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  1. #6726
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    That's what I was getting at yesterday. Ferguson instantly revised the UK's total death count from 500K to 20K nearly immediately after the lockdown (how does he know the effort is having an effect that soon?). Now it's further revised down to 5700. For the "leading expert" and "world renown" adjectives thrown toward him and his team, he seems to be doing an awful lot of dart throwing.

    I'm not trying to Dinning-Krueger, but from all the expert opinion I've read, Ferguson's extrapolations seem to be the most arbitrary. That's my issue with him still being hailed as the authority here.
    He. Never. Revised. The. Estimate.

    He initially said, hey if you don't do 500k might die, but if you do this social distancing stuff you might get the death total down to 20k. Well, the UK did the latter, so of course they're on path for a lower estimate. But that's not a revision. That's the initial forecast! I've seen nothing where he's said about a forecast lower than 20k but I have him reaffirm that initial mark based on his model. Not sure why you are bring up that ~6k mark.

    And I for one, have never hailed any one single expert as the authority. Or a single model. That's foolish. Take the aggregate. Use the models appropriately for what they do best (which frankly, I have no idea with these things as its not my field).

    All that being said, I'd be willing to bet money on an over for that 6k mark in the UK.

  2. #6727
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Dude, its not about logic and/or critical thinking. Its about not understanding the principles that govern models and or CFR estimates when you don't know what those are or how they work. I just don't know that. If you feel comfortable about doing that, then by all means continue but (and this isn't me trying to be rude or snide) its not like I'm taking anything you say bout CFR as anything close to authoritative. I'm going to keep listening to the experts.

    I feel comfortable talking about exponential growth and what the trends and math show because its actually super close to research I've done int he past. Exponential functions are a large part of chemical reactions. But the models that deal with human behavior, viral spread, and the subsequent human toll? I have no idea where to begin on those because I know jack about them.

    I see this all the time as a scientist. People who don't understand things always try to pick it apart. Happens all the ing time with climate change. I'm not going to do what I hate people doing to me to another scientist in their field. Have at it if you want.

    I'm trying to piece things together too. But I just take experts at their word. And honestly, the vast majority that I see are agreeing with each other. I haven't seen very much if any disagreement even when I see critical communication.
    I feel you. I don't like this trend of distrusting experts that has been happening in US culture over the past decade. But I'll have to reiterate that I'm just echoing experts and doing a bit of theory. This article basically sums my point-of-view of the matter:

    "Case fatality rates have been very confusing," says Dr. Steven Lawrence, an infectious disease expert and associate professor of medicine at Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis. "The numbers may look different even if the actual situation is the same."

    So it's likely that the seemingly stark difference between Germany and Italy is misleading and will diminish as scientists get more data, Lawrence says.

    But a much more likely scenario, he says, is that early in an outbreak, testing is limited to people who are so sick they wind up in the hospital. That means the only infections that get counted are in the people most likely to die. So the denominator is missing a huge number of infected people who survive, and that makes the virus appear much more deadly than it really is.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...n-be-deceiving

  3. #6728
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    He. Never. Revised. The. Estimate.

    He initially said, hey if you don't do 500k might die, but if you do this social distancing stuff you might get the death total down to 20k. Well, the UK did the latter, so of course they're on path for a lower estimate. But that's not a revision. That's the initial forecast! I've seen nothing where he's said about a forecast lower than 20k but I have him reaffirm that initial mark based on his model. Not sure why you are bring up that ~6k mark.

    And I for one, have never hailed any one single expert as the authority. Or a single model. That's foolish. Take the aggregate. Use the models appropriately for what they do best (which frankly, I have no idea with these things as its not my field).

    All that being said, I'd be willing to bet money on an over for that 6k mark in the UK.
    it's kind of weird that MP seems to think that revising estimates based on changing evidence is bad science or discredits the researcher. I would guess nearly the opposite is true. The scientist who sticks with his initial opinion despite emerging evidence that disagrees, may not really be one.

  4. #6729
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    He. Never. Revised. The. Estimate.

    He initially said, hey if you don't do 500k might die, but if you do this social distancing stuff you might get the death total down to 20k. Well, the UK did the latter, so of course they're on path for a lower estimate. But that's not a revision. That's the initial forecast! I've seen nothing where he's said about a forecast lower than 20k but I have him reaffirm that initial mark based on his model. Not sure why you are bring up that ~6k mark.

    And I for one, have never hailed any one single expert as the authority. Or a single model. That's foolish. Take the aggregate. Use the models appropriately for what they do best (which frankly, I have no idea with these things as its not my field).

