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  1. #7476
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    saying we're going to see a drastic drop in NY but when NY hits it's apex NOla will be on the rise, and who knows how many of them find their way into texas when hits the fan over there

  2. #7477
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    Death rate of COVID-19

    • 80+ years old 14.8%
    • 70-79 years old 8.0%
    • 60-69 years old 3.6%
    • 50-59 years old 1.3%
    • 40-49 years old 0.4%
    • 30-39 years old 0.2%
    • 20-29 years old 0.2%
    • 10-19 years old 0.2%
    • 0-9 years old no fatalities
    Link?

    An infant *has* died.

    https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coro...in-us/2246475/

  3. #7478
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Bexar county setting up 250 bed overflow at Freeman expo hall.

  4. #7479
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    I'm stocking up on Blue Bell before they confiscate their reefer trucks for morgues.

  5. #7480
    Atheist Ninja RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Math time.

    60% of the US population of 300,000,000 is 180,000,000.

    180,000,000 *.0066 = 1,188,000

    UK population:
    70,488,000 * .68.0066 = 272,000

    Assuming, of course, zero extra casualties from an overwhelmed health care system. This is what appears to have happened in Italy.
    Extending the math:

    .0066 death rate out of everybody infected including asymtomatic.

    3000 dead, divided by .0066=484,848 infections.

    it takes roughly seven to fourteen days to kill, so this is how many infections are implied ten days ago.

    Doubles every 2.5 days, so multiply this by eight to get currently infected people:

    7,757,568

    We have tested and detected 168,000, or about 2% of current cases.

    Seems like we need to be testing about ten to fifty times more than we are.

    Edit:

    Extending math further, it gives us an estimate of death toll in about ten days, which is the same factor of eight calculation.

    24,000 will die in the next ten days, with quite a few of them being in New York City, given the current case pattern.

  6. #7481
    Atheist Ninja RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I'm stocking up on Blue Bell before they confiscate their reefer trucks for morgues.
    Eyup. Get in your ice skating too.

  7. #7482
    OH YOU LIKE IT!!! slick'81's Avatar
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    Extending the math:

    .0066 death rate out of everybody infected including asymtomatic.

    3000 dead, divided by .0066=484,848 infections.

    it takes roughly seven to fourteen days to kill, so this is how many infections are implied ten days ago.

    Doubles every 2.5 days, so multiply this by eight to get currently infected people:

    7,757,568

    We have tested and detected 168,000, or about 2% of current cases.

    Seems like we need to be testing about ten to fifty times more than we are.

    Edit:

    Extending math further, it gives us an estimate of death toll in about ten days, which is the same factor of eight calculation.

    24,000 will die in the next ten days, with quite a few of them being in New York City, given the current case pattern.

    How many will live rg?

  8. #7483
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    yup a baby in usa

    multiple childred have died

    a 12 yeqr old just died in belgium today

    thise stats are old as

  9. #7484
    Veteran
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    donating or selling?

    Trump Is Shipping $100 Million In Medical Equipment Out Of The Country


    shipping $100 million of “surgical and medical and hospital things” out of the country.

    “We’re also sending things that we don’t need to other parts,”

    Trump said during his daily coronavirus informercial-slash-rally.

    “We’re going to be sending approximately $100 million worth of things, of surgical and medical and hospital things to Italy.”

    https://www.politicususa.com/2020/03...e-country.html

    Is there a public itemized list or is that a secret?


  10. #7485
    Veteran
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    because IL is blue? nah, he would never do that.

    Illinois Asked Trump For More N95 Masks. He Sent Surgical Masks Instead.

    Gov. J.B. Pritzker ripped the White House for its lackluster response as states like his combat the growing spread of coronavirus.

    the state has purchased more than 5 million N95 masks and more than 5 million surgical masks, which will be arriving by the end of the week.

    Pritzker said he had

    asked the federal government to help Illinois

    by providing personal protective equipment (PPE) like N95 masks,

    but that the White House instead sent 300,000 surgical masks.


    “I can say with certainty that what they sent were not the N95 masks that were promised,

    but were surgical masks, which were not what we asked for,”


    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/illin...b62dd9f5d44ef7

  11. #7486
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    yup a baby in usa

    multiple childred have died

    a 12 yeqr old just died in belgium today

    thise stats are old as
    I was right looks like those #s are at least a month old and all from china: worldmeters

  12. #7487
    Atheist Ninja RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Death rate of COVID-19

    • 80+ years old 14.8%
    • 70-79 years old 8.0%
    • 60-69 years old 3.6%
    • 50-59 years old 1.3%
    • 40-49 years old 0.4%
    • 30-39 years old 0.2%
    • 20-29 years old 0.2%
    • 10-19 years old 0.2%
    • 0-9 years old no fatalities
    Florida median age 42.2 years.

    Half of Florida's population is older than that...

    22,000,000 people.

    Infect a total of 60% over the course of a year.

    13,200,000

    Assuming infection does not favor any demographic, i.e. infection hits all demographics in the same proportion as in the wider population:

    https://worldpopulationreview.com/st...ulation/#byAge

    80+ =523,000 people*0.6*.148= 46,442
    70-79=1059600 *0.6*.08=84,768
    60-69=1525800*0.6*.036=54,928
    50-59=1692000*0.6*.013=21,996

    Figure remainder of population
    17400000*.6*.02=209,000

    Over the course of a year. 208,135 fatalities in the next 12 months for remainder of the population.
    209,000+208135=417,135

    per this data table.

    predicted by lancet study:
    22,000,000*.6*.0066 = 87,000

    Assuming lancet study is accurate, this data table is not.

