Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[apalisoc_9]

Don't have studies like that, but it is a coronavirus, so the experts I've read don't expect this behave differently than other coronaviruses (like the cold virus) in that regard.

There was a study in 04 that showed that the cold flu can lay dormant. scary honestly because aysmptomatic people can just carry it and spread whenever/

[Thread]

Population density. New York City has 26k people per sq mile, while Los Angeles has 3700 per square mile. New York also uses mass transit way more and is located in a cooler climate. I've looked at the flu infection rates for both states, and New York's infection rate is 7.5x higher than California's. New York has many factors working against it.

Midst is hittin' it of a Corona'd Saturday night.

Proud of ya boy.

Midst

[ElNono]

Money over country. Rinse and repeat.

[ElNono]

New York was critically late in implementing any type of lockdown/social distancing effort. That, combined with their population density, average age (top 10 oldest in the US), weather, and mass transit use, it was just the perfect recipe for this thing to go nuclear there.

Louisiana was "densely populated" for Mardi Gras, so that could explain why spread is taking off there. I also looked up how the state deals with the flu, and they seem to get hit particularly hard by it vs. other Southern states. Don't know if it's because of their healthcare infrastructure, lifestyle (smoking, beetus, obesity, etc), and such, but flu death rates are correlating pretty closely with how hard a region gets hit. Ex. Two weeks ago I made that flu/covid thread, and found New York's flu infection rate to be 7.5x higher than both Cali and Texas. NY's death rate is 10x than Cali and 35x higher than Texas.

As far as different strains, this scientist sheds light.

Washington had a nursing home get hit and are located in the climate band where it's theorized the virus likes most. And even then, Washington has flattened. Only 9 percent growth rate.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

But then Louisiana isn't on the climate band. Neither is Iceland, IIRC.

I'm not stating you're wrong, far from it. It's the same thing I was telling Darrin earlier, there's a plethora of reasons that make sense (climate, strains, density) but there isn't necessarily strong evidence at this time that we have a clear and specific pattern.

[midnightpulp]

Money over country. Rinse and repeat.

"Healthcare and the profit motive are fundamentally incompatible."

[midnightpulp]

But then Louisiana isn't on the climate band. Neither is Iceland, IIRC.

I'm not stating you're wrong, far from it. It's the same thing I was telling Darrin earlier, there's a plethora of reasons that make sense (climate, strains, density) but there isn't necessarily strong evidence at this time that we have a clear and specific pattern.

Louisiana, for what seems to be unknown reasons, gets hit pretty hard by the flu. I think looking at how regions handle the flu is probably the best insight we're going to get on predicting how hard a region will get hit for the time being.

[Thread]

Louisiana, for what seems to be unknown reasons, gets hit pretty hard by the flu. I think looking at how regions handle the flu is probably the best insight we're going to get on predicting how hard a region will get hit for the time being.

Midst, they went to Mardi Gras en masse. They're paying for that mistake.

[DarrinS]

Louisiana, for what seems to be unknown reasons, gets hit pretty hard by the flu. I think looking at how regions handle the flu is probably the best insight we're going to get on predicting how hard a region will get hit for the time being.

Poverty, poor hygeine, obesity, etc.

[slick'81]

Poverty, poor hygeine, obesity, etc.

America?

[DarrinS]

America?

Large parts, unfortunately.

[slick'81]

Lol at georgia reopening beaches,tbh

[Splits]

So you're projecting NY/NJ to hit 1800 deaths per day in 10 days?

At the high end, yes. At the low end, minimum 700.

The way I'm projecting has both areas combined averaging about 110 deaths per day, with maybe 250 at the high end. I guess we can both agree we hope my math is right.

Good news is we're at the low-ish end of my NY/NJ prediction



Bad news is your "250 at the high end" prediction was complete

[Splits]

Trump is an ignorant clown.

February. The lost month

[midnightpulp]

Good news is we're at the low-ish end of my NY/NJ prediction



Bad news is your "250 at the high end" prediction was complete

I gave them Italy's growth rate, too.

