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  1. #6701
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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  2. #6702
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    “There will not be a wonder drug for this.” - Dear Dr. Facci

  3. #6703
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    The Imperial folks revised their total again.

    Britain is on course for an estimated 5,700 deaths from coronavirus, far lower than originally predicted, experts believe.
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...rate-3gn7hfjzk

    Paywall, but you can see the brief intro.

  4. #6704
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    The Imperial folks revised their total again.



    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/c...rate-3gn7hfjzk

    Paywall, but you can see the brief intro.
    The imperial folks never once revised their forecast. The author came out and said as much on twitter. It was linked in this thread.

  5. #6705
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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  6. #6706
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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  7. #6707
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    The imperial folks never once revised their forecast. The author came out and said as much on twitter. It was linked in this thread.
    I saw it yesterday. Don't you think the primary issue with that model was they were basing their forecasts on the Wuhan data (i.e. 60 million infected/3 million dead at Wuhan's 4 percent CFR)? MANY epidemiologists have flatly stated that the CFR is much, much lower due to mild/asymptomatic cases never being reported. The Iceland study confirmed about half their positives were asymptomatic.

    https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-c...rs-no-symptoms

    Germany is thought to have the best mix of mild to severe positives in their data set. Their CFR is .7. You'll no doubt ream me again, but my main issue here is just how blindly the Imperial study is taken as gospel when it was working off on outdated data set. Not sure how you can disagree with that.

  8. #6708
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    The math for the UK staying under 5700 deaths is pretty ing bad. They're on pace to hit that total in less than two weeks. To avoid that total, they would have to peak right now, then level off and start decreasing ASAP. Seems incredibly unlikely. Given they started the social distancing after most of our country did.

  9. #6709
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Weren't the lupus/malaria drugs 100% effective?

    What happened to those?

  10. #6710
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    I saw it yesterday. Don't you think the primary issue with that model was they were basing their forecasts on the Wuhan data (i.e. 60 million infected/3 million dead at Wuhan's 4 percent CFR)? MANY epidemiologists have flatly stated that the CFR is much, much lower due to mild/asymptomatic cases never being reported. The Iceland study confirmed about half their positives were asymptomatic.

    https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-c...rs-no-symptoms

    Germany is thought to have the best mix of mild to severe positives in their data set. Their CFR is .7. You'll no doubt ream me again, but my main issue here is just how blindly the Imperial study is taken as gospel when it was working off on outdated data set. Not sure how you can disagree with that.
    I have no idea what is right or wrong with their model because I am not an epidemiologist and I have no idea what goes into epidemiological models. I'm going to anticipate that the author himself has a much better understanding of how his model works and I'll refer to him as opposed to anyone else on what his estimates are. As for the validity of the model itself, I've definitely seen criticism of it, along with every other model, online, but I have no idea what is valid as I am not an expert in these models so I have no idea who's right and who's wrong. What I have seen is that the epidemiological community I've been reading hasn't dismissed it out of hand. Even when critical of certain aspects, many have pointed it out it - and other models - have value. This I understand because modeling in my field and in atmospheric science comes with many caveats but the models are still incredibly useful given you know how to interpret them.

    My point is that I'm not going to play armchair epidemiologist when I can listen to epidemiologists instead and just go off of what they say. I have no idea what the CFR is, and the epidemiologists I've been reading have been giving a range from .5% to 3% so I'm going to assume that is a valid range because the experts say so. Trying to nail it down more is, IMO, a fools exercise and provides no real value. YMMV.

  11. #6711
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Pepe Escobar highlights the PRC's spin (hybrid war attack by the USA) with geopolitical broad strokes, like they do at Consortium News.

    Repost =/= Agreement. It's interesting as a contrary narrative and a keyhole view of the PRC's POV.
    Beijing is carefully, incrementally shaping the narrative that, from the beginning of the coronavirus attack, the leadership knew it was under a hybrid war attack.

    The terminology of President Xi Jinping is a major clue. He said, on the record, that this was war. And, as a counter-attack, a “people’s war” had to be launched.

    Moreover, he described the virus as a demon or devil. Xi is a Confucianist. Unlike some other ancient Chinese thinkers, Confucius was loath to discuss supernatural forces and judgment in the afterlife. However, in a Chinese cultural context, devil means “white devils” or “foreign devils”: guailo in Mandarin, gweilo in Cantonese. This was Xi delivering a powerful statement in code.


    China’s President Xi Jinping visits Wuhan community, meets residents and frontline workers, March 10, 2020. (YouTube)

    When Zhao Lijian, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, voiced in an incandescent tweet the possibility that “it might be US Army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan” – the first blast to this effect to come from a top official – Beijing was sending up a trial balloon signaling that the gloves were finally off. Zhao Lijian made a direct connection with the Military Games in Wuhan in October 2019, which included a delegation of 300 U.S. military.

