Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[DMC]

Prestigious scientific panel tells White House coronavirus won't go away with warmer weather

In their letter to the White House, members of a National Academy of Sciences committee said data is mixed on whether coronavirus spreads as easily in warm weather as it does in cold weather, but that it might not matter much given that so few people in the world are immune to coronavirus.

"There is some evidence to suggest that [coronavirus] may transmit less efficiently in environments with higher ambient temperature and humidity; however, given the lack of host immunity globally, this reduction in transmission efficiency may not lead to a significant reduction in disease spread without the concomitant adoption of major public health interventions," according to the letter.

The letter noted, for example, that a study of the outbreak in China showed that even under maximum temperature and humidity conditions, the virus spread "exponentially," with every infected person spreading it to nearly two other people on average.

Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease specialist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, who is not a member of the NAS committee, said, "Although we can hope weather will make some contribution to the reduction in transmission, we can't rely on it alone. We have to continue to employ social distancing and other measures to reduce transmission."

President Trump has said coronavirus will recede with warmer weather.

"A lot of people think that goes away in April with the heat — as the heat comes in. Typically, that will go away in April," he said on February 10 in remarks to the nation's governors.
Trump repeated the claim later that day at a political rally in New Hampshire.

"Looks like in April, you know in theory when it gets a little warmer it miraculously goes away," he said.

He said it a third time that day on an appearance on Fox News.

"You know in April, supposedly, it dies with the hotter weather. And that's a beautiful date to look forward to," he said.

Schaffner, an adviser to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, noted that the NAS report gives "a more sobering assessment" of the situation than Trump did.

"The president walks on the sunny side of the street, and this takes us over to the shady side of the street," Schaffner said. "It makes us realize that springtime is likely not going to be a total solution."
The letter from the NAS scientists notes that some laboratory studies have shown reduced
transmission of the virus under warmer and more humid conditions, but that it's still a concern.
The letter describes how Chad Roy, a researcher at Tulane University, subjected the virus to hot and humid temperatures in the laboratory, and studied it for 16 hours.

Roy reports "surprisingly" that new coronavirus lived longer than flu, monkeypox, tuberculosis or the coronavirus that causes SARS, known as severe acute respiratory syndrome, according to the letter from the NAS's Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats.

The scientists sent the letter to Kelvin Droegemeier at the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy.

The letter points out that in the real world, the virus is still transmitting in countries with warm weather.

"Given that countries currently in 'summer' climates, such as Australia and Iran, are experiencing rapid virus spread, a decrease in cases with increases in humidity and temperature elsewhere should not be assumed," according to the letter.

The letter also notes that while flu typically is seasonal, that's not necessarily the case when there's a new strain of the flu and very few individuals have any immunity.

New strains of flu have broken out in warm and cold weather, and then there's been a second wave about six months later.

Dr. Paul Offit, an infectious disease specialist, noted that while the coronaviruses that cause the common cold are seasonal, this new coronavirus is different because it originated in animals, not humans.

"It's unclear how this virus is going to act," said Offit, a professor of pediatrics at Children's Hospital of Philadelphia

https://apple.news/ATAcFtqbjTb6OW6Yk8wCKgw

So much for another of professor Trumps proclimations.

Stopped reading at "prestigious"

No need to sweeten the well from the first sentence.

[TSA]

1. You still don't understand exponential growth.

2. You don't understand what I said 1 week ago.

3. You don't understand that the rate I was talking about 1 week ago is slower than what is happening in reality.

4. You don't know how to interpret that model.

That's why its so hard to admit I'm wrong. Because you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about.

We have about 2.5k deaths right now. Assuming a slow 4 day doubling time for deaths (I think it'll be faster), in ~3 weeks we hit 150k dead.

60,415

[ChumpDumper]

ing the football on 60,000 bodies. What is wrong with you?

[Thread]

ing the football on 60,000 bodies. What is wrong with you?

Fauci and the woman set it up at 240k.

[ChumpDumper]

Fauci and the woman set it up at 240k.

