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  1. #17701
    i hunt fenced animals clambake's Avatar
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    Unless Vy thought that we would do absolutely nothing, you're basically saying he took the most liberal estimate and ran with it. How is that any different than what I said? It makes you wrong for two reasons (not you specifically), 1) wrong in numbers 2) wrong for the negative nancy outlook on American response
    Post the pictures of men you wish you were and you can keep the money you owe me, gravy boat

  2. #17702
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Then bring a better model. It's easy to criticize and not provide a better alternative. Microsoft worked with the University of Washington, which uses a similar model, on the visualization tool that ended up being this site:

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

    which IIRC, is the model the US government ended up using. And it's been pretty spot on. We discussed some of the numbers where off for hospitalization at some point, and eventually, as more data came in, it was adjusted. That's just how statistical models work.
    As more data comes in, you have the results, you don't need the model. This reminds me of Hollinger with the point diff calculations and said at the end of the year they always predicted who would be in 1st. Well , by then you know already so sure. What do they do for you in January?

  3. #17703
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Broken record schtick only 30 other posters here wore out and discarded already.

  4. #17704
    i hunt fenced animals clambake's Avatar
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    I think you mean everyone is resigned to the evidence of your fatness, man cow

  5. #17705
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Unless Vy thought that we would do absolutely nothing, you're basically saying he took the most liberal estimate and ran with it. How is that any different than what I said? It makes you wrong for two reasons (not you specifically), 1) wrong in numbers 2) wrong for the negative nancy outlook on American response
    I can't speak for him, but I don't think he thought we would do nothing. What I suspect is that he took the projections when we were actually doing nothing, and they looked pretty bad. Guessing what we were going to do at that point is a bit of futurology.

    As more data comes in, you have the results, you don't need the model. This reminds me of Hollinger with the point diff calculations and said at the end of the year they always predicted who would be in 1st. Well , by then you know already so sure. What do they do for you in January?
    There are projections in there. The last results update seems to have been on May 19th as I write this. Starting from May 20th, it reads 'Projected'. You can also see the margins of error increase as you project further (as it's logical).

  6. #17706
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    This is a conspiracy theory though. Because I can ask you to back up the contention that there's manipulation of data, but you clearly cannot.
    I've already explained to you the manipulation of data.

    1. Daily case reporting lag
    2. Hotspot chasing
    3. Daily fatality reporting lag.
    4. Multiple positives by same person counts as multiple positives
    5. Probable cases
    6. Weekly all cause fatality in line with average all cause fatality.
    -------
    After all of that you still have the fact that both wuhan and Italy had the same data regarding at risk and fatality. At risk was 65plus with preexisting and fatality was 2x flu. Not to mention its a seasonal virus and follows a seasonal curve.... how much more do you need. Not a conspiracy, just poor analysis by you it seems.

  7. #17707
    Done with the NBA
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  8. #17708
    Believe.
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    I've already explained to you the manipulation of data.

    1. Daily case reporting lag
    2. Hotspot chasing
    3. Daily fatality reporting lag.
    4. Multiple positives by same person counts as multiple positives
    5. Probable cases
    6. Weekly all cause fatality in line with average all cause fatality.
    -------
    After all of that you still have the fact that both wuhan and Italy had the same data regarding at risk and fatality. At risk was 65plus with preexisting and fatality was 2x flu. Not to mention its a seasonal virus and follows a seasonal curve.... how much more do you need. Not a conspiracy, just poor analysis by you it seems.

  9. #17709
    wrong about pizzagate TSA's Avatar
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    Nowhere there says the study is bunk. Merely they found some data discrepancies.

    BTW, I'm going to be apologizing to you if the study is retracted, I made that commitment, tbh
    Expression of concern: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis

    Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al—Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis1
    —published in The Lancet on May 22, 2020. Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...290-3/fulltext

    Expression of Concern: Mehra MR et al. Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.

