Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[Nathan89]

You watch too many movies.

RL science doesn't work that way. What are the side effects? What if the side effects are worse than the disease when you introduce it widely? As the DOCTOR pointed out, don't count on this to pan out.

I've made no claims. They are testing for a reason. One simply doesn't know until things are tested.

[Thread]

I don't care what he is. He still doesn't know the future.

& he's under pressure to sell out the old man on-that-dais. Tired, fatigued, the joy of importance & attention starting to wane he's susceptible to haranguing the old man live from that lectern that he can barely see over. Short man syndrome all his life, finally he's a big shot, a genuine American super star, or, as close to it as he'll ever get.

MSM has him where they want him, in the cross hairs. They'd sell him out in a split second. But, they ain't rushing it like I thought they would 3 days ago, when he started to go off, then remembered what his wife admonished him at the door as he left to get into that gov't limo:::"Tony, please honey, just let it go. We need this. He's the President. Let-it-go."

MSM is prepping him, waiting for that fatigue to present a moment when he's ripe & then Tony will do THEIR dirty work.

Wife: "GD it, Tony, I told you." as Uber drops him off back at home.

[hater]

orange bas has completely gone bananas

did he really say we have good liquids for this??? holy we all gone die

[picnroll]

& he's under pressure to sell out the old man on-that-dais. Tired, fatigued, the joy of importance & attention starting to wane he's susceptible to haranguing the old man live from that lectern that he can barely see over. Short man syndrome all his life, finally he's a big shot, a genuine American super star, or, as close to it as he'll ever get.

MSM has him where they want him, in the cross hairs. They'd sell him out in a split second. But, they ain't rushing it like I thought they would 3 days ago, when he started to go off, then remembered what his wife admonished him at the door as he left to get into that gov't limo:::"Tony, please honey, just let it go. We need this. He's the President. Let-it-go."

MSM is prepping him, waiting for that fatigue to present a moment when he's ripe & then Tony will do THEIR dirty work.

Wife: "GD it, Tony, I told you." as Uber drops him off back at home.

Or maybe a guy who has a stellar 40 yr reputation in the field, and unlike all the syncophant’s who let their reputations get trashed by Rump, he didn’t wanted to appear like he was endorsing the imbecile.

[SnakeBoy]

I had the same symptoms last week, really bad abdominal pain and chills. Lasted for a couple of days. At that same time, my wife had been coughing her head off for over a week. Nurse at CVS told her she had a mild bacterial pneumonia and gave her a z-pak.

Mine started Monday and steadily got worse through the week until I passed out last Saturday (split my nose open when my face met the floor). They just chalked that up to a vaso vagal response which is embarrassing since it's just medical terminology for fainted like a

It's like there is something going around

[florige]

Is there like different strains of this thing or something? Celebrities that are getting this thing are acting like it’s really no big deal and recovery like it’s a common cold where some ordinary folks seem like they are dying on the death beds.

[DarrinS]

Mine started Monday and steadily got worse through the week until I passed out last Saturday (split my nose open when my face met the floor). They just chalked that up to a vaso vagal response which is embarrassing since it's just medical terminology for fainted like a

It's like there is something going around

Damn. Whatever I had wasn't nearly that severe. I didn't have loss of taste/smell as has been mentioned, but I had almost no appe e whatsoever. When I did eat, it was a nauseating experience.

[boutons_deux]

I'm keeping it to less than 3000 mg/day since who knows if I'll be taking these for a couple of weeks.

looks up the safe limit of mg per kg of body weight

[boutons_deux]

Is there like different strains of this thing or something? Celebrities that are getting this thing are acting like it’s really no big deal and recovery like it’s a common cold where some ordinary folks seem like they are dying on the death beds.

people over 60 are the prime killing ground.

the lower the decade, the milder the symptoms, until almost zero for babies.

BUT

genetics, other health problems, esp immune, smoking/vaping, etc can invite very severe covid-19 symptoms and death at any age.

[boutons_deux]

Israeli doctor in Italy:

We no longer help those over 60

Israeli medical doctor Gai Peleg told Israeli television that

in northern Italy the orders are not to allow those over 60 access to respiratory machines.

https://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-doctor-in-Italy-We-no-longer-help-those-over-60-621856

[Sheriff Hoyt]

he had lunch with Paul

[Sheriff Hoyt]

[midnightpulp]

So now we have the first bits of semi-reliable data.

Italy:

Confirmed cases: 60k

Deaths: 5.4k.

9% fatality.

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Their aging population probably contributed, and this suggests their health system was overwhelmed, as their fatality rate is vastly higher than others.

