1. #27201
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    But you can't just divide hospitalizations and deaths by the total vaccinated and get an accurate number.

  2. #27202
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Its a difficult thing to estimate, just like CFR vs IFR, but we never used the entire US population as a denominator back when vaccines weren't available.
    But we were actively testing people, because the situation in general was different.

    I think the idea is that vaccinated people, even if infected, are at a lower risk. Breakthrough cases are generally rare.

    We still have ~half the country unvaccinated, probably saving the tests for those people.

  3. #27203
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    But you can't just divide hospitalizations and deaths by the total vaccinated and get an accurate number.
    If you're measuring breakthrough cases, why not?

  4. #27204
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    But we were actively testing people, because the situation in general was different.

    I think the idea is that vaccinated people, even if infected, are at a lower risk. Breakthrough cases are generally rare.

    We still have ~half the country unvaccinated, probably saving the tests for those people.

    We have no idea (because we aren't tracking it) how many vaccinated people are getting infected.

  5. #27205
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    We have no idea (because we aren't tracking it) how many vaccinated people are getting infected.
    Sure. But by counting all vaccinated you're basically assuming the worst case scenario, where all vaccinated people are deemed infected.

  6. #27206
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    Sure. But by counting all vaccinated you're basically assuming the worst case scenario, where all vaccinated people are deemed infected.
    Its not the worst case scenario, its the most optimistic scenario.

    Before vaccine, we measured morbidity/mortality of covid by hospitalizations and deaths divided by known positive tests. Not divided by the entire US population

  7. #27207
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    The better messaging is that the vast majority of hospitalization and death are unvaccinated, which is true.

  8. #27208
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    Its not the worst case scenario, its the most optimistic scenario.

    Before vaccine, we measured morbidity/mortality of covid by hospitalizations and deaths divided by known positive tests. Not divided by the entire US population
    Is that the case? My understanding is that we were counting raw hospitalizations and deaths numbers, regardless of number of infected.

  9. #27209
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Is that the case? My understanding is that we were counting raw hospitalizations and deaths numbers, regardless of number of infected.
    Boiled down:::

    234k of dead Americans on mother er Biden's side the COVID Death ledger.

  10. #27210
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    Is that the case? My understanding is that we were counting raw hospitalizations and deaths numbers, regardless of number of infected.

    We calculate case fatality rate by deaths/cases.

  11. #27211
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    We calculate case fatality rate by deaths/cases.
    I'll take your word for it

  12. #27212
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    We calculate case fatality rate by deaths/cases.

    Which is why IFR is much lower. We don't know the true denominator, but we know is much larger than confirmed cases. Still, the denominator is not the entire population.

  13. #27213
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    Which is why IFR is much lower. We don't know the true denominator, but we know is much larger than confirmed cases. Still, the denominator is not the entire population.
    I also wonder what's the amount of people that had COVID previously and were unvaccinated. Those are also technically breakthrough cases. In some cases it might be difficult to tell, especially if they didn't have severe symptoms.

  14. #27214
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    I also wonder what's the amount of people that had COVID previously and were unvaccinated. Those are also technically breakthrough cases. In some cases it might be difficult to tell, especially if they didn't have severe symptoms.

    Probably a large number of people infected and not accounted for.

  15. #27215
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    It has been estimated that, assuming in-person schooling goes on as planned, 40%-70% of school kids will be infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the next three months. Even if the incidence of disease and hospitalization are low, given the probable large number of cases, the absolute numbers of each will be large.

    Which I guess is fine and well so long as someone else's kid ends up in the hospital or an early grave.


  16. #27216
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    I also wonder what's the amount of people that had COVID previously and were unvaccinated. Those are also technically breakthrough cases. In some cases it might be difficult to tell, especially if they didn't have severe symptoms.
    People who had the initial covid virus may not be immune to the delta variant as they are different. Much like the seasonal flu change or due there being more varieties, one can get sick with flu more than once.

    It would be foolish not to get the free vaccine and avoid any of the expenses (great or small) or physical harm associated with the delta variant.

  17. #27217
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    It has been estimated that, assuming in-person schooling goes on as planned, 40%-70% of school kids will be infected by SARS-CoV-2 during the next three months. Even if the incidence of disease and hospitalization are low, given the probable large number of cases, the absolute numbers of each will be large.

    Which I guess is fine and well so long as someone else's kid ends up in the hospital or an early grave.



    Childless person still fretting about in-person schooling.

  18. #27218
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing

  19. #27219
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    COVID rules at school should be at least as strict as those for head lice


  20. #27220
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    you don't have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing

    Fat man in basement posting on ST 24/7 is probably safe.

    Leave the kids alone.

  21. #27221
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    lol Darrin avoiding the topic and the points made

  22. #27222
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    Whinehole cares about the kids

  23. #27223
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Whinehole cares about the kids
    I do.

  24. #27224
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    Biden is blowing it.


  25. #27225
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