    On May 1, 2020, we published “Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19,”1 a study of the effect of preexisting treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) on Covid-19. This retrospective study used data drawn from an international database that included electronic health records from 169 hospitals on three continents. Recently, substantive concerns have been raised about the quality of the information in that database. We have asked the authors to provide evidence that the data are reliable. In the interim and for the benefit of our readers, we are publishing this Expression of Concern about the reliability of their conclusions.

    Studies of ACE inhibitors and ARBs in Covid-19 can play an important role in patient care. We encourage readers to consult two other studies we published on May 1, 2020, that used independent data to reach their conclusions.2

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2020822


    A mysterious company’s coronavirus papers in top medical journals may be unraveling

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-be-unraveling

  10. #17710
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    I've already explained to you the manipulation of data.

    1. Daily case reporting lag
    2. Hotspot chasing
    3. Daily fatality reporting lag.
    4. Multiple positives by same person counts as multiple positives
    5. Probable cases
    6. Weekly all cause fatality in line with average all cause fatality.
    -------
    After all of that you still have the fact that both wuhan and Italy had the same data regarding at risk and fatality. At risk was 65plus with preexisting and fatality was 2x flu. Not to mention its a seasonal virus and follows a seasonal curve.... how much more do you need. Not a conspiracy, just poor analysis by you it seems.
    We know what your claims are. I asked you to back them up. Links? Reports of manipulation? Give me something credible.

  11. #17711
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Expression of concern: Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis

    Important scientific questions have been raised about data reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra et al—Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis1
    —published in The Lancet on May 22, 2020. Although an independent audit of the provenance and validity of the data has been commissioned by the authors not affiliated with Surgisphere and is ongoing, with results expected very shortly, we are issuing an Expression of Concern to alert readers to the fact that serious scientific questions have been brought to our attention. We will update this notice as soon as we have further information.

    https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...290-3/fulltext

    Expression of Concern: Mehra MR et al. Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.

    On May 1, 2020, we published “Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19,”1 a study of the effect of preexisting treatment with angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors and angiotensin-receptor blockers (ARBs) on Covid-19. This retrospective study used data drawn from an international database that included electronic health records from 169 hospitals on three continents. Recently, substantive concerns have been raised about the quality of the information in that database. We have asked the authors to provide evidence that the data are reliable. In the interim and for the benefit of our readers, we are publishing this Expression of Concern about the reliability of their conclusions.

    Studies of ACE inhibitors and ARBs in Covid-19 can play an important role in patient care. We encourage readers to consult two other studies we published on May 1, 2020, that used independent data to reach their conclusions.2

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2020822


    A mysterious company’s coronavirus papers in top medical journals may be unraveling

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020...-be-unraveling


    This is why science is great, you'll get stuff challenged and re-affirmed or retracted.

  12. #17712
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    We know what your claims are. I asked you to back them up. Links? Reports of manipulation? Give me something credible.
    Lol. If you don't understand that cases and fatalities reported daily, do not actually occur in 24 hrs, im not sure if you're smart enough to analyze any of the other issues. Typical you for spouting off without context.

  13. #17713
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    Lol. If you don't understand that cases and fatalities reported daily, do not actually occur in 24 hrs, im not sure if you're smart enough to analyze any of the other issues. Typical you for spouting off without context.
    It's not a problem of me, or anybody else, understanding anything. It's a problem of you not backing up your own claims. Nobody is taking my claims at face value, I had to link a model, etc. why should we take yours at face value?

    If we're going to speculate, I would say the CDC (headed by Mike Pence at this point) has every interest in both making sure your conspiracy is public, and lowballs the death count. Neither are happening though.

  14. #17714
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    It's not a problem of me, or anybody else, understanding anything. It's a problem of you not backing up your own claims. Nobody is taking my claims at face value, I had to link a model, etc. why should we take yours at face value?

    If we're going to speculate, I would say the CDC (headed by Mike Pence at this point) has every interest in both making sure your conspiracy is public, and lowballs the death count. Neither are happening though.
    , Joe Macenka, a spokesman for Virginia's COVID-19 Joint Information Command, confirmed that each positive case of the disease would be counted as a new case altogether. "If a person is tested on different days, those tests are counted as separate," he said.

