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  1. #26
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    You left out the money. That's a serious omission where a business is concerned.


    You're absolutely right about the value of home playoff games. But that is small change for team ownership, compared to the value of the franchise. The Cavs valuation was down 4% this year. The Spurs valuation was up 5% this year. The Bucks were up 26%, and the ty Pelicans were up 22%. You fancy yourself a businessman - which is worse - missing out on $1M in short term revenues, or missing out on $80M in long term team value? (That's the difference in an extra 5% in team valuation for the Spurs at their current $1.6B value.)

    There's nothing worse for a business, especially for a sports team, than a long slow decline from lack of interest. Especially a small market team. Excitement sells tickets. It doesn't have to be a Zion Williamson. Take someone like Jamal Murray who went at 7 or 8 a couple of drafts ago, and put him in this roster in place of the current starting SG. I guarantee you the team wouldn't be scraping the bottom of the barrel for enough wins to squeeze into the playoffs with a sub-.500 record. Derek White may have been the best player available at 29 when he was drafted. But Donovan Mitchel went 13th. You just can't overvalue the talent concentrated toward the top of a draft.

    Nobody here is excited about this team, this year. Maybe some really believe in their long term prospects, but nobody is excited about this season. People here love to argue, so I'm sure some jackass will say they are. But nobody is. From a financial perspective, nothing could be better for this team than drafting a really high-quality draft pick who could hit the floor in his first season. Personally I think more people would be excited about seeing them lose with guys like Keldon and Spoon than what's currently on the floor. I know I would, if for no other reason than I could see some light at the end of the tunnel.

  2. #27
    Veteran Harry Callahan's Avatar
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    There is NO CHANCE of being a threat in the playoffs. 23 straight playoff seasons is a wonderful record and will won't be matched in my lifetime, but being a middle of the pack team will drain local enthusiasm and ticket sales over time.

    I really don't want to see a Cowboys like mediocrity for the Spurs. That is the worst situation. A can stomach a rebuild for awhile if the right pieces get put together. The Spurs don't have the luxury of being horrible at building or rebuilding a team and still ending up with Lebrick, AD and the best record in the conference which is the case with the LAL. All of the ballyhooed LAL lotto picks are gone from the team from only a 5 or 6 year window of having a crappy team and the resulting high picks.

  3. #28
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    There is NO CHANCE of being a threat in the playoffs. 23 straight playoff seasons is a wonderful record and will won't be matched in my lifetime, but being a middle of the pack team will drain local enthusiasm and ticket sales over time.

    I really don't want to see a Cowboys like mediocrity for the Spurs. That is the worst situation. A can stomach a rebuild for awhile if the right pieces get put together. The Spurs don't have the luxury of being horrible at building or rebuilding a team and still ending up with Lebrick, AD and the best record in the conference which is the case with the LAL. All of the ballyhooed LAL lotto picks are gone from the team from only a 5 or 6 year window of having a crappy team and the resulting high picks.
    100%. The Lakers can afford to be sloppy. The Spurs can't. Right now, the Spurs are being sloppy.

    I'm going to say one last thing in this thread, and then leave it for the record-chasers:

    In 2007, Golden State squeezed into the playoffs with a 42-40 record, and pulled off a HUGE upset by beating the Mavs in the first round.
    In 2009 they compiled a dismal 31-51 record, and drafted Steph Curry in the offseason. (With the 7th pick.)


    Which thing do you think did more for the franchise?

  4. #29
    Veteran tbdog's Avatar
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    Warriors drafted Anthony Randolf at 14 the year before. The year after Curry, they drafted Udoh at 6. The year Curry was drafted, Twolves drafted two pgs before Curry. Spurs traded an established player in Hill, who was selected at 26 for Leonard. The point is, tanking only increases your luck. Teams have been in the pits for years and only briefly breathe the playoffs before it crashes down on them.

  5. #30
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    NO. Time has run out for this team to gel. Even if they make it on the 8 seed they will get eliminated by whoever owns the 1 seed and end up in a garbage spot in the draft next year. Take the L’s and try to end up in the top 10 draft.

