Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[SnakeBoy]

A recent paper by Fauci himself theorized that the CFR is probably well below 1 percent:

I don't think there is any doubt that the CFR is lower than 1 percent.

I also don't think there is any doubt that without any attempt to control spread that percentage (whatever it may be) will overwhelm the system and increase the CFR as well as lead to higher fatalities with other illnesses/injuries.

I'm not clear on what you and Manny are arguing about though.

[Thread]

Well I’m glad Fauci made you feel better. Would hate for Trump to hurt your feelings... I’m not saying you should commit suicide but looking at the next opportunity to end your existence may not be a bad idea and could do the rest of the world a solid. In other words, kill yourself

& indeed Fauci did condescend to the worry warts, the Americans who craved (an out). "Don't leave me like this, I want to enjoy my layoff this evening in front of the television, everybody is in the house, the kids, the wife...please, sir." & Fauci buckled just a bit toward the last for (us). It's human. Just have to hope he's buckling to the possum & not the bitter truth.

[baseline bum]

Almost a living nightmare.

It ain't almost. It'll be in your neck of the woods and mine soon enough. Though I have accepted that we're going to have on the order of ~500,000 dead Americans for a while now, ever since it really started going in Europe early this month.

[MannyIsGod]

Because you're regurgitating the opinion of a select group of experts. Have you bothered to read the University of Maryland study (funny how you were quick to call the warm weather "bunk" based on the isolated situation in LA, when warm weather climates haven't exploded like cold weather climates to anywhere near the same degree. Look at Australia. Lord Fauci himself admitted this is probably seasonal). Have you bothered to look at the University of Washington projections? Have you read the opinions of the other leading experts, like John Ioannidis, Paul Auwaerter, the Oxford Study, and the many interviewed experts who have gone on record in saying that CFR is very likely under 1 percent (further confirmed by the Lancet study, where the infallible Neil Ferguson was a sponsor)? I know you haven't read much into this, because you even get the data from the Iceland study wrong (538 didn't do their research, apparently).



And in terms of sample size, that represents a greater proportion of the population tested than anywhere in the world.

Your bone to pick is obvious, evidenced by you calling it "my theory." No, that is the theory of "experts" in Iceland. I'm just passing the information on. But it seems you're blinded to any information that just might run contrary to the 2.4 million dead scenarios. And you keep telling me about "all these experts" who are in lockstep with the Imperial model (to clarify, THAT is what I'm challenging. Do I think this virus is going to kick our collective asses and overrun vulnerable areas? Yes. Do I think we need to be highly concerned? Yes. Do I think the worst of the worst cases is plausible? No), so who are they?

A recent paper by Fauci himself theorized that the CFR is probably well below 1 percent:

https://imgur.com/a/AEI0Y17

And this is what I've argued for a week straight. That the Imperial model is "bunk" because it assumes the Wuhan CFR, when that is looking like it's nowhere the case. This is why the "distrust of experts" exists (usually a few experts get lionized above others, in this case, Neil Ferguson and Anthony Fauci). Because there's this condescension that non-experts can't use their in' brains and make a logical deduction from evaluating all sides of the argument.

I've never once told you that you have to buy into the Imperial model and nothing else. Never even insinuated anything near that. I specifically told you the exact opposite of that in several posts.

You can't read my dude. That's not my fault. Thats on you. This is why you can't link the places I told you that, because they don't exist.

As for the rest of what you posted, I don't even care anymore. You first said Louisiana was an outlier but was overstated due to a nursing home.

Your posts on this start here:

https://www.spurstalk.com/forums/sho...1#post10101981

I told you to check back in two weeks. Well, 1 week later, the Governor of LA has said they're about to run out of Ventilators and Hosptial beds by this weekend. Florida just reported its largest day of positive results over 1k.

You're free to believe what you want my man. You're free to cherry pick whatever data you need to in order to feel like this isn't going to be that bad. I get it, it sucks for all of us. But the numbers don't lie.

[Thread]

You're implied it.

"Warm weather theory is bunk."[/B] (by referring to the LA situation as the single example).

"TEXAS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD! ARE YOU IN' KIDDING ME!!!" Maybe they'll hit an inflection point, but from looking at the data, states/regions that are getting throttled usually see an inflection point within 8-12 days of their first death (and yes, we know death toll is unreliable due to the lag). Texas has been consistent day over day.