    Pressed to clarify the policy, Macenka said that repeat positive cases "are counted as separate cases only if the tests occur on different days. If [a Virginia resident] tested Monday and Tuesday and both are positive, that's two positives.

  15. #17715
    Savvy Veteran spurraider21's Avatar
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    Lancet editor Richard Horton told the Guardian: “Given the questions raised about the reliability of the data gathered by Surgisphere, we have today issued an Expression of Concern, pending further investigation.

    An independent data audit is currently underway and we trust that this review, which should be completed within the next week, will tell us more about the status of the findings reported in the paper by Mandeep Mehra and colleagues.”

    This is why science is great, you'll get stuff challenged and re-affirmed or retracted.
    imagine it was treated like religion. if it's wrong, you're just reading it wrong

  16. #17716
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    It's not a problem of me, or anybody else, understanding anything. It's a problem of you not backing up your own claims. Nobody is taking my claims at face value, I had to link a model, etc. why should we take yours at face value?

    If we're going to speculate, I would say the CDC (headed by Mike Pence at this point) has every interest in both making sure your conspiracy is public, and lowballs the death count. Neither are happening though.
    Still doesn't excuse you from the ignorance of not understanding daily rates when there is lag. It just means you are not that good at math. And it completely is.

    If I give you a daily report that said there are 100 new cases reported and you took that at face value, which you admittedly do, then you would think that the daily infections are at 100. But if you take a step back and see that the positive tests came in a report with a span of 3 or 4 days, that would obliterate your trend line. You dont understand that. So you shouldn't be gossiping about it.

  17. #17717
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    [repeating statements, without any source data to support them.


    You suck at this.

  18. #17718
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Still doesn't excuse you from the ignorance of not understanding daily rates when there is lag. It just means you are not that good at math. And it completely is.

    If I give you a daily report that said there are 100 new cases reported and you took that at face value, which you admittedly do, then you would think that the daily infections are at 100. But if you take a step back and see that the positive tests came in a report with a span of 3 or 4 days, that would obliterate your trend line. You dont understand that. So you shouldn't be gossiping about it.
    He is smarter than you are, and better at critical thinking.


  19. #17719
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    You suck at this.
    ChumpDumper alt. Yes or no. Explain specifically

  20. #17720
    Believe.
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    He is smarter than you are, and better at critical thinking.

    Not really. Youre both not that smart of you dont understand lag and trends. Carry on

  21. #17721
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    ChumpDumper alt. Yes or no. Explain specifically
    You have assumed he does not understand something that you understand.

    He provides source material when asked, and considers items you provide.

    You... strut.

    That is the sign of a poser.

    Source material or GTFO. Demonstrate your understanding instead of declaring it.

  22. #17722
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Not really. Youre both not that smart of you dont understand lag and trends. Carry on
    Provide a link to any statement of mine that conclusively shows that I do not understand a lag in trends. Your claim, your burden of proof. He who asserts must prove.

    or

    some more.

  23. #17723
    Believe.
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    You have assumed he does not understand something that you understand.

    He provides source material when asked, and considers items you provide.

    You... strut.

    That is the sign of a poser.

    Source material or GTFO. Demonstrate your understanding instead of declaring it.
    I am right. You are not.
    Do daily cases and fatalities that are reported occur in the past 24 hrs. Yes or no ChumpDumper?

  24. #17724
    Believe.
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    Provide a link to any statement of mine that conclusively shows that I do not understand a lag in trends.

    or

    some more.
    lolololl

    That just proves it. Lololololol

    Lag in trends... bwagahahhahahahah

  25. #17725
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    I am right. You are not.
    Do daily cases and fatalities that are reported occur in the past 24 hrs. Yes or no ChumpDumper?
    Assuming your definition of "occur" is roughly the same as the common meaning, no.

    Easy. See how I answered the question, as asked, the first time, without changing the subject? That is called intellectual honesty.

    ... and you still do not have any source material. I am still waiting.

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