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Youch. Thanks again, Kawhitter.
https://hoopshype.com/2019/11/27/dem...n-trade-value/
Last week, the 2019-20 San Antonio Spurs earned the dubious distinction of becoming the first Gregg Popovich-led team to lose eight games in a row. And although they finally got off the schneid on Saturday, they wound up dropping their next game against the Los Angeles Lakers, giving them nine losses in 10 games, a 6-12 record and the league’s 10th-worst net rating.
San Antonio’s slow start has led many to quietly begin to wonder if the Spurs might consider changing things up in the form of a deal. The two likeliest trade candidates are their two highest-paid players, DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge, simply because it wouldn’t make much sense for the Spurs to ship out any of their promising young talents who are on cheap contracts, especially since it looks like this is a rebuilding season for the club.
For the purposes of today’s article, we focused on what DeRozan’s trade value might look like if San Antonio did start shopping him and asked several executives for their input.
On the year, DeRozan is averaging 22.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists per contest while shooting 53.3 percent from the floor and 82.7 percent from the foul stripe. The advanced numbers may not like him much (and that’s putting it kindly, as DeRozan doesn’t rank higher than 100th in any of Box Plus/Minus, Value Over Replacement Player or Win Shares per 48 minutes), but he’s just one of 11 players putting up a 22/5/4 stat line this year, along with elite talents like LeBron James, Luka Doncic, James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Surely, then, a team lacking scoring and playmaking on the perimeter would be interested in acquiring DeRozan if he were to be put up on the trade block… right?
It’s not so clear.
“It’s a difficult valuation,” one Western Conference executive told HoopsHype. “You’d think that any team that trades for him either has plenty of three-point shooting elsewhere or they’re desperate for a player who can create his own shot. I’m not sure off the top of my head which team makes sense as a suitor.”
Perhaps a team like the Orlando Magic, who rank 11th in defensive rating but dead last in offensive rating, would make sense as a potential DeRozan suitor.
According to Synergy, the 10-year veteran presently ranks in the 72nd percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer, 86th percentile as an iso scorer and 87th percentile in scoring out of the post. The Magic’s ranks in those three play-types as a team? Out of the pick-and-roll, Orlando scorers rank 15th in the NBA in production, 27th in isolation scoring and 25th in post-up scoring.
DeRozan would give the Magic offense a huge boost, one that it desperately needs.
And, for what it’s worth, Orlando has reportedly expressed some interest in DeRozan. One of the executives who spoke to HoopsHype said that they’ve also heard the DeRozan-to-Orlando rumblings, while another mentioned both the Magic and the Sacramento Kings as sensible suitors for the All-Star 2-guard: “A landing spot for DeRozan is probably a team that badly wants to make the playoffs and, right now, they’re in the 7-to-10 range in their conference. The Magic, the Kings and other teams like that would make sense. What the Spurs could get back really depends on if they’re willing to take back money in the deal.”
Other teams mentioned by league execs as theoretical landing spots for DeRozan include the Houston Rockets, the Detroit Pistons and even… his former team.
“It sounds crazy, but Toronto actually makes a lot of sense as a landing spot for DeRozan,” another Western Conference executive said. “As far as what Toronto would have to give up, it would probably have to be a first-round pick plus Serge Ibaka or Marc Gasol.”
That theory might seem far-fetched but with DeRozan cast as the team’s third fiddle behind Pascal Siakam and Kyle Lowry, and surrounded by the Raptors’ other promising young pieces like Fred VanVleet, his second go-around with Toronto could go even better than the first.
Of course, we would be remiss not to mention DeRozan’s enormous contract, which has an uncertain future, as a potential stumbling block in trade talks.
That same Western Conference exec shared the following on how teams view DeRozan’s deal: “With a player option next year, the team that’s trading for him has to be comfortable with him potentially leaving a couple months later, or having to re-sign him to a new long-term deal. Maybe this turns into an opt-in-and-trade scenario, so there’s more security for the team and they know what they’re trading for contractually.”
DeRozan’s contract pays him $27.7 million both this season and in 2020-21, with the latter campaign containing a player option, meaning that whichever team does theoretically acquire him would do so without knowing whether he’ll be on their roster next season.
One NBA executive pointed out that perhaps an extend-and-trade involving DeRozan would benefit all parties involved: “He wants an extension, so maybe we see an extend-and-trade. As for how much he’d get, the extension can’t go above 105 percent of his current contract. But maybe that’s a possibility.”
But the concern is stymied a bit by the fact that it likely wouldn’t cost a team all that much to land DeRozan, not with a contract that hefty for a player in his 30s.
