Live by the anecdote die by the anecdote. Trash is a magical thinker in a world of reality.
Live by the anecdote die by the anecdote. Trash is a magical thinker in a world of reality.
The post I quoted was you a week ago saying two weeks from now we’d be around 150K dead. You’ve been further off than the often relied upon terrible model I posted
The rebuttal didn't seem that robust. And I have a problem with this.
Iran averaged 62 degrees in March vs. Australia's 74 degrees. Australia was pretty late to the party with their social distancing measures, and hasn't experienced "rapid virus spread" at all. They peaked over 2 weeks ago.“Given that countries currently in ‘summer’ climates, such as Australia and Iran, are experiencing rapid virus spread, a decrease in cases with increases in humidity and temperature elsewhere should not be assumed,”
https://www.worldometers.info/corona...try/australia/
Of course, we can't be 100 percent sure Australia's results are just because of their climate, but I think their situation provides some insight. Even though they have favorable population density, Melbourne's pop density is about the same as Los Angeles, and LA has 3 times the death total as the whole of Australia. Of course summer won't completely halt spread, but I think there's more than enough clues that it will slow it down to manageable levels allowing us to prepare for the Fall/Winter wave.
The White House is reportedly developing a plan to get back to 'normality
https://www.yahoo.com/news/white-hou...212600902.html
step up to these nuts
Thanks for sharing. Just read the link you sent and the entire research article associated with it. I assume you read it all as well. The article you linked in all intents and purposes directed me to the research article for further analysis. My takeaways from the article are:
- They mention the term "covering" as in stigmatized races cover some "prejudices" that are associated with their race as an effort to "downplay" their minority status. However, from the article iself, it remains unclear why minority candidates engage in this cover-up
Quote:
"Though Goffman’s classic insights into passing and covering are instructive, little is known about how these behaviors operate in modern labor markets, the conditions and motivations under which they occur, and their consequences for employment outcomes."
- There was an anecdote where a job seeker (Yvonne Orr) deliberately removed her position at an African American nonprofit organization to increase her chance at getting job interviews. I am curious as to why she did that, maybe you can explain since you linked the article. From the article itself:
"While such actions have been observed anecdotally, systematic research on the nature and consequences of this phenomenon in contemporary labor markets is practically nonexistent."
Again, they were not able to pinpoint why she did that. Looking forward to your feedback on this one.
- The focus was on Asians and African Americans
- 59 interviews were conducted (29 black, 30 Asian-American) ---> 55.9 % women
- thirty-six percent of interviewees (31% of black respondents and 40% of Asian respondents) reported that they personally engaged in résumé whitening.
- 2/3 of all interviewees knew someone else who 'whitened' their resume
I will say it's interesting how this study diverges from a statistical group as a whole to individual anecdotes. I'll try to summarize the rest of the article since I know nobody else is gonna read this sh!t.
- The individual African Americans and Asians in this study were told by "somebody" to downplay their involvement in African-American and Asian community activities in college because it was too controversial. I'd be curious to see what the control-group results are, if you could provide them. (i.e. how many interviews are scheduled for those that don't "whitewash" their resume) Just so that we can compare them. I know that you are very progressive and probably very pro-science unlink those evil Trump/orangeman-bad people so let me know when you have that article to share.
- After that, it's pretty much all anecdotal. A common theme among the Asian/Taiwanese/African-American is that they want to "Americanize" their resume...but since this is a scientific article that you listed, I'm just curious why they feel the need to do so. I never saw any indication that front.
Another thing to point out from your own link, many who were surveyed did not believe there was any discrimination
"Yet another reason for rejecting whitening is the belief that these techniques make little sense because discrimination against racial minority job applicants is rare in most labor markets. A black college student majoring in economics summarized this position:I mean in today’s society I cannot think of a situation in which it will make that much of a difference…. Because I feel like today we've progressed to the extent in which [hiring] is based more on qualifications rather than racial identifiers and then there"
- Minorities were shown to not "whiten" their resumes as much when a job or company championed "pro diversity"
- For the test conditions, African-Americans/Asians were selected as a whole to apply for 1,600 jobs. 800 of those jobs had buzzwords such as "diversity" and "inclusion" while the other 800 did not.
- Studies showed that both African-Americans and Asians did not "white-wash" their resume as much for the job openings that did not include those buzzwords. In other words, they left minority information more often on their resume that hinted they were of "Minority" status when they were applying for a job that implied they were pro-diversity
Results:
- Minority applicants that applied for pro-diversity jobs got more callbacks
- These minority applicants did not whitewash their resume as much as the other group
So I'm curious how that study:
1) explains how names with "Jaquan" get called back less to an interview? Again, you progressives are much more enlightened than I, so I look forward to your explanation and
2) "Doctors don't listen as closely to black patients" ... nothing was mentioned in that article about medical treatment, hospitals, doctors, or patients. But again, I am unenlightened so I probably am missing something
thx
Except for the ones that took their patients off the medication because of arythmias...
