Why Pop's new starting lineup is disastrous in the short-term and long-term

[Chinook]

How many other players on the roster does that describe?

Not nearly as many as I think you believe. There's a difference between hoping a guy get back to playing well consistently and hoping a guy who's never played well consistently all of the sudden takes the next step. No, you're not going to bench LMA and DMDR if you're trying to tank or win now. But you can definitely bench a guard with a bad mix of over-aggression in his drives and reluctance to shoot threes. People have to stop thinking of Murray as if he's some young prospect. He's 24 and is in his fourth year. Yes, he can still get better, but it's past the point where you just assume he will. One can't keep making excuses for why he and even White aren't ready to go most of the time. I'm really not saying to trade them or move on, but they aren't the future. The future isn't on the roster now. Maybe they can be part of that future, but they aren't playing well enough to bend over backwards for them.

They need to play better, and it needs to stop being everyone else's faults why that isn't happening. This isn't a sniffing take. I haven't been happy with Pop as an exec or a coach for the past couple years. I think it's clear that the USANT run cost the Spurs heavily this year, and if Pop is the coach next year, it's going to happen again. I do think it can and probably will get better without major changes, but I also think he could do some obvious stuff to fix it and he probably won't do any of them for way too long. All that said, no one is playing well enough to demand more minutes except maybe Carroll. I like you would like the team to go one way or the other. I just don't think either way makes more sense than the other right now. Either use the youth to bring in the players needed to make the LMA/DMDR duo functional, or move on from them and tank. But what a lot of folks seem to want -- moving one or both of those guys and then building around Murray and White -- just doesn't make sense right now.

[itzsoweezee]

The defense will get there tho, I'm not worried about that. Murray and White on the bench with Belli, Gay, and Lyles is an intriguing line up

That's quite a hot take. The defense has been horrible all year and showing no sign of improvement. Pop makes adjustments that make the defense WORSE. And yet, it will magically become better?

By the way, how many points did the opponent score in the first quarter you're lauding?

[duncan2k5]

Not nearly as many as I think you believe. There's a difference between hoping a guy get back to playing well consistently and hoping a guy who's never played well consistently all of the sudden takes the next step. No, you're not going to bench LMA and DMDR if you're trying to tank or win now. But you can definitely bench a guard with a bad mix of over-aggression in his drives and reluctance to shoot threes. People have to stop thinking of Murray as if he's some young prospect. He's 24 and is in his fourth year. Yes, he can still get better, but it's past the point where you just assume he will. One can't keep making excuses for why he and even White aren't ready to go most of the time. I'm really not saying to trade them or move on, but they aren't the future. The future isn't on the roster now. Maybe they can be part of that future, but they aren't playing well enough to bend over backwards for them.

They need to play better, and it needs to stop being everyone else's faults why that isn't happening. This isn't a sniffing take. I haven't been happy with Pop as an exec or a coach for the past couple years. I think it's clear that the USANT run cost the Spurs heavily this year, and if Pop is the coach next year, it's going to happen again. I do think it can and probably will get better without major changes, but I also think he could do some obvious stuff to fix it and he probably won't do any of them for way too long. All that said, no one is playing well enough to demand more minutes except maybe Carroll. I like you would like the team to go one way or the other. I just don't think either way makes more sense than the other right now. Either use the youth to bring in the players needed to make the LMA/DMDR duo functional, or move on from them and tank. But what a lot of folks seem to want -- moving one or both of those guys and then building around Murray and White -- just doesn't make sense right now.

Murray made 23 two months ago

[SpurPadre]

Murray is 23 NOT 24 and given that he missed a whole year of development, he is definitely still a prospect.

[venitian navigator]

Murray, once given the starting line up, should have started shooting threes at a high rate. He didn't, probably because he's still not confident in his outside shoot and possibly because the first games were part of an easy part of our schedule (that's why he has not been benched before).
But the point is that his fear of shooting in the short period has already had bad consequences...because the guy don't have a great feel for the game (aka play making skills) and his passing ability is more than suspect as is easy to notice by the fact that his assists relies more on his atheticism than on his vision or feeling (sometismes he also misses the pass during counterattack in three against two situations).
The thing Murray has not still realized is that if he don't has an outside shot he becomes a liability...because his lack of playmaking skills and excess of penetration when the defense is set leads to multiple turnovers or bad shots not only for him but also for his teammates (expecially once his teammates are DDR and LMA who are known for not taking threes).
Thats why White was the right solution as a starting point guard...better playmaking, able to shoot from outside and also threes when necessary, slower rythm beneficial to both DDR and LMA for their mid range game...(and why Murray should have started from the bench alonside with three point shooters like Mills, Forbes, Belli and Carroll)

[Arcadian]

I thought he benched Murray just because he's on a minutes restriction and his injury flared up or something. I expect he'll be back in the starting lineup tomorrow.