    He directly quoted U.S. CDC Director Robert Redfield who, when asked last week whether some deaths by Coronavirus had been discovered posthumously in the U.S., replied that “some cases have actually been diagnosed this way in the U.S. today.”

    Zhao’s explosive conclusion is that COVID-19 was already in effect in the U.S. before being identified in Wuhan – due to the by now fully do ented inability of the U.S. to test and verify differences compared with the flu.

    Adding all that to the fact that coronavirus genome variations in Iran and Italy were sequenced and it was revealed they do not belong to the variety that infected Wuhan, Chinese media are now openly asking questions and drawing a connection with the shutting down in August last year of the “unsafe” military bioweapon lab at Fort Detrick, the Military Games, and the Wuhan epidemic. Some of these questions had been asked– with no response – inside the U.S. itself.

    Extra questions linger about the opaque Event 201 in New York on October 18, 2019: a rehearsal for a worldwide pandemic caused by a deadly virus – which happened to be coronavirus. This magnificent coincidence happened one month before the outbreak in Wuhan.

    Event 201 was sponsored by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the World Economic Forum (WEF), the CIA, Bloomberg, John Hopkins Foundation and the UN. The World Military Games opened in Wuhan on the exact same day.

    Irrespective of its origin, which is still not conclusively established, as much as Trump tweets about the “Chinese virus,” COVID-19 already poses immensely serious questions about biopolitics (where’s Foucault when we need him?) and bio-terror.

    The working hypothesis of coronavirus as a very powerful but not Armageddon-provoking bio-weapon unveils it as a perfect vehicle for widespread social control — on a global scape
    https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/1...d-war-with-us/

  12. #6712
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    ^ He didn't seem to account for it in the estimates because the initial figure that had everybody freaked out was the 60 million/3 million, which was projected from Wuhan's 81K/3200 (4 percent CFR). He, nor anyone else, has any idea how many mild and asymptomatic cases exist that were never tested. The Germany data (0.7 CFR) and Iceland data (0.2 CFR) are way more accurate in this case. If we split the difference, the CFR could be around .5, so the "if we do nothing scenario" would result in 300K deaths. And yes that is still very troubling, but nowhere near the apocalyptic scenario of 3 million dead.

  13. #6713
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    I have no idea what is right or wrong with their model because I am not an epidemiologist and I have no idea what goes into epidemiological models. I'm going to anticipate that the author himself has a much better understanding of how his model works and I'll refer to him as opposed to anyone else on what his estimates are. As for the validity of the model itself, I've definitely seen criticism of it, along with every other model, online, but I have no idea what is valid as I am not an expert in these models so I have no idea who's right and who's wrong. What I have seen is that the epidemiological community I've been reading hasn't dismissed it out of hand. Even when critical of certain aspects, many have pointed it out it - and other models - have value. This I understand because modeling in my field and in atmospheric science comes with many caveats but the models are still incredibly useful given you know how to interpret them.

    My point is that I'm not going to play armchair epidemiologist when I can listen to epidemiologists instead and just go off of what they say. I have no idea what the CFR is, and the epidemiologists I've been reading have been giving a range from .5% to 3% so I'm going to assume that is a valid range because the experts say so. Trying to nail it down more is, IMO, a fools exercise and provides no real value. YMMV.
    Yes, we're spitting in the wind here until we get more reliable data.

    I know it seems I might be doing that, but I'm simply relating the information I've read from other epidemiologists. I'm just the messenger. And just because we're not experts doesn't mean we can't use logic and critical thinking from the information they're giving us to draw a conclusion. The Iceland study could prove groundbreaking, revealing a CFR around flu levels. But of course, their sample size is rather small. So I'm just trying to piece all this disparate information together and see the different possibilities.

  14. #6714
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    Weren't the lupus/malaria drugs 100% effective?

    What happened to those?
    They've been applied, waiting the results.

  15. #6715
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    I saw it yesterday. Don't you think the primary issue with that model was they were basing their forecasts on the Wuhan data (i.e. 60 million infected/3 million dead at Wuhan's 4 percent CFR)? MANY epidemiologists have flatly stated that the CFR is much, much lower due to mild/asymptomatic cases never being reported. The Iceland study confirmed about half their positives were asymptomatic.

    https://futurism.com/neoscope/half-c...rs-no-symptoms

    Germany is thought to have the best mix of mild to severe positives in their data set. Their CFR is .7. You'll no doubt ream me again, but my main issue here is just how blindly the Imperial study is taken as gospel when it was working off on outdated data set. Not sure how you can disagree with that.
    Any data in mortality rate has to take into account availability or respirators. For this reason I doubt you’ll be able to equate Germany’s mortality to the US, particularly NYC.

