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  1. #6526
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    i've long criticized sensationalist news (typically cable news, and the product of the 24 hour news cycle), i dont think covid is an exception. just because there are some people overreaching doesn't mean going full baghdad bob is the appropriate countermeasure

    again, i dont pretend to be an expert on the issue, and you wont see me give my own projections or expected death figures or anything like that. but imo despite your constant comments about how you "aren't downplaying" it... your recent post history has seemed to be a constant downplaying of it

    worldometers had the US as 268 deaths yesterday. latest update is already showing us at 398 today. we aren't a direct analogue to italy, but they havent even peaked yet (919 deaths today to 712 yesterday) and we are still "behind them" on the curve, in general. still appears things are still going to get worse before they get better, especially if POTUS says " it" and states go back to business as usuals (many states are STILL doing that)
    But I'm not downplaying it. "Downplaying it" would be saying "meh, this thing is just a light flu and will go away by Summer." I never stated such. I posited the warm weather/UV theory (based from an expert study) not to suggest that areas in those regions will be unaffected, but they won't be affected nearly as much as densely populated areas in that "green band." And this is very important, because if CA, TX, FL become their own NYs, we're ed (I don't see that happening because the population densities will be enough to prevent that. New York City is taking the brunt, while the rest of NY state hasn't seen much acceleration: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en).

    The Italy comparisons I still don't like because we have to remember we have 5 times as many people. I have no clue what our peak will be, but Italy is probably the worst of the worst case scenarios, even if our peak is 2000, that is half of Italy's peak per capita. And remember the data lag factor. We really don't know when those people actually died. They could've passed last week and are only being registered now.

    Agree, some states need to be dealt with by firm hand commanding their governors to issue shelter in place.

  2. #6527
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Keep up that positivity D!

    I don't know if it's so much positivity as it is skepticism of doomsday alarmism.

  3. #6528
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    New York getting skulled ed now. But at least we'll be the first or one of the first states to level this thing off.

  4. #6529
    Done with the NBA
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    New York getting skulled ed now. But at least we'll be the first or one of the first states to level this thing off.
    Without the government shutting down I could very easily wait out these other people tbh. Unfortunately, my family would not take the proper precautions.

  5. #6530
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    New York getting skulled ed now. But at least we'll be the first or one of the first states to level this thing off.
    You're from there, right? Are you in the city?

  6. #6531
    I want some NASTY monosylab1k's Avatar
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    I don't know if it's so much positivity as it is skepticism of doomsday alarmism.
    It’s mostly doing what Trump told you to do.

  7. #6532
    Done with the NBA
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  8. #6533
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    It’s mostly doing what Trump told you to do.
    Don't even know what you're talking about. ^TDS

  9. #6534
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    But I'm not downplaying it. "Downplaying it" would be saying "meh, this thing is just a light flu and will go away by Summer." I never stated such. I posited the warm weather/UV theory (based from an expert study) not to suggest that areas in those regions will be unaffected, but they won't be affected nearly as much as densely populated areas in that "green band." And this is very important, because if CA, TX, FL become their own NYs, we're ed (I don't see that happening because the population densities will be enough to prevent that. New York City is taking the brunt, while the rest of NY state hasn't seen much acceleration: https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en).

    The Italy comparisons I still don't like because we have to remember we have 5 times as many people. I have no clue what our peak will be, but Italy is probably the worst of the worst case scenarios, even if our peak is 2000, that is half of Italy's peak per capita. And remember the data lag factor. We really don't know when those people actually died. They could've passed last week and are only being registered now.

    Agree, some states need to be dealt with by firm hand commanding their governors to issue shelter in place.
    im not necessarily predicting that we're going to have more deaths per day than italy at our respective peaks... just that in our relative "cycles"... we are still behind italy, and they dont appear to have peaked yet, so we are still some ways away before we peak here, if we assume that our overall progress will correlate (even if the numbers arent the same)

  10. #6535
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    thats great to hear

  11. #6536
    I want some NASTY monosylab1k's Avatar
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    Don't even know what you're talking about. ^TDS
    The indoctrinated rarely do

  12. #6537
    I want some NASTY monosylab1k's Avatar
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    Trump: No big deal!
    DarrinS: No big deal!

