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  1. #5476
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    From the link:

    "Tests per day is a key number to track (along with actual cases and, sadly, deaths). But total tests were a key for South Korea slowing the spread of COVID-19. South Korea has been conducting 15,000 tests per day with a 51 million population, so the US needs to test around 100,000 per day."

    Hopefully we have every intention to blow past that standard and not settle at the South Korea benchmark.
    Appears we are on the right track


  2. #5477
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Was this due to overwhelmed hospitals and medical facilites across the nation, or the deadly nature of some flu viruses on both young and old?
    Probably a bit of both. We're also terribly unhealthy as a population. Overweight and obesity can lead to all kinds of health problems, as we know.

  3. #5478
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Measuring by acceleration doesn't give a clear picture. Acceleration could be completely due to accelerated testing. Also, small numbers accelerate greater than large numbers. If a country who hasn't provided any testing or limited testing data and then suddenly performs ten thousand tests, their acceleration will look like it has exploded on a plot.

    Here's the world of meter data. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    You can easy correlate case count and death rate to this map (done by a virology department):

    https://www.medschool.umaryland.edu/...to-Thrive.html

    You might argue that those warm weather areas are "behind," but no. Australia's first death was back on March 2. They're currently at 7 deaths, and they've only started getting "serious" in the last week. New York was a month and half behind California.
    I think it's a bit early, even if it looks promising. One would hope it has an effect. To counter Australia, Brazil has less cases than Australia, but more deaths, and is also not in the band. Australia also has just about as many cases as Canada.

  4. #5479
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    i dont think you can extrapolate the tested :: positive ratio to the entire population because the people getting tested tend to be symptomatic, right?
    If that’s true they could very easily determine that.The ELISA antibody test is right there in NY at Mt Sinai Hosp. Just randomly test a couple thousand asymptomatic patients or alternatively tested patients who weren’t COVID 19 positive plus random non- tested selection.

  5. #5480
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    we have a vaccine that reduces the risk by about 50%
    We accepted that to the tune of over a million Americans dead, but, we take a fit at less than a 700 dead with Corona.

  6. #5481
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Probably a bit of both. We're also terribly unhealthy as a population. Overweight and obesity can lead to all kinds of health problems, as we know.
    I dont think recent flu deaths (ie not the Spanish flu) were due to the nature of overwhelming systems like this virus has the potential of doing.
    I dont think its even close. The insidious nature of the symptoms and no vaccine is clearly what concerns us about this virus.

    Hoping this thing suc bs to the spring like most flu and colds.

  7. #5482
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    We accepted that to the tune of over a million Americans dead, but, we take a fit at less than a 700 dead with Corona.
    Do you think it's going to "stop" at 700, Cub? No.

  8. #5483
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Rural areas have far fewer beds, but also far fewer people. Not sure how it breaks out per capita. The good thing is not everything is going to happen at once. If we get it under control in NY, we can shift resources elsehwere. The key is keeping it in check as much as possible everywhere.

    There's so little foresight in our leadership at the federal level right now.
    Going to guess though rural areas are older. Keeping it in check isn't going to happen, when you get governors spending more time on prayer podcasts than managing. It is going to spread to red states that aren't doing anything to prevent it, and kill a lot of people.

  9. #5484
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    We accepted that to the tune of over a million Americans dead, but, we take a fit at less than a 700 dead with Corona.
    I think you know what potential means... and when did one million die from the flu in a season with a vaccine available.
    Now if you want to argue the potential of this virus is being way overrated and why you think so be my guest.
    Pulp has a least given some reasonable stuff. And you have Manny giving reasons why it should not be underrated.

    Why does Trump apparently think we are overrating the potential? Because the cure is clearly worse than the disease itself.

  10. #5485
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    No we didn't. We had two cases in Los Angeles county way back in Jan. 27, a month and half before New York had their first confirmed case. It was business as usual here all the way up until early March, and it was only the Bay Area that issued a shelter-in-place order. So for literally a month, all of California was still packing clubs, casinos, beaches, bars, restaurants, etc, etc, and there hasn't been any kind of "explosion."

    As to Louisiana, they're the outlier, not the rule. Most other regions in that warm weather band have not had "explosions." And we don't know the particulars of the Louisiana situation. If it crept its way into a nursing home and killed 20 people, that would skew the data. And what about Florida?
    This virus isn't magical. I don't know why people believe it's going to behave differently than other coronaviruses and flu viruses.

    On my bolded point, oh.
    Other corona viruses don't care about the heat. That's exactly the point. MERS and SARS, for instance.

    California did act quickly. They were the first to issue a state of emergency. They didn't fully shut down, but that's not the only actions you can take early on.

    As for Louisiana, they currenty have 1400 cases. Thats comparable to many more populous states even though they're right in the middle of the states when it comes to average. Not sure how the you think you can downplay that, but go right ahead.

  11. #5486
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I think it's a bit early, even if it looks promising. One would hope it has an effect. To counter Australia, Brazil has less cases than Australia, but more deaths, and is also not in the band. Australia also has just about as many cases as Canada.
    Yeah, but I wouldn't put much faith in Brazil's healthcare system. Brazil also 6.5x times as many people as Australia, so their death rate is lower per capita (so maybe their healthcare isn't that bad). I'd also chalk up their fewer case numbers to performing fewer tests. But in any event, developing countries are at risk regardless of weather because of the comparative quality of their healthcare. Not to mention the population density in areas filled with favelas. That could get nasty for Brazil.

  12. #5487
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    I think you know what potential means... and when did one million die from the flu in a season with a vaccine available.
    Now if you want to argue the potential of this virus is being way overrated and why you think so be my guest.
    Pulp has a least given some reasonable stuff.