  16. #6716
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Weren't the lupus/malaria drugs 100% effective?

    What happened to those?

    Those are still being used. Just thought the Canadian trial sounded interesting.

  17. #6717
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Weren't the lupus/malaria drugs 100% effective?

    What happened to those?
    Will the quest for a magic bullet cause Trump to lift the embargo?

    Cuba has mobilized its medical corps around the world to distribute a new "wonder drug" that officials there say is capable of treating the new coronavirus despite the United States' strict sanctions that continue to pressure the communist-run island.

    The drug, called Interferon Alpha-2B Recombinant (IFNrec), is jointly developed by scientists from Cuba and China, where the coronavirus COVID-19 disease outbreak first emerged late last year. Already active in China since January, the Cuban Medical Brigades began deploying to dozens of nations, providing personnel and products such as its new anti-viral drug to battle the disease that has exceeded 400,000 confirmed cases across the globe. As of Tuesday, over 100,000 people have recovered from the infection and more than 18,000 have died.


    Cuba first used advanced interferon techniques to treat dengue fever in the 1980s and later found success in using it to combat HIV, human papillomavirus, Hepa is B, Hepa is C and other diseases. The use of Interferon Alpha-2B Recombinant "prevents aggravation and complications in patients reaching that stage that ultimately can result in death," Cuban biotech expert Luis Herrera Martinez said, according to a recent Yale University Press Blog feature written by the University of Glasgow's Helen Yaffe. She called the treatment a potential "wonder drug" against the new coronavirus.
    https://www.newsweek.com/cuba-drug-f...ctions-1493872

  18. #6718
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    nah, probably not

  19. #6719
    Believe. Sheriff Hoyt's Avatar
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    They've been applied, waiting the results.
    The deaths in NY are mounting up.

  20. #6720
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    The math for the UK staying under 5700 deaths is pretty ing bad. They're on pace to hit that total in less than two weeks. To avoid that total, they would have to peak right now, then level off and start decreasing ASAP. Seems incredibly unlikely. Given they started the social distancing after most of our country did.
    That's what I was getting at yesterday. Ferguson instantly revised the UK's total death count from 500K to 20K nearly immediately after the lockdown (how does he know the effort is having an effect that soon?). Now it's further revised down to 5700. For the "leading expert" and "world renown" adjectives thrown toward him and his team, he seems to be doing an awful lot of dart throwing.

    I'm not trying to Dinning-Krueger, but from all the expert opinion I've read, Ferguson's extrapolations seem to be the most arbitrary. That's my issue with him still being hailed as the authority here.

  21. #6721
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Yes, we're spitting in the wind here until we get more reliable data.

    I know it seems I might be doing that, but I'm simply relating the information I've read from other epidemiologists. I'm just the messenger. And just because we're not experts doesn't mean we can't use logic and critical thinking from the information they're giving us to draw a conclusion. The Iceland study could prove groundbreaking, revealing a CFR around flu levels. But of course, their sample size is rather small. So I'm just trying to piece all this disparate information together and see the different possibilities.

    Dude, its not about logic and/or critical thinking. Its about not understanding the principles that govern models and or CFR estimates when you don't know what those are or how they work. I just don't know that. If you feel comfortable about doing that, then by all means continue but (and this isn't me trying to be rude or snide) its not like I'm taking anything you say bout CFR as anything close to authoritative. I'm going to keep listening to the experts.

    I feel comfortable talking about exponential growth and what the trends and math show because its actually super close to research I've done int he past. Exponential functions are a large part of chemical reactions. But the models that deal with human behavior, viral spread, and the subsequent human toll? I have no idea where to begin on those because I know jack about them.

    I see this all the time as a scientist. People who don't understand things always try to pick it apart. Happens all the ing time with climate change. I'm not going to do what I hate people doing to me to another scientist in their field. Have at it if you want.

    I'm trying to piece things together too. But I just take experts at their word. And honestly, the vast majority that I see are agreeing with each other. I haven't seen very much if any disagreement even when I see critical communication.

  22. #6722
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Any data in mortality rate has to take into account availability or respirators. For this reason I doubt you’ll be able to equate Germany’s mortality to the US, particularly NYC.
    Sure, many factors can contribute. Age and health of the population, health care response, etc. I think everyone just wants to know the true lethality of this virus as it relates to the demographics and healthcare infrastructure of the US. The current 1.5 is probably lower due to the non-count of mild and asymptomatic cases. So I guess we'll have to hang our hate on that for the time being.

  23. #6723
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    The deaths in NY are mounting up.
    Takes me back to the Vietnam war when every night On the news they’d show the days US casualties and the fictisiouly elevated Viet Cong casualties

  24. #6724
    I want some NASTY monosylab1k's Avatar
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  25. #6725
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Prolly got the narcissism from his dad, tbh

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