translate to less money today.

    The Magic gave him a $76M/4 deal. Under a 2020 cap, that projects to be around $86M/4. Schoder's extension in today's money is $82M/4. I'd be okay with Murray getting something like that on an extension
    And I'm not all that bullish on DJM
    You're okay with Murray making $21.5 million a year but you're not that bullish on him? You must think he's already very good or see the market much differently than I do. Personally, as much as I'm hopeful for DJ, I'm not yet convinced he's a long-term starter. Hold a gun to my head and, from what we've seen, I say Derrick White has the better NBA career. I'm hopeful Murray will blossom and the preseason points to him getting better but I still have questions.

    I think there's a very real chance Murray averages something like 11, 6 and 4 this season. Even uming elite defense, I don't think that would net him much higher than ~$15-16 million as a restricted free agent next summer. He'd have to make a leap higher than that to get into that Brogdon range of $21+ million.

    Part of my reasoning is the things Murray is good at (defense, rebounding, penetration) isn't coveted much these days. Teams want guards that can shoot. If Murray doesn't take a big leap forward shooting-wise, I just don't see a team breaking the bank for him.

    Granted, Murray is such a blank slate right now that it's difficult to know what to expect. There's a legitimate chance that he emerges as a max level player. If that's the case, it'd be great news for the Spurs and I'd be happy when they pay him next summer. As it is, though, I wouldn't be willing to go much higher than $15 million because it's not clear if he'll even have a Patrick Beverley type career.

    In that same way, Jamal Murray and Pascal Siakam both got maxes more because their teams did well last year than because those guys put up elite statistical production.
    You haven't seen an example where a player's second contract was paid with the umption that the player would "grow into it?" I think if that's true it's missing the trees for the forest. I think our whole perception of what makes a "fair" second contract already includes the bump for potential. Like Wiggins was maxed because Minny thought he would eventually become a non-negative player. Jamal Murray was maxed out because the Nuggets believe he'll go from solidly above average to being a legit star. Not every second deal is like Jokic, Derrick Rose or Kawhi where guys are superstars or already have hardware to justify their deals even if they didn't improve substantially.
    Eh, Siakam had elite statistical production, whether you look at counting stats or advanced stats. I can't argue with him earning the max. He was better than Neph for a stretch of the regular season last year and was pretty damn great in the playoffs, too.

    Wiggins was a number one overall pick who scored a lot of points but then stopped working after he got paid. Hard to compare that to Dejounte's situation.

    Jamal Murray is a bit of a speculative max, I can agree there, but then again he averaged 18, 5 and 4 as a 22-year-old last year. It's not much of a stretch to imagine him as a legit max player. He bumps that up to 20, 6 and 5 and the Nuggets are pretty happy with that investment.

    Dejounte Murray is a different type of speculation. I just don't see a comp that could push his value much p ed $15 million right now. I have to factor in Pop's praise and a lot of hype to even get to $15 million, to be honest.

    Dante Exum might actually be the best comp the more I think about it due to his mixture of hype and injury concern. Murray has been better than Exum ever was ... but Exum only got $11 million per year, so I don't think that nudges Murray much higher than $15 million.

    The lack of production is why we aren't debate a max extension for Murray instead of $13M or $25M per year. But I believe young players are usually signed more off narrative than anything else. Murray's narrative is stronger than his NBA history (something for which he's gotten praise and criticism on this board for years now). I think his actual value to the Spurs is higher than PGs who've changed teams this year because their previous clubs didn't seem to want them badly enough.
    The argument is that the narrative with Murray is just because Pop has talked about how high he is on him. We're excited because Pop thinks he'll be good. That's about the extent of the narrative. Nationally, if Pop wouldn't have spoken about Murray's potential, he'd be somewhat of an unknown. The only thing that would stop him from being a complete unknown is his All-Defensive selection two years ago.

    And to be fair to Rozier, the Celtics allowed him to walk because they had Kyrie in front of him and now Kemba. They'd allow Dejounte to walk too if he was behind a star. Brogdon was let go because they had already invested $70 million in a point guard (Bledsoe). If they had to do it over again, they go with Brogdon -- especially after how Bledsoe melted down in the playoffs.

  18. #43
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    I'm seeing all these comments about people's per game averages, as if this is '99 or something. Since they're mostly context reliant, they're rendered largely irrelevant. If they weren't, the likes of Aldridge and DeRozan would be more valued leaguewide than they are. Spurs fans of all people should know this.

    What the Spurs should be looking for from Murray, is whether he can be a driver of neutral or greater offense. 3-point volume/%, ist %, ist/turnover ratio, OBPM, ORPM, on/off, these are the numbers people should be focused on.

