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Nice strawman parade
I've never read anywhere that kids cannot get it. To even think that would be re ed. It's like saying only sexuals can get HIV. The ifr for infants is extremely low.
The demographics of that prison didn't have much natural immunity. No children or women in that population. Not sure about the racial demographics, but probably not representative.
I would think the social dynamics of a prison or ship are way different than other communities. In a given day, I'm likely to encounter only a tiny fraction of people in my community. And I don't share A/C with hundreds of other people for hours on end.
Last edited by DarrinS; 07-19-2020 at 11:38 AM.
Nice strawman parade
I've never read anywhere that kids cannot get it. To even think that would be re ed. It's like saying only sexuals can get HIV. The ifr for infants is extremely low.
idiot. You ers can be led around like sheep by anyone with an inkling as to your bias. Russian bots love ers like you
I called it out right after it was posted. Demographics don't jive.
Don't think the prison not having women or children means much. There's nothing to suggest they are more naturally immune. Seems you're conflating immunity with severity, and we do know children and women suffer less severe symptoms on average.
Sure, and this is why mitigation has to be made on community-by-community basis. A dense row of city blocks stacked with apartment buildings will have to mitigate differently than the suburbs. I'm challenging the "natural immunity" idea, that 20 percent is some universal target to shoot for. Back to my "dense city block" example. Neighborhoods in NY had as high as 68 percent prevalence.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/n...ntibodies.html
Based on your own link you're taking the lower range and questioning even that. The upper range of total infected is 37 million. I don't really see any method to your reasoning here. Why are you pulling numbers from sites like this then second guessing them?
It seems there are too many non-normal data projections being volleyed at the same time. Compare like data to like data. What is the ifr for estimated infections to estimated deaths? What is the ifr for known infections to known deaths? Now do the same for the flu. The problem is you cannot do that with the flu because the large majority never get tested. We may discover the same is true for COVID-19, but that will likely come with serology results, not PCR.
CDC estimates the number of flu infections every season, and the range is indeed quite large. That's why I just use the mean.
I'm not second guessing Covidprojections. I just don't know what the nationwide estimate is of infections under-65 since Covidprojections doesn't age stratify. I used the New York data to guesstimate what might be the nationwide infection rate under-65.
In any event, the stat that cuts through all the other stats to definitively prove this is worse than the flu is excess ILI/Pneumonia deaths.
And reminder, these are just deaths from pneumonia. We know Covid is more than a respiratory disease, causing clotting that can lead to sudden stroke, heart failure, and other complications. There's absolutely zero argument Covid is around as dangerous as the flu. It's much more dangerous.
CDC estimates the number of flu infections every season, and the range is indeed quite large. That's why I just use the mean.
I'm not second guessing Covidprojections. I just don't know what the nationwide estimate is of infections under-65 since Covidprojections doesn't age stratify. I used the New York data to guesstimate what might be the nationwide infection rate under-65.
In any event, the stat that cuts through all the other stats to definitively prove this is worse than the flu is excess ILI/Pneumonia deaths.
And reminder, these are just deaths from pneumonia. We know Covid is more than a respiratory disease, causing clotting that can lead to sudden stroke, heart failure, and other complications. There's absolutely zero argument Covid is around as dangerous as the flu. It's much more dangerous.
There are other things happening that can cause increases in pneumonia and respiratory distress.
Guesstimates often enlist bias, you turned to NY, the worst state in the US for results and used their data for an average. Look at the deaths per 1M in NY vs the southern states. It's not even in the same ballpark. We're talking 10x or better.
So just use like data with like data and accept your findings have an accuracy range without needing to average things and cherry pick state results to use for point making. That's all I'm saying. I appreciate the effort you're putting into this but I feel like you're trying to prove something instead of discover something.
Didn't you say they were a bunch of negroes?
lolol the ifr stratified for age show the difference.CDC estimates the number of flu infections every season, and the range is indeed quite large. That's why I just use the mean.
I'm not second guessing Covidprojections. I just don't know what the nationwide estimate is of infections under-65 since Covidprojections doesn't age stratify. I used the New York data to guesstimate what might be the nationwide infection rate under-65.