US still on a trajectory that indicates our system will be overwhelmed as well.

Taking issue with this because it's bad logic to compare us to Italy. The comparison doesn't account for many, many variables. Not coming at you, but I'm getting sick of the "Omg, we're going to become Italy soon!" doom and gloom projections that is wrongly making a 1 to 1 comparison with the entire US. I think you posted in my thread comparing how the virus spreads in countries and states with different climates and population densities. I used the flu rate as an example of how much more hospitable virus transmission is in those "green areas." On this point, Italy's flu fatality is 10 times higher than ours. Their population is simply more susceptible to the grave outcomes of respiratory illness.

In recent years, Italy has been registering peaks in death rates, particularly among the elderly during the winter season. A mortality rate of 10.7 per 1,000 inhabitants

Or 1 percent. The flu mortality rate in the US is .01.

I find it curious that no one ever compares us to Australia? They didn't prepare and the virus hasn't "swept the nation." Climate, social behavior (i.e. mass transit vs. driving), and social interaction, and population density are big factors in virality. I've been pouring over case progression and comparing progression rates and such. Countries and regions in the green band accelerate far, far quicker from their first reported case and death than countries in the red bands.

For example, over a 20 day period, Italy went from one death to 827. Over a 20 day period in Australia, they went from their first death to 7. Adjusted for population, Italy accelerated 350x faster. Here in California, our first reported death was on March 4. Currently stands at 28. Over the 18 day period in Italy from their first death, they went from 1 to 463. Adjusting for population, 308x faster. It's worth nothing that we were the second epicenter in the US way back in Jan. 26th. No measures were place, giving the virus opportune time to spread, and it didn't "sweep."

Now, New York best resembles Italy in climate, pop density, social behavior, etc. They had their first reported case when California had their first reported death, and the virus has accelerated far faster in New York. But I don't think New York will resemble Italy in mortality rate. We got enough numbers from there to see how they're handling it, and their currently mortality rate is .07. But yes, we need to be concerned about them being overwhelmed, but I don't see that same fate for much of the US.

[pgardn]

Mine started Monday and steadily got worse through the week until I passed out last Saturday (split my nose open when my face met the floor). They just chalked that up to a vaso vagal response which is embarrassing since it's just medical terminology for fainted like a

It's like there is something going around

Ok you have a good sense of humor about fainting face first.
Hope you get better and stay that way.
Has to be scary if you have never fainted before and then fall like lumber.

[boutons_deux]

COVID19 By the Numbers: The View of a 20 Year Veteran of Pandemic Preparedness (UPDATEDX5)

Until 2018 I was on the front lines of pandemic preparedness, emerging infections and biodefense

and would be today if I hadn’t just started a new biotech focused on cancer immunotherapy,

We’re not big enough yet to pivot to COVID19.

Anyway, I have been consulting, watching the numbers carefully and I have been in touch with a network of former colleagues who are experts in different aspects of pandemic preparedness and are still on the front lines.

Take home messages —

Italy is the canary in the coal mine.

Don’t count cases (testing rate is still too low/spotty).

Count deaths per day.

It is a lagging indicator,

but the most solid trend for decision making.

If you want a worst case for nearly everybody in the world just follow the Italian trend in daily COVID19 deaths and push things out by a few weeks (Spain has a very similar trend just delayed).

It is anticipated that Italy will hit peak deaths per day in 2-3 weeks.

I am not going to guess here what that peak number will be or total deaths, although I and others have some ranges.

Italy is not as unique as we might want to believe,

they are just showing all of us the trajectory of the virus if unchecked.

They were late to social distancing/quarantine testing and they got hit hard and early.

Bergamo and the Lombardia region are being decimated and it’s not just because there are lots of old people, or culture, or hospital beds per 1000 citizens etc. etc.

It’s also because they likely had a huge number of infected people get together with uninfected people (perhaps some super spreaders) and the initial outbreak got ahead of any countermeasures that could be implemented.

Was Italy Late in Social Distancing and locking things down? —

We all were, but not by much.

There are stages of alert from WHO, CDC, and Italian Health Ministries.

Each is based on following data like the graph above.

By the time they were mobilized for flashing red, Bergamo was already lost.

This is how it happens.

This is what pandemic preparedness was/is all about.

When they hit, they can go very fast, especially locally.

So how did China and S. Korea get their outbreaks under control?

(NB I don’t trust China’s numbers during the Wuhan outbreak in terms of death toll. They did lie about the outbreak for a long time. Not hard to imagine them teasing those numbers down 5-10X for the official count after they got everything under control — more on that later).

What could explain these dramatic differences?

