Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[Blake]

the feel good make believe utopian re ed progressive idiots are all weak bleeding heart losers unfortunately. it's sad when our males in this society are more pussified than our females.

So you're gonna refuse to cash your socialist government handout? Simple yes or no, thanks.

But first settle down

[boutons_deux]

This is very unlikely to be over in two months if this virus isn't severely hampered by rising temperatures. Mnuchin wouldn't be proposing a second UBI check in two months if there was much reason to hope we'd be coming out of this by then. Like Michael Osterholm said, this isn't a blizzard, it's a winter.

H1N1 swine flu blasted right through the summer of 2009, spring to November

[vy65]

It sounds like you're banking on best case scenarios though. What percentage of the workforce can work from home? 10%? 20%? We don't appear to have nearly enough hospital beds or ventilators to open the country back up in two months unless we just have catostrophic number of deaths these two months with the virus burning through say half the population. And I really fear for small business in this country.

One poll says 43%

https://news.gallup.com/businessjour...tm_medium=copy

The infrastructure bit is an issue. I think we should have gone full Italy-style lock down last week. I think we will in another week or so. But the reason for that is to give us breathing room. I don't see why we wouldn't get that in 3-4 weeks.

The shock to small business is huge. I can't overstate that enough. So we're in agreement here. But the shock isn't economically based - which is why, like SB said, this is so novel. I'm not normally an optimist at all, but let's say tomorrow I came out with a cure. Don't we go back to business as usual? The problem in the hypothetical is that there is no cure as of yet, but the point is that the stressors are not part of the system itself. And with all the treatments being considered/rushed through, you'd have to think that there's going to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

[boutons_deux]

Trash/CDC refusal to accept WHO test kits used by 60 other countries was their fatal mistake

WTF were they thinking? Imperial hubris? USA don't accept no steenkin help from the hated, derided UN/WHO?

Without testing, we have no idea where are nor where we are going.

[DarrinS]

H1N1 swine flu blasted right through the summer of 2009, spring to November

It slowed considerably in the summer.

[vy65]

H1N1 swine flu blasted right through the summer of 2009, spring to November

There are four endemic coronaviruses [a family of viruses that cause respiratory illnesses] that circulate within humans. Studies and data I have seen show three or even all four of them circulating seasonally, peaking during the wintertime and pretty much disappearing during the summer months. And it's an even more marked seasonality than we see for flu, which also in temperate regions is like that.

Now, there's reasonable evidence with the flu that it's not actually linked to temperature, but rather linked to humidity levels and that these viruses thrive in conditions that are very dry, which is what we get in the wintertime. Why that is for flu, we don't know, and if that is the mechanism that extends to coronavirus, we don't know either. Either way it leads to the enticing possibility that maybe this novel coronavirus will also be affected by ambient conditions which lead to it dissipating during summertime.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronav...ert-weighs-in/

[baseline bum]

One poll says 43%

https://news.gallup.com/businessjour...tm_medium=copy

The infrastructure bit is an issue. I think we should have gone full Italy-style lock down last week. I think we will in another week or so. But the reason for that is to give us breathing room. I don't see why we wouldn't get that in 3-4 weeks.

The shock to small business is huge. I can't overstate that enough. So we're in agreement here. But the shock isn't economically based - which is why, like SB said, this is so novel. I'm not normally an optimist at all, but let's say tomorrow I came out with a cure. Don't we go back to business as usual? The problem in the hypothetical is that there is no cure as of yet, but the point is that the stressors are not part of the system itself. And with all the treatments being considered/rushed through, you'd have to think that there's going to be some light at the end of the tunnel.

I don't think 3-4 weeks gets us breathing room and opening everything up after that just probably gets us back to where we are now considering how effectively this spreads. If a cure was found today how quickly are you going to make 40 million doses, assuming 40% of the world's population gets the virus and saying say 3 billion of the 8 billion people on Earth are from hole countries where no one is going to care about saving them so they get to bootstrap. Let's say 2% of infections lead to going to the hospital instead of the currently accepted 20% based on the idea there is 10x the number of infections out there as have been found.

