Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[hater]

this is bad nigas

I called it but this is bad

[DarrinS]

We're detecting more cases because we're testing more. And this obviously does have an impact on the rate - especially if you just look at a couple of days. But we know we're only seeing a fraction of the total cases, and the increases are exactly what you'd expect to see in a distribution that is growing exponentially. The question is the testing growth outpacing the spread of the virus? I guess thats possible, but we'd know really soon after the testing ramp up because you see an initial growth, then a drop. We did see that for one day last week, but afterwards its just been the same 20-30% increase each day. Each day that you get with that same rate the more confidence in it people should have.

Furthermore the rate is similar to places around the world that had more testing form the get go. So it fits what you would expect to see.

I think the true growth rate is burried in the ramped up testing numbers and difficult to determine at this point.

[Mark Celibate]

I don't see how 10 percent increases (in case rate) each day is "exponential growth?" Here's Italy's plot:

https://imgur.com/a/pyOUcOn

Last two days, their growth rate has been 8 percent over the previous number. Exponential growth is a constantly doubling, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, etc. Or are you defining exponential growth differently? Or are you plotting it on a longer timeline? And their growth rate day over day has declined over the past week.

Not necessarily, just means that the percent increase over each interval is around the same. The math is that w/e daily percent increase that is (let's say 13%), the # of new cases each day will just keep climbing since, as the total cases increases, then 13% of that total case number also goes up. Although you probably already know that part. Technically, if it were a 10% increase each day that would be exponential growth.

However, Italy's percent increase appears to be declining based on the link you posted

[DarrinS]

what does iden y politics have to do with healthcare

Exactly

[Reck]

Gotcha question....and he failed.

When you are asked a re ed question like “is the cure worse than the problem” and you don’t tell that person to off with that said stupid question you’re doing a bad job.

[vy65]

Milan is only 70 sq miles and only has a about 1 million population. Its a tiny tiny fraction of Lombardy. Houston's area is much larger, I think an order of magnitude at least (600+ sq miles). If the outbreak were confined to Milan I'd agree with you, but its not. Its in the whole region.

I'm trying to find something that breaks down Lombardy's cases by city, but can't find anything. Have you?

[midnightpulp]

what does iden y politics have to do with healthcare

From the Green New Deal outline:

The Green New Deal is not only a major step towards ending unemployment for good, but also a tool to fight the corporate takeover of our democracy and exploitation of the poor and people of color.

What's that even mean? And the money here is spent on a bunch of sociologists to figure out "solutions." Like, there shouldn't be tax payer funding in studying how implicit microaggressions impact the workplace or some other field. I'm a bleeding heart, but this is just

https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show...alAwards=false

[vy65]

From the Green New Deal outline:



What's that even mean? And the money here is spent on a bunch of sociologists to figure out "solutions." Like, there shouldn't be tax payer funding in studying how implicit microaggressions impact the workplace or some other field. I'm a bleeding heart, but this is just

https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show...alAwards=false

I'm agnostic on all this, but I think the counter is to look at what the environmental justice movement is all about.

[MannyIsGod]

I think the true growth rate is burried in the ramped up testing numbers and difficult to determine at this point.

Well if you're right we'll see a drop before long. But everyday we see growth at this rate is a bad sign.

[spurraider21]

From the Green New Deal outline:



What's that even mean? And the money here is spent on a bunch of sociologists to figure out "solutions." Like, there shouldn't be tax payer funding in studying how implicit microaggressions impact the workplace or some other field. I'm a bleeding heart, but this is just

https://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/show...alAwards=false

again, what does this have to do with healthcare?

[Thread]

Gotcha question....and he failed.

When you are asked a re ed question like “is the cure worse than the problem” and you don’t tell that person to off with that said stupid question you’re doing a bad job.

Biden can dish it, he just can't take it.

[MannyIsGod]

I'm trying to find something that breaks down Lombardy's cases by city, but can't find anything. Have you?

Nah, I haen't found anything that specific. Let me know if you do. If its mostly confined to Milan then I would grant your point but the fact that they've always talked about the region as opposed to the major city there kind of bodes against that.

[midnightpulp]

I'm agnostic on all this, but I think the counter is to look at what the environmental justice movement is all about.

I'm okay with studying everything and anything, but I think studying the impact of microaggressions is something that should come from a private/university grant. If someone came to me and said give me a dollar to fund something like that, I would just laugh. That 500 grand could've bought 10 ventilators for New York.

[Will Hunting]

Biden can dish it, he just can't take it.

Not sure if he can even dish it anymore. People don’t realize the old Joe Biden that was great at dishing it is gone.

[midnightpulp]

again, what does this have to do with healthcare?

Tax dollars funded that study. Those tax dollars could've been better spent on healthcare. If the NSF is going to fund frivolous junk like that, then their funding should be cut, meaning more funding for healthcare.

[vy65]

Nah, I haen't found anything that specific. Let me know if you do. If its mostly confined to Milan then I would grant your point but the fact that they've always talked about the region as opposed to the major city there kind of bodes against that.

[midnightpulp]

Well if you're right we'll see a drop before long. But everyday we see growth at this rate is a bad sign.

I guess we'll see in two weeks. I'll leave with this. Places outside New York will get hit some. Case numbers will rise. But I'm just not buying places like Texas, Florida, etc are on Italy and New York's path for all the reasons mentioned. But again, we'll see.

[MannyIsGod]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/st...82356499857409

[spurraider21]

Tax dollars funded that study. Those tax dollars could've been better spent on healthcare. If the NSF is going to fund frivolous junk like that, then their funding should be cut, meaning more funding for healthcare.

that's quite the stretch... just seems like you wanted to rant about random things that bother you, which is fine. just surprised you didnt throw in safe spaces in there

[Chris]

[boutons_deux]

March 25.

“The economy can recover.

Once a person is dead, that’s it,” WTF

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina

told our White House correspondent Peter Nicholas,

in response to the president’s suggestion that the country reopen soon.

-- email from The Atlantic

[midnightpulp]

that's quite the stretch... just seems like you wanted to rant about random things that bother you, which is fine. just surprised you didnt throw in safe spaces in there

Why is that a stretch? 500K buys 10 ventilators. How important are those right now? Trying to "Philo" about funding microaggressions. It's pseudoscience. I'm sure you know what a "microaggression" is, right? It is something implied, not concrete. And what is and isn't a microaggression is determined by individual perception. Like if you ask a tall black guy if he's good at basketball. You might be inquiring because he's tall, but he might think you're inquiring because he's black (I also find it funny that anyone would be insulted by what is essentially a complement).

[boutons_deux]

And after the World Health Organization announced that the mortality rate for the novel coronavirus is about 3.4 percent,

Trump swatted away the claim based on his “hunch” infallible!

that “only a fraction of 1 percent” will die from the disease.

-- email from The Atlantic

[spurraider21]

Why is that a stretch? 500K buys 10 ventilators. How important are those right now? Trying to "Philo" about funding microaggressions. It's pseudoscience. I'm sure you know what a "microaggression" is, right? It is something implied, not concrete. And what is and isn't a microaggression is determined by individual perception. Like if you ask a tall black guy if he's good at basketball. You might be inquiring because he's tall, but he might think you're inquiring because he's black (I also find it funny that anyone would be insulted by what is essentially a complement).

you can see my post history mocking the concept of microaggressions. i dont care for them. i just think it was strange to bring up iden y politics as it relates to this crisis

if you can claim anything is tangentially related to healthcare because they involve some kind of government funding then i think its just being disingenuous

[spurraider21]

you specifically said "this event" should serve as a lesson for it