Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[ElNono]

Governors shouldn't be trying to get more ventilators. They should be trying to keep people off ventilators.

Ventilators are a hail mary vs covid-19.

This is ridiculous Darrin. Even if there's a 10% chance (and we both know it's closer to 20%) how do you just give up? That's asking for a lawsuit right there and then.

[dude21]

FYI that model doesn't factor in possible second waves as social distancing is relaxed. Something to keep in mind when using it.

Also our PPE resources are already strained. Can they last that long?

[MannyIsGod]

You can read about it here.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs...l%20distancing

No chance we keep social distancing at the same levels through August.

[Winehole23]

The idea that hospital beds are widely available in NYC is wrong and not supported by evidence on the ground.

Trump's pressers consist mainly of self-serving disinformation and propaganda. People who don't warch them are better informed than those who do.

[DarrinS]

This is ridiculous Darrin. Even if there's a 10% chance (and we both know it's closer to 20%) how do you just give up? That's asking for a lawsuit right there and then.

Of course they have to provide it, but they know 8-9 out of 10 are ed. I'll never get on one of those things. Just let me die, tbh. There's a reason they have to sedate you first.

[dude21]

Also the government is just managing the virus. We need to test everyone and multiple times each person to weed out the virus.

Until I see this, we're going to hit 100k deaths.

[slick'81]

You can read about it here.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs...l%20distancing

No chance we keep social distancing at the same levels through August.

yea, probably not reliable at all

[MannyIsGod]

Trump's pressers consist mainly of self-serving disinformation and propaganda. People who don't warch them are better informed than those who do.

Yup. I stopped after week one. I wish the media would stop carrying them honestly. They're just bull sessions with no real value.

[MannyIsGod]

yea, probably not reliable at all

I wouldn't say that at all. All models are wrong but they still have uses.

[dude21]

We're just testing sick people meanwhile asymptomatic people just spreading the virus.

[Winehole23]

Ventilators are a hail mary vs covid-19.

I'm not a doctor either, but I've heard Germany has reduced mortality by getting people on respirators sooner rather than later..

[ElNono]

Of course they have to provide it, but they know 8-9 out of 10 are ed. I'll never get on one of those things. Just let me die, tbh. There's a reason they have to sedate you first.

That's your choice, but you're basically forfeiting a 1 in 5 chance to survive. That's likely why it's not the most popular choice.

[DarrinS]

I've been following these models. At least for Texas, this is like 33% reduction. I'll have to use waybackmachine to confirm.

4150 projected deaths to 2025. This change from Apr. 1 to Apr. 6.

[DarrinS]

I'm not a doctor either, but I've heard Germany has reduced mortality by getting people on respirators sooner rather than later..

Link?

[dude21]

I can possibly see some treatment being rolled out in 3.5-5 months from now.

[ChumpDumper]

Relatively great news if it holds out.

[DarrinS]

I'm ing happy as right now!

Thanks midnightpulp!

[midnightpulp]

You can read about it here.

http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs...l%20distancing

No chance we keep social distancing at the same levels through August.

We have to hope seasonality plays a role and will offset that impatience. But Summer shouldn't be used to "get back to work" and try to rebuild the base economy. Summer needs to be used to fully prepare ourselves for the second Fall/Winter waves. Full on WWII type mobilization. Ventilator manufacturing, PPE manufacturing, mass testing, converting what ever structures we can find into hospitals. A massive "public works" project like this will also contribute to the economic rebuild. Probably won't happen, though. We'll get complacent. It's the new American way.

[Winehole23]

Link?

Caveat, prompt widely available testing and plenty of respirators and hospital beds-- things we don't have in the US --makes this intervention effective in Germany.

“When I have an early diagnosis and can treat patients early — for example put them on a ventilator before they deteriorate — the chance of survival is much higher,” Professor Kräusslich said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/w...eath-rate.html

[slick'81]

We have to hope seasonality plays a role and will offset that impatience. But Summer shouldn't be used to "get back to work" and try to rebuild the base economy. Summer needs to be used to fully prepare ourselves for the second Fall/Winter waves. Full on WWII type mobilization. Ventilator manufacturing, PPE manufacturing, mass testing, converting what ever structures we can find into hospitals. A massive "public works" project like this will also contribute to the economic rebuild. Probably won't happen, though. We'll get complacent. It's the new American way.

sooo true

[Reck]

The idea that hospital beds are widely available in NYC is wrong and not supported by evidence on the ground.

Cuomo said in his presser today (Yesterday now) that they do have like 85 thousand beds. That doesn't mean everyone gets one. I'm thinking those are reserved for the severly ill.

He says beds are no longer than problem. Ventilators are. The thousand ventilators the chinese were supposed to give us haven't come through either.

[MannyIsGod]

We have to hope seasonality plays a role and will offset that impatience. But Summer shouldn't be used to "get back to work" and try to rebuild the base economy. Summer needs to be used to fully prepare ourselves for the second Fall/Winter waves. Full on WWII type mobilization. Ventilator manufacturing, PPE manufacturing, mass testing, converting what ever structures we can find into hospitals. A massive "public works" project like this will also contribute to the economic rebuild. Probably won't happen, though. We'll get complacent. It's the new American way.

I have zero hope that that happens under Trump.

[midnightpulp]

sooo true

The Casinos here in CA are already talking about reopening in May.

And they're sovereign land, so the State can't issue an order for them to close. Only the Federal government has authority over them.

[Winehole23]

This is ridiculous Darrin. Even if there's a 10% chance (and we both know it's closer to 20%) how do you just give up? That's asking for a lawsuit right there and then.

Blaming the governors is currently fashionable among the President's supporters. They're partially right, state officials should share the blame for disinvesting in public health and slow-footed responses to a fast moving pandemic, but the whole point of the exercise is to deflect from Trump's catastrophic failure to lead and respond re:COVID-19, which is a threat to the whole country, not just this state or that.

[midnightpulp]

I have zero hope that that happens under Trump.

Yep. He'll campaign on some "summer of recovery" pla ude leading into the election. I do believe this bug is likely seasonal and we'll see case counts and deaths fall to manageable levels over the Summer, leading people to believe we've beaten it. Trump will hold some bull feel good rally, probably 4th of July, declaring Covid defeated and America reopened for business. Then when late Oct. rolls around, we'll watch this same movie again.