[duncan2k5]

Murray, once given the starting line up, should have started shooting threes at a high rate. He didn't, probably because he's still not confident in his outside shoot and possibly because the first games were part of an easy part of our schedule (that's why he has not been benched before).
But the point is that his fear of shooting in the short period has already had bad consequences...because the guy don't have a great feel for the game (aka play making skills) and his passing ability is more than suspect as is easy to notice by the fact that his assists relies more on his atheticism than on his vision or feeling (sometismes he also misses the pass during counterattack in three against two situations).
The thing Murray has not still realized is that if he don't has an outside shot he becomes a liability...because his lack of playmaking skills and excess of penetration when the defense is set leads to multiple turnovers or bad shots not only for him but also for his teammates (expecially once his teammates are DDR and LMA who are known for not taking threes).
Thats why White was the right solution as a starting point guard...better playmaking, able to shoot from outside and also threes when necessary, slower rythm beneficial to both DDR and LMA for their mid range game...(and why Murray should have started from the bench alonside with three point shooters like Mills, Forbes, Belli and Carroll)

Murray is significantly better than white... Being able to shoot doesn't automatically make someone better on offense... The chart that shows offensive and defensive contributions to a team has Murray and White pretty much equal on offense and Murray much better than him on defense

[spurs10]

Welcome to Hot Topic. We are having a sale on razorblades over near the my chemical romance tees

My Chemical Romance is too upbeat......Joy Division.

[Shakril]

I have mixed reviews on the Analysis:

Yes Mills for Murray was bad, Mills for Forbes would be OK, but in the End, the Backcourt of DeRozean, Murray and Forbes was ok. The Problem with the Starting Line Up was Lyles.
This is where i disagree with, Poeltl insertion in the Starting Line Up was good. Defense was better with him on the court, DeRozean used many good Screens from Poeltl, and LMA was not forced to play the Rim Protector which he clearly does not like.
Lyles was not Defending. I dont care how many Rebounds he gets, when he is not helping on defense. Poeltl overall is undervalued. His game does not show up in normal stats, but rather in Performance and/Or the +/- Stat. Why? He is a teamplayer. He hustles, he screens and he closes out and does many more things. It is no coincidence that with him on the Court the Team outsocres mostly their opponents. Of course if you put him with a comination of 3 from Mills, Bellineli, Forbes and DeRozean noone can overcame that lack of perimeter defense.

Poeltl was the Sollution, Mills in for Murray is not.

[Chinook]

I thought he benched Murray just because he's on a minutes restriction and his injury flared up or something. I expect he'll be back in the starting lineup tomorrow.

He wanted to stagger Murray and DeRozan and didn't think he could do that while starting both with DJM's restriction. I also expect Murray to start, but I also wanted to point out the issues with OP's reasoning.

[Chinook]

I have mixed reviews on the Analysis:

Yes Mills for Murray was bad, Mills for Forbes would be OK, but in the End, the Backcourt of DeRozean, Murray and Forbes was ok. The Problem with the Starting Line Up was Lyles.
This is where i disagree with, Poeltl insertion in the Starting Line Up was good. Defense was better with him on the court, DeRozean used many good Screens from Poeltl, and LMA was not forced to play the Rim Protector which he clearly does not like.
Lyles was not Defending. I dont care how many Rebounds he gets, when he is not helping on defense. Poeltl overall is undervalued. His game does not show up in normal stats, but rather in Performance and/Or the +/- Stat. Why? He is a teamplayer. He hustles, he screens and he closes out and does many more things. It is no coincidence that with him on the Court the Team outsocres mostly their opponents. Of course if you put him with a comination of 3 from Mills, Bellineli, Forbes and DeRozean noone can overcame that lack of perimeter defense.

Poeltl was the Sollution, Mills in for Murray is not.

