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  1. #5526
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    What new industries will be employing millions? Seems like if a new manufacturing facility is being built, they'd start with robots.
    small businesses would also jump in to make masks, gloves, other equipment

    a whole new Epidemiology dept will be made in USA(or expand CDC) may r a Corona/flu only

    cretion of flu/fever clinics completely separate from hospitals/regular clinics

    apps to track cases and notification(tracing)

    the whole air travel industry will have to completely change

    same for cruise (if it ever comes back)

    temperature readers everywhere

    restaurant industry will also change

    and IF we ever want to have concerts/ballgames attended this will also completely change

    so many industries will be created after this. remember a vaccine will not work on mutated viruses (as well) so corona is here to stay and we will forever have outbreaks

    time to jump nigas

  2. #5527
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    This is fair, but we can say that it is at the very least not as limited seasonally as the flu. Otherwise, ti would be dying down right now. It's not doing that, so it is overcoming the same seasonal problems that plague the flu. Will we hit a temperature point where it is a limiting factor? I don't think so, otherwise we wouldn't have seen spread in tropical nations and we have seen just that.
    It's completely fair not to compare it exactly to influenza. Here is a chart that might give some hope though. Of course we have no clue what happened the last 4 times a coronavirus became endemic to humans so it's all a guess. Maybe they raced through the population year round and then eventually evolved into a seasonal virus.


  3. #5528
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    My masters work was all about atmospheric chemistry. Good luck nailing down the variables there. It's all a bunch of hand waving trying to figure out pathways for chemical reactions. Limiting them in a lab environment isn't really possible so you essentially work out the statistical pathways which I'm not sure is all that different from much of the work involved with this type of situation. The statistics involved with viral spread seem pretty ing similar to the reactions I had to learn about.
    Yep and thats why I stick with the biology for the most part. The statistics is a for epidemiologists trying to put the right info into their models. And then how to weight the info... a mess, but better than nothing.

    We will learn.

  4. #5529
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Oh , and if FL has 1/4 of the cases of LA, then they're all of a week behind LA. Exponential growth is a .

  5. #5530
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    It's completely fair not to compare it exactly to influenza. Here is a chart that might give some hope though. Of course we have no clue what happened the last 4 times a coronavirus became endemic to humans so it's all a guess. Maybe they raced through the population year round and then eventually evolved into a seasonal virus.

    Well lets hope.

  6. #5531
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    There also hasn’t been enough testing done in Louisiana to draw any conclusions from it. 6% of those tested in Washington are positive. 20% in Louisiana. The sample size there (Louisiana) is so small as to be meaningless.
    Sample sizes of thousands of people is plenty to do statistical analysis on and make statements about with a relatively good range of uncertainties. Its why public polling works with only hundreds to thousands of respondents, for instance.

  7. #5532
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Yep and thats why I stick with the biology for the most part. The statistics is a for epidemiologists trying to put the right info into their models. And then how to weight the info... a mess, but better than nothing.

    We will learn.
    LOL, after that work I moved away from chemistry. It's not for me. Plus field work in that research area takes you to places with air pollution. My current work lets me go to mountains instead.

  8. #5533
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    You keep countering with California while ignoring that California has acted early enough to possibly bend their curve. Same with Washington. I'm not sure what else you think is lowering the explosiveness of growth in those communities. Are you arguing that its heat? In Santa Clara county? Cause um, the bay area isn't exactly warm. Same thing with Seattle.

    THe date of introduction isn't nearly as important as the date the infection reaches a critical mass for widespread community transmission.

    Italy certainly isn't a given for every place. With proper action you can avoid that. But Florida and Lousiana havne't been taking the same kind of actions as they have in California. Look, you can disagree, and that's fine, but we'll check back in a couple of weeks. Hope you're right.
    I live here. No one took this seriously (in Southern California) until Newsom issued the statewide soft lockdown. My point with California is that the virus was allowed to spread freely in Los Angeles County for over-a-month (anecdote, I know about 10 casino workers who at about the same time all came down with textbook symptoms). The average is 5.2 days for symptoms to present, so it's not like we're waiting for that time bomb to go off. Based on how this virus seems to work, the time bomb should've went off before the soft lockdown. I beg the question why didn't it?

