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  1. #5451
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Most in New York. I feared for them. Bright side is that the Worldometer starts their day at GMT time. So the count has been going for 18 hours "today." I think if the US in total can stay in the 100-170 deaths per day range, we'll be doing good. We have to remember that we've had flu seasons where there's been 80,000 deaths in a year, over 200 per day.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html
    How's come when I lodge (flu #'s) I'm cast down with the sodomites & put on [Ignore] lists, but, when you do it everyone is genuflecting?

    Me

  2. #5452
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    The Kushner Family Could Be Getting Very Rich Thanks to the Coronavirus

    The Kushner family’s ties to for-profit healthcare companies

    underscore the myriad of conflicts of interests that billionaire businessmen have,

    making them particularly unsuited to holding public office.


    https://www.mintpressnews.com/kushner-family-getting-very-rich-thanks-to-coronavirus/265914/


    Not responsive to the question. Try again.

  3. #5453
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Not responsive to the question. Try again.
    "for every ill wind blows good fortune for someone."

    Something like that.

  4. #5454
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    Not responsive to the question. Try again.
    why do you think I was answering your question?

  5. #5455
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    why do you think I was answering your question?
    Because you were quoting me.

  6. #5456
    Done with the NBA
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    How's come when I lodge (flu #'s) I'm cast down with the sodomites & put on [Ignore] lists, but, when you do it everyone is genuflecting?

    Me

  7. #5457
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I think it was Reck that shared this, but it has live updates:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

    While deaths are obviously the main barometer, how the number of cases e up is really what to keep an eye on, that's what can tilt the balance between normalcy and an overwhelmed system.
    They look to be using the worldometer data, I believe.

    Yes, but case e also e in testing. We're testing more now than ever.

  8. #5458
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    How's come when I lodge (flu #'s) I'm cast down with the sodomites & put on [Ignore] lists, but, when you do it everyone is genuflecting?

    Me
    Thing is, you can't trivialize this as another flu, even if it is another flu, because as I've told you, we can't handle TWO flus in the same season. People underrate how severe the flu really is. It isn't just the sniffles and a slight fever.

  9. #5459
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    I don't think we are on the same trajectory as those two. Doubt we have as high of an elderly population and/or population density as them. Theres also the warm weather theory. California got their patient zero in late January and their curve didnt take off like the hardest hit areas. Check out mid's thread for more on that. The shelter in place orders should help too. Not sure wtf Houston is thinking though.
    The warm weather theory is bull . Flu is already dropping and yet this is exploding. NOLA is going to be the next NYC and its not cold there.

    CA reacted early. Thats why they've somewhat leveled off.

    Its not the ing weather.

  10. #5460
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

    Look at the individual trajectories by country. Weather isn't a significant limiter or cause of acceleration.

  11. #5461
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    So what I read (and I don't remember the source outright, but I suppose it can be googled if interested), is that the US has a hospital bed capacity of ~960,000, of which 65% is in use.

    That would leave roughly ~350k beds (being generous here). I suspect that doesn't break evenly among states though, but also not everybody is going to need hospitalization.
    Rural areas have far fewer beds, but also far fewer people. Not sure how it breaks out per capita. The good thing is not everything is going to happen at once. If we get it under control in NY, we can shift resources elsehwere. The key is keeping it in check as much as possible everywhere.

    There's so little foresight in our leadership at the federal level right now.

  12. #5462
    Done with the NBA
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    We need mass antibodies tests.

  13. #5463
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    The warm weather theory is bull . Flu is already dropping and yet this is exploding. NOLA is going to be the next NYC and its not cold there.

    CA reacted early. Thats why they've somewhat leveled off.

    Its not the ing weather.
    No we didn't. We had two cases in Los Angeles county way back in Jan. 27, a month and half before New York had their first confirmed case. It was business as usual here all the way up until early March, and it was only the Bay Area that issued a shelter-in-place order. So for literally a month, all of California was still packing clubs, casinos, beaches, bars, restaurants, etc, etc, and there hasn't been any kind of "explosion."

    As to Louisiana, they're the outlier, not the rule. Most other regions in that warm weather band have not had "explosions." And we don't know the particulars of the Louisiana situation. If it crept its way into a nursing home and killed 20 people, that would skew the data. And what about Florida?

    This virus isn't magical. I don't know why people believe it's going to behave differently than other coronaviruses and flu viruses.

    On my bolded point, oh.

    The news of their deaths Monday came just hours before state officials announced a second cluster of cases had been discovered at a Donaldsonville retirement home.