Genetic susceptibility or resistance is impossible to rule out and is always a competing hypothesis. However, it is unlikely to explain.differences this extreme.

The working model is S. Korea definitely got a big head start on testing and this allowed them to do smart quarantining and smart social distancing —

Take home message —

It is possible to snuff out this pernicious little bug,

but you need to act quickly and be lucky enough not to get caught in the potential black swan event(s) of Bergamo and Lombardia.

There was a UEFA Cup soccer match between Atalanta (Bergamo’s Team) and Valencia from Spain in Bergamo in February.

It is believed that around 1/3rd of the 120,000 citizens attended the game, while many more watched with large groups in bars etc. Atalanta won 4-1… This is a small town and they don’t get European Championship games for their team like almost ever.

It’s almost like a bioweapon was deliberately set off in Bergamo, although this is not at all a possibility,

the intensity of the disease is like a bomb went off.

So what does this mean for the U.S. and civilization as a whole?

Well, it’s much worse than we all hoped at the beginning and the numbers are very solid now.

Italy’s testing isn’t perfect, there are peculiarities with the demographics, the intensity of the initial outbreak appears extreme and perhaps even genetic factors are causing the deviation from S. Korea and China. That said,

we have a very good understanding of the worst case for this virus if you’re only a week or two late in social distancing.

No social distancing would look a lot worse.

The US, France, Spain etc. situations are trending the same way as Italy, but all other countries have a head start. Again… were we late?

Maybe a little but not by much.

However any state/city etc. that is not at NYC or LA levels of lockdown are making a huge mistake.

The slopes of the curves (deaths) for all have now been shown to be highly similar.

The only difference will be that everyone else has a head start on Italy so we need to trust the scientists and the math.

Take home message — Stay home as much as possible.

Keep distancing.

Be vigilant and ride this thing out.

Better 6 ft apart than 6 ft under (hat tip to Cambridge, MA, “6 ft/ apart dancing guy” for the joke —

Remarkably, I strongly believe that when we get through the summer we will see that this social distancing has also had a positive affect on influenza deaths and other communicable diseases… Something to ponder.

This is the most important fact.

If we distance earlier we can snuff these things out. We always knew this. The question is when?

Unfortunately, the Chinese Government literally ed us all on the timing by hiding the disease for so long.

Smart quarantining is more effective and much less costly than shutting down entire countries.

We do need another test that I don’t hear anyone talking about urgently enough too.

This is the test for whether you have been exposed to the virus and potentially have built up immunity.

The current test only registers positive if you have live virus in you.

Nearly 20 years ago I tried to propose a vision to the US government of private public partnerships in biomedicine

but there was never enough money by a factor of 100-1000 (compared to weapon systems)

Take Home — We could have been much better prepared.

However, the experts have already gamed this out so its now just a matter of execution and ramping up.

We’ve learned a lot with the COVID19 pandemic too.

There will be others in the future.

Perhaps the most creative thing we can do as a civilization is

figure out when and how we shut everything down and not crash the economy every time we need to do this.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/21/1929780/-COVID19-By-the-Numbers-The-View-of-a-20-Year-Veteran-of-Pandemic-Preparedness

[CosmicCowboy]

He wont be the last, on both sides. They need to allow vote by phone.

[Winehole23]

He wont be the last, on both sides. They need to allow vote by phone.

For.us too. Coronavirus will still be with us in November.

[SnakeBoy]

Ok you have a good sense of humor about fainting face first.
Hope you get better and stay that way.
Has to be scary if you have never fainted before and then fall like lumber.

Honestly I was mostly scared I had a nasty infected diverticulita, can be life threatening. Luckily I felt it coming on and tried lay on the floor, made it most of the way. Just happened to be on an outdoor no skid carpet we keep in the hall so my dog won't slip on the floor, it's not very forgiving on the skin I discovered lol.

[CosmicCowboy]

I am tall and susceptible to orthostatic hypotension. (Basically fainting like a if I stand up too fast) and took a dive on our tile floor a few years ago skidding about 10 feet on my face. Broke 3 ribs and smashed my nose/face. Splatted like a turd from a tall horse.

[Winehole23]

I am tall and susceptible to orthostatic hypotension. (Basically fainting like a if I stand up too fast) and took a dive on our tile floor a few years ago skidding about 10 feet on my face. Broke 3 ribs and smashed my nose/face.