"A persistent defense the Imperial model." I felt that Ferguson's projection from 500K dead in the UK to 20K dead and then to 5700 dead in the span of like 10 minutes tells me his methodology isn't consistent and/or he isn't sharing how the changing dynamics of the situation (i.e. the lower CFR than initially thought) is altering the upper and lower bound projections. He can say all he wants that "he didn't change the model." But I smell bull . What likely happened is the input parameters changed from which those initial "doomsday" projections were made, like a lower CFR and R0. But he didn't share much with us besides, "My model is right! It's the UK's social distancing and lockdown policies that will lead to the 5700 dead." No, it's probably because he vastly overestimated the CFR and doesn't want to admit it.

Let's face it, Midst, we all smelled a rat there, but, we latched on anyway.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't think there is any doubt that the CFR is lower than 1 percent.

I also don't think there is any doubt that without any attempt to control spread that percentage (whatever it may be) will overwhelm the system and increase the CFR as well as lead to higher fatalities with other illnesses/injuries.

I'm not clear on what you and Manny are arguing about though.

Exactly, MP doesn't seem to understand that those models raise the CFR when considering worst case scenarios due the system being overwhelmed. I thought the 538 article would explain that. I've told him CFR is not static which is why you get one in Italy, one in Wuhan, one in Iceland, one in CA, and one in NYC etc etc. But he keeps locking on to one single rate to describe everything. Its ridiculous.

[Medvedenko]

Well I’m glad Fauci made you feel better. Would hate for Trump to hurt your feelings... I’m not saying you should commit suicide but looking at the next opportunity to end your existence may not be a bad idea and could do the rest of the world a solid. In other words, kill yourself

Trust me, Trump doesn't hurt my feelings, he's out of his depth right now. This isn't some company that is in the red and he's trying to turn around profit #'s. Keep believing though. Plus, they keep banging the gong of "if we did nothing, millions would be dead" BS, so sad really. What country is doing nothing? It's the dumbest I've ever heard. If that was my boss, let alone President I'd quit. On the suicide note....USA is on the end of the rope since Nov 2016....

[Thread]

It ain't almost. It'll be in your neck of the woods and mine soon enough. Though I have accepted that we're going to have on the order of ~500,000 dead Americans for a while now, ever since it really started going in Europe early this month.

Christ, I hope you're wrong, bum.

[MannyIsGod]

You're implied it.

"Warm weather theory is bunk." (by referring to the LA situation as the single example).

"TEXAS ISN'T LOOKING GOOD! ARE YOU IN' KIDDING ME!!!" Maybe they'll hit an inflection point, but from looking at the data, states/regions that are getting throttled usually see an inflection point within 8-12 days of their first death (and yes, we know death toll is unreliable due to the lag). Texas has been consistent day over day.

"A persistent defense the Imperial model." I felt that Ferguson's projection from 500K dead in the UK to 20K dead and then to 5700 dead in the span of like 10 minutes tells me his methodology isn't consistent and/or he isn't sharing how the changing dynamics of the situation (i.e. the lower CFR than initially thought) is altering the upper and lower bound projections. He can say all he wants that "he didn't change the model." But I smell bull . What likely happened is the input parameters changed from which those initial "doomsday" projections were made, like a lower CFR and R0. But he didn't share much with us besides, "My model is right! It's the UK's social distancing and lockdown policies that will lead to the 5700 dead." No, it's probably because he vastly overestimated the CFR and doesn't want to admit it.

So I implied to you that you should consider nothing but the imperial model because i told you that warm weather theory is bunk? Really? THIS is your reach?

Hooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooly man. Do you even have a shoulder?

How do you get me supporting nothing but an imperial model by saying that the warm weather theory was wrong? How are the two even related? Bro, REALLY?


Look, I may be wrong about my thoughts on warm weather. I said as much on a post to Snake Boy that very same day a few posts after I called it bunk. But this , lol, this is hilarious.

[MannyIsGod]

MP, its OK to just say that you're wrong. I did it with warm weather stuff. Its still spreading in warm weather areas currently, but Snake Boy posted some graphics that showed it might die off come May. We'll see.

[baseline bum]

Christ, I hope you're wrong, bum.

Well when I say order of ~500,000, I just mean order of magnitude. So anything from say 150,000 to 1,500,000 could be reasonably said to fit that range. I just got that number from a projection by Michael Osterholm once this started really going in Europe about 3 weeks ago. Very interesting interview if you have never seen, Joe Rogan might be the best interviewer I have ever seen.