“I don’t think DeRozan or Aldridge are worthy of getting two assets back in return,” another Western Conference executive said.
Would a single protected first-round pick not be worth it for a couple of years of DeRozan, particularly for an offense-needy team fighting to make the playoffs?
If the Spurs’ struggles continue, we may get a better idea of San Antonio’s asking price and whether teams are willing to meet it based on how they perceive DeRozan and his contract situation.
HoopsHype’s Alex Kennedy contributed to this article.
Youch. Thanks again, Kawhitter.
I'm back and forth on trading Derozan. Stat wise he's the Spurs best player offensively overall. He's not a threat from downtown though and the Spurs could really use an efficient three point shooter. On defense he sucks almost every game he plays except a few here and there, but even then it's not much to brag about.
If the Spurs are going to trade him they really need to try to trade him to Orlando. If Orlando wants more scoring then Derozan can provide that for them. I'd only do it if the Magic are willing to give up Gordon and Ross or Ross and Fournier. If the Spurs can include Belinelli and acquire Bamba as well then even better.
I'd rather trade Aldridge to be honest, but his value sucks. Some seem to think that Boston really needs help in the frontcourt and Aldridge could provide that help. A package of Hayward and Williams III for Aldridge and Belinelli would be nice. Not sure Boston would do that.
He needs to be gone, the sooner, the better. He can't be on the same floor with Murray and he is the textbook definition of empty calories with his numbers. Can anyone seriously tell me they want to max this bum out this summer? The Spurs aren't even trying to teach him to shoot the three so what we see now is as good as it will ever get from him now on the wrong side of 30. If the Spurs can get any useful asset out of trading him I'll be happy.
Time to clean house--our "stars" are a couple of pussy cats--we need dogs on this team--get rid of the vets go with the young ppups
"The advanced numbers may not like him much (and that’s putting it kindly, as DeRozan doesn’t rank higher than 100th in any of Box Plus/Minus, Value Over Replacement Player or Win Shares per 48 minutes), but he’s just one of 11 players putting up a 22/5/4 stat line this year, along with elite talents like LeBron James, Luka Doncic, James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo."
There might be a handful of people here who understand the limitations of those particular advanced stats. I'm not going to write a paper on it, but they are all "adjusted to an average team". As if you could define an "average" team with a single style of play, pace, etc. DeMar's downside is defense (obviously). Even his turnovers (Per 36 or Per 100 possessions) are the same as LeBron this year, and less for his career. Put DeRozan on a team that plays respectable defense, without being on the court with the worst defender in the league most of the time, and his numbers don't look as bad.
Don't believe me? Go back and look at the DRTG of some of the players the Spurs had back in the Defensive Days. For some reason, they look much better when they're playing with a defensive group. I know the advanced stat zombies will howl like banshees, but the truth is that you can't use them blindly. Well... you can use them blindly, because they do it all the time. But you look stupid doing it.
Maybe some advanced stat zombies want to explain how DDR's DBPM went from 0.5 last year to -1.9 this year. Or how his DBPM went from -1.5 to -.9 in his last two years in Toronto. But I'll give you a hint - it isn't because he changed that much. It's the stat, stupid. The stat reflects the team as well as the individual. Put DDR on a team with some 3P shooters, especially if they don't have Forbes and Beli as defensive albatrosses, and he's got value.
"Would a single protected first-round pick not be worth it for a couple of years of DeRozan?"
I am really, really getting sick of "protected first-round picks" being looked at as if they are an actual asset, like a player. A lot of them never convey. It seems to me that happens more all the time. These execs make a trade, and get patted on the back for getting a first round pick - but nobody comes back when it turns out that what they actually get is a second rounder that is often not even very good. So that question of whether a protected first would be worth it is sort of stupid. If the pick is protected to the point that it isn't reasonably going to convey, it's not really even a first round pick. (And that doesn't even count the fact that teams often tank intentionally to keep their pick.)
Would you trade both in those scenarios? Lma to Bostom and DDR to Orlando? I've been in favor of trading one or the other but a team featuring Murray, Fournier or Ross, Hayward, Gordon, and Poeltl would be more interesting than what we are putting out there now.
Why not? Derozan is more than likely gone after this season and I don't see Aldridge improving.
I think I'm coming around to your way of thinking on this...
I think if we're not going to start winning games then I'd look to trade DeRozan, but not just for anybody. He has value and it has to be a winner deal for us otherwise he can continue to contribute here. Orlando is the perfect fit for him and if they're serious about bringing an all star caliber scorer then they need to compensate us well. He's everything that team is lacking right now. What I wouldn't do is just dump his salary for the sake of getting him off the team. And I think the Spurs value him and are smart enough not to do that. I'd want Gordon/Ross or Fournier/Bamba at the very least if I was giving up DeRozan and one other player.
