Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[Nathan89]

Jesus, what an en led in' populace we have.

Seeing a lot of this sentiment on Wingnut twitter. "Our freedumbs." What's happening now isn't unprecedented in American history. We responded to the Spanish Flu the exact same way, allowing states and municipalities to issue quarantine/stay-at-home orders per their discretion. Example, during the Spanish Flu, St. Louis locked down, while Philly did the "freedumbs" thing. Results.



All pandemics follow the same path. There's no "conspiracy" or "insidious Democrat/Communist plot to take over Murrica." These s just can't handle that the fat and happy life has to be on hold for a bit. What in' babies. All you have to do is stay home and sit on your ass.

They are rightfully concerned that the government will use this time to make permanent changes. You can see that motivation in politicians very clearly when they push their irrelevant agenda.

[ElNono]

They are rightfully concerned that the government will use this time to make permanent changes. You can see that motivation in politicians very clearly when they push their irrelevant agenda.

you can? what agenda is that? can you be more specific?

[ElNono]

Jesus, what an en led in' populace we have.

tbh, surprised nobody changed the name to Dr Fascist yet...

[slick'81]

Colorado governor ordered a lock down and now just enacted a mandatory state wide mask requirement. Why is the Texas governor such a lame incompetent?

they say greg is known for coming through in times of crisis. Yet he seems painfully slow to act here

[midnightpulp]

I read that herd immunity only comes into play after 50%+ of the population has gotten and recovered from the disease. That'd be ~150 million americans... so, really can't rely on that at this time.

If that's the case, we might have to force it. There's 100 million Americans aged <24 https://www.indexmundi.com/united_st...structure.html

The virus is benign to that age group like 99.8 percent of the time (and I expect that number to drop even more once the all the asymptomatic cases are counted). Even the Italy data found that 99.8 percent of seniors without any pre-existing conditions survived. So basically, we'll have to throw these demographics to the proverbial lions. That said, don't condone this until an anti-viral treatment is found, and I think we'll find it sooner rather than later.

[monosylab1k]

Read that something like 98% of the country is on stay at home orders.

I think it's time to make that mandatory nation wide.

The stay at home orders vary wildly tho. Where I live it’s basically a local government CYA that’s mostly toothless.

[Chinook]

Make no mistake, mainstream Dems are sneaky heels, but the republican party and "the base" operates on a completely different level of heel. They'll hold back "progress" back in this regard per usual. I'm already seeing them start to hedge on wingnut twitter. First, it was, "nothing but a little flu. Only 30 deaths. Why are we freakin out!" Now it's, "Eh, 8000 deaths, but we have to ask how many died from Covid vs. with Covid?" So no matter the death toll, they have a minimizing excuse and thus will deflect to their conspiracy nonsense.

On the other hand, I can see mainstream Dems shutting down debate of the China problem with cries of "racism." So neither the healthcare/preparedness issue will be solved (cuz socialism) or the China problem be solved (cuz racism).

Yeah, Trump has handled this poorly, but there were huge issues that helped it seed so fast, and those were there because of both parties' complacency. The reason why the nation's safety net is so bad isn't because the GOP hates helping poor people -- that's basically their purpose. It's because the Dems have consistently been content to promote elites who are willing to sell economic liberalism for social gains. That's who we get so many people who worship these billionaire oligarchs who economically seem to come from the Gilded Age but just happen to say the right things about LGBTs, minorities and women. They've surrendered manufacture workers to the GOP because of a false equivalency between populism and fascism. Some of this is just the Dems having their hearts in the right place "in a perfect world" but being way to amenable to compromising with a GOP that rarely seems to make concessions. But there's also just the greater marginalization of economic liberalism that comes from having too many people entrenched in power for too long and a party desperate to court money to keep up with the GOP in a post Citizens United world.

I don't think the right wing needs more expansion. They have their clear issues with the truth and with being too inclined to change their argument to not have to confront the bigger issues with their world-views. They will forever be a weird union of planters and yeomanry that seems like it should have never formed but still remains locked together somehow.

[ElNono]

If that's the case, we might have to force it. There's 100 million Americans aged <24 https://www.indexmundi.com/united_st...structure.html

The virus is benign to that age group like 99.8 percent of the time (and I expect that number to drop even more once the all the asymptomatic cases are counted). Even the Italy data found that 99.8 percent of seniors without any pre-existing conditions survived. So basically, we'll have to throw these demographics to the proverbial lions. That said, don't condone this until an anti-viral treatment is found, and I think we'll find it sooner rather than later.

