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  1. #19551
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    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ing-diagnostic


    Chumpdump midnightpulp trying to let this slip under rug. Baseline bum doesn't even know what this means. Blake will say this is all trumps fault, and random guy will talk about every hospital but only in America being over capacity.


    Lol /thread

  2. #19552
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ing-diagnostic


    Chumpdump midnightpulp trying to let this slip under rug. Baseline bum doesn't even know what this means. Blake will say this is all trumps fault, and random guy will talk about every hospital but only in America being over capacity.


    Lol /thread
    It doesn't end the thread at all.

    you just want to cover up your failure.

  3. #19553
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    It doesn't end the thread at all.

    you just want to cover up your failure.
    Never been wrong

  4. #19554
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Wrong.

  5. #19555
    Believe.
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    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres...ing-diagnostic


    Chumpdump midnightpulp trying to let this slip under rug. Baseline bum doesn't even know what this means. Blake will say this is all trumps fault, and random guy will talk about every hospital but only in America being over capacity.


    Lol /thread
    Chumpdump doesn't even understand this. Loloolol

  6. #19556
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Why don't you use ignore feature? I did

  7. #19557
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    Because he knows I'm right about everything. Can't ignore the factZ

  8. #19558
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    Because he knows I'm right about everything.
    Wrong.

  9. #19559
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    80 years old. Two of the 95 plus percent that will survive and have relatively no symptoms

    He said his wife had no COVID-19 symptoms, while Nicklaus had a sore throat and a cough. Nicklaus said they were home in North Palm Beach, Florida, from March 13 "until we were done with it" on about April 20.

    "It didn't last very long, and we were very, very fortunate, very lucky," Nicklaus said. "Barbara and I are both of the age, both of us 80 years old, that is an at-risk age. Our hearts go out to the people who did lose their lives and their families. We were just a couple of the lucky ones."
    Gossip

  10. #19560
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    Because he knows I'm right about everything. Can't ignore the factZ
    Lie

  11. #19561
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  12. #19562
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  13. #19563
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    midnightpulp,

    What do you make of what this guy is saying?


    Read the write up.

    Friston referred to some kind of “immunological dark matter” as the only plausible explanation for the huge disparity in results between countries in an interview with the Guardian last weekend.
    Highly speculative.

    His models suggest that the stark difference between outcomes in the UK and Germany, for example, is not primarily an effect of different government actions (such as better testing and earlier lockdowns) but is better explained by intrinsic differences between the populations that make the “susceptible population” in Germany — the group that is vulnerable to Covid-19 — much smaller than in the UK.
    This is wrong. UK went head on into a full herd immunity strategy early on, with Boris Johnson even endorsing to go out to the pubs and socialize. Germany's outcome is precisely an effect of better testing and cautious social distancing. They were testing more people than any other Western country at the beginning. Germany also has the highest beds per capita in Europe, 4x higher than that of the UK.

    https://www.ft.com/content/d979c0e9-...a-bbffa9cecfe6

    And I'm certain social factors play a role here, too. UK probably has the most famous pub culture in the world, with bars packed shoulder-to-shoulder. I don't think Germany's pub culture is as prevalent. Not to mention the UK's mass transit system, which is probably the busiest in the western world. Also, let's look at comparative overweight/obesity rates.

    Data released by the World Health Organisation in 2014 showed that while an issue of growing concern, within the European Union, Germany had incidence of overweight and obese adults as a percentage of the total population at 54.8% as in comparison with France at 60.7%, Spain at 60.9% or the United Kingdom at 63.4%.
    There is zero evidence Germans have some magic "immunological dark matter" that makes them more resistant to infection. Now might they be more resistant to severe outcomes than the UK? Sure, since the UK is an unhealthier country.

    As he told me in our interview, even within the UK, the numbers point to the same thing: that the “effective susceptible population” was never 100%, and was at most 50% and probably more like only 20% of the population.
    What's this even mean? Susceptible to infection or susceptible to severe outcomes? He doesn't define what susceptible means, so any conclusion here is vague. If he means 80 percent of the population won't wind up in the ICU, we already know that. That said, this interview took place over a month ago and we're finding out that "mild" cases can have long term effects.

    Another factor to consider is that some of the symptoms and health issues caused by the virus may not be apparent until later. Some individuals are discovering complications as long as two months after they’ve had SARS-CoV-2. CNN anchor Richard Quest says in an article on the site that he’s still discovering areas of damage, including a newfound level of clumsiness.
    https://thehill.com/changing-america...-be-as-mild-as

    This is the problem here:

    Professor Karl Friston, like Michael Levitt, is a statistician not a virologist; his expertise is in understanding complex and dynamic biological processes by representing them in mathematical models.
    We have too many experts outside of virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists suffering from ultracrepidarianism (https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism) and trying to make a name for themselves by being contrarian to the consensus. I'm not trying to appeal to authority, but this isn't his field. Michael Levitt broke the mold early on when articles about him predicting Wuhan's outbreak went viral and thus put a "Nobel Prize winner" in the lockdown skeptic's corner. Dig deeper and Levitt's prediction wasn't at all prescient. He simply kept changing it.