Details details. Gotta push Dear Leaders medical a en. That CEO didn't pay Cohen millions for access to Trump for nothing.
Last edited by RandomGuy; 04-08-2020 at 07:01 PM.
Holee Batman. Who are you and what have you done to our normally scheduled banter? Jeeez. (starts reading)
(man, I was really looking forward to playing a bit of Surviving Mars before bed, this looks to be a bit long, will try to get to it tomorrow, but thanks, don't let me forget this exists, it is worth talking about in detail)
Updated numbers
https://scontent-lax3-1.xx.fbcdn.net...a1&oe=5EB4FAC1
New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio and his top health official were telling citizens to take the subway and attend parades months after President Donald Trump restricted travel to coronavirus-plagued China.
De Blasio and New York City Health Commissioner Oxiris Barbot took turns telling citizens in February and March that the virus was not as widespread as people thought. Data now show that the city is becoming the epicenter for the coronavirus, which has killed 883 New Yorkers.
but Drumpf
Did the same exact thing.
LOL, i'm married to Jess. We live in Bryan - College Station.
I know reading is hard for you, but still man. First, it says 3 weeks, not two. Second, its been ONE week. When I posted it we were at 2.5k deaths. In a week, we're now 14.5K. So, 7 days and we've doubled twice and THEN some. 2.5k * 2 = 5 * 2 = 10k I KNOW its hard for you to understand, but we're actually moving FASTER than what I said a week ago.
All this time and you still don't get exponential growth. We may miss that mark I made. I hope we do. But to act like one week into the projection that we're somehow looking good to do so ignores all the data at hand. I never said we were hitting 150k in 3 weeks though. I was pointing out how the doubling time makes a 100k prediction to be appropriate for the short term. Nothing in the past week has changed that.
he's saying you made the post 1 week ago and you said we'd be there 2 weeks from now (as in 3 weeks from when you posted it)
Last edited by spurraider21; 04-08-2020 at 07:45 PM.
Explain your conspiracy theory.
Step up.
Point still stands. We're still on pace for that. Deaths will level off just as cases have, but will it happen within the next 2 weeks? Maybe, maybe not. There's nothing in the current death rate increases that say that's happening.
February 26th: During a press briefing at the White House, Trump claims that positive cases will soon begin to decrease.
“We’re going to be pretty soon at only five people,” he said. “And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.”
“I think every aspect of our society should be prepared,” he added later. “I don’t think it’s going to come to that, especially with the fact that we’re going down, not up. We’re going very substantially down, not up.”
Need more?
Dude caused of thousands of deaths and chris and his crew still thinks he's a hero.
Something must be done with these goons who now have started voting not in terms of what's good for the american people
Well this will certainly clear everything up!
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has abruptly switched its guidance for use of a drug touted by President Donald Trump as a possible treatment for COVID-19, dropping its reference to anecdotal dosages to say simply that there are no approved drugs for dealing with the disease.
The CDC's online advice for hydroxychloroquine was updated April 7, three days after Reuters reported that the CDC was offering what the news agency called "highly unusual guidance" for the drug's use based on "unattributed anecdotes rather than peer-reviewed science."
The updated, and shortened, guidance says simply that "hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are under investigation in clinical trials” for use on coronavirus patients and "there are no drugs or other therapeutics approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration to prevent or treat COVID-19."
The CDC originally told Reuters that the earlier guidance was crafted for doctors at the request of a White House coronavirus task force, which had urged prompt action.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...nt/2967852001/
I know it said 3 weeks, and I know it’s been a week, that’s why I said two weeks from now. But yeah I’m the one with a reading problem
Why is it so difficult for you to admit your prediction a week ago wasn’t even close even after being shown the leading model (which was terrible to begin with and keeps keeps revising down) wasn’t even in your ballpark and it runs through August and not two weeks from your prediction end date.
We all know BigCorp lobbyist in the EPA have gutted air, water, land anti-pollution regs, which will result 10Ks with disease and death.
The evidence is coming in. Air pollution damages lungs, more EPA air pollution means more damaged lungs.
Our First Evidence People Exposed to Pollution Are More Likely to Die From Coronavirus
Health experts had suspected the coronavirus pandemic would kill more people in areas where there’s higher air pollution.
Now, they have preliminary data to back it up.
found that just a small increase in long-term air pollution exposure led to a 15 percent rise in the covid-19 death rate.
https://earther.gizmodo.com/our-firs...ore-1842735108
oh so he didn't do the same thing as Bill de Blasio thanks for that
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