I think the hope is that we find at least a treatment relatively soon. That would reduce drastically the number of deaths and at least would make more sense then.

[DarrinS]

[Nathan89]

If that's the case, we might have to force it. There's 100 million Americans aged <24 https://www.indexmundi.com/united_st...structure.html

The virus is benign to that age group like 99.8 percent of the time (and I expect that number to drop even more once the all the asymptomatic cases are counted). Even the Italy data found that 99.8 percent of seniors without any pre-existing conditions survived. So basically, we'll have to throw these demographics to the proverbial lions. That said, don't condone this until an anti-viral treatment is found, and I think we'll find it sooner rather than later.

Said weeks ago we should do a controlled burn with the virus.

[midnightpulp]

They are rightfully concerned that the government will use this time to make permanent changes. You can see that motivation in politicians very clearly when they push their irrelevant agenda.

No, I just think they want to cut their noses off to spite their faces to "own the libs." Even Pelosi's pork didn't have any Freedumb impairing stipulations, not anywhere near the level of Patriot Act pork.

[monosylab1k]

Still semenshielding for Trump

[Nathan89]

[boutons_deux]

Still semenshielding for Trump

21 Jan? Trash was told by the hated Deep State early Jan that the virus was coming, so he naively banned Chinese, and figured he had done enough to get reelected.

[midnightpulp]

Fauci dropped the ball there, but Fauci isn't the only expert in town. Trump was warned by the HHS director on Jan. 3rd. Like I said earlier in this thread, a good manager appraises competence, delegates accordingly, and (adding here) listens to multiple points of view. Fauci saying that on Jan. 21st doesn't absolve Trump selling this as a little flu into early March.

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status...285824/photo/1

[spurraider21]

today's marching orders, apparently

[spurraider21]

i'd love to see the full interview instead of a one minute bit, but even then, just because he said the american people dont have to worry about it "right now" (the day the first person tested positive) that doesnt mean preventative measures shouldn't have been taking place, and testing been rapidly deployed to any affected areas.

[midnightpulp]

Interesting blurb from the WoM Italy page:

Italy: the real number of COVID-19 cases in the country could be 5,000,0000 (compared to the 119,827 confirmed ones) according to a study which polled people with symptoms who have not been tested, and up to 10,000,000 or even 20,0000,000 after taking into account asymptomatic cases, according to Carlo La Vecchia, a Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the Statale di Milano University.

The number of deaths could also be underestimated by 3/4 (in Italy as well as in other countries) [source], meaning that the real number of deaths in Italy could be around 60,000.

If these estimates were true, the mortality rate from COVID-19 would be much lower (around 25 times less) than the case fatality rate based solely on laboratory-confirmed cases and deaths, since it would be underestimating cases (the denominator) by a factor of about 1/100 and deaths by a factor of 1/4.

Grain of salt here is that it relies on polling, but hopefully it points to some truth, meaning the CFR would be massively, massively lower (.03, which correlates with Iceland's CFR, who've done randomized testing).

[ElNono]

All this really means is that we burned through February without getting ready

[DarrinS]

All this really means is that we burned through February without getting ready

I think we have much more information now than we had in January. WHO was still saying there was no human-human spread back then.

Can you point me to some articles from early February that suggested we should start shutting everything down?

[Blake]

I think we have much more information now than we had in January. WHO was still saying there was no human-human spread back then.

Can you point me to some articles from early February that suggested we should start shutting everything down?

So why the scorn for Fauci from January?

[Spurs Homer]

fast forward 5 years into the future....


some people will be asking themselves (those lucky to still be alive)...

"why the did I spend 4 years of my life defending a con man criminal 24/7?"

[monosylab1k]

So why the scorn for Fauci from January?

today's marching orders, apparently

@ anyone who thinks Darrin is “too smart for this”

[DarrinS]

So why the scorn for Fauci from January?

No scorn, just saying that our best experts couldn't have predicted this outcome from our knowledge in January.

[DarrinS]

@ anyone who thinks Darrin is “too smart for this”

^who is this got?