They were dependent on each other. Had White been healthy, Lyles would have started. Murray, DeRozan, Aldridge and Poeltl would have been awful spacing. It would just lead to more first-quarter holes and a tier bench to try to dig the team out.

[tbdog]

Murray insertion has actually backfired on the Spurs due to its rotation. I really thought it would make us much better. The starting lineup should be the same as last year, but add Carroll for Poeltl against small teams. Then once Murray is off restrictions and earns it, he replaces Forbes.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Not nearly as many as I think you believe. There's a difference between hoping a guy get back to playing well consistently and hoping a guy who's never played well consistently all of the sudden takes the next step. No, you're not going to bench LMA and DMDR if you're trying to tank or win now. But you can definitely bench a guard with a bad mix of over-aggression in his drives and reluctance to shoot threes. People have to stop thinking of Murray as if he's some young prospect. He's 24 and is in his fourth year. Yes, he can still get better, but it's past the point where you just assume he will. One can't keep making excuses for why he and even White aren't ready to go most of the time. I'm really not saying to trade them or move on, but they aren't the future. The future isn't on the roster now. Maybe they can be part of that future, but they aren't playing well enough to bend over backwards for them.

They need to play better, and it needs to stop being everyone else's faults why that isn't happening. This isn't a sniffing take. I haven't been happy with Pop as an exec or a coach for the past couple years. I think it's clear that the USANT run cost the Spurs heavily this year, and if Pop is the coach next year, it's going to happen again. I do think it can and probably will get better without major changes, but I also think he could do some obvious stuff to fix it and he probably won't do any of them for way too long. All that said, no one is playing well enough to demand more minutes except maybe Carroll. I like you would like the team to go one way or the other. I just don't think either way makes more sense than the other right now. Either use the youth to bring in the players needed to make the LMA/DMDR duo functional, or move on from them and tank. But what a lot of folks seem to want -- moving one or both of those guys and then building around Murray and White -- just doesn't make sense right now.

Murray made the All Defense Team two years ago, and then had to sit out all last season with an injury. He isn't back to where he was two years ago. Isn't that sort of the definition of what you just said, "hoping a guy gets back to playing well consistently"? Talking out of your ass is one thing - talking out of both sides of your ass is another. And don't lecture me about something I never said.

Beli was never that good, and he's not going to get better. Forbes was never that good, and he's not going to get better. Mills...maybe before the injury... but he was never that good since, and he's not going to get better. They aren't getting benched. And here's the thing... getting benched isn't making Murray better. Or Lonnie for that matter. That doesn't mean I think they are going to become All Stars. But if they are going to step up, it's going to happen with floor time.

I never even hinted at benching DDR and Aldridge. But Beli, Bryn, and Patty aren't part of a successful future here.

There are young players all over the league who are no better than Murray and Lonnie (or Keldon Johnson for that matter), who are getting serious minutes and improving from them. You seem to think that playing those guys will make the Spurs lose. They're 5-10 right now, and you're stuck in the past.

[MVPCues]

Have to say, either there’s a deep state to the spurs and they are doing everything they can to fire sale and tank or pop has lost his mind

Subscribed.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Murray is 23 NOT 24 and given that he missed a whole year of development, he is definitely still a prospect.

Chinook doesn't need facts to build an argument. I'm officially giving him a new nickname - Triple A. I'll tell you why later.

I just said this in response to him - if Murray was back to where he was two seasons ago, it would make a world of difference. I'm pretty sure EVERYONE (including Chinook) expected him to be even better last year, since he was clearly improving. The fact is he WAS a young prospect. And still is, unless he just can't make the comeback from his injury. I understand minute restrictions, but put him out there with White and let them stretch.

White was better last year than what he has shown this year. At some point, you have to consider that this show roster and rotations aren't helping. The Spurs played pretty damn good in the first round of the playoffs last year, coming within a hair of pulling off a major upset. Here's a novel idea: try the same starting lineup that did that. You know, just try it.