It sucks that both of these guys aren't doing anything to really help this team and it seems like it's having an effect on the younger guys so maybe, just maybe it's best to move them.
I definitely think its stunting Murray. To me, he needs to have more shooting around him so he can develop properly. In addition, a LMA DDR lineup is just boring. If we could pull off those two trades we could play faster (which helps Murray too) and would have more 3 pt shooting. That would be much more enjoyable to watch.
As an arm chair GM, I think it’s a no brainer to try and trade LMA right now. He seems like he has more trade value ALTHOUGH he’s doing less on this team than Demar. In my non professional opinion, trading Aldridge is as close to a win-win as you can get in this situation. I can’t see Demar netting much based on this article and other things I’ve read over the past few weeks since this rumor has begun.
I think Orlando and Sacramento have some interesting assets for DeRozan and need to change some players.
Harrison Barnes is a guy that does not meet the expectations in Sacramento with a huge contract and Bogdanovic is another guy that will leave this team soon. Barnes cannot be traded until Dec 15.
Orlando with Gordon, Fornier and Aminu after Dec 15 could be options to SA.
Miami with Dragic and Winslow for Aldridge and a Guard.
I think Spurs need to trade some young players with DeRozan or Aldridge if they want good players.
We will lose DW, DJM or Lonnie in a trade.
I think for the most part mostly everyone agrees that if you're going to trade one or both you have to include Belinelli and Forbes in the trade.
Aldridge to Portland for Nurkic + first rounder
Derozan to Magic for Bamba + Fournier or Ross
Yes please.
Out: DDR (ORL); LMA (BOS); filler
In: Gordon; Bamba; Hayward; BOS late 1st
Murray
Lonnie
Hayward
Gordon
Jakob
Plus, I think it’s easier to reflip/reroute Hayward than it is to move DDR as a backup plan
Goran Dragic would mean less Murray and I'm not sure I wanna give up on Murray. Only players I would be interested in are Adebayo and Winslow.
I would love Bogdanovic, but Barnes' contract is horrible. However, Barnes fits today's NBA game so it's not so bad. I wouldn't mind moving Aldridge and Belinelli for Barnes and Bogdanovic. Maybe move Derozan for Barnes and Bogdanovic b
Yes, Belli but why Forbes? His deal is so cheap to really have an impact as “filler” and he’s a UFA next summer who can walk. Maybe if BOS needs another sniper for the playoff run? I see Lyles’ effectively expiring deal having more value as filler to the receiving team. Can see the spurs wanting to attach Carroll’s long term money too.
Yeah, I don’t see the path with Miami unless a third team interested in Drogden is involved. Plus all their picks are owed/subject to that rule that you can trade away picks in successive years.
Hard to believe any teams wants some of spurs trash. Murray White Walker Jakob are the only pieces that seem to intrigue for the long run. And I am starting to wonder about White. I hope he is hurt cause he ain’t been good lately.
Barnes' contract is not so bad since it's declining. 24-22-20-18. Million$ per season. Barnes is scoring 16ppg compared to DDR's 22. Barnes is a 3pt shooter. He's shot better than .350 his entire career. He's hitting 3's at a .397 clip this year. And he's a genuine forward, mostly PF but has also played SF. I'd trade DDR for Barnes, and bribe somebody to make it happen. Further, if the Spurs can eat $5 million to move Gasol, they should damn sure eat $5 million, and maybe even a little more, to move DDR.
As for LMA, we cannot move him without a big to replace him.
That's a different story. The way to build future value is to put those young players on the floor and let them rise or fall. If the Spurs didn't have to match salaries, I'd let them both go for a couple of decent young players and get about business. The one thing I don't want to see them do is take on a long-term contract on someone that isn't even an improvement on DeRozan. That would be the worst of all worlds - worse than letting DeRozan walk for free, I think.
I'm not sure either team would go for that, but yeah, in a heartbeat. I don't know that Portland wants LMA that badly, and I don't think Orlando can or will include Fournier since he's their top scorer and top 3P shooter. But I'd be happy for all that to come true.
Barnes/Bogdanovic/Gordon and Fournier would be a great return for the two "stars"
I put this in the other thread, but
DD, Forbes and Metu for Bogdonovic, Ariza(or Corey Joseph) and Bjelica works on the trade checker, Spurs can throw a second round pick if necessary.
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