In any event, the stat that cuts through all the other stats to definitively prove this is worse than the flu is excess ILI/Pneumonia deaths.
And reminder, these are just deaths from pneumonia. We know Covid is more than a respiratory disease, causing clotting that can lead to sudden stroke, heart failure, and other complications. There's absolutely zero argument Covid is around as dangerous as the flu. It's much more dangerous.
Beahahahhahahahahahahgagahaha
Lolololol
ROCKING BY JULY!
Not sure I buy that dust cloud drove up pneumonia deaths over twice their usual rate.
There are other things happening that can cause increases in pneumonia and respiratory distress.
Guesstimates often enlist bias, you turned to NY, the worst state in the US for results and used their data for an average. Look at the deaths per 1M in NY vs the southern states. It's not even in the same ballpark. We're talking 10x or better.
So just use like data with like data and accept your findings have an accuracy range without needing to average things and cherry pick state results to use for point making. That's all I'm saying. I appreciate the effort you're putting into this but I feel like you're trying to prove something instead of discover something.
I actually didn't use NY to make a claim. I just said IF I were to prorate their case by age data to the entire US, it would tick the IFR up a bit higher, but even then, it wouldn't be significant, so this isn't a point worth splitting hairs over.
Many southern states are starting to progress into the 300 deaths per million territory, with a couple over 400. They will all likely reach 400 to 500 per mil, which is Italy territory. Remember when Italy was worst case and we all wanted to avoid it? I even though the Italy situation couldn't happen here. We also could eliminate New York and NJ entirely, and this would still be deadlier than any flu season since 1918. I've discovered this is more deadly than the flu. There's no data that illustrates otherwise.
Asked and answered already.
So the video was staged?
It's TSA's soapbox here. Be sure to tell him that when he pops back up with it
Bwahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahahhahahahahahahhahaj ajajjajajajajaj
You dont know how to calculate ifr
Either that or really dark Hispanics. Didn't match the demographics of McAllen.
Also didn't seem to have HIPAA
Shw your math
bwahahahahhahahhahahahahahahhahahahahah quick use a calculator and Twitter for unbiased, and wrong , conclusions.Sh
Midnightpulp takes lowball estimate flu and compares with over estimate of covid.
Nice work. Tell me more about the mean.
Loloool
f
Yep. And mean isn't the lowball estimate. Now wear your in' mask.
You give a guesstimate and I offer an alternative possibility. I don't need to prove dust did anything of the sort, but there's no reason to assign all excess pneumonia cases to COVID other than confirmation bias.
I don't know what the effects of dust would be, but it's just an example of other variables that are being unaccounted for during this witchhunt.
Just going by this: "I used the New York data to guesstimate what might be the nationwide infection rate under-65."I actually didn't use NY to make a claim. I just said IF I were to prorate their case by age data to the entire US, it would tick the IFR up a bit higher, but even then, it wouldn't be significant, so this isn't a point worth splitting hairs over.
Why not take Montana? Why NY?
Far cry from 1200 or more that NY and NJ (and a couple other states) are experiencing.Many southern states are starting to progress into the 300 deaths per million territory, with a couple over 400. They will all likely reach 400 to 500 per mil, which is Italy territory. Remember when Italy was worst case and we all wanted to avoid it? I even though the Italy situation couldn't happen here. We also could eliminate New York and NJ entirely, and this would still be deadlier than any flu season since 1918. I've discovered this is more deadly than the flu. There's no data that illustrates otherwise.
You haven't discovered anything of the sort because you don't have accurate flu numbers, neither does the CDC and they say so.
LololIoo bwahahhahahahahahahahahhaah you dont even understand why your argument is wrong and mathematically inaccurate.
So you change subject to masks. Bwahahahahahahahahahhajajahajjajajajaj
Pwned
At least midnightpulp tries to bring something to the table with the numbers. His math is as bad as RandomGuy but it's obvious he is actually looking for something. Too bad he doesn't understand math or bias.
You don't do any math.
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