.4 * 5 billion people * 0.02 = 40 million

It just seems really optimistic to me to think we can start approaching normal in two months.

[baseline bum]

Unless it's seasonal. If it's seasonal (god I hope) that gets us breathing room and maybe we are back to somewhat normal in 6 weeks.

[picnroll]

Trash/CDC refusal to accept WHO test kits used by 60 other countries was their fatal mistake

WTF were they thinking? Imperial hubris? USA don't accept no steenkin help from the hated, derided UN/WHO?

Without testing, we have no idea where are nor where we are going.

I think we were pretty much screwed one way or the other, with or without kits. Unlike China where there was one epicenter and perfection of a mass population control mechanism US is dotted with epicenters. Social distancing came late and is very poorly observed. Message was for the general population not to use face masks but that was because we didn’t have them unlike Korea, China and Japan where they almost wear those suckers to bed. Initial spread came from returnees and tourists coming from China and Europe dotting the country. Testing only would have gotten the symptomatic patients, some weren’t symptomatic and some spread the disease before they were symptomatic. In my opinion this is just a perfect storm virus For an unprepared, inexperienced country

[boutons_deux]

With Burr as an example, I'd really like to know how many Congresspeople dumped their stock in Jan and Feb

was that the reason Trash lied for wees until the dam burst, to give Congress people with insider knowledge to take the profits?

[Thread]

With Burr as an example, I'd really like to know how many Congresspeople dumped their stock in Jan and Feb

bouts

[vy65]

I don't think 3-4 weeks gets us breathing room and opening everything up after that just probably gets us back to where we are now considering how effectively this spreads. If a cure was found today how quickly are you going to make 40 million doses, assuming 40% of the world's population gets the virus and saying say 3 billion of the 8 billion people on Earth are from hole countries where no one is going to care about saving them so they get to bootstrap. Let's say 2% of infections lead to going to the hospital instead of the currently accepted 20% based on the idea there is 10x the number of infections out there as have been found.

.4 * 5 billion people * 0.02 = 40 million

It just seems really optimistic to me to think we can start approaching normal in two months.

You wouldn't need 40 million doses right away. You'd prioritize those in the ICU. That's likely going to be in the 10s of thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands. Tall order for sure, but we're far off from 40 million vaccines right away.

327,200,000 US citizens. Let's say 70% catch it, so 230,000,000. Putting aside that this is a projection over 18 months (I think), the amount of those who need critical care is 5%.

The majority of people with Covid-19 can be managed at home. But among 44,000 cases in China, about 15% required hospitalization and 5% ended up in critical care. In Italy, the statistics so far are even more dismal: More than half of infected individuals require hospitalization and about 10% need treatment in the ICU.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/...wers-covid-19/

That's 11.5 million vaccines needed over 18 months.

[vy65]

Unless it's seasonal. If it's seasonal (god I hope) that gets us breathing room and maybe we are back to somewhat normal in 6 weeks.

Same. I think our best hope is a combination of this + an anti-viral treatment that will float us until we get a vaccine. A few months of breathing room would be huge in ramping up infrastructure to deal with this.

[boutons_deux]

I think we were pretty much screwed one way or the other, with or without kits.

SK and USA detected their first case on the same day.

SK attacked the problem, Trash lied.

Impeach Trash

[TheGreatYacht]

The Endgame of the Covid-19 Lockdown

[RandomGuy]

I don't think 3-4 weeks gets us breathing room and opening everything up after that just probably gets us back to where we are now considering how effectively this spreads. If a cure was found today how quickly are you going to make 40 million doses, assuming 40% of the world's population gets the virus and saying say 3 billion of the 8 billion people on Earth are from hole countries where no one is going to care about saving them so they get to bootstrap. Let's say 2% of infections lead to going to the hospital instead of the currently accepted 20% based on the idea there is 10x the number of infections out there as have been found.

.4 * 5 billion people * 0.02 = 40 million

It just seems really optimistic to me to think we can start approaching normal in two months.

Well, it will infect a LOT of people after the first e of in the US of 90M or so. Flu usually gets around 60% of the population if memory serves.