    P.S. might as well move aldridge and derozen for something useful.

  6. #31
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    You're absolutely right about the value of home playoff games. But that is small change for team ownership, ...
    According to you, a few million bucks is "small change," you say. Not to get personal, but what is your current bank balance, which makes a few million look like small change to you?

    Are you sure that's what the ownership would say? Why do you think so?

    ... You fancy yourself a businessman - ...
    I merely fancy myself as a person who is not oblivious to reality, as if the Spurs were an amateur club or a video game. They are neither, altho that's how many around here talk about them.

    ... which is worse - missing out on $1M in short term revenues, or missing out on $80M in long term team value? ...
    Who is the player you have your eye on, in this year's draft, who offers that magnitude of value? Name him. Seriously, no foolin'. Name him.

    Or is it only your idea that the difference between pick 17 and pick 7, in any draft, is always worth that much? What data do you have to support that idea?

    ... (That's the difference in an extra 5% in team valuation for the Spurs at their current $1.6B value.)
    Again, name the player in this year's draft who you think is worth 5% of the team's total value.

    ... Take someone like Jamal Murray who went at 7 or 8 a couple of drafts ago, and put him in this roster in place of the current starting SG. ...
    Who's the "Jamal Murray" in this year's draft? The name, please.

    ... But Donovan Mitchel went 13th. ...
    Who's the "Donovan Mitc " in this year's draft? The name, please.

    You just can't overvalue the talent concentrated toward the top of a draft.
    You don't think that, oh, Markelle Fultz and Anthony Bennett, to give a couple examples, were overvalued? I'm inclined to think they were. Speaking as if it's a sure thing does not correspond to reality.

    Nobody here is excited about this team, this year. ...
    Is anybody excited about the draft this year? That's more to the point.

    From a financial perspective, nothing could be better for this team than drafting a really high-quality draft pick who could hit the floor in his first season. ...
    Sounds lovely. Name that player. Who, in this year's draft, qualifies?

    You want to look on the bright side, which is commendable, but there is also a darker side to ponder. The Spurs have not always been lucky, and there's no basis to think they'll always be lucky in the future. So, very well, the Spurs miss the playoffs, get a high pick, and draft what they hope will be Tim Duncan II, or at least some kind of a rough imitation. However, after a while they discover they've drafted Dewayne Dedmon II. For that, they skipped the playoffs.

    The problem is, it could happen. In any draft, at any pick, you're much more likely to get a Dedmon than a Duncan, because there are so many more of them. It isn't worth skipping the playoffs intentionally to try to play that game instead.

  7. #32
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    NO. Time has run out for this team to gel. Even if they make it on the 8 seed they will get eliminated by whoever owns the 1 seed and end up in a garbage spot in the draft next year. Take the L’s and try to end up in the top 10 draft.
    ...

    But, to draft what player? Name him. Or name a few players, in this year's draft, who'd be worth missing the playoffs to get.

  8. #33
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    But, to draft what player? Name him. Or name a few players, in this year's draft, who'd be worth missing the playoffs to get.
    It looks that way now, but you never know. There's plenty examples of high picks (and others) turning out significantly better than expected.

    What's so appealing about trying to squeak into the playoffs only to get emasculated by an L.A. team?

  9. #34
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    It looks that way now, but you never know. There's plenty examples of high picks (and others) turning out significantly better than expected.

    What's so appealing about trying to squeak into the playoffs only to get emasculated by an L.A. team?
    The money.

  10. #35
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    That's a shortsighted way to look at it because in the long run, by continuing to delay the inevitable, they're actually lose money when a long playoff drought sets in.

  11. #36
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    That's a shortsighted way to look at it because in the long run, by continuing to delay the inevitable, they're actually lose money when a long playoff drought sets in.
    Sure, businesses that care about money are so terribly short sighted. They should all be more like the government of California, or Venezuela.

    Name the player you see in this year's draft who's a difference maker. Don't just blather foolish abstractions and pure speculations.

    Name him.