    My conclusions here is that: The virus's rate of transmission is way overstated (theorized R0 of 1/2.3), warmer weather does affect transmission, and population density plays a huge role. Los Angeles County isn't actually that population dense.

    Now yes, I do completely agree that the Bay Area is a different situation. They have the 2nd largest pop density in the country, they use mass transit more than most, and their climate is close to the troubling green band per the University of Maryland. My overall point is that not every region everywhere is destined to become Italy. There's some regions that fit the profile and we should worry about those, but I do not think Florida nor Texas are trending toward the Italy situation. I do not think Australia will become Italy. To reiterate, I've already stated that I'm highly concerned for densely populated, mass transit using countries and regions in that green band, so I'm not taking it lightly (fearful for the UK, right now), but I don't think we're all destined to that fate.

  9. #5534
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    It's completely fair not to compare it exactly to influenza. Here is a chart that might give some hope though. Of course we have no clue what happened the last 4 times a coronavirus became endemic to humans so it's all a guess. Maybe they raced through the population year round and then eventually evolved into a seasonal virus.

    Pretty cool.

    But Group A strept is a bacteria, not a virus.

  10. #5535
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    I live here. No one took this seriously (in Southern California) until Newsom issued the statewide soft lockdown. My point with California is that the virus was allowed to spread freely in Los Angeles County for over-a-month (anecdote, I know about 10 casino workers who at about the same time all came down with textbook symptoms). The average is 5.2 days for symptoms to present, so it's not like we're waiting for that time bomb to go off. Based on how this virus seems to work, the time bomb should've went off before the soft lockdown. I beg the question why didn't it?

    My conclusions here is that: The virus's rate of transmission is way overstated (theorized R0 of 1/2.3), warmer weather does affect transmission, and population density plays a huge role. Los Angeles County isn't actually that population dense.

    Now yes, I do completely agree that the Bay Area is a different situation. They have the 2nd largest pop density in the country, they use mass transit more than most, and their climate is close to the troubling green band per the University of Maryland. My overall point is that not every region everywhere is destined to become Italy. There's some regions that fit the profile and we should worry about those, but I do not think Florida nor Texas are trending toward the Italy situation. I do not think Australia will become Italy. To reiterate, I've already stated that I'm highly concerned for densely populated, mass transit using countries and regions in that green band, so I'm not taking it lightly (fearful for the UK, right now), but I don't think we're all destined to that fate.
    Bro and you're accusing ME of guessing?


    We'll revisit this in a couple of weeks.

  11. #5536
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    Soo when are we actually gonna start testing people on a large scale again ?

  12. #5537
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    Tired: Dr. Fauci
    Wired: Dr. Oz
    Dr. Fauci is a Never Trumper, a Deep State agent. Why, oh, why does the old man keep hiring these s who mean him absolutely no good?

  13. #5538
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I'm not sure why you think this helps your case? This means that there are more hidden cases in Lousiana and the true number is higher. Why would you think that is a good thing? But even if Florida is half as many cases as Louisiana right now with exponential growth and doubling times measured in days, that doesn't mean much. They're a few days behind. That's it.
    My point is that LA might be a unique situation with an anomalous amount of cases per population for yet unknown reasons. California, Florida, and Texas are seeing similar rates of infection, but LA's rate is much higher. LA is the outlier, not the rule.

    I don't like the appeal to exponential growth here because if Florida tests 5 times the amount of people tomorrow as they have so far, and if results in a cases doubling result, what actually exponentially grew was the testing not the relative number of cases. Case rate actually declined, i.e. if I run a thousand tests today and it reveals 100 positives and then run five thousand tests tomorrow and it reveals a 200 positives, case number grew 3 times, but case rate dropped from 1/10 to 1/25. This is what these "scary" graphs aren't considering.