Saw a good simulator on wapo that showed the dynamics of how it spreads. You can't get it if you already had it, so once that e happens the rate of transmission will drop markedly, allowing the health system some breathing space.

[vy65]

Well, it will infect a LOT of people after the first e of in the US of 90M or so. Flu usually gets around 60% of the population if memory serves.

Saw a good simulator on wapo that showed the dynamics of how it spreads. You can't get it if you already had it, so once that e happens the rate of transmission will drop markedly, allowing the health system some breathing space.

I thought that there was no determination on full vs. partial immunity. But the severity will be less even if it's only partial.

[RandomGuy]

I thought that there was no determination on full vs. partial immunity. But the severity will be less even if it's only partial.

yup. less severe probably means less time where you have a communicable case.

A lot we don't know yet. Will it slow down in the summer? How immune are you if you have already had it? How long does it live on surfaces?

Probably similar to other viruses in all these instances, but probably is not the same as doing the science to say for certain.

[hater]

yes let's open people's eyes by showing them fortune teller's cards

[RandomGuy]

[another youtube video that one one will watch]

Dude you're getting dunked on by hater.

hater.

Lay off the wacky tobakky.

[picnroll]

Doctors and patients wonder if the NBA is getting special treatment with coronavirus tests

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/19/doct...rus-tests.html

[boutons_deux]

The Outbreak in New York and the Thunder Under the Waves

New York State has done 22,284 test and found 4,152 (19%) cases.

Washington State has done 17,105 tests and confirmed 1,187 cases (7%).

California has done 9,711 tests and confirmed 924 (10%) cases.

There are 12 deaths in New York, 66 in Washington State and 18 in California.

To put it in the most merciless terms, COVID-19 takes a while to kill many of its victims.

Florida has received results for 1,923 tests and confirmed 390 (20%) cases. 1,109 more are pending.

78% of New Jersey’s tests have come back positive for a total of 742 cases.

One mildly positive development is that testing at scale really does now seem to be underway.



. Florida has received results for 1,923 tests and confirmed 390 (20%) cases. 1,109 more are pending.

Texas has run 2,355 tests and confirmed 143 (6%) cases.

These are the 2nd and 4th largest states in the country.

They’ve done much less testing that the 1st and 3rd largest.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...+%28TPMNews%29

[Mark Celibate]

yes

en led little s. but to be faur if I was 21 again, not sure what id do tbqh

tough times

I mean we're about to be locked inside for who the f*ck knows how long right as the weather starts to warm up outside so I can't really blame for trying to enjoy it while they can.

[vy65]

The Outbreak in New York and the Thunder Under the Waves

New York State has done 22,284 test and found 4,152 (19%) cases.

Washington State has done 17,105 tests and confirmed 1,187 cases (7%).

California has done 9,711 tests and confirmed 924 (10%) cases.

There are 12 deaths in New York, 66 in Washington State and 18 in California.

To put it in the most merciless terms, COVID-19 takes a while to kill many of its victims.

Florida has received results for 1,923 tests and confirmed 390 (20%) cases. 1,109 more are pending.

78% of New Jersey’s tests have come back positive for a total of 742 cases.

One mildly positive development is that testing at scale really does now seem to be underway.



. Florida has received results for 1,923 tests and confirmed 390 (20%) cases. 1,109 more are pending.

Texas has run 2,355 tests and confirmed 143 (6%) cases.

These are the 2nd and 4th largest states in the country.

They’ve done much less testing that the 1st and 3rd largest.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog...+%28TPMNews%29

Those numbers are all over the place - between 6 and 78 percent is not very telling. You'd imagine they'll skew higher since the people being tested now are more likely to have it, and those numbers will slide down as testing at scale is further implemented.

[RandomGuy]

Say X(t) = number of deaths at time t. Those are graphs of log X(t) which are nearly linear, eg log X(t) = at + b for some numbers a,b, so that X(t) = e^(at + b) = e^b e^(at). The US's "a" coefficient is larger than Italy's in that graph from deaths up until 3/12 in those those two graphs since a gives the slope of the graphs and the US's is steeper. Hopefully we're actually socially distancing and bringing that a coefficient way down.

Got a bit more data now. what is the trend line looking like?