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maybe china leveled up tbqh
15 Chilling Photos of LA as a Ghost Town
https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v74n8a/15-chilling-photos-of-la-as-a-ghost-town?utm_source=Iterable&utm_medium=email&utm_camp aign=curated_vice_daily_1023202
maybe china leveled up tbqh
MP is right about one thing. I wish we could look at CA data seperated into the two main regions because SoCal is so much worse off than NoCal because of the way Santa Clara reacted. You can look at the county by county numbers and see that the LA region is now > 2/3rds of the cases in the state even though Santa Clara was the initial hotspot.
Its not exactly a good situation there.
The US (NYC is ~ half of all US cases) became the epicenter of the pandemic today.
That the rosy cheeked optimists ITT are wishcasting/mimimizing it as a historically bad extra flu season does not inspire much confidence.
Speaking of 100,000 extra deaths as if to becalm and console is straight up macabre.
Fauci just came out yesterday and felt is might be seasonal. Is he credible?
The University of Maryland's warm weather study (headed by a leading epidemiologist who cracked HIV) illustrates slower transmission in warmer weather (echoing Fauci, or rather, Fauci echoed those findings). Are they credible?
Back to the Oxford study that challenges the doomsday Imperial study. They feel Covid transmission will naturally slow as it runs out of new people to infect because we are massively, massively understating the amount of infections+recoveries that have happened? Are they credible?
While Nobel Laureate Michael Levitt might not exactly be an epidemiologist, I think he knows data. He feels we'll recover much sooner than anticipated. Credible?
Oh, and the scientist behind the Imperial College study that everyone takes as gospel just downgraded the estimated death count from 500K to 20K in about 24 hours (for the UK). The UK had the absolute worst response out of any Western country. He's appealing to the UK's recent lockdown efforts as the reason for the new projection, but how the can he project anything from something that has only been in effect for 24 hours? Does that make sense to you? So maybe, just maybe, many of these leading experts are more wrong than you think they are. Seems you're cherry picking your points-of-view because you conflate an optimistic outlook for the "Trumpian" outlook that has us beating this by Easter.
I've stated ad nauseum that a flu plus another flu (let's assume when all the data is in that Covid is about as severe as the flu) is a BIG issue and nothing to take lightly. I stated I expect there to be some nasty peaks. But what makes sense to me, per the Oxford study, is that I don't think there will be an indefinite extrapolation of new cases and deaths because who knows how many people have already had it, recovered, and won't get infected again. Why I don't buy the 3 million dead in year scenarios.
^^^re: The Imperial College study, MP ignores that the initial study had estimates as low as 20,000, presuming aggressive countermeasures.
He also ignores that the UK abruptly changed it's policy from do nothing to a strict lockdown like, last week
There seems to be some obliviousness here. 20,000 excess deaths in the UK is not a trivial number.
Internal Emails Show How Chaos at the CDC Slowed the Early Response to Coronavirus
The CDC
fumbled its communication with public health officials and
underestimated the threat of the coronavirus even
as it gained a foothold in the United States
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/cdc-coronavirus-slow-response-trump?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_ca mpaign=Feed%3A+tpm-news+%28TPMNews%29
This is a problem why? Data is data and you have little issue posting Nate Silver tweets., or some statistician there,
Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over.
They did not go into lockdown last week. 3 days ago.
But those countermeasures have to be applied at a specific time early in the outbreak, that's what all the epidemiologists are saying. Time is the most crucial resource here, and the UK pissed it away. Oh, but now they're suddenly "best case scenario" after having a terrible response and only getting strong 3 days ago? Do you think there's enough data yet from those 3 days to make any kind of accurate projections? The UK is raring toward an inflection point, so how the can Ferguson just flippantly decide they are now on the path to the best case scenario? As I asked Manny, does that make sense to you?
There's no obliviousness, but 20K is sure a lot better than 500K.
You goofed.
It's ok. Happens to all of us.
Ah off, I been pelon for years and now you're going to rub that in my face too?Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over.
Yeah I didn’t think that through...should have gotten mine cut before it really bad.Man, I'm going to have some long ass hair when this is all over.
The 100k is based on the 20k in the Uk. That 20k was said to be made up of 10k people that would've died this year. I'd say that's a phenomenal outcome compared to 1-2+ million. It's not like we have a cure so our only strategy is to not overwhelm the hospitals and hope for the best. Well this one of the better possible outcomes.
Sorry dude.Ah off, I been pelon for years and now you're going to rub that in my face too?
Mine is completely gray, so it's not like I'll look like Jason Momoa.
I got a haircut the week before everything went down but I've set a personal record for not shaving.
Los Angeles County has a significant amount more people than Santa Clara County. 5x the population. I don't know how you can miss the per capita detail. Death per capita- LA County: .0021/1000, Santa Clara County: .010/1000. I know you're a smart guy, but I think you're looking for everything and anything to make the doomsday scenario more probable. LA County's situation is actually good here as their per capita death rate and case rate is very low. FWIW, Los Angeles's patient zeroes actually arrived only a day after Santa Clara's. And testing has grown exponentially:
https://imgur.com/a/QLCV6x3
Among several things I wish I had done. I probably should have seen a dentist, too.
Sorry dude.
Mine is completely gray, so it's not like I'll look like Jason Momoa.
Sam elliott can make it work,tbh
LA and surrounding counties doing pretty good, considering the population.
Goofed how? How does the UK go from worst case to best case in matter of 3 in days (now data lag doesn't seem to matter)? Instead of appealing to authority ("Because the smart guy said so!"), explain your reasoning? Seems the doomsday crowd has little problem countering expert opinion that doesn't toe the doomsday line.
Luckily my sister n law came over and cut mine and the kids last week
Man, I wish I had that voice.
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