  14. #5539
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Soo when are we actually gonna start testing people on a large scale again ?
    When they're properly screened by medical personnel.

    They're inundated with smart asses who've been cruising the countryside the last fortnight and now want to get right, set their minds at ease:::"I'll never do it again. But, let me test so I can find peace, please? Then I'll stay home & behave myself. I just need a negative."

  15. #5540
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    I live here. No one took this seriously (in Southern California) until Newsom issued the statewide soft lockdown.
    thats wildly anecdotal

    the office im working at (i've been working remotely since july) closed and had everybody work from home well before newsom's policy

  16. #5541
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Bro and you're accusing ME of guessing?


    We'll revisit this in a couple of weeks.
    I'm working off trends per how the virus is spreading in different climates and population densities. You seem to think everywhere will become Italy. I just don't see that. I get you want to err on the side of caution, and we should probably guard against becoming Italy, because what do we have to lose at this point? But we should believe nor fear we'll become Italy.

  17. #5542
    Done with the NBA
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    .

  18. #5543
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    thats wildly anecdotal

    the office im working at (i've been working remotely since july) closed and had everybody work from home well before newsom's policy
    You're fortunate, 21. A lot of companies claimed to permit their employees to work from home, but, a good portion never actually did that. Instead sent their employees to the Unemployment Office.

    Another portion started to let their employees work from home, but, quickly realized they were losing their ass near as bad as if they just sent them to the Unemployment Office to begin with...& sent them to the Unemployment Office.

  19. #5544
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    My point is that LA might be a unique situation with an anomalous amount of cases per population for yet unknown reasons. California, Florida, and Texas are seeing similar rates of infection, but LA's rate is much higher. LA is the outlier, not the rule.

    I don't like the appeal to exponential growth here because if Florida tests 5 times the amount of people tomorrow as they have so far, and if results in a cases doubling result, what actually exponentially grew was the testing not the relative number of cases. Case rate actually declined, i.e. if I run a thousand tests today and it reveals 100 positives and then run five thousand tests tomorrow and it reveals a 200 positives, case number grew 3 times, but case rate dropped from 1/10 to 1/25. This is what these "scary" graphs aren't considering.
    this blew up around mardi gras, that's why louisiana is ed

  20. #5545
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    My masters work was all about atmospheric chemistry.
    I remember this - and you're a great resource. I don't think anyone here is a virologist, epidemiologist, or anything of the like -- so it's more or less re s trying to jerk themselves off.

    That said, I understand your point about 38C/95RH not existing on earth. However, let's take Houston as an example. Houston averages highs of 80F from April to October. The average high in June, July, and August is above 90. Living here for almost 10 years, I know those numbers routinely pop up above 100 in those months. The average humidity is about 75%.

    This was the study's conclusion:

    In this study, we showed that high temperature at high relative humidity has a synergistic effect on inactivation of SARS CoV viability while lower temperatures and low humidity support prolonged survival of virus on contaminated surfaces. The environmental conditions of countries such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are thus not conducive to the prolonged survival of the virus. In countries such as Singapore and Hong Kong where there is a intensive use of air-conditioning, transmission largely occurred in well-air-conditioned environments such as hospitals or hotels. Further, a separate study has shown that during the epidemic, the risk of increased daily incidence of SARS was 18.18-fold higher in days with a lower air temperature than in days with a higher temperature in Hong Kong [24] and other regions [15–17]. Taken together, these observations may explain why some Asian countries in tropical area (with high temperature at high relative humidity) such as Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand did not have nosocomial outbreaks of SARS (Tables 1 and 2(a)–2(c)). It may also explain why Singapore, which is also in tropical area (Table 2(d)), had most of its SARS outbreaks in hospitals (air-conditioned environment). Interestingly, during the outbreak of SARS in Guangzhou, clinicians kept the windows of patient rooms open and well ventilated and these may well have reduced virus survival and this reduced nosocomial transmission. SARS CoV can retain its infectivity up to 2 weeks at low temperature and low humidity environment, which might facilitate the virus transmission in community as in Hong Kong which locates in subtropical area (Table 2(e)). Other environmental factors including wind velocity, daily sunlight, and air pressure, had shown to be associated with SARS epidemic, should also be considered [16, 17]. The dynamics of SARS epidemic involves multiple factors including physical property of virus, outdoor and indoor environments, hygiene, space, and genetic predispositions [10, 15–17, 24, 25]. Understanding the stability of viruses in different temperature and humidity conditions is important in understanding transmission of novel infectious agent including that of the recent influenza Apandemic H1N12009.
    Again, you're the expert on this so if you say those conditions aren't found, I'm going to believe you. However, the conclusion drawn is that those conditions (heat + humidity) do affect virus transmission as compared to cooler and dryer conditions. That's why the article concludes that Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand are less prone. So, my question to you is, why is Houston any different? Do you think that you need weather conditions at the experiment's level to slow viral spread - or - that the hotter and more humid you are, the harder it will be for the virus to survive?