    All that being said, I'd be willing to bet money on an over for that 6k mark in the UK.
    I get it was in his initial forecast. I probably worded it wrong and don't mean he revised the model. My issue here is that he quickly went on record as to state the UK on the path toward 20K when the lockdown and social distancing just happened. How can he even know if those procedures are having an effect? Wouldn't "we'll have to wait and see in a week if the lockdown is bending the curve. We just don't know right now" be the more scientific response? Especially because these measures really on the population complying. The quick turnaround just seemed arbitrary to me. And I will always have an issue with the 500k number because that was extrapolated from the Wuhan situation.

  5. #6730
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    it's kind of weird that MP seems to think that revising estimates based on changing evidence is bad science or discredits the researcher. I would guess nearly the opposite is true. The scientist who sticks with his initial opinion despite emerging evidence that disagrees, may not really be one.
    Not what I'm saying at all. He revised the estimate ONE DAY after the UK locked down. Do you think he has enough data from the effects of that lockdown to make a reliable estimate? And the UK really is just in a soft lockdown, meaning those efforts will have to rely on the population complying to social distance and stay home.

  6. #6731
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Not what I'm saying at all. He revised the estimate ONE DAY after the UK locked down. Do you think he has enough data from the effects of that lockdown to make a reliable estimate?
    It's as if he's estimating what will happen before it happens. Projecting, if you will.

  7. #6732
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    I get it was in his initial forecast. I probably worded it wrong and don't mean he revised the model. My issue here is that he quickly went on record as to state the UK on the path toward 20K when the lockdown and social distancing just happened. How can he even know if those procedures are having an effect? Wouldn't "we'll have to wait and see in a week if the lockdown is bending the curve. We just don't know right now" be the more scientific response? Especially because these measures really on the population complying. The quick turnaround just seemed arbitrary to me. And I will always have an issue with the 500k number because that was extrapolated from the Wuhan situation.
    Because those were the initial assumptions in the model. That doesn't mean they're right, but in order to model anything you have to make assumptions (or have an understanding of what the consequences of an action/observation/choice are). This is my point entirely though. I have no idea if his assumptions are correct or wrong. I have no idea if the he's given this degree of social distancing the proper weight in the model. I am not qualified to question him on that. He might be wrong! I have no way of knowing.

    It is arbitrary, but that decision is based on his expertise in the matter. These aren't physical models in the sense that they model fluid dynamics like an atmospheric model. They're behavioral models with a math component to model the viral spread. They're definitely arbitrary, but the decisions and assumptions have logical reasons backed by knowledge in the community that the experts have a grasp on but you and I have no real understanding of. Just because the decision is arbitrary doesn't mean its wrong (or right). Take it with a grain of salt.

    This is why you won't see me once make a single numerical forecast on here in any specific sense. I've read ranges of possible outcomes, and I know that the current rates mean that we're going to see our medical systems overwhelmed because we have such little margin for error there, but I've never said we're going to have 1 million dead, or 500k dead or whatever because I have absolutely no idea. The experts have put out huge forecasts with big error bars, so that tells me they don't know very much on that front either. But they know enough to know that its bad. That's pretty much the bottom line for me.

  8. #6733
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    ah

    CDC will ask people to don masks about the same time Trump urges Americans to go back to work and cease social distancing.

    Pandemic prevention theater, like taking off your shoes and 3.5oz bottles of liquids at airport security checkpoints. Does little to nothing to enhance personal or public safety.

    Seems not.


  9. #6734
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Because those were the initial assumptions in the model. That doesn't mean they're right, but in order to model anything you have to make assumptions (or have an understanding of what the consequences of an action/observation/choice are). This is my point entirely though. I have no idea if his assumptions are correct or wrong. I have no idea if the he's given this degree of social distancing the proper weight in the model. I am not qualified to question him on that. He might be wrong! I have no way of knowing.

    It is arbitrary, but that decision is based on his expertise in the matter. These aren't physical models in the sense that they model fluid dynamics like an atmospheric model. They're behavioral models with a math component to model the viral spread. They're definitely arbitrary, but the decisions and assumptions have logical reasons backed by knowledge in the community that the experts have a grasp on but you and I have no real understanding of. Just because the decision is arbitrary doesn't mean its wrong (or right). Take it with a grain of salt.

    This is why you won't see me once make a single numerical forecast on here in any specific sense. I've read ranges of possible outcomes, and I know that the current rates mean that we're going to see our medical systems overwhelmed because we have such little margin for error there, but I've never said we're going to have 1 million dead, or 500k dead or whatever because I have absolutely no idea. The experts have put out huge forecasts with big error bars, so that tells me they don't know very much on that front either. But they know enough to know that its bad. That's pretty much the bottom line for me.
    Great post, and no disagreement. I'm basically just relaying expert opinion that might operate on the lower bound of those assumptions because I think the upper bound projections of the Imperial Study, which the media have been hammering home, are scaring people. And I think it's prudent to balance that with more "optimistic" theories and projections.