  12. #37
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    Sure, businesses that care about money are so terribly short sighted. They should all be more like the government of California, or Venezuela.

    Name the player you see in this year's draft who's a difference maker. Don't just blather foolish abstractions and pure speculations.

    Name him.
    There's also a good chance they don't make it. It's not like they have the inside track. If it were that simple, ever franchise would operate like this. The reason most don't, is because they realize it's penny wise, pound foolish.

    I'm not going to pretend to. I'm jut saying, just because there doesn't appear to be a franchise player, you can't make that assumption more than 5 months before a bunch of mostly 19-20 years are even drafted.

    Westbrook, Harden, Curry, Lillard, Towns, Doncic, are all relatively recent examples of high picks who turned out significantly better than expected.

  13. #38
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    ... you can't make that assumption more than 5 months before a bunch of mostly 19-20 years are even drafted.
    Except, you are. You're making the assumption that one of them, at least, is worth skipping the playoffs for.

    Why do you think so? Especially since you can't name even one possibility, why do you think so?

  14. #39
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
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    This was clearly their plan from the jump and it hasn't changed. It obviously hinges on DeRozan's willingness to opt in because the (pseudo) compe iveness part is covered through at least this season considering how weak the middle - bottom of the West is.

    If he doesn't play along, they'll have to trade him after this season, which could facilitate Aldridge and Gay wanting out too.

    Gay isn’t really a player to build around, he’s basically replacement level if not worse.

  15. #40
    Veteran sasaint's Avatar
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    Maybe that's not the right question either. How about, "Is pop actually trying to make the playoffs?"
    I think Pop is trying to eat his cake and have it, too. He's trying to slip into the 8th playoff spot with the worst record possible in order to preserve the streak and get the highest draft pick he can, still making the payoffs. That's all I can surmise from his confounding coaching this season. Those horrible rotations and continuing to play - much less start Bryn... He is trying to chart a very narrow course.

  16. #41
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    I think Pop is trying to eat his cake and have it, too. He's trying to slip into the 8th playoff spot with the worst record possible in order to preserve the streak and get the highest draft pick he can, still making the payoffs. That's all I can surmise from his confounding coaching this season. Those horrible rotations and continuing to play - much less start Bryn... He is trying to chart a very narrow course.

    That's as good of a guess as any. This is the damnedest season I can remember. You would think he would try something different, just because this isn't working. This season is half over.

  17. #42
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    Except, you are. You're making the assumption that one of them, at least, is worth skipping the playoffs for.

    Why do you think so? Especially since you can't name even one possibility, why do you think so?
    No, you are based on projections from others on a bunch of 18-19 year olds.

    Prior history. Doesn't mean it'll repeat itself this year obviously, but it could.

    Gay isn’t really a player to build around, he’s basically replacement level if not worse.

    Didn't say he was.

  18. #43
    Believe.
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    But, to draft what player? Name him. Or name a few players, in this year's draft, who'd be worth missing the playoffs to get.
    Yeah i have no specific player in mind but some of the other posters have responded to you and i share the same take on the whole making the playoffs issue. Take a gamble in the draft and hopefully they find a player that can become something special. Making the playoffs this year just to get bounced in the first round is not gonna do anything to progress the team.

  19. #44
    Veteran sasaint's Avatar
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    Sure, businesses that care about money are so terribly short sighted. They should all be more like the government of California, or Venezuela.

    Name the player you see in this year's draft who's a difference maker. Don't just blather foolish abstractions and pure speculations.

    Name him.
    You are obviously right to focus on prospects available in this draft rather than generalized draft statistics. Asking other posters what player they would target in this draft really puts a fine point on the debate/issue. The scuttlebutt is everywhere that this draft may be Anthony Bennett weak. If it is, we need to package our pick with a player/players and make some noise before the trade deadline. I personally don't know much about this year's draft class. Do you? Do you personally think this is a weak draft? If you were on the other side of your argument, is there any player that you would target in the high lottery? Just curious...