[RC_Drunkford]

we all knew this line up was garbage as soon as it was announced. No need to read an article to get it

[duncan2k5]

I have mixed reviews on the Analysis:

Yes Mills for Murray was bad, Mills for Forbes would be OK, but in the End, the Backcourt of DeRozean, Murray and Forbes was ok. The Problem with the Starting Line Up was Lyles.
This is where i disagree with, Poeltl insertion in the Starting Line Up was good. Defense was better with him on the court, DeRozean used many good Screens from Poeltl, and LMA was not forced to play the Rim Protector which he clearly does not like.
Lyles was not Defending. I dont care how many Rebounds he gets, when he is not helping on defense. Poeltl overall is undervalued. His game does not show up in normal stats, but rather in Performance and/Or the +/- Stat. Why? He is a teamplayer. He hustles, he screens and he closes out and does many more things. It is no coincidence that with him on the Court the Team outsocres mostly their opponents. Of course if you put him with a comination of 3 from Mills, Bellineli, Forbes and DeRozean noone can overcame that lack of perimeter defense.

Poeltl was the Sollution, Mills in for Murray is not.

I agree

[duncan2k5]

Murray insertion has actually backfired on the Spurs due to its rotation. I really thought it would make us much better. The starting lineup should be the same as last year, but add Carroll for Poeltl against small teams. Then once Murray is off restrictions and earns it, he replaces Forbes.

What do u mean earns it? Murray is better than Forbes

[duncan2k5]

Murray made the All Defense Team two years ago, and then had to sit out all last season with an injury. He isn't back to where he was two years ago. Isn't that sort of the definition of what you just said, "hoping a guy gets back to playing well consistently"? Talking out of your ass is one thing - talking out of both sides of your ass is another. And don't lecture me about something I never said.

Beli was never that good, and he's not going to get better. Forbes was never that good, and he's not going to get better. Mills...maybe before the injury... but he was never that good since, and he's not going to get better. They aren't getting benched. And here's the thing... getting benched isn't making Murray better. Or Lonnie for that matter. That doesn't mean I think they are going to become All Stars. But if they are going to step up, it's going to happen with floor time.

I never even hinted at benching DDR and Aldridge. But Beli, Bryn, and Patty aren't part of a successful future here.

There are young players all over the league who are no better than Murray and Lonnie (or Keldon Johnson for that matter), who are getting serious minutes and improving from them. You seem to think that playing those guys will make the Spurs lose. They're 5-10 right now, and you're stuck in the past.

Get him!

[KobesAchilles]

That's quite a hot take. The defense has been horrible all year and showing no sign of improvement. Pop makes adjustments that make the defense WORSE. And yet, it will magically become better?

By the way, how many points did the opponent score in the first quarter you're lauding?

About the same opponents score every first quarter. The difference is that we weren't behind 12 points this time. Defense is about unity and desire. Get Poetl acclimated again and get Aldridge engaged and we will be fine.
If Forbes and Mills get us off to quick starts and then we sub in Murray and White, if they are who you say they are then we should dominate and get a lead.

[Chinook]

Chinook doesn't need facts to build an argument. I'm officially giving him a new nickname - Triple A. I'll tell you why later.

I just said this in response to him - if Murray was back to where he was two seasons ago, it would make a world of difference. I'm pretty sure EVERYONE (including Chinook) expected him to be even better last year, since he was clearly improving. The fact is he WAS a young prospect. And still is, unless he just can't make the comeback from his injury. I understand minute restrictions, but put him out there with White and let them stretch.

White was better last year than what he has shown this year. At some point, you have to consider that this show roster and rotations aren't helping. The Spurs played pretty damn good in the first round of the playoffs last year, coming within a hair of pulling off a major upset. Here's a novel idea: try the same starting lineup that did that. You know, just try it.

Wut? The same SL last year didn't have Murray starting or playing with White. Unless you mean the preseason one of DJM, DMDR, Gay, LMA and Poeltl.

Anyways, no, Murray wasn't good enough two years ago to be in the same conversation as Aldridge and DeRozan (All-NBAers that same season). Not even close. Even if he totally earned that award (I don't feel like having that fight again) that's still not good enough to be the foundation of a team. The Warriors don't look at their roster and go "well Draymond will carry the team". Green is pretty much a bigger and more actualized version of that season's Murray. Certainly a keeper, but not a franchise guy. You don't clear out the lineup to let Draymond run the show.

I'm not disparaging Murray here. I'd like the team to keep him. But he's not the central figure here. LMA and DMDR are. And if one or especially both are traded, the the return in that deal or more likely the eventual high draft pick is the central figure. Too many people are asking for the Spurs to trade those guys for role-players and no picks. that. If you're moving on from your central guys, rebuild. Let the young guys show they can string together more than a handful of legit good games before treating them like stars.

