I'll clarify my thoughts about the warm weather theory. I don't think regions in that particular band will come away unscathed. Viruses still transmit in warm weather, and factors like population density, social behavior, average health and age of the citizens, and health care response will also affect how each region breaks out (heavily populated countries with not-so-great healthcare systems are at risk, i.e. Indonesia). I just believe they won't break out as much, maybe by a factor of 3 to 5x less (correlating to flu rates. New York's flu frequency rate is 7.5x than Texas's, for instance).
I think the fact that the overwhelming majority of breakouts are happening at a certain climate profile is encouraging. Is this just the result of data lag from your Mexicos, Indonesias, Australias, Indias, etc? I guess time will tell.
So where are the ventilators now?
A troubling fact about Louisiana:
They've had 75% as many hospitalizations from the flu as California had confirmed cases. Adjusting for pop, .0028/1000. Their flu hospitalization rate alone is 5x times higher than California's flu confirmed case rate and 2.8x higher than Texas's case rate. So this appears to be another region (like Italy) that might be more susceptible to respiratory illness.The 2018-2019 flu season, which ended in May, is the longest one on record since the CDC started tracking the flu 20 years ago. Last year in Louisiana, there were more than 14,000 hospitalizations and 1,400 deaths from flu-related illness.
CDC ranked LA as the worst in the nation for flu activity just as recent as last October.
https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_ro...99a028327.html
New York Struggles With Coronavirus, U.S. Deaths Top 1,000
A makeshift morgue was set up outside Bellevue Hospital, and the city’s police, their ranks dwindling as more fall ill, were told to patrol nearly empty streets to enforce social distancing. Another was erected outside a hospital in Elmhurst, Queens:
Tim Hogan
✔@timjhogan
.@nytimes has video from a hospital in Elmhurst, Queens. It is horrifying.
“We had to get a refrigerated truck to store the bodies of patients who are dying.”
“Five ventilators...there’s a mythical 100 ventilators out there that we haven’t seen.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-hospitals.amp.html …
3,563
9:23 PM - Mar 25, 2020
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/new-york-coronavirus-us-deaths_n_5e7c230bc5b6cb08a927d265?ncid=newsltushpm gnews
btw, reading about the 2009/H1N1 as indication where we are going in 2020, Dell hospital in Austin had to set up a tent as a "field hospital" to care for the huge volume of swine flu victims
^, yeah, I always felt the Imperial study was doomsday, probably extrapolating from early data. Now Ferguson says,
So a bad flu season for them, and this is in the face of the UK basically filling pubs, public spaces, and their mass transit system as little as 3 days ago. Now he's suddenly an optimist?UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.
Read more: https://www.newscientist.com/article...#ixzz6HoLGdFe4
Yeah, yeah, I'm just regular Joe and he's an "expert," but there's other experts who don't share his initial conclusions.
I do disagree with the tweeter that we should start opening schools and "getting back to business" soon to "save the economy!" I still believe it's prudent to err on the side of caution, because it isn't worth a single immunosuppressed child dying or getting severely ill so the stock market can go back up. There's no vaccine or herd immunity.
Maybe it isn't just temperature we should focus on since the data on temperature/humidity effects on these viruses is poorly understood. Yet we know for a fact seasonality of respiratory viruses exists.
I have read some saying it is is UV intensity that is more responsible for quelling these types of viruses since they are quickly damaged by UV light.
Thoughts?
“I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it,” the president went on. He started talking about his tour of the CDC he’d taken before his talk to the press. “Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.”
This is helpful...
Be consistent, be honest about changing situations, and above all make sure the speaker thoroughly understands the subject at hand.
-cdc manual to public speaking concerning outbreaks
The WH needs to sit Trump down and duct tape him to a chair for 3 months.
More anecdotes
This is why longer hours (Northern hemisphere) with sunlight(contains uv light) is preferable.
It is also why proper sterile labs have UV lights to turn on when one leaves the room.
UV is wonderful at causing screwups in DNA and RNA (this virus is a RNA virus)
A fantastic sterilizer that can get at places wiping down cannot.
