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Louisiana also had not one but two nursing home coronavirus bombs go off, is an infrastructural cluster , and still has nearly half as many cases as Washington - the closest comp in terms of nursing home spread.
Some are clearly saying it will only be an issue for two weeks or so. There is a time line that is turning political right now.
Louisiana also had not one but two nursing home coronavirus bombs go off, is an infrastructural cluster , and still has nearly half as many cases as Washington - the closest comp in terms of nursing home spread.
Why hasn't X become the next Y? Because the outbreaks don't move instantly from one location to another. Mexico is going to fare badly. So are many places in the US. Mexico doesn't have nearly as much travel to China as the United States. But its there now, and its spreading, and its going to be bad. This is just a weird way of thinking about things. You're asking why one part of the forest hasnt' burned like another part has when the fire hasn't been there as long. Do you realize we're just at the start of a situation that is likely to go on for 18+ months? In 6 months we're going to have a ton of places that were as bad and some worse than lombardi. That's not doomsday, that's just the truth.
Population density definitely plays a roll, but most people live in places with high population densities As high as NY? No. But comparable to Lombardi? Absolutely.
There's no reason to believe that Italy is unique in it trajectory so I'm not sure why you think you can counter that?
And vy's article really relies on the biological phenomena that happens in our nose and throat when humidity and temperature go up.
Our bodies ability to produce and move mucus out of the path to our lungs works much better in humid hotter environments. Well functioning respiratory systems catch so much crap in mucus and actually move it out of the trachea and back up into the mouth to be either swallowed or rid of in other ways. Same further up the tubes. I have to put some faith in this basic non immunological part of our defense.
Washington has had it for far longer. Introduction to WA was in early January. With doubling rates as the are, Louisiana is going to pass Washington before the social distancing effects are fully realized.
You can't make any accurate statements about seasonality. Influenza is seasonal here, year round elsewhere. The other 4 endemic human coronaviruses are seasonal. SARS and MERS are irrelevant as they were both failed mutations. Why there is seasonality in respiratory viruses is still poorly understood.
Also cannot draw any conclusion by northern vs southern hemisphere cases as we are now entering the transition period in regards to seasonality of respiratory viruses.
I'll continue to hope the change of seasons brings relief.
"We'll see what happens" - POTUS
Yeah, that fact is being overlooked here. Why hasn't Florida (which has a similar climate) and greater population density "gone off?" They were still spring breaking it up a week ago. There's other reasons why the flu doesn't transmit as much in the summer:
It is thought one reason why flu spreads less readily in summer is that people spend less time together in confined spaces. In particular, it could be linked to school closures, says John Edmunds, also at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6HdY5Deyu
The symptoms could especially suck at 8000 foot elevation.
density seems to play a factor regardless of climate. and NY/NJ alone is going to make Lombardy/Milan look like a Mediterranean cruise... no wait...
And from the POTUS.
The cure is worse than the disease itself.
No, you definitely can't do that. That calculation was based on the the 3200 hospitalized and the study I was responding to speculating that 1 in 1000 people with Wuhan virus are hospitalized.
My dude, 38C and RH of 95 is a combo not found in any climate around the world. That temperature is 100 degrees F with a dewpoint of 95. The heat index is 185 degrees. So sure, I'll grant you that in places wit a heat index of 185 F are safe from COVID 19. Sadly, they're also safe from humans.
See post #5506
Biologist are not entirely confident with only the crowding phenomena.
I have presented another in response to vys article
Florida has almost the exact same number of cases as Louisiana. They are also not looking good. I think you're not realizing how many places across the country are going to be really badly off in a short period of time.
You seem to be just guessing rather than looking at the data we have the moment and using that to forecast. I'll counter with California again. California probably has the most frequent (or maybe second behind NY) back-and-forth with China in the country as far as air travel, tourism goes. After Washington, we were the second ground zero, with two cases appearing in LA almost two months ago on Jan. 26. Italy's first confirmed cases were Jan. 30th. Italy went into lockdown quicker, and yet, their death rate is 6800 to 43 over the same time period. Australia has a large Chinese immigrant population, as well. Plenty of travel each way. 7 deaths over the past 20 days. If the Italy trend was imminent, it would've happened by now in these regions. "Just wait!" isn't a compelling counterargument.
This is fair, but we can say that it is at the very least not as limited seasonally as the flu. Otherwise, ti would be dying down right now. It's not doing that, so it is overcoming the same seasonal problems that plague the flu. Will we hit a temperature point where it is a limiting factor? I don't think so, otherwise we wouldn't have seen spread in tropical nations and we have seen just that.
Point is the virus loses stability as temperature increases.
Now people are getting to the core of why biology is such a compared to chemistry or physics.
Even in the lab, things are terribly difficult to control, way too many variables so looking back on past data has to be questioned as well.
Its all in the way people emphasize different ideas in their personal modeling, thus peer review can be very important.
Also, never do biology once at close down shop with an answer.
There also hasn’t been enough testing done in Louisiana to draw any conclusions from it. 6% of those tested in Washington are positive. 20% in Louisiana. The sample size there (Louisiana) is so small as to be meaningless.
You keep countering with California while ignoring that California has acted early enough to possibly bend their curve. Same with Washington. I'm not sure what else you think is lowering the explosiveness of growth in those communities. Are you arguing that its heat? In Santa Clara county? Cause um, the bay area isn't exactly warm. Same thing with Seattle.
THe date of introduction isn't nearly as important as the date the infection reaches a critical mass for widespread community transmission.
Italy certainly isn't a given for every place. With proper action you can avoid that. But Florida and Lousiana havne't been taking the same kind of actions as they have in California. Look, you can disagree, and that's fine, but we'll check back in a couple of weeks. Hope you're right.
Number of cases can be a result of increased testing. Let's see how many people Florida has tested vs. Louisiana.
Florida: 15547/1412 positive. 9 percent positive rate.
LA: 8603/1388 positive. 16 percent rate.
Let's look at these numbers per capita:
FL: .000067/1000
LA: .00027/1000
LA's rate is about 4x higher.
Its a curve. Its not viable at really low temps, becomes more viable, then less due to recognition proteins probability of losing the correct shape for binding due to "molecular shaking and breaking" at higher temps.
And it differs for different viruses because they have different recognition proteins.. There are very few proteins that work well at high temperatures which is why the bacteria that live and thrive in close to boiling water is so interesting. Viruses for the most part, are extraordinarily delicate. Most are really poor outside and exposed to sun.
If one were to look at this from a virus point of view, you want to be in a cell and producing more viruses. A virus does not want to be encapsulated and ready for transfer to a new body. This is a very scary period in the cycle of a virus. Or even inside a body looking for a cell to attach to ready be snatched away by defense systems inside the host.
called it sadly
My masters work was all about atmospheric chemistry. Good luck nailing down the variables there. It's all a bunch of hand waving trying to figure out pathways for chemical reactions. Limiting them in a lab environment isn't really possible so you essentially work out the statistical pathways which I'm not sure is all that different from much of the work involved with this type of situation. The statistics involved with viral spread seem pretty ing similar to the reactions I had to learn about.
I'm not sure why you think this helps your case? This means that there are more hidden cases in Lousiana and the true number is higher. Why would you think that is a good thing? But even if Florida is half as many cases as Louisiana right now with exponential growth and doubling times measured in days, that doesn't mean much. They're a few days behind. That's it.
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