    Trump: Well actually it is a big deal!
    DarrinS: OMG WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE

    Trump: jk lol no biggie
    DarrinS: we good everybody!

  13. #6538
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    thank you for your valuable contribution, mono

  14. #6539
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    You're from there, right? Are you in the city?
    Yeah, I am.

    But in the least impacted borought.


    EDIT:
    Second least. First being Staten Island

  15. #6540
    I want some NASTY monosylab1k's Avatar
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    thank you for your valuable contribution, mono
    As if you posting charts and graphs of pie in the sky optimism is worth

  16. #6541
    Done with the NBA
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    If you survive Corona it's a duty to donate your plasma and apparently you can do that every 28 days. The ratio of people that beat the virus vs those that need to be hospitalized is very beneficial for this treatment.

  17. #6542
    Done with the NBA
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    Surprised China hasn't infected their concentration camp prisoners and turned them into a blood bank tbh.

  18. #6543
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    I don't know if it's so much positivity as it is skepticism of doomsday alarmism.

    Atleast I dont think anyone here has said the worlds ending

  19. #6544
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    There is doctor in NY who claims he's treated 350 patients with hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and z-pak, and said all 350 recovered without needing to be hospitalized.
    Great.

    Who?

    Where?

  20. #6545
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    MannyIsGod: "Data, data, data. This is how we make projections. I'll even post the site I'm using which is a good resource."

    "Hmm, the data shows Texas in a good situation."

    MannyIsGOD: ": your posts are real ty! We can't rely on the data! We have to rely on these anecdotes posted on a college football message board! That's the better way to do it."
    None of the data shows that we're in a good position. We're not TESTING people and you're like oh the numbers are low this is great.

    None of this is good. None of it.

  21. #6546
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Sadly, 9 out of 10 people are wasting resources. The fear is worse than the disease, tbh.
    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    has the state by state projections. Biggest loser so far:New York and michigan.

    A lot of this seems to be based on current figures, often underreported.

    NY will have four times more hospitalizations at peak than it as beds total.

    It is about to get a LOT worse there.

    Florida's peak isn't until May, per this model.

    Nationwide peak has a very high standard deviation at the peak though, i.e. a very wide range, meaning a lot of uncertainty about it.

  22. #6547
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Seems like you're trusting anecdotes over data. How do we know those patients rushing Houston area hospitals actually have the virus when you just said yourself "we're not testing anyone." Flu symptoms are similar to this virus. People could be overreacting and visiting the ER for so much as a light cough (that isn't caused by the virus). Point is WE DON'T KNOW.

    But yeah, my posts are ty looking for the bright sides, which is based on the data YOU'VE INVOKED YOURSELF AND THE EXPERTS YOU CITE INVOKE. Now "I'm doing it wrong." in' please. Go lecture somewhere else.
    You're hopeless.

  23. #6548
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    yea the fact he said things are going real good in texas make me nervous as
    Its ing idiocy. We're all locked down, they don't have any tests, and the healthcare here is already stretched thin but hey things are REAL GOOD HERE!

  24. #6549
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    None of the data shows that we're in a good position. We're not TESTING people and you're like oh the numbers are low this is great.

    None of this is good. None of it.
    Eyup.

    We appear to STILL be short on tests, which means that for a lot of places that aren't doing a LOT of tests are likely really underreported. A lot of the modeling has, as a baked in assumption, that current rates of infected are accurate.

    Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.
    http://www.healthdata.org/research-a...ays-and-deaths

    (edit)

    This study goes by number of deaths, which is presumably more accurate.
    This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.

  25. #6550
    NostraSpurMus phxspurfan's Avatar
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    NYC is saying they're getting more medical 911 calls than they did on 9/11
    9/11 was a walk in park compared to this. It was like 3 or 4 buildings in the city. This is the whole damn tri state area

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