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Then he should do the (right thing):::tender his resignation from his desk, gather his & he'll be Lyfted back to his home:::
Wife: "GD it, Tony. I told you."
Italy: 59,138 cases and 5,560 deaths
Texas: 618 cases and 6 deaths.
10% vs 1%
Then he should do the (right thing):::tender his resignation from his desk, gather his & he'll be Lyfted back to his home:::
Wife: "GD it, Tony. I told you."
thats what happens when system collapses
thus why countries like US and UK changed their minds on “taking it on the chin” and
going for herd immunity
IF US system collapses we will easily see similar death rate
UK unfortunately is ed.
Sometime after Vietnam we made a vow before God that we'd take the wounded & the maimed, but, we'd fight hammer & tong to delay Rod Serling's Godless assurance of the death spiral:::"...And into the dust that is always the end."
It not only works for War, but, for Corona.
Well, once the Big 3 Auto Makers switch over from cars to hospital mish-mash we'll be in like Flint.
I was thinking this might end up approaching our strategy post pearl harbor, tbh... there's not a war or visible foe here, but things like the DPA, and shifting industries to cope might come into high gear.
Just read last night Tesla/SpaceX are moving on to start building ventilators....
618 is more like 6000+
there is a lag, covid takes 2 - 8 weeks to kill
...and that is what the old man stated yesterday= "I've requested & industry has even offered, but, it will take a few weeks to switch over."
MSM knows this, but, attacked anyway under cover of the less than 400 dead count. At 400 MSM can afford to attack. At 800 a day we'll all be running for our lives.
it will be momths until we get GM ventilators right?
we dont have months
the system can collapse in weeks
We're at 412 right now.
and if you meant weeks
Trumps claim that we will have Chrysler ventilators in weeks is as bad or worse than having a vaccine in 4 months
Trump just needs to shut the up
because the criminal is aiming to PROFIT $$$
from pitting private donors against each other while things spiral out of control
When we're running for our lives at 800 per day it won't matter, we'll be too busy running, or, skinning our smokewagon's in the house & dispatching "little Debbie" to hide by grandma's headstone "The Searchers."
They pitted themselves...it didn't take the old man, Homer.
& it can't be too spiraled out:::Florida beaches & Central Park in NYC are jammed.
He does. Or at least, he needs to have somebody that reins him in. It's not that everything he says is wrong, it isn't, but you have to be measured, and you can't keep trying to bull your way through this. That isn't leadership.Trump just needs to shut the up
Let the health folks he has handle the health science questions. You don't have to talk or show your mug every time to reassure you have the best people tackling this.
Chris!
Go back, Chris!
Chris, go back!
...& I believe we'll have that vaccine in 4 months. & when we do MSM in association with the big shots will waive the vast lion's share of testing & more testing & caution. Oh, yeah, it'll be okay then to cast that caution to the winds because it will be (their) idea and not the old man's.and if you meant weeks
Trumps claim that we will have Chrysler ventilators in weeks is as bad or worse than having a vaccine in 4 months
Trump just needs to shut the up
youre adorable
Really good article.COVID19 By the Numbers: The View of a 20 Year Veteran of Pandemic Preparedness (UPDATEDX5)
Until 2018 I was on the front lines of pandemic preparedness, emerging infections and biodefense
and would be today if I hadn’t just started a new biotech focused on cancer immunotherapy,
We’re not big enough yet to pivot to COVID19.
Anyway, I have been consulting, watching the numbers carefully and I have been in touch with a network of former colleagues who are experts in different aspects of pandemic preparedness and are still on the front lines.
Take home messages —
Italy is the canary in the coal mine.
Don’t count cases (testing rate is still too low/spotty).
Count deaths per day.
It is a lagging indicator,
but the most solid trend for decision making.
If you want a worst case for nearly everybody in the world just follow the Italian trend in daily COVID19 deaths and push things out by a few weeks (Spain has a very similar trend just delayed).
It is anticipated that Italy will hit peak deaths per day in 2-3 weeks.
I am not going to guess here what that peak number will be or total deaths, although I and others have some ranges.
Italy is not as unique as we might want to believe,
they are just showing all of us the trajectory of the virus if unchecked.
They were late to social distancing/quarantine testing and they got hit hard and early.
Bergamo and the Lombardia region are being decimated and it’s not just because there are lots of old people, or culture, or hospital beds per 1000 citizens etc. etc.
It’s also because they likely had a huge number of infected people get together with uninfected people (perhaps some super spreaders) and the initial outbreak got ahead of any countermeasures that could be implemented.
Was Italy Late in Social Distancing and locking things down? —
We all were, but not by much.
There are stages of alert from WHO, CDC, and Italian Health Ministries.
Each is based on following data like the graph above.
By the time they were mobilized for flashing red, Bergamo was already lost.
This is how it happens.
This is what pandemic preparedness was/is all about.
When they hit, they can go very fast, especially locally.