Also, Beli is like the lowest-hanging fruit out there. No one wants him to play on this board. No reason to strawman folks about that.

[acoelho1]

The Spurs didn’t give Murray all that money if they didn’t believe he was a special talent. Keep in mind that he didn’t even play last year and the organization made it a priority to sign him now even though they could have waited. Some of you have it in for Murray for whatever reason and the bias is clear from your statements. Has Murray been inconsistent, yes...have there been times where he looks dominate, absolutely yes. Also, he’s been on that minutes restriction which is difficult to get into rhythm. Murray is this teams leader and will be going forward. Pops moves have been highly questionable this year and to me the most criminal is not playing Murray & White together and Walker being relegated to the bench.

[Truth4sale$]

Thank you again Timvp for the write up. I agree this lineup was a defensive disaster, not the changes Popovich should have made. It seemed as if he just wanted to try and outscore a team. The losses are more so on Popovich not the players. This team lacks a leader on the floor, and Popovich has maybe 2 out of 17 guys that come close, (Murray and Mills). I think Popovich is expecting LaMarcus and DeRozan to suddenly emerge as leaders but they wont, it's not their personality. It's not a flaw, but they are not the guys who can lead a team into battle. Their games will not suddenly evolve like Brook Lopez.
They are both better secondary options with a true star. I think Popovich wants to challenge some players whom he can still mold (Walker IV) but realizes some are what they are and wont change or will sulk (DeRozan and Lamarcus) and some will simply lose confidence (Forbes). That is why the lineup is what it is. Personally, I want to see Metu, and Walker get a crack and see what they can do. But nobody on the coaching staff will challenge Popovich to suggest such a thought, even the great Timmy Duncan. Wish you were here Ettore Messina. Popovich needs someone to remind him it ain't working without defense.

[SAGirl]

How many other players on the roster does that describe? The difference is, Murray has a chance to become more than he is right now. The others don't. It's not coddling to put him on the floor - that's where he's going to learn. If the extent of Pop's teaching consists of benching players, he really does need to move on.

Are the Spurs in win now mode, or build for the future mode? I think the answer is clearnly "neither". If this is supposed to be win now mode, they are well and truly ed. If this is supposed to be build for the future mode, it may be even worse since their players of the future are mostly on the bench.

Great post Zeus. Sums up part of why this unintended tank is not a good thing the way it’s happening. Some forum posts have given me hope maybe the young players getting the doghouse bc some of these veterans are getting traded out soon and Pop can’t deflate their perceived value cutting their minutes in a youth movement. I am not convinced but have started to have hope there’s perhaps a plan B that’s not apparent. But outside that hope yeah. Doesn’t make sense to continue a losing streak on the back of the veterans with youngins getting the doghouse or demotions.

[SAGirl]

I have mixed reviews on the Analysis:

Yes Mills for Murray was bad, Mills for Forbes would be OK, but in the End, the Backcourt of DeRozean, Murray and Forbes was ok. The Problem with the Starting Line Up was Lyles.
This is where i disagree with, Poeltl insertion in the Starting Line Up was good. Defense was better with him on the court, DeRozean used many good Screens from Poeltl, and LMA was not forced to play the Rim Protector which he clearly does not like.
Lyles was not Defending. I dont care how many Rebounds he gets, when he is not helping on defense. Poeltl overall is undervalued. His game does not show up in normal stats, but rather in Performance and/Or the +/- Stat. Why? He is a teamplayer. He hustles, he screens and he closes out and does many more things. It is no coincidence that with him on the Court the Team outsocres mostly their opponents. Of course if you put him with a comination of 3 from Mills, Bellineli, Forbes and DeRozean noone can overcame that lack of perimeter defense.

Poeltl was the Sollution, Mills in for Murray is not.

Agree 100% with the opinion on Jacob. I thought he was impactful and helped. Like you I still find Lyles suspect. I don’t think he was defending all that well. He’s kind of like Forbes, he tries hard so it doesn’t feel well to criticize him, but neither are starters or good defensive players and for a big to be poor defensively is worse when a little shooting and some D are his reason for starting games.

I do understand the lack of spacing with Jakob (that lineup with him and LMA starting couldn’t score well enough to avoid slow starts in preseason). It’s an indictment on the rest of his teammates (and the FO for roster construction) and not on Jakob. I think the team needs athletes with size around Derozan and Forbes and Mills aren’t it.