    I don't think the Klutch representation helps or hurts much. If anything, after Marcus Morris debacle, Murray getting an extension with the Spurs probably helps Klutch regain trust with players and teams.

    Don't love the LeVert comp because LeVert is a scorer and a shooting guard, two characteristics that are still rewarded highly. Defense-first point guards are on the other end of the spectrum.
    No, I mean they're known to drive a hard bargain.

    I know, but he's an inefficient scorer. Give the former the latter's minutes/usage combination and he'd probably average a similar amount.
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  19. #44
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Time limit?
    Any reason they can't wait till mid season to see how Murray is doing?

    For that a matter any offer can be matched next season. Seems prudent to wait at least a half a season to see how Murray is doing.
    So it costs more at that point. So what. Better to buy proven commodity then overpay for unproven commodity now.

  20. #45
    Believe. MultiTroll's Avatar
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    Part of my reasoning is the things Murray is good at (defense, rebounding, penetration) isn't coveted much these days.
    Todays NBA.

    Intresting to see if Coach Tim Duncan will have any influence in bringing real hoop back.
    Last edited by MultiTroll; 4 Weeks Ago at 06:20 PM.

  21. #46
    Veteran tbdog's Avatar
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    Time limit?
    Any reason they can't wait till mid season to see how Murray is doing?

    For that a matter any offer can be matched next season. Seems prudent to wait at least a half a season to see how Murray is doing.
    So it costs more at that point. So what. Better to buy proven commodity then overpay for unproven commodity now.
    In theory, it's best for both parties to get a deal done now. But not the end of the world. Leonard and Spurs didn't agree until the following off-season.

    But that was more to do with creating space for LMA.

  22. #47
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    Time limit?
    Any reason they can't wait till mid season to see how Murray is doing?

    For that a matter any offer can be matched next season. Seems prudent to wait at least a half a season to see how Murray is doing.
    So it costs more at that point. So what. Better to buy proven commodity then overpay for unproven commodity now.
    If they dont get it done now they have to wait till next off season. Yes you would have a known commodity then but also if he plays well a more expensive commodity.

  23. #48
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    You're mistaken regarding which year Gordon got his contract. He got his $76 million, 4-year deal after he averaged 18, 8 and 2. While we can argue about his actual value, Gordon was already a really productive basketball player prior to getting that contract ... certainly much more productive than Murray at any point.

    Besides, I don't see the Aaron Gordon comp. Gordon was a fourth overall draft pick, had skills that would make him valuable on the open market, had real statistical production and was already a proven starter. Murray is pretty much the opposite: end of the first round pick, his proven skills aren't really that coveted these days, has only iffy statistical production to point to and isn't yet a proven starter
    You're right about Gordon. I thought he has signed an extension. That said, I don't think they're situations are very different at all. Gordon wasn't even rumored to be look at offer sheets, so I don't see his contract as being particularly market-driven.

    I wouldn't inflate Schroder's money. He signed that in the crazy summer of 2016 when everyone was getting paid due to the salary cap e (Mozgov and Mahinmi $64 million, Noah $80 million, Parsons $100 or whatever it was ). I think Schroder is a good comp otherwise. At the time, he was regarded as perhaps the best backup point guard in the league and was thought to be Atlanta's future starting point guard. But, again, that was such an anomaly of a summer contract-wise that it's difficult to say what it'd translate to in today's league. In my opinion, it's safe to say it'd translate to less money today.
    I'd inflate that money. Both Murray and Schoder have the same narrative going for them. Dennis got starting PG money. He is yet another example of guys getting extensions based on what they're projected to be rather than just what they are.

    You're okay with Murray making $21.5 million a year but you're not that bullish on him? You must think he's already very good or see the market much differently than I do.
    Yeah, that's sort of what I mean. I don't believe the market works the way you seem to think it does. I don't think there's anything wrong with the Spurs seeing things how you see them. It makes sense to not give Murray more than proven PGs got given he hasn't shown yet that he's better than them. But how is that "fair" from Murray's point of view? Does it really make sense for him to agree to a deal when his value is at it's nadir? Not really. If he's truly concerned about his health and long-term security, then I'd certainly understand giving a lot back to make it work. But outside of another injury, I have a hard time seeing him getting less than $12 Million or so if he waits, no matter how badly he plays.

    Part of my reasoning is the things Murray is good at (defense, rebounding, penetration) isn't coveted much these days. Teams want guards that can shoot. If Murray doesn't take a big leap forward shooting-wise, I just don't see a team breaking the bank for him.
    I think teams want guys PATFO covets. It'll be one thing if the Spurs stop marketing Murray as a future star and start to bench him. But as long as they go into the off-season of 2020 trying to bring him back, he'll have suitors.