  14. #5464
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    I think it was Reck that shared this, but it has live updates:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgylp3Td1Bw

    While deaths are obviously the main barometer, how the number of cases e up is really what to keep an eye on, that's what can tilt the balance between normalcy and an overwhelmed system.
    Testing is going up massively so that number of cases is until test availabilty and testing criteria are stable. Deaths overall and in spcific geographic locales with a two week lag period is the only useful criteria to me until test availability and testing criteria are stable.

  15. #5465
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Most in New York. I feared for them. Bright side is that the Worldometer starts their day at GMT time. So the count has been going for 18 hours "today." I think if the US in total can stay in the 100-170 deaths per day range, we'll be doing good. We have to remember that we've had flu seasons where there's been 80,000 deaths in a year, over 200 per day.

    https://www.cnn.com/2018/09/26/healt...-bn/index.html
    Was this due to overwhelmed hospitals and medical facilites across the nation, or the deadly nature of some flu viruses on both young and old?

  16. #5466
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    They look to be using the worldometer data, I believe.

    Yes, but case e also e in testing. We're testing more now than ever.
    Yeah, testing is also important to know how well social distancing is working out, and compare between states with different policies right now

  17. #5467
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Thing is, you can't trivialize this as another flu, even if it is another flu, because as I've told you, we can't handle TWO flus in the same season. People underrate how severe the flu really is. It isn't just the sniffles and a slight fever.
    Then we should've treated "the flu" like we're treating Corona.

    Instead for decades we've watched over a million Americans die from it without batting at eye lash.

  18. #5468
    Done with the NBA
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    We need mass antibodies tests.


    That would mean over 3 million people in New York have already need infected. It should not be that difficult to conduct a study to determine if this is total BS or has some validity.

  19. #5469
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    We need mass antibodies tests.
    This is good news, but, again, dependent on how fast and how much the virus spreads. 1 million infected vs 3 million infected at a time, even with that number, can make a huge difference.

  20. #5470
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    Rural areas have far fewer beds, but also far fewer people. Not sure how it breaks out per capita. The good thing is not everything is going to happen at once. If we get it under control in NY, we can shift resources elsehwere. The key is keeping it in check as much as possible everywhere.

    There's so little foresight in our leadership at the federal level right now.
    Look at Eagle, Gunnison and Pitkin with ski areas that attract foreigners. Eagle started March 2 courtesy of an Italian. Ski areas in Eagle shut down March 17, now locals only. County has a population of 55,000 and now as of the 23rd 80 cases. Steady increase per day rate but not wildly exponential growth but way, way more than the healthcare system, which is good but focused almost entirely on orthopedics and oncoology with average remaining services can handle. For now they're shipping to Denver but when Denver’s saturated they’re fooked.

    https://covid19.colorado.gov/case-data

  21. #5471
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Then we should've treated "the flu" like we're treating Corona.

    Instead for decades we've watched over a million Americans die from it without batting at eye lash.
    No you should not because of the number of people that become infected fairly quickly.
    The potential for overall deaths has been clearly a worry for epidemiologists.
    This is a point that people are now swinging and missing on.

    And we have no vaccine.

  22. #5472
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Then we should've treated "the flu" like we're treating Corona.

    Instead for decades we've watched over a million Americans die from it without batting at eye lash.
    we have a vaccine that reduces the risk by about 50%

  23. #5473
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

    Look at the individual trajectories by country. Weather isn't a significant limiter or cause of acceleration.
    Measuring by acceleration doesn't give a clear picture. Acceleration could be completely due to accelerated testing. Also, small numbers accelerate greater than large numbers. If a country who hasn't provided any testing or limited testing data and then suddenly performs ten thousand tests, their acceleration will look like it has exploded on a plot.

    Here's the world of meter data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    You can easy correlate case count and death rate to this map (done by a virology department):

    https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/...to-Thrive.html

    You might argue that those warm weather areas are "behind," but no. Australia's first death was back on March 2. They're currently at 7 deaths, and they've only started getting "serious" in the last week. New York was a month and half behind California.

  24. #5474
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    That would mean over 3 million people in New York have already need infected. It should not be that difficult to conduct a study to determine if this is total BS or has some validity.
    i dont think you can extrapolate the tested :: positive ratio to the entire population because the people getting tested tend to be symptomatic, right?

  25. #5475
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    we have a vaccine that reduces the risk by about 50%
    Before we had inoculation, the worst version of the flu back in 1918 had a death rate of 3.4% to ~20%. Hard to gauge if worse than this particular virus, as medicine wasn't what it is today then. But still pretty deadly.

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