[Thread]

Trust me, Trump doesn't hurt my feelings, he's out of his depth right now. This isn't some company that is in the red and he's trying to turn around profit #'s. Keep believing though. Plus, they keep banging the gong of "if we did nothing, millions would be dead" BS, so sad really. What country is doing nothing? It's the dumbest I've ever heard. If that was my boss, let alone President I'd quit. On the suicide note....USA is on the end of the rope since Nov 2016....

But, he's saying if we didn't do anything it'd be millions. He's also saying as well as the doctors are saying:::even if we do mitigation it's going to be 100,000-200,000 dead.

Most of the reporters there could not process that statement from him, or, those doctors. One reason is because the President and doctors didn't go around the lectern beating on the lectern, screaming and yelling and begging God for relief. They stated it, not once, not twice, but, many times while looking eye in a calm voice. Still the reporters couldn't grasp it.

[Medvedenko]

But, he's saying if we didn't do anything it'd be millions. He's also saying as well as the doctors are saying:::even if we do mitigation it's going to be 100,000-200,000 dead.

Most of the reporters there could not process that statement from him, or, those doctors. One reason is because the President and doctors didn't go around the lectern beating on the lectern, screaming and yelling and begging God for relief. They stated it, not once, not twice, but, many times while looking eye in a calm voice. Still the reporters couldn't grasp it.

It's pure "hedging your bets" my friend. Classic business move, from a business man. He's just having his team support it. Anything less than 100k Trump will be sing to the heavens and gloat. It's kind of gross honestly. So morally bankrupt.

[midnightpulp]

I don't think there is any doubt that the CFR is lower than 1 percent.

I also don't think there is any doubt that without any attempt to control spread that percentage (whatever it may be) will overwhelm the system and increase the CFR as well as lead to higher fatalities with other illnesses/injuries.

I'm not clear on what you and Manny are arguing about though.

If I post a theory, opinion from other experts, Manny will usually pipe in that I'm wrong, while willingly ignoring what those experts are saying. He even stated above that "I'm wrong," per my quote about population density, weather, and social behavior being big factors in spread, which is funny because every expert pretty much agrees those are BIG factors, and that idea was quoted from the 538 piece he posted himself.

I think Manny's issue here is that he's taking his frustration with all the people who play armchair climate scientist (his field) and tell him his theories are wrong, inaccurate, etc out on me. He's casting me in that role of "self-appointed climate expert" he probably deals with frequently. I'm not doing anything like that. I am relating information I've learned from other renown experts in the field and then just opinionizing on what those theories might hold for us, i.e. the warm weather theory and population density arguments make a lot of sense, so it's my opinion that regions with those characteristics won't get hit anywhere near as hard as New York, Italy, etc. They might even likely remain under the curve throughout this pandemic, as this projection model shows:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

But I say this, and Manny is quick to chime in with "you're no expert!!!! Italy!"

[baseline bum]

It's pure "hedging your bets" my friend. Classic business move, from a business man. He's just having his team support it. Anything less than 100k Trump will be sing to the heavens and gloat. It's kind of gross honestly. So morally bankrupt.

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

[Medvedenko]

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

Of course! I just don't like "modeling porn" as #'s can change up or down in each moment, especially with demographics.

[MannyIsGod]

If I post a theory, opinion from other experts, Manny will usually pipe in that I'm wrong, while willingly ignoring what those experts are saying. He even stated above that "I'm wrong," per my quote about population density, weather, and social behavior being big factors in spread, which is funny because every expert pretty much agrees those are BIG factors, and that idea was quoted from the 538 piece he posted himself.

I think Manny's issue here is that he's taking his frustration with all the people who play armchair climate scientist (his field) and tell him his theories are wrong, inaccurate, etc out on me. He's casting me in that role of "self-appointed climate expert" he probably deals with frequently. I'm not doing anything like that. I am relating information I've learned from other renown experts in the field and then just opinionizing on what those theories might hold for us, i.e. the warm weather theory and population density arguments make a lot of sense, so it's my opinion that regions with those characteristics won't get hit anywhere near as hard as New York, Italy, etc. They might even likely remain under the curve throughout this pandemic, as this projection model shows:

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

But I say this, and Manny is quick to chime in with "you're no expert!!!! Italy!"

Nah my issue is usually you take things out of context. Like when you say the imperial study was revised when it wasn't. You make improper inferences from the things experts say and then post them here. But honestly, if you think me saying the warm weather theory was bunk means that you should only follow the imperial model then I can see why you misinterpret other things too.

[midnightpulp]

So I implied to you that you should consider nothing but the imperial model because i told you that warm weather theory is bunk? Really? THIS is your reach?

Hooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooly man. Do you even have a shoulder?

How do you get me supporting nothing but an imperial model by saying that the warm weather theory was wrong? How are the two even related? Bro, REALLY?


Look, I may be wrong about my thoughts on warm weather. I said as much on a post to Snake Boy that very same day a few posts after I called it bunk. But this , lol, this is hilarious.

Because the warm weather theory will slow down spread. You seem to be against ANYTHING that suggests spread will slow down. I'm implying from this that you are attached to ANY worst case scenario projections, whether they are from the Imperial study or not. That's where I'm making the "connection." You dismiss anything and everything that doesn't have spread neatly riding the tracks of exponential growth until the worst case scenario is realized.

What was "I wrong about?" Didn't I say CFR is probably below 1 percent? Looking likely. Didn't I say, a week ago, that warm weather/less densely populated areas aren't as vulnerable? How's California, Texas, Florida, Australia, Arizona looking vs. New York, Michigan, New Jersey, etc?

Oh, and this isn't "me" being right. I'm regurgitating the experts that theorized this. I just happened to agree with them over the more pessimistic experts.

[DarrinS]

https://covid19.healthdata.org

[MannyIsGod]

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

Uh, we're going to have 100k dead more than likely by the end of April. So yeah, not hitting that mark by the end of the year would be an amazing miracle.

[MannyIsGod]

Because the warm weather theory will slow down spread. You seem to be against ANYTHING that suggests spread will slow down. I'm implying from this that you are attached to ANY worst case scenario projections, whether they are from the Imperial study or not. That's where I'm making the "connection." You dismiss anything and everything that doesn't have spread neatly riding the tracks of exponential growth until the worst case scenario is realized.

What was "I wrong about?" Didn't I say CFR is probably below 1 percent? Looking likely. Didn't I say, a week ago, that warm weather/less densely populated areas aren't as vulnerable? How's California, Texas, Florida, Australia, Arizona looking vs. New York, Michigan, New Jersey, etc?

Oh, and this isn't "me" being right. I'm regurgitating the experts that theorized this. I just happened to agree with them over the more pessimistic experts.

So now I also told you population density didn't matter? I literally said the opposite.

Florida is looking pretty bad to be honest. California isn't warm weather. Australia I honestly have no idea because I have no idea what they're more functional government is doing to prevent the spread. Haven't kept up with them. Mexico is looking pretty bad though, and they have warm weather too. Spain isn't exactly cold and they're not doing well. And of course, Louisiana.

But anyway, its obvious to me that I've hurt your feelings somewhere along the way. I'm sorry for that, MP. Just don't take my words out of context and we'll be fine.

Also, you want to know what slows the spread down? Social distancing and government mandated actions of the like. Thats why the curve bends. Not because of some warm air.

Here's a hint, if you can't go back and find a place where I said something you think i said, I didn't say. I don't need to imply things, I'm pretty direct in what I mean. If you don't understand, ask me to clarify. But don't ascribe your bull to me, thanks.

[FkLA]

If we have less than 100k dead by Dec 31st we should all be singing to the heavens honestly

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a load considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

[baseline bum]

I know initial estimates were much higher but man 100-240k still seems like a load considering where we're at right now.

What percentage of that will be NY/NJ? Are they expecting a bunch of other "hotspots" to pop up? What's the outlook for TX?

We went from 300 to 3850 in like ten days. It honestly doesn't sound like that high a number.

[hater]

ma niga Bum is onto something

they said 100,000 dead. they did not say when and they did not say that was the end of it

I already called for a wave #2 which might be more brutal than the first

even if that doesnt happen. how are we going to restart normal life if the moment we ho back out the cases jump again

this will be a cat and mouse game until some kind of immunity is achieved in hich could easily be 6 months to abyear from now

so Bums #s are actually conservative

whatever # the US government is fooating it will be at least 10X that

[Spurs Homer]

All 3, + Pence were evasive & just about equally so. The reporters were aghast at the reality of the information they were hearing.

[Even with mitigation] that is the number. It's graveling, sobering, frightening. Difficult to hear, even more difficult to accept. Almost a living nightmare.

ADDENDUM:::We are used to(as American)to hear such cataclysmic news with a built in out that is lit in sunshine. "But, if you do this---that won't happen." That's how we've lived all of our lives.

This wasn't that. It may be. They may be playing possum, but, they ain't giving it away like we're also used to. "Ah, he's just ing around. It'll be okay."

100 to 200 thousand dead americans with trump as president

without trump = 10k deaths TOPS