    Anyways, we'll probably have to agree to disagree on what "breaking the bank" is. We are talking about two or three tiers lower than the max here.

    --Comps--
    In truncated that to save some space.

    I don't have an issue with Siakam's contract. I do think that it'd be hard to see his 2018-2019 production truly being worth his contract if he doesn't get any better than he is now. 17/7/3 isn't worth $32 Million a year. There was speculation and there was narrative, given his importance to Ujuri and the need for the Raptors to maintain a future after Leonard left. You can make a really strong argument for waiting until next summer to see how Pascal progressed. Two years of production with the second being minus Leonard's and Green's gravity would take out most of the speculation.

    It's not hard to compare Wiggins' situation at all. He was paid under the umption that he'd get better, and he didn't. His contract never looked great, but there was a chance Wiggins could have fixed his issues and not become a top-three worst contract in the league.

    I don't think they'd be too happy with less-than-DeRozan production at $34 Million a year. I don't think many folks blame them for doing it. But it was all downside with the best-case scenario pretty much being getting your money back.

    Dejounte Murray is a different type of speculation. I just don't see a comp that could push his value much p ed $15 million right now. I have to factor in Pop's praise and a lot of hype to even get to $15 million, to be honest.
    I understand where you're coming from, but that doesn't make it a good deal for Murray. I think the real answer here is an extension doesn't make sense for either side unless the other gives in a lot to make it happen. The Spurs shouldn't pay Murray as if he's already a great bet, and Murray shouldn't lock himself into a deal that umes he's not going to have a very good year. Maybe one side will end up regretting not getting an extension done.

    Dante Exum might actually be the best comp the more I think about it due to his mixture of hype and injury concern. Murray has been better than Exum ever was ... but Exum only got $11 million per year, so I don't think that nudges Murray much higher than $15 million
    Exum's a terrible comp. He certainly started off with the hype, but he was a walking injury issue, and even be the time he got his extension very few folks believed in him. He had an anti-narrative going for him. Best guy in your corner is probably Winslow, since he got less than $15M and got his extension based more on narrative than production.

    The argument is that the narrative with Murray is just because Pop has talked about how high he is on him. We're excited because Pop thinks he'll be good. That's about the extent of the narrative. Nationally, if Pop wouldn't have spoken about Murray's potential, he'd be somewhat of an unknown. The only thing that would stop him from being a complete unknown is his All-Defensive selection two years ago.
    Can't ride with that. It's not simply Pop carrying that hype train. You're correct that Pop's comments sparked the chatter, but since then, the national media has caught on. It doesn't hurt that Murray's had a number of his best games on national television. It also only helps DJM's stock how Pop treated him after the injury. If Murray comes out and is just a little bit better than he was before, but a lot more consistent? The train is not going to stop. And maybe it shouldn't, because we're talking about a two-time All-Defensive player how has a consistent offensive game, an intriguing physical profile and Pop's stamp of approval? It's not a struggle at all to get him over $15 Million a year.

    And to be fair to Rozier, the Celtics allowed him to walk because they had Kyrie in front of him and now Kemba. They'd allow Dejounte to walk too if he was behind a star. Brogdon was let go because they had already invested $70 million in a point guard (Bledsoe). If they had to do it over again, they go with Brogdon -- especially after how Bledsoe melted down in the playoffs.
    Do you think the Spurs are going to let Murray walk? I just don't see it. Rozier and the Celtics were on the outs before free agency. They just weren't going to keep him. The Bucks could have traded Bledsoe but simply valued him and Mids more highly. It's not like EB lose all his value just because he didn't perform well in the playoffs. Brogdon's injury history played a big role in his value, both to MKE and on the market. That's why the only thing that would really torpedo DJM's value is another injury. ACL injuries no long really carry a stigma like Achilles injuries do. Brogdon has had lingering injuries that have had him miss chunks of multiple seasons. It's a bigger concern for him. Healthy and a few years younger, he'd've gotten quite a bit more -- and MKE would have probably matched.

  24. #49
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    You're right about Gordon. I thought he has signed an extension. That said, I don't think they're situations are very different at all. Gordon wasn't even rumored to be look at offer sheets, so I don't see his contract as being particularly market-driven.



    I'd inflate that money. Both Murray and Schoder have the same narrative going for them. Dennis got starting PG money. He is yet another example of guys getting extensions based on what they're projected to be rather than just what they are.