  10. #6735
    faggy opinion + certainty Mark Celibate's Avatar
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    Yesterday Girl made me:::

    A cornbread.
    Brownies.
    Cooked chocolate pudding.
    Peanut butter cookies.
    Grn bean casserole.
    Ham hocks & beans slow cooked for 12 hours.
    10lbs of mashed potatoes, real potatoes boiled, then mashed.

    Today she's making deviled eggs & a pork loin roast.
    How have you and the missus held up during this?

    tbh I have a feeling we're going to see both a baby boom in 9 months and a sh!t ton of divorces when this is all said and done

  11. #6736
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Boston is bad. Hospitals running out of PPE.
    Pediatric intensive care in one trying to sterilize equipment that should be easily replaced.
    We are seeing some really bad spots, and some that have been left mercifully stable.

    We need a national distribution center after this mess. The coordination is horrible state to state, city to city. And federally we got contradictions and excuses.

  12. #6737
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    NYC up to a corona death every ten minutes.

  13. #6738
    Believe. Fat Brandon Bass's Avatar
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    Wonder who will ultimately profit the most from this, China or Trump. What a ed up world we live in.
    The same individuals who always profit from disaster



  14. #6739
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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  15. #6740
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    Boston is bad. Hospitals running out of PPE.
    Pediatric intensive care in one trying to sterilize equipment that should be easily replaced.
    We are seeing some really bad spots, and some that have been left mercifully stable.

    We need a national distribution center after this mess. The coordination is horrible state to state, city to city. And federally we got contradictions and excuses.

    Testing is virtually non existent, and the usa is blinded and literally bleeding out now

  16. #6741
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    Boston is bad. Hospitals running out of PPE.
    Pediatric intensive care in one trying to sterilize equipment that should be easily replaced.
    We are seeing some really bad spots, and some that have been left mercifully stable.

    We need a national distribution center after this mess. The coordination is horrible state to state, city to city. And federally we got contradictions and excuses.

    Trump about to put ny,conneticut, and parts of nj into quarantine

  17. #6742
    faggy opinion + certainty Mark Celibate's Avatar
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    Trump about to put ny,conneticut, and parts of nj into quarantine
    And he's an idiot for announcing that he's "considering" it on Twitter. Gives people plenty of time to get the f*ck out of NYC and spread it elsewhere

  18. #6743
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    And he's an idiot for announcing that he's "considering" it on Twitter. Gives people plenty of time to get the f*ck out of NYC and spread it elsewhere
    More then likely

  19. #6744
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    The same individuals who always profit from disaster


    JOO FLOO

  20. #6745
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    Boston is bad. Hospitals running out of PPE.
    Pediatric intensive care in one trying to sterilize equipment that should be easily replaced.
    We are seeing some really bad spots, and some that have been left mercifully stable.

    We need a national distribution center after this mess. The coordination is horrible state to state, city to city. And federally we got contradictions and excuses.
    We have FEMA and the CDC. There was playbook to utilize the resources we have. But if the president won't use and keep those resources ready, then nothing we build or set up will do the job.

    You can have the fastest car in the world but if you decide to drive it into a light pole you're not going to get anywhere. State and local govs doing what they can, but this is why we have a federal government. This exact type of situation.

  21. #6746
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    This data is so ing hard to use because you have to chip away at it to find actual useful information.

  22. #6747
    e^(i*pi) + 1 = 0 MannyIsGod's Avatar
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    And he's an idiot for announcing that he's "considering" it on Twitter. Gives people plenty of time to get the f*ck out of NYC and spread it elsewhere
    So many people have already left. There are definitely poor people in Manhattan, but there's also a ton of people who have a ton of money and have second homes. But the point is moot. This is EVERYWHERE.

  23. #6748
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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  24. #6749
    notthewordsofonewhokneels Thread's Avatar
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    How have you and the missus held up during this?

    tbh I have a feeling we're going to see both a baby boom in 9 months and a sh!t ton of divorces when this is all said and done
    Fine. Gettin' along fabulous.

    She received a cancer diagnosis 2 years ago that laid us low. I had no idea when she came around the corner and asked me to mute the television what was in store. She'd hid it for two weeks. She's since been undergoing treatment & has undergone two full body scans that are completely clean. She held me up to be honest at the start.

  25. #6750
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Fine. Gettin' along fabulous.

    She received a cancer diagnosis 2 years ago that laid us low. I had no idea when she came around the corner and asked me to mute the television what was in store. She'd hid for two weeks. She's since been undergoing treatment & has undergone two full body scans that are completely clean. She held me up to be honest at the start.
    Grim business Dale, really sorry to hear it but really glad to hear she's beating it. Hang in there.

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