  21. #5546
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    Sample sizes of thousands of people is plenty to do statistical analysis on and make statements about with a relatively good range of uncertainties. Its why public polling works with only hundreds to thousands of respondents, for instance.
    True, but that wasn't my point though. You'd agree that a sample size of 8,603 is going to be less accurate, on average, than a sample size of 33,933, right?

  22. #5547
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    thats wildly anecdotal

    the office im working at (i've been working remotely since july) closed and had everybody work from home well before newsom's policy
    Casinos would be the perfect spreading environments. They were ALL open until March 14, with I think San Manual being the first to close. Morongo just closed on the 17th or 18th. Where's the "explosion?" Why didn't the "explosion" happen when the virus was freely spreading after those Jan. 26th confirmed cases in Los Angeles county?

    Up until March 11th, Casinos were basically just sanitizing the machines as their precaution:

    https://www.pe.com/2020/03/11/how-so...o-coronavirus/

    Symptoms start showing on average about 5.2 days after infection. Why isn't a New York type rush happening on the area's hospitals? Casinos turn over hundreds of thousands of people every week.

  23. #5548
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    this blew up around mardi gras, that's why louisiana is ed
    Oh that was Feb 25th, I didn't think about that. Fits well with incubation period.

  24. #5549
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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    I'm working off trends per how the virus is spreading in different climates and population densities. You seem to think everywhere will become Italy. I just don't see that. I get you want to err on the side of caution, and we should probably guard against becoming Italy, because what do we have to lose at this point? But we should believe nor fear we'll become Italy.
    If you ignore the rest of the US, NY/NJ alone is going to be worse than Italy.

  25. #5550
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    And re: exponential growth:

    Exponential growth would require that the rate of infection keep growing and an accelerating pace. Stagnant or linear growth is not exponential. Decreased, however slight, growth is not exponential either.

    13.62586605
    15.58901683
    12.4303233
    15.86046512
    15.15261628
    14.78106808
    16.96837514
    14.9765325
    14.1947323
    12.37206308
    12.5306874
    12.33622332
    10.01669865
    10.73189941
    10.4535129
    11.62511652
    12.60346932
    12.95446425
    14.15036987

    These are the percentages of positive tests for the US from March 4 to the 22nd. These reflect the increases in testing. By way of example, there were approximately 866 tests with either a positive or negative result (103 remained pending) on March 4. That number rose to 7,031 tests with results (563 pending) on March 11. On March 18, the numbers were 73,956 tests with a positive or negative result (2,538 remained pending). And on March 22, there were 225,351 tests with results (2,842 remained pending). As many have said, the numbers were expected to rise with more testing.

    The numbers show a consistent range of positive results of about 12%. The percentage of positive results has, so far, peaked at about 16% on the 10th, dropped down to 10.5% on the 18th, and has ticked up to 14% on the 22nd. What these numbers show is the percentage of positive results hovering in the 10-16% range. What they do not show is exponential growth -- and that's telling as the number of tests ramped up from about 900 on the 4th to over 225,000 on the 22nd.

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