    Why does Trump apparently think we are overrating the potential? Because the cure is clearly worse than the disease itself.
    No, over the past two decades over a million Americans have died from the regular flu.

  13. #5488
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    We need mass antibodies tests.
    But the Oxford results mean that the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the unrecognised spread of Covid-19 over more than two months. If the findings are confirmed by testing, then the current restrictions could be removed much sooner than ministers have indicated.
    the results "if confirmed", etc etc. We will see how well the model plays out in the next week or two.

  14. #5489
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Do you think it's going to "stop" at 700, Cub? No.
    Of course not.

  15. #5490
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    No, over the past two decades over a million Americans have died from the regular flu.
    Okay.
    This one was estimated to have the potential to give us 1 million deaths in one season by some models.
    I personally went with some of the lower estimations at that time 1/3 of a million, because of the fact we might know much more by then, and then has turned to now.

  16. #5491
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Yeah, but I wouldn't put much faith in Brazil's healthcare system. Brazil also 6.5x times as many people as Australia, so their death rate is lower per capita (so maybe their healthcare isn't that bad). I'd also chalk up their fewer case numbers to performing fewer tests. But in any event, developing countries are at risk regardless of weather because of the comparative quality of their healthcare. Not to mention the population density in areas filled with favelas. That could get nasty for Brazil.
    I'm hopeful, but I don't think it's conclusive right now. We can chalk things up to a number of things, but better be safe and ready in case it doesn't work out.

  17. #5492
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Tired: Dr. Fauci
    Wired: Dr. Oz

  18. #5493
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    For more context on Lousiana, they've got more cases than TX despite having conducted only half the tests that TX has. Louisiana is going to be a gigantic problem soon.

  19. #5494
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Also not much of difference in 1st world and 3rd world healthcare if there are no supplies. A lot of the US is going to seem pretty ing 3rd world soon.

  20. #5495
    Believe.
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    Also not much of difference in 1st world and 3rd world healthcare if there are no supplies. A lot of the US is going to seem pretty ing 3rd world soon.

    healthcare?


    that is an “en lement”

    gotta cut it to the bone!

  21. #5496
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    The idea that this thing is gioing to react like normal flue regarding the weather ignores the fact that flu right now is clearing out because of the annual cycle and yet this one is doing anything but. If it was following the same heat related rule set as the flu, this pandemic wouldn't be an issue RIGHT NOW!

  22. #5497
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    We need mass antibodies tests.
    They're coming. Finland came up with one just a few days ago, need to gear up for mass production.

  23. #5498
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    Other corona viruses don't care about the heat. That's exactly the point. MERS and SARS, for instance.
    Science says otherwise:

    Abstract
    The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.

    https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

  24. #5499
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Other corona viruses don't care about the heat. That's exactly the point. MERS and SARS, for instance.

    California did act quickly. They were the first to issue a state of emergency. They didn't fully shut down, but that's not the only actions you can take early on.

    As for Louisiana, they currenty have 1400 cases. Thats comparable to many more populous states even though they're right in the middle of the states when it comes to average. Not sure how the you think you can downplay that, but go right ahead.
    That state of emergency came on March 5th, a month and a week after two patients were confirmed in Los Angeles county. I live just outside, and for a whole month, nothing changed in SoCal after those reported cases. Clubs, Casinos, etc, etc, filled. All logic says that "ticking bomb" should've exploded by now. Why hasn't it? Yes, there's factors favorable that are reducing transmission, like pop density, not much use of public transit, average age and health of residents, etc.

    Actually, the jury is still out on how the virality of coronaviruses changes in warmer weather.

    For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible. The size of the change is expected to be modest, and not enough to stop transmission on its own. Based on the analogy of pandemic flu, we expect that SARS-CoV-2, as a virus new to humans, will face less immunity and thus transmit more readily even outside of the winter season.
    What does "somewhat" mean? What does "modest" mean? What does more "readily" mean? See, there's no hard numbers here, so best we can do is correlate the data we have. Don't think I'm suggesting that the virus is just going "die" off in the Summer, but even if transmission rate is reduced by a "modest" 30 percent, that'll be big. One data point we have is that New York's test rate comes back 28% positive vs. 8% for the rest of the country:

    - "<1% of all mortality is less than 50 years old"
    - 28% positivity rate in NY / 8% for the rest of the country"

    - Deborah Brix
    New York's pop density is also a big, big factor here.

    I'm not downplaying anything, just countering the doomsday "up-playing" that is trying to extrapolate an outcome for every region everywhere based on what is happening in Italy (why hasn't Mexico become the next Italy?). The data we have so far is suggesting some pretty clear trends.

  25. #5500
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Science says otherwise:

    Abstract
    The main route of transmission of SARS CoV infection is presumed to be respiratory droplets. However the virus is also detectable in other body fluids and excreta. The stability of the virus at different temperatures and relative humidity on smooth surfaces were studied. The dried virus on smooth surfaces retained its viability for over 5 days at temperatures of 22–25°C and relative humidity of 40–50%, that is, typical air-conditioned environments. However, virus viability was rapidly lost (>3 log10) at higher temperatures and higher relative humidity (e.g., 38°C, and relative humidity of >95%). The better stability of SARS coronavirus at low temperature and low humidity environment may facilitate its transmission in community in subtropical area (such as Hong Kong) during the spring and in air-conditioned environments. It may also explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (such as Malaysia, Indonesia or Thailand) with high temperature and high relative humidity environment did not have major community outbreaks of SARS.

    https://www.hindawi.com/journals/av/2011/734690/

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