And? Projections are projections.

[TimDunkem]

Most conservative of estimates says 60000+ will die over the course of 5 months.

* es football*

[TimDunkem]

Fauci and the woman set it up at 240k.

You know the number will probably be somewhere near thr middle right? White House likes to use the lower estimates so they can tell the states everything is A-OK and that they don't need the equipment they're asking for.

[picnroll]

Mailman just came. I got a bulk mail solicitation from "National Cremation Service". Damn, that's cold blooded.

Does that come with a header “President Trumps COVID-19 Guidelines”?

[Thread]

And? Projections are projections.

I'm just marking the spot. We started with those two and we're finishing with 'em.

And that's just the way it's gonna be.

[Thread]

You know the number will probably be somewhere near thr middle right? White House likes to use the lower estimates so they can tell the states everything is A-OK and that they don't need the equipment they're asking for.

& they indeed don't need it. Cuomo is sending his on down the road. California is sending their out, Washington as well. The old man tried to tell them, but, they was beating that political drum and couldn't stop. We're gonna have Vents comin' out of our in' ears by June. Beds too. Javitts has 2000 empty beds. Central Park is tearing down and bringing out the stash of LOST & FOUND Frisbees.

& the kicker, the livin' end? Doctors are now putting away their Vents and trying other methods. Yeah, imagine that.

[TimDunkem]

5 employees at 5 different HEBs across SA have coronavirus. NOW they want to give them gloves and masks.

[Thread]

5 employees at 5 different HEBs across SA have coronavirus. NOW they want to give them gloves and masks.

Nobody wants to give up those goodies, that supermarket, that time-and-a-half, that double time.

Nevertheless, better stock up people! tee, hee.

[SnakeBoy]

In one presser Trump even said he might even take it prophylaxictively. What do you think about him making that statement?

If he and his Doctor decide to do that then that's fine. Many healthcare workers are doing the same.

[boutons_deux]

5 employees at 5 different HEBs across SA have coronavirus. NOW they want to give them gloves and masks.

no masks on employees at Costco/Selma

[picnroll]

If he and his Doctor decide to do that then that's fine. Many healthcare workers are doing the same.

Sure makes a world of sense. So if you actually believe it works there’ll be none available when someone actually gets sick. Perfect Trumpesque logic. How about everybody take chemotherapy just in case they get cancer.

[ChumpDumper]

If possible, looks like folks in Texas should be stocked up and avoid going into shops the next couple weeks.

[TimDunkem]

Cases and deaths in Italy are rising again for the 2nd straight day.

[boutons_deux]

If possible, looks like folks in Texas should be stocked up and avoid going into shops the next couple weeks.

yep, HEB, Walmart, Costco do not appear depleted

However, I cannot find 70% isopropyl alcohol or H2O2 at 2 HEB, Walmart, Walgreens

[hater]

RIP brazil

hopefully military executes Bolsonaro when its all said and done

[TimDunkem]

Deaths down slightly in NJ, but cases are still rising. Same for Louisiana where it's almost doubled from yesterday's count.

[SnakeBoy]

Sure makes a world of sense. So if you actually believe it works there’ll be none available when someone actually gets sick. Perfect Trumpesque logic. How about everybody take chemotherapy just in case they get cancer.

We should manufacture more

Oh wait

[Thread]

Deaths down slightly in NJ, but cases are still rising. Same for Louisiana where it's almost doubled from yesterday's count.

...Mardi Gras.

"Don't do that."

They did it anyway.

"Shouldn't a done that, but, you did and it's over. It'll be alright, just don't do it again."

My ass. Classic case of Coronavirus & it's boundless spread.

[boutons_deux]

Bill O'Reilly to Hannity:

Many coronavirus victims 'were on their last legs anyway'

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...tail=emaildkre

[Nathan89]

^ all have socialized medicine btw

So do all the failed countries in Europe.

[hater]

So do all the failed countries in Europe.

sure but show me ONE non socialized medicine country that seems to be beating corona?