Ow

[Nathan89]

Taking issue with this because it's bad logic to compare us to Italy. The comparison doesn't account for many, many variables. Not coming at you, but I'm getting sick of the "Omg, we're going to become Italy soon!" doom and gloom projections that is wrongly making a 1 to 1 comparison with the entire US. I think you posted in my thread comparing how the virus spreads in countries and states with different climates and population densities. I used the flu rate as an example of how much more hospitable virus transmission is in those "green areas." On this point, Italy's flu fatality is 10 times higher than ours. Their population is simply more susceptible to the grave outcomes of respiratory illness.



Or 1 percent. The flu mortality rate in the US is .01.

I find it curious that no one ever compares us to Australia? They didn't prepare and the virus hasn't "swept the nation." Climate, social behavior (i.e. mass transit vs. driving), and social interaction, and population density are big factors in virality. I've been pouring over case progression and comparing progression rates and such. Countries and regions in the green band accelerate far, far quicker from their first reported case and death than countries in the red bands.

For example, over a 20 day period, Italy went from one death to 827. Over a 20 day period in Australia, they went from their first death to 7. Adjusted for population, Italy accelerated 350x faster. Here in California, our first reported death was on March 4. Currently stands at 28. Over the 18 day period in Italy from their first death, they went from 1 to 463. Adjusting for population, 308x faster. It's worth nothing that we were the second epicenter in the US way back in Jan. 26th. No measures were place, giving the virus opportune time to spread, and it didn't "sweep."

Now, New York best resembles Italy in climate, pop density, social behavior, etc. They had their first reported case when California had their first reported death, and the virus has accelerated far faster in New York. But I don't think New York will resemble Italy in mortality rate. We got enough numbers from there to see how they're handling it, and their currently mortality rate is .07. But yes, we need to be concerned about them being overwhelmed, but I don't see that same fate for much of the US.

Wow. That's the first time I've read Italy's flu mortality rate. That's insane.

[hater]

if Trump
continues his silly daily briefings pretty much him and his entire “task force” will catch the bug

its bound yo happen if his charade continues

public figures are almost 100% lock to get it sooner or later

poor Dear Dr Facci already looks like a corpse. Trump will end up killing americas favorite doctor

[hater]

Trumpo should just stop playing doctor on tv

The claim that the anti-malaria drug (hydro-)chloroquine helps in SARS-CoV-2 infection cases comes from two Chinese studies which are only based on in-vitro tests on the virus and human cells. The doses were relatively high and chloroquine is know to have some bad side effects. There is also no sound way yet to get chloroquine into the lower lungs where the virus resides and where it would be actually needed.

[ElNono]

Rand Paul, couldn't happen to a nicer guy. Dude is a physician no less, high risk, but you know how this went: I'm a libertarian! gubmint can't keep me locked up!

The dangers of putting dogma over reason, smh... fortunately for Paul, despite he wanted to bomb the aid for everyone else, he'll get a nice and fat subsidized healthcare from big bad gubmint...

[vy65]

Taking issue with this because it's bad logic to compare us to Italy. The comparison doesn't account for many, many variables. Not coming at you, but I'm getting sick of the "Omg, we're going to become Italy soon!" doom and gloom projections that is wrongly making a 1 to 1 comparison with the entire US. I think you posted in my thread comparing how the virus spreads in countries and states with different climates and population densities. I used the flu rate as an example of how much more hospitable virus transmission is in those "green areas." On this point, Italy's flu fatality is 10 times higher than ours. Their population is simply more susceptible to the grave outcomes of respiratory illness.



Or 1 percent. The flu mortality rate in the US is .01.

I find it curious that no one ever compares us to Australia? They didn't prepare and the virus hasn't "swept the nation." Climate, social behavior (i.e. mass transit vs. driving), and social interaction, and population density are big factors in virality. I've been pouring over case progression and comparing progression rates and such. Countries and regions in the green band accelerate far, far quicker from their first reported case and death than countries in the red bands.

For example, over a 20 day period, Italy went from one death to 827. Over a 20 day period in Australia, they went from their first death to 7. Adjusted for population, Italy accelerated 350x faster. Here in California, our first reported death was on March 4. Currently stands at 28. Over the 18 day period in Italy from their first death, they went from 1 to 463. Adjusting for population, 308x faster. It's worth nothing that we were the second epicenter in the US way back in Jan. 26th. No measures were place, giving the virus opportune time to spread, and it didn't "sweep."

Now, New York best resembles Italy in climate, pop density, social behavior, etc. They had their first reported case when California had their first reported death, and the virus has accelerated far faster in New York. But I don't think New York will resemble Italy in mortality rate. We got enough numbers from there to see how they're handling it, and their currently mortality rate is .07. But yes, we need to be concerned about them being overwhelmed, but I don't see that same fate for much of the US.

I’ll take credit for advancing this point first, obviously, but this is really solid analysis.