So how did China and S. Korea get their outbreaks under control?
(NB I don’t trust China’s numbers during the Wuhan outbreak in terms of death toll. They did lie about the outbreak for a long time. Not hard to imagine them teasing those numbers down 5-10X for the official count after they got everything under control — more on that later).
What could explain these dramatic differences?
Genetic susceptibility or resistance is impossible to rule out and is always a competing hypothesis. However, it is unlikely to explain.differences this extreme.
The working model is S. Korea definitely got a big head start on testing and this allowed them to do smart quarantining and smart social distancing —
Take home message —
It is possible to snuff out this pernicious little bug,
but you need to act quickly and be lucky enough not to get caught in the potential black swan event(s) of Bergamo and Lombardia.
There was a UEFA Cup soccer match between Atalanta (Bergamo’s Team) and Valencia from Spain in Bergamo in February.
It is believed that around 1/3rd of the 120,000 citizens attended the game, while many more watched with large groups in bars etc. Atalanta won 4-1… This is a small town and they don’t get European Championship games for their team like almost ever.
It’s almost like a bioweapon was deliberately set off in Bergamo, although this is not at all a possibility,
the intensity of the disease is like a bomb went off.
So what does this mean for the U.S. and civilization as a whole?
Well, it’s much worse than we all hoped at the beginning and the numbers are very solid now.
Italy’s testing isn’t perfect, there are peculiarities with the demographics, the intensity of the initial outbreak appears extreme and perhaps even genetic factors are causing the deviation from S. Korea and China. That said,
we have a very good understanding of the worst case for this virus if you’re only a week or two late in social distancing.
No social distancing would look a lot worse.
The US, France, Spain etc. situations are trending the same way as Italy, but all other countries have a head start. Again… were we late?
Maybe a little but not by much.
However any state/city etc. that is not at NYC or LA levels of lockdown are making a huge mistake.
The slopes of the curves (deaths) for all have now been shown to be highly similar.
The only difference will be that everyone else has a head start on Italy so we need to trust the scientists and the math.
Take home message — Stay home as much as possible.
Keep distancing.
Be vigilant and ride this thing out.
Better 6 ft apart than 6 ft under (hat tip to Cambridge, MA, “6 ft/ apart dancing guy” for the joke —
Remarkably, I strongly believe that when we get through the summer we will see that this social distancing has also had a positive affect on influenza deaths and other communicable diseases… Something to ponder.
This is the most important fact.
If we distance earlier we can snuff these things out. We always knew this. The question is when?
Unfortunately, the Chinese Government literally ed us all on the timing by hiding the disease for so long.
Smart quarantining is more effective and much less costly than shutting down entire countries.
We do need another test that I don’t hear anyone talking about urgently enough too.
This is the test for whether you have been exposed to the virus and potentially have built up immunity.
The current test only registers positive if you have live virus in you.
Nearly 20 years ago I tried to propose a vision to the US government of private public partnerships in biomedicine
but there was never enough money by a factor of 100-1000 (compared to weapon systems)
Take Home — We could have been much better prepared.
However, the experts have already gamed this out so its now just a matter of execution and ramping up.
We’ve learned a lot with the COVID19 pandemic too.
There will be others in the future.
Perhaps the most creative thing we can do as a civilization is
figure out when and how we shut everything down and not crash the economy every time we need to do this.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/21/1929780/-COVID19-By-the-Numbers-The-View-of-a-20-Year-Veteran-of-Pandemic-Preparedness
One correction, there is an COVD19 antibody test developed at Mt Sinai Hospital in NY available now that is still ramping up in distribution. It’s a colorimetric ELISA test which is a type of test widely used including most hospital labs of size. Sinai is distributing reagents. The test serves at least three valuable purposes.
It identifies the distribution of disease to determine its true morbidity and mortality.
It identifies health care workers who have had the disease and are immune so they can treat the patients posing the highest risk and they don’t require the degree of PPE if there are shortages.
Patient with high antibody res plasma can be harvested for potential treatment of the most critically ill patients.
Last edited by picnroll; 03-22-2020 at 04:39 PM.
Mark my words:::Fauci, or, his replacement will stand up there, straight-faced and answer that question that will kill MSM to ask:::"Yes, most of the instances you do need 6 months to almost a year...(see, they won't talk about the 1 years to 18 months minimum we're hammering now, uh, uh.) for testing, but, this combination is not one of those instances, thankfully. Next question."
youre adorable
& there won't be any follow up, or, the Burger King grill to grill 'em. We'll roll out the band and celebrate. And the old man? "Get outta my in' way. Where's Kudlow. C'mon, Kud, the DOW, Kud, the DOW!"
bum will bend over and all will be right once & again.
Hydroxychloroquin + z-pak
https://www.instagram.com/tv/B-BCcuy...ource=ig_embed
I hope so. That’d drop the death rate to .1%.
Haven’t seen any sources on the 2-8 week thing. Care to share?
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