  13. #7488
    Atheist Ninja RandomGuy's Avatar
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    How many will live rg?
    99.34% of infected. 7,706,368

    Number of people those 7,757,568 will infect, assuming they bring it down from 2.3 now to 1.4,=10,860,595

    The two week period after those people get infected will see 71,000 die.

    Assuming that is the peak, as some are estimating, you have roughly 160M more infections (assuming 60% of all americans get it in the next 12 months) to go before it runs its course, and it claims its final toll of 1.1M.

    FWTW.

  14. #7489
    Grab 'em by the pussy Splits's Avatar
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  15. #7490
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    The CDC director finally talks

    Tidbits:

    Symptomatic People likely shedding lots of virus 2-3 days before symptoms show.
    Asymptomatic peeps that remain so are shedding virus.

    I was personally very interested in this type of incoming evidence. This part of the biology of the infectious cycle of the virus has been largely missing and understandably so.

    This is very unwanted preliminary news.
    Still hoping the weather and distancing/ isolation measures might spare some of the large areas that have not been ravaged yet. Also hoping a summer free of giant outbreaks in these areas allows for ramped up testing. Maybe we can avoid a fall and winter occurrence as bad as States who will be ravaged in the coming weeks (we will have an even better picture for NOrtheast and Northwest as to possible over all numbers)

    Also If some states happen to avoid large outbreaks this might mean they are due. Vaccine is too late. Testing again is essential.

    A few scattered takes for this morning since I had some time. I’ve just been following articles from others so thanks for putting stuff up.

  16. #7491
    Veteran
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    The CDC director finally talks

    Tidbits:

    Symptomatic People likely shedding lots of virus 2-3 days before symptoms show.
    Asymptomatic peeps that remain so are shedding virus.

    I was personally very interested in this type of incoming evidence. This part of the biology of the infectious cycle of the virus has been largely missing and understandably so.

    This is very unwanted preliminary news.
    Still hoping the weather and distancing/ isolation measures might spare some of the large areas that have not been ravaged yet. Also hoping a summer free of giant outbreaks in these areas allows for ramped up testing. Maybe we can avoid a fall and winter occurrence as bad as States who will be ravaged in the coming weeks (we will have an even better picture for NOrtheast and Northwest as to possible over all numbers)

    Also If some states happen to avoid large outbreaks this might mean they are due. Vaccine is too late. Testing again is essential.

    A few scattered takes for this morning since I had some time. I’ve just been following articles from others so thanks for putting stuff up.
    Me too. The other 4 human coronaviruses drop like a rock in May so yes hopefully this one does too.

    Other hope is the therapies under study also prove effective. Namely the Plaquenil + Zithro combination.

    Dr. Fauci discussed what a difference seasonality would make just yesterday. In his words "more than just lessons learned" because they would have so much more in place (testing, therapies, etc.) next season.

  17. #7492
    Believe. Fat Brandon Bass's Avatar
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    Rise and shine spurstalk!

    Remember Trumpman bad !!!

    Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...

  18. #7493

  19. #7494
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    And now that we know the sneaky nature of shedding the virus the above becomes super important. This is the next step in the sequence of understanding. (including more testing on how long it survives on different surfaces. Hands included.)

  20. #7495
    Veteran hater's Avatar
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    Doctor who met with Putin tests positive

    called it tbqh

    Virus getting closer and closer to Vlad

  21. #7496
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    Rise and shine spurstalk!

    Remember Trumpman bad !!!

    Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...
    As long as he shuts up and let’s the experts advise im good.
    Imagine if we could keep him off Twitter and not asking/praising the insight/work of random baseball players.
    If you could curb his need for attention the goal is possible. One day, can he shut up for one day.

  22. #7497
    Veteran
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    How long coronavirus survives on surfaces - and what it means for handling money, food and more

    https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...es-on-surfaces

    ============

    Aerosol and Surface Stability of SARS-CoV-2 as Compared with SARS-CoV-1

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

    CDC is supposedly considering guidance of masks for everybody, just not victims and health care.



  23. #7498
    Mahinmi in ? picnroll's Avatar
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    Rise and shine spurstalk!

    Remember Trumpman bad !!!

    Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...
    I’ll give it a try.

    Who’s in for a go- fund-me campaign. Proceeds to go to the first reporter at a Trump infomercial/campaign presser to ask Trash why he keeps lying to the American people and why does he keep doing these campaign speeches in the guise of press conferences?

  24. #7499
    Atheist Ninja RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Rise and shine spurstalk!

    Remember Trumpman bad !!!

    Who's ready for 16 more straight hours of posting about Trump? I see boutons has already beaten you guys to the punch. I challenge you guys this morning to be better men than you were yesterday....increase your obsession. Beat your personal record. Be men. Who is going to step up when the world needs them the most? Who will be the one to make the most angry Trump posts today? Step up men, seize the day...
    No-take McGurk continues not to have a take.

  25. #7500
    Veteran vy65's Avatar
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    Well, there's a point there that the modeling software might be outdated at this point, and something is being done about it. Again, I don't see anything there to point out that there was a willful intent to mislead or anything like that.
    Kind of, but not really. The model itself - meaning the calculations run to reach a particular projection - may very well be fine. Validity of the assumptions that are put into the model, that is the problem. Correct inputs/variables/assumptions/etc... will lead to more accurate models while incorrect inputs/variables/assumptions won't. Garbage in, Garbage out: the model will only be as good as the stuff you put into it in the first place.

    Mid's point is that the imperial model has a serious flaw in its CFR input. 0.66% vs. 3.4% is well over a 5x difference. That's a huge difference which can make a model utterly meaningless. If the CFR is closer to the .66 figure rather than the 3.4, then the Imperial Model had some garbage put in and its projections are themselves garbage. Again, inaccurate assumptions will give you inaccurate results.

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