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How is that racist, Qhris?
You have zero clue whether the imperial model is right or wrong my dude. You disagreeing with it is like me telling aerospace engineers that their design sucks or telling Chip England that his method of teaching how to shoot sucks. You disagree with the top line estimates in that model because you don't want to believe them. That's not disagreement of substance.
We'll never know if those estimates of that model were right because we actually did something and those were estimates for not doing anything, but that model was in large part what got people motivated to actually do . Why? Because the people who are experts agree with it.
How is that racist, Qhris?
God bless the people who hang on Trump's every word. They'll gonna need it.
That's what many "experts" are doing. Like here:
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...29235610058753
It doesn't feel that way but going forward we should start seeing a leveling off period. Death has increased by nearly 300 from yesterday.
These are from old cases and people who have been on ventilators for at least a week though.
sundays tend to have underreporting. last sunday they said 0 deaths and ducks posted about it all day monday. there were a little over 500 reported on saturday, its a safe bet sunday was also in the 500's, considering we are seeing that today as well
on top of it, thats just for confirmed cases. we are still way behind on testing so the actual figures (and actual growth) are still fuzzy
100s, 1000s? of New Yorkers turned out in a crowd to watch the USNS Comfort dock.
I wonder if Trash told the Navy not to admit Puerto Ricans, just throw paper towels at them?
When USNS hospital ship visited PR in '17, allowed only 6 PRs / day onto the ship
He is NOT doing that.
You're taking one tweet with one day of data on a graph. But he's looking at overall trends with multiple days of data to make his conclusions. He's also referencing others in his field who are doing the same. Look at his time line.
This is why I keep telling you that you can't pull one piece of info out of context!
There's a longer lag time for deaths and icu cases so those will peak after the initial infections do. I'm not even sure we're at a peak for the infections, but the rate is slowing over a few days. Before you can walk you have to crawl and this is crawling.
Um, we're all Puerto Ricans right now.
Yeah, and it's been shown that some aerospace engineers have tier designs than others.
There's not a consensus expert opinion that model. If you want to argue from the "better safe than sorry" position, I would agree that marshalling out the scary numbers to get people to act was a good thing, but I'll never buy the 60/3 million dead scenario because that assumes a 4 percent mortality rate (from the Wuhan data). I find that figure highly unlikely because, even according to Ferguson and many experts themselves, the true number of mild/asymptomatic cases to severe cases is probably underestimated by quite a bit. We can crosscheck this idea with the Iceland study and an Italy study on top of that.
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/03/21...cold-symptoms/No one else decided to test every single member of the lockdown community. The results immediately showed that 3 percent of all those tested were positive. “We did not realize at the time this was a huge number but we immediately were able to see that the majority of those who were positive did not have any symptoms”, said Cristani.
http://www.rfi.fr/en/europe/20200316...virus-outbreak
I will flat out state I think the true CFR is below 1 percent (even if we let the virus run rampant), making the Imperial model implausible.
Called it.
lol, but no one cares what you flat out state because you're not an epidemiologist!
The guy you just referenced above on the subject, however:
See what I mean about you just cherry picking?
Ford to build 50,000 ventilators in 100 days
plans to continue producing 30,000 per month after that
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/30/business/ford-ge-healthcare-ventilators/index.html
yeah, that's quite the leap...
then again, if you can believe in ghosts, I guess there's no stretch that's too far.
Let them have paper towels.
Ish. I am right on the cusp where the mortality rate becomes non-trivial. (50)
I think you're full of , true.
Looks like motivated reasoning to me. Cherry picking, shameless appeals to authority, pseudologic, hasty generalization, threadbare speculation and misrepresenting of source material (like Manny just pointed out).
You've got most of the classic symptoms.
Last edited by Winehole23; 03-30-2020 at 06:51 PM.
Fair enough. I posted this figure a week ago:
Texas is at 35K total tests with 2800 confirmed. They seem to be on that prorated trajectory I estimated. This is over a week long trend. So still no reason to have a positive outlook for Texas (relative to what is happening in hard hit areas)? Your first issue with Texas looking comparatively good was that they weren't performing a useful number of daily tests. But they just performed 10K in a day, and the positive rate was encouraging. I mean the experts are allowed to estimate over 4 day trends, and this is a 7 day trend, so...NY: Current Covid-19 cases: 12,324, Tests performed: 45,000
Texas: 31,296, Covid-19: 559, Tests performed: 6500. Prorated case number if Texas tested 45000: 3879
Last edited by midnightpulp; 03-30-2020 at 07:09 PM.
This. We're still due for a big jump once we start testing everybody, versus just the extremely ill.
my bro in law came down with a fever and was denied a test (in Los Angeles) because he was told his symptoms werent problematic enough
The problem is his dip supporters hear 38 million, but not the correction. Fox News sure as won’t say anything about it. So they just think he’s right about it and that he owned that lib reporter.
"I know South Korea better than anybody," Trump said when responding to the question from PBS NewsHour's Yamiche Alcindor. "It's a very tight — do you know how many people are in Seoul? Do you know how big the city of Seoul is? 38 million people. That's bigger than anything we have."
black lady is completely under his skin
Not bent out of shape. I think you're a doomsayer because you're quick on the draw to discount attempts to see light at the tunnel, even if they come at the cost of being truthful. That's all.
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