  20. #45
    Believe.
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    But, to draft what player? Name him. Or name a few players, in this year's draft, who'd be worth missing the playoffs to get.
    Yeah i have no specific player in mind but some of the other posters have responded to you and i share the same take on the whole making the playoffs issue. Take a gamble in the draft and hopefully they find a player that can become something special. Making the playoffs this year just to get bounced in the first round is not gonna do anything to progress the team.

  21. #46
    Veteran sasaint's Avatar
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    That's as good of a guess as any. This is the damnedest season I can remember. You would think he would try something different, just because this isn't working. This season is half over.
    Tanking is totally a coaching strategy. The NBA ain't "On the Waterfront;" Pop doesn't go into the locker room before a game and tell the players, "Tonight ain't your night. Take the fall." If a player/players obviously dog it and get caught (and historically they have) it's called point shaving and that's a crime. But it is almost impossible to show that a coach made particular strategic/personnel decisions that were intended to lose games. Pop may actually be executing a masterful semi-tank. I just believe that despite some ty recent personnel moves the Spurs have enough talent that, if it had been maximized, we would have several more wins under our belt. On the other hand, but for a handful of really impressive outings, we would be completely out of the running and ensconced in 14th place in the West. So, yeah, it is easily the damndest season I can remember for any team in any sport that I follow. Yet, I thoroughly expect PATFO to stand pat at the deadline and stay this absolutely bizarre course.

    Btw, I am surprised, as recognized as the strategy is in the NBA, that the Feds haven't launched a full-scale investigation of tanking in the NBA. I wonder what Vegas thinks of load management...
    Last edited by sasaint; 01-16-2020 at 09:55 PM.

  22. #47
    Veteran JeffDuncan's Avatar
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    I think Pop is trying to eat his cake and have it, too. He's trying to slip into the 8th playoff spot with the worst record possible in order to preserve the streak and get the highest draft pick he can, still making the payoffs. ...
    I think you're giving Pop way way too much credit. He is not that smart. The reason why he's doing what he's doing, is that he doesn't know what else to do, with that roster that he, himself, played such a large role in creating.

  23. #48
    You Are Not Worthy ZeusWillJudge's Avatar
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    You are obviously right to focus on prospects available in this draft rather than generalized draft statistics. Asking other posters what player they would target in this draft really puts a fine point on the debate/issue. The scuttlebutt is everywhere that this draft may be Anthony Bennett weak. If it is, we need to package our pick with a player/players and make some noise before the trade deadline. I personally don't know much about this year's draft class. Do you? Do you personally think this is a weak draft? If you were on the other side of your argument, is there any player that you would target in the high lottery? Just curious...

    There's nothing "generalized" about the top 6-7 slots constantly generating much better players overall. There will always be dumb FO's who pick the Greg Oden's of the draft. But if PATFO are really as good at drafting as people claim, then they should damn near have a lock on a top-tier player if they ever pick that high. (No, I didn't say franchise player, although their chances are much better high than low.)

    It might help if some of you watched any college ball. Cole Anthony (son of Greg Anthony) is going to be an NBA baller. He had knee surgery, but I'm still pretty confident he'll still declare this year. He may fall a few slots, but not far enough for the Spurs to get him at 16 or whatever. Anthony Davis will be logging NBA minutes next season. Lamelo Ball too, even though he was playing in Australia, not NCAA, and now he's hurt. (People here will bash him because of the family.)

    I've been a Maccabi fan since I lived and worked over there for a while. They have a kid named Deni Avdija who has a shot at being a good NBA player. If he declares this year he may be within the Spurs' grasp. I thought Aaron Nesmith might be a Spurs fit in that 16-17 range, until he got injured. But guys like that are dart-throws. It's a totally different thing picking at 7 or higher, in any draft.
    It's the density of good players that make the statistics.

  24. #49
    Believe. Ignazzz's Avatar
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    This draft is very weak.

  25. #50
    Veteran tbdog's Avatar
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    Even drafting well doesn't guarantee anything. Injuries can derail a player and a team. Pelicans drafted AD and got the second round once before losing him. The Spurs are not in a cap whole where they need to gut their team. Cap opens up after next season.

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