    Levitt keeps doubling down on his claim that the virus has a "natural curve" regardless of what mitigation factors a community employs, of course his argument being that people are just naturally immune. I don't buy that because of all the instances of where 60-70 percent of a population got infected, whether it was a prison, naval ship, or New York borough. What is most likely happening in these instances where the virus starts receding at 20 percent infected or whatever is a result of social behavior, not a result of some immunological "dark matter." People see reports of the virus ravaging their community and they stay home, go out less, wear masks, etc. And that small reduction in R0 pays dividends. Exponential decay is just as impactful as exponential growth.

  14. #19564
    Got Woke? DMC's Avatar
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    Mid you call it highly speculative then spend the rest of your response speculating. You used the term "magical" as if anyone ever claimed this missing link (dark matter) is supernatural. Tagging it with "magical" just creates a strawman and shows you dismissed it right away, and even made a bit of folly of it.

    That said, I agree that many scientists are using this opportunity to advertise themselves. You can see this guy reveling in the attention, he reminds me of the guy from The Fringe, not nearly as bright.

  15. #19565
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    Mid you call it highly speculative then spend the rest of your response speculating. You used the term "magical" as if anyone ever claimed this missing link (dark matter) is supernatural. Tagging it with "magical" just creates a strawman and shows you dismissed it right away, and even made a bit of folly of it.

    That said, I agree that many scientists are using this opportunity to advertise themselves. You can see this guy reveling in the attention, he reminds me of the guy from The Fringe, not nearly as bright.
    If there's no evidence for something, it should be dismissed right away. He explains away the UK vs German differences with it and doesn't acknowledge that Germany has more hospital beds, less obesity, and more robust testing. No, none of that played a role. Germans are more immune than the British because reasons.

  16. #19566
    dangerous floater Winehole23's Avatar
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    (Coughs in *cradle to grave healthcare*)

  17. #19567
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Read the write up.



    Highly speculative.



    This is wrong. UK went head on into a full herd immunity strategy early on, with Boris Johnson even endorsing to go out to the pubs and socialize. Germany's outcome is precisely an effect of better testing and cautious social distancing. They were testing more people than any other Western country at the beginning. Germany also has the highest beds per capita in Europe, 4x higher than that of the UK.

    https://www.ft.com/content/d979c0e9-...a-bbffa9cecfe6

    And I'm certain social factors play a role here, too. UK probably has the most famous pub culture in the world, with bars packed shoulder-to-shoulder. I don't think Germany's pub culture is as prevalent. Not to mention the UK's mass transit system, which is probably the busiest in the western world. Also, let's look at comparative overweight/obesity rates.



    There is zero evidence Germans have some magic "immunological dark matter" that makes them more resistant to infection. Now might they be more resistant to severe outcomes than the UK? Sure, since the UK is an unhealthier country.



    What's this even mean? Susceptible to infection or susceptible to severe outcomes? He doesn't define what susceptible means, so any conclusion here is vague. If he means 80 percent of the population won't wind up in the ICU, we already know that. That said, this interview took place over a month ago and we're finding out that "mild" cases can have long term effects.



    https://thehill.com/changing-america...-be-as-mild-as

    This is the problem here:



    We have too many experts outside of virologists, immunologists, and epidemiologists suffering from ultracrepidarianism (https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Ultracrepidarianism) and trying to make a name for themselves by being contrarian to the consensus. I'm not trying to appeal to authority, but this isn't his field. Michael Levitt broke the mold early on when articles about him predicting Wuhan's outbreak went viral and thus put a "Nobel Prize winner" in the lockdown skeptic's corner. Dig deeper and Levitt's prediction wasn't at all prescient. He simply kept changing it.



    Levitt keeps doubling down on his claim that the virus has a "natural curve" regardless of what mitigation factors a community employs, of course his argument being that people are just naturally immune. I don't buy that because of all the instances of where 60-70 percent of a population got infected, whether it was a prison, naval ship, or New York borough. What is most likely happening in these instances where the virus starts receding at 20 percent infected or whatever is a result of social behavior, not a result of some immunological "dark matter." People see reports of the virus ravaging their community and they stay home, go out less, wear masks, etc. And that small reduction in R0 pays dividends. Exponential decay is just as impactful as exponential growth.

    Our immunology is pretty ancient. Could it be that past encounters with similar viruses are protecting some populations?

  18. #19568
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    In San Antonio, caucasians are 30% of the population, but only 17% of cases.

  19. #19569
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    What, then, is driving case numbers and deaths down, particularly in hard-hit areas?

  20. #19570
    SeaGOAT midnightpulp's Avatar
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    In San Antonio, caucasians are 30% of the population, but only 17% of cases.
    Latinos work more frontline jobs, live in smaller spaces with more family members, are more multigenerational. I would guess the average Latino in Texas is fatter than the average white. Yep:



    I'm agnostic on the Vitamin D theory until we test that theory.

  21. #19571
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Latinos work more frontline jobs, live in smaller spaces with more family members, are more multigenerational. I would guess the average Latino in Texas is fatter than the average white. Yep:



    I'm agnostic on the Vitamin D theory until we test that theory.

    What you're saying makes sense. I'm just curious why some hard-hit places are doing very good now?

  22. #19572
    Damns (Given): 0 Blake's Avatar
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    What you're saying makes sense. I'm just curious why some hard-hit places are doing very good now?
    Like what

  23. #19573
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    Maybe some countries are super badass at handling epidemics, or maybe something else is going on?

  24. #19574
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    I don't know.

  25. #19575
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    Maybe some countries are super badass at handling epidemics, or maybe something else is going on?
    Well, we're terrible at it. So there's that.

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