Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[SnakeBoy]

It's true that we have no idea how many people have had the virus with mild or no symptoms at all. Regardless, there is no path to get society back functioning until we stop (or greatly reduce) the 1k+ deaths a day, unless you're suggesting that it'll just burn through everybody no matter what we do and just be gone once everybody has built an immunity to it.

It will burn through everybody no matter what we do. Maybe we can slow it a bit but the course is set.

How many months do I have to keep telling you people...We can't "stop" it.

[ducks]

Joe Rogan On 2020 Election: I Would ‘Rather Vote For Trump’ Over Biden, Biden Can’t Handle Anything

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It will burn through everybody no matter what we do. Maybe we can slow it a bit but the course is set.

How many months do I have to keep telling you people...We can't "stop" it.

If that is the case the kill rate is more than manageable.

[Xevious]

It will burn through everybody no matter what we do. Maybe we can slow it a bit but the course is set.

How many months do I have to keep telling you people...We can't "stop" it.

Poor choice of words on my part. I didn't mean to suggest we could stop a virus, but the numbers of deaths need to be reduced before we go about business as usual.

[Chris]

[Thread]

[ChumpDumper]

So the superceding will be Cons utional?

Explain, Qhris.

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So the superceding will be Cons utional?

Explain, Qhris.

It can't be if he wants to make New York, New Jersey & Connecticut stay in place. Remember?

[picnroll]

When did Trash start upholding the cons ution?

[ChumpDumper]

It can't be if he wants to make New York, New Jersey & Connecticut stay in place. Remember?

So explain what he meant by superceding.

[midnightpulp]

I'm glad Chris turned me on to this guy. Hilarious for all the wrong reasons. Like enjoying a so-bad-it's-good B-movie.

[Nathan89]

Joe Rogan On 2020 Election: I Would ‘Rather Vote For Trump’ Over Biden, Biden Can’t Handle Anything

[monosylab1k]

celebrating a fellow Bernie to Trump re .

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So explain what he meant by superceding.

I don't know.

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When did Trash start upholding the cons ution?

Hey, picky! Your mother's waitin'. Get back to in' her.

[TimDunkem]

celebrating a fellow Bernie to Trump re .

Not even what he said. As usual, the Trump s spin a knock on Biden as a victory for Trump. Rogan basically said that's how awful Biden is, but had just criticized Trump beforehand.

[Winehole23]

[midnightpulp]

California's huge backlog of pending tests finally came in. 12 percent positive rate, which is good. https://covidtracking.com/data/state/california

NY's positive rate is 40 percent. Man, spread just went nuclear there.

[pgardn]

Michael Mina
✔@michaelmina_lab



[[[To be clear - I hope that there have been 5 million or more cases in the US by now.

This would suggest a lower infection mortality, higher population immunity, and would start to paint a clearer path how to get society back functioning.]]]

Amen.

Or a humongous e waiting to occur just around the corner.
5 million cases where people are showing very mild symptoms might be good.

[midnightpulp]

Or a humongous e waiting to occur just around the corner.
5 million cases where people are showing very mild symptoms might be good.

Yep, there's a big upside and big downside to this. The only clue we have is from the Iceland study, which found most cases are mild. They have the largest mix of randomized testing in the world, and the CFR is about .03 there (flu can be anywhere from .01 to .1). But since Iceland is so small, their sample isn't too big (around 1100), but in terms of per capita, they've tested a larger portion of their population than anyone else. From all that I've read, I think the "big upside" is more likely. There's probably millions who've had it, recovered, and never got tested. And many more millions extant cases that aren't severe enough to require treatment. So to ball park it, hopefully the numerator/denominator is something like 15million/15K deaths (accounting for Covid deaths never recorded). That would equate to a .01 CFR.

[pgardn]

Yep, there's a big upside and big downside to this. The only clue we have is from the Iceland study, which found most cases are mild. They have the largest mix of randomized testing in the world, and the CFR is about .03 there (flu can be anywhere from .01 to .1). But since Iceland is so small, their sample isn't too big (around 1100), but in terms of per capita, they've tested a larger portion of their population than anyone else. From all that I've read, I think the "big upside" is more likely. There's probably millions who've had it, recovered, and never got tested. And many more millions extant cases that aren't severe enough to require treatment. So to ball park it, hopefully the numerator/denominator is something like 15million/15K deaths (accounting for Covid deaths never recorded). That would equate to a .01 CFR.

We can hope.

[picnroll]

Policy: Health Care
Virus hot spots in South poised for disproportionate suffering
With equipment shortages coast to coast, local officials are left begging residents to stay indoors.

https://apple.news/A_afYlNFpSOOl17IhkwxXbg

So much for that in won’t be bad in rural areas theory.

[midnightpulp]

Here's a graph for all the "flu" people.



Every year, the flu runs near the apex of epidemic level and routinely es above that at the height of flu season. Covid, even if it winds up being about as bad as the flu, will stack on top of the regular flu, and push that epidemic level far beyond our healthcare capacity. So yeah, compare it to the flu. That means it's in' bad.

[Thread]

Policy: Health Care
Virus hot spots in South poised for disproportionate suffering
With equipment shortages coast to coast, local officials are left begging residents to stay indoors.

https://apple.news/A_afYlNFpSOOl17IhkwxXbg

So much for that in won’t be bad in rural areas theory.

Does you mom have a nice beaver, picky?

[ElNono]

Also interesting is the comment about the different "strains" might affect mortality. West coast got a specific "strain" early while New York broke out from the Manhattan lawyer that brought it from Italy.

I say "strain" because the different mutations aren't enough to be a totally new virus as far as your body is concerned, unlike what influenza does every year. So getting one protects you from getting the other "strain". I least that's how I read it.

I was reading there's no evidence at this time there are different strains. It's likely there will be as time goes on, but so far nobody detected specific mutations on different virus samples. (read this two days or so ago).