    Yeah, that's sort of what I mean. I don't believe the market works the way you seem to think it does. I don't think there's anything wrong with the Spurs seeing things how you see them. It makes sense to not give Murray more than proven PGs got given he hasn't shown yet that he's better than them. But how is that "fair" from Murray's point of view? Does it really make sense for him to agree to a deal when his value is at it's nadir? Not really. If he's truly concerned about his health and long-term security, then I'd certainly understand giving a lot back to make it work. But outside of another injury, I have a hard time seeing him getting less than $12 Million or so if he waits, no matter how badly he plays.



    I think teams want guys PATFO covets. It'll be one thing if the Spurs stop marketing Murray as a future star and start to bench him. But as long as they go into the off-season of 2020 trying to bring him back, he'll have suitors.

    Anyways, we'll probably have to agree to disagree on what "breaking the bank" is. We are talking about two or three tiers lower than the max here.



    In truncated that to save some space.

    I don't have an issue with Siakam's contract. I do think that it'd be hard to see his 2018-2019 production truly being worth his contract if he doesn't get any better than he is now. 17/7/3 isn't worth $32 Million a year. There was speculation and there was narrative, given his importance to Ujuri and the need for the Raptors to maintain a future after Leonard left. You can make a really strong argument for waiting until next summer to see how Pascal progressed. Two years of production with the second being minus Leonard's and Green's gravity would take out most of the speculation.

    It's not hard to compare Wiggins' situation at all. He was paid under the umption that he'd get better, and he didn't. His contract never looked great, but there was a chance Wiggins could have fixed his issues and not become a top-three worst contract in the league.

    I don't think they'd be too happy with less-than-DeRozan production at $34 Million a year. I don't think many folks blame them for doing it. But it was all downside with the best-case scenario pretty much being getting your money back.



    I understand where you're coming from, but that doesn't make it a good deal for Murray. I think the real answer here is an extension doesn't make sense for either side unless the other gives in a lot to make it happen. The Spurs shouldn't pay Murray as if he's already a great bet, and Murray shouldn't lock himself into a deal that umes he's not going to have a very good year. Maybe one side will end up regretting not getting an extension done.



    Exum's a terrible comp. He certainly started off with the hype, but he was a walking injury issue, and even be the time he got his extension very few folks believed in him. He had an anti-narrative going for him. Best guy in your corner is probably Winslow, since he got less than $15M and got his extension based more on narrative than production.



    Can't ride with that. It's not simply Pop carrying that hype train. You're correct that Pop's comments sparked the chatter, but since then, the national media has caught on. It doesn't hurt that Murray's had a number of his best games on national television. It also only helps DJM's stock how Pop treated him after the injury. If Murray comes out and is just a little bit better than he was before, but a lot more consistent? The train is not going to stop. And maybe it shouldn't, because we're talking about a two-time All-Defensive player how has a consistent offensive game, an intriguing physical profile and Pop's stamp of approval? It's not a struggle at all to get him over $15 Million a year.



    Do you think the Spurs are going to let Murray walk? I just don't see it. Rozier and the Celtics were on the outs before free agency. They just weren't going to keep him. The Bucks could have traded Bledsoe but simply valued him and Mids more highly. It's not like EB lose all his value just because he didn't perform well in the playoffs. Brogdon's injury history played a big role in his value, both to MKE and on the market. That's why the only thing that would really torpedo DJM's value is another injury. ACL injuries no long really carry a stigma like Achilles injuries do. Brogdon has had lingering injuries that have had him miss chunks of multiple seasons. It's a bigger concern for him. Healthy and a few years younger, he'd've gotten quite a bit more -- and MKE would have probably matched.
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    I understand where you're coming from, but that doesn't make it a good deal for Murray. I think the real answer here is an extension doesn't make sense for either side unless the other gives in a lot to make it happen. The Spurs shouldn't pay Murray as if he's already a great bet, and Murray shouldn't lock himself into a deal that umes he's not going to have a very good year. Maybe one side will end up regretting not getting an extension done.
    That looks like where we will have to agree to meet. Good talk

    The way I see it, Murray's range is somewhere between $5 million if he underperforms and $25 million if he overperforms. If he has an average season, he's looking at something between $12 million and $17 million. If he gets injured, he's looking at a contract near the minimum. Murray and his team will have to do the math, balance their risks and see if it makes sense for him to take $15 million now. I don't offer much more than that if I'm the Spurs. If I'm Murray, that's enough to tempt me ... but, yeah, if he wants to bet on himself, he could opt to gamble to get the $40 million he'd potentially be leaving on the table.

    We'll see what happens.

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