Also for you multicellular humans: wear your sunscreen, uv causes mutations that lead to skin cancer.
Addendum
UV only penetrates small distances into surfaces so it should be still be great at killing virus left on surfaces outside.
Outside is really preferable imo, as long as distance is maintained....Thankfully for those of us who live in spread out cities like SA. Hit those bike trails.
I happened to read about UV light for killing viruses
the UV from the sun, if you can get enough (you can't), isn't strong enough to kill viruses
also, if the virus is on your skin, you're infected, so disinfecting your skin with a powerful UV lamp (UV is of course a cause of skin cancer) does nothing for the virus inside.
Anecdotally, I've noticed obesity is common in those interviewed that have serious illness. Yesterday when they did the local story on the 44yr old woman who died I was wondering about her preinfection health and they showed her picture, yep very heavy.
Obesity is well understood risk factor with influenza, not just greater risk of serious illness but obese people are more infectious when they have the flu.
Fourteen Days. That’s the Most Time We Have to Defeat Coronavirus.
These decisive measures can prevent a decade of dislocation and extraordinary levels of deaths.
By Ezekiel J. Emanuel, vice provost of global initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania.
March 23, 2020
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/contributors/us-coronavirus-response.html
Military is seeing a lot of cases. As their resources get overrun have to wonder if the SA private sector will be a fall back position. They’re already looking at contingencies.
Not bad boots!
No one should sit under a UV light or just sit outside expecting the UV is going to penetrate or kill stuff on your skin (other than your skin cells themselves)
They're extrapolating that one small random sampling and taking their best model. I'd be very leery of doing that without getting a much more robust set of random tests.
We definitely need random testing though.
Primary issue I have with the opposition here is that if we do flatten and get back to some normal within weeks, there will be the usual "media hoax" cries and conspiracy theories bandied about by the usual suspects. We can refer to the Diamond Princess cruise ship as an example of just letting the virus do its thing without precaution, and it infected 20 percent of passengers. That's a troublesome figure, and something our shaky medical system would have no hope of handling. Point is, if we flatten it'll be because of these social distancing and stay-at-home measures, not because the virus "wasn't really that infectious or serious."
Where I agree with the opposition is that this isn't the second coming of Ebola and will kill "millions," as some experts have "modeled." I think we'll eventually find a mortality and hospitalization rate around flu levels. But as I've said, an additional flu plus the regular flu is nothing to take lightly.
They aren't saying UV light to cure an infection. The theory is that since the primary mode of transmission is respiratory droplets the higher UV light reduces the ability of the virus to remain infectious in the air. These are non enveloped rna viruses, they have zero protection from UV light in the environment.
The project I was on during my masters work was looking at the viability of bacterial spores (not anthrax but similar) after they were airborne for awhile. We were looking to see if the ongoing chemical reactions in the atmosphere made them nonviable and really what we found was that UV was the main driver of this. But this was for airborne aerosols that were always exposed to sunlight if it was available (meaning it wasn't cloudy or night time). This obviously changes in different environments ie indoors or inside of a human body.
Frankly, I would be shocked if UV DIDN'T degrade a a virus. UV is highly energetic which is why it breaks molecular bonds (and why it damages human cells) so it should definitely have a detrimental effect on the virus. But if the virus doesn't spend a lot of time in the air anyway since its not really airborne (the bacterial spores we looked at ARE transmitted in an airborne manner which is why this was important), then I'm not sure how much UV exposure it gets. That part I have absolutely no idea about.
But yeah UV is going to be bad for virus viability.
...
From 500,000 to 20,000 projected deaths in the UK. That's quite the turnaround. Plus that number states that half of the 20k would've died within the year. That would put the US at 100k if we had the same rate. Sounds a lot better than 1-2 million.
China just closed borders to foreigners
fears of 2nd wave grow
its not over even in china while we are not even in diapers yet
this will be a long ing fight and it will get much worse before we even see a glimmer of hope
There are currently 8 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 8 guests)
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