The growth rate for Italy's case count was 60 percent over that 7 day period (3500 to 5700 average). If New York has a 60 percent growth rate during the week after their inflection point, we can expect an average daily case count of 8000 with a peak of 9400.

Their CFR went from .9 to 3.1 over this time. I held out hope NY would handle it like Germany (1 percent CFR).

[Splits]

I gave them Italy's growth rate, too.



Their CFR went from .9 to 3.1 over this time. I held out hope NY would handle it like Germany (1 percent CFR).

They're close to "stabilizing". It takes awhile to reach the peak, when you hit it, it sustains for a couple of weeks, each day feeling like a week. But NY/NJ is a few days off from that peak, if they can hold the fort their hospitals will hold up and avoid a worst case catastrophe if this thing was more deadly

[boutons_deux]

Repug MISgovernance by racist, cheatin', election-stealing Gov

Confusion surrounds Georgia’s coronavirus lockdown



You can still play golf.

You can still go to the beach.

Or shop for groceries,

get takeout from a restaurant,

pick up medicine,

see a doctor,

exercise outdoors, and

go to church.

You can even, in many instances, go to work.

So many loopholes reside in Gov. Brian Kemp’s statewide shelter-at-home order that

many Georgians spent Friday in a state of confusion and disarray,

trying to determine what is — and isn’t — allowed as the state combats the coronavirus pandemic.

Some questioned whether the exceptions undermine the lockdown’s effectiveness.

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/con...irus-lockdown/

[boutons_deux]

Repug MISgovernance by racist, cheatin', election-stealing Gov

Confusion surrounds Georgia’s coronavirus lockdown

Here's how a BLUE state does it, no GA confusion, no weeks-late shutdown:

A friend tried to go surf fishing near Doheny Beach CA (San Juan Capistrano) but every parking area was cordoned off.

[ElNono]

Why Taiwan's Coronavirus Response Is Among The Best Globally

Why does Taiwan have less than 400 confirmed cases of Covid-19? Taiwan's experience with the 2003 SARS outbreak "helped many parts of the region react faster to the current coronavirus outbreak and take the danger more seriously than in other parts of the world," reports CNN, "both at a governmental and societal level, with border controls and the wearing of face masks quickly becoming routine as early as January in many areas."

Their article also notes that Taiwan "has a world-class health care system, with universal coverage," which drew praise in new report published in the Journal of the American Medical Association: "Taiwan rapidly produced and implemented a list of at least 124 action items in the past five weeks to protect public health," report co-author Jason Wang, a Taiwanese doctor and associate professor of pediatrics at Stanford Medicine, said in a statement. "The policies and actions go beyond border control because they recognized that that wasn't enough." This was while other countries were still debating whether to take action. In a study conducted in January, Johns Hopkins University said Taiwan was one of the most at-risk areas outside of mainland China -- owing to its close proximity, ties and transport links.

Among those early decisive measures was the decision to ban travel from many parts of China, stop cruise ships docking at the island's ports, and introduce strict punishments for anyone found breaching home quarantine orders. In addition, Taiwanese officials also moved to ramp up domestic face-mask production to ensure the local supply, rolled out island-wide testing for coronavirus -- including re-testing people who had previously unexplained pneumonia -- and announced new punishments for spreading disinformation about the virus.

"Given the continual spread of Covid-19 around the world, understanding the action items that were implemented quickly in Taiwan, and the effectiveness of these actions in preventing a large-scale epidemic, may be instructive for other countries," Wang and his co-authors wrote.... Taiwan is in such a strong position now that, after weeks of banning the export of face masks in order to ensure the domestic supply, the government said Wednesday that it would donate 10 million masks to the United States, Italy, Spain and nine other European countries, as well as smaller nations who have diplomatic ties with the island.

[Splits]

Oh, and "actual" CFR is a worthless measure, don't even bring it in to the calculus when the reporting data behind it is completely scattershot. It's like a 2 year lagging indicator. "Real-time" CFR, 10% new case/death at peak is a safe assumption.

[boutons_deux]

Why Taiwan's Coronavirus Response Is Among The Best Globally

Taiwan and some other countries have not spent the last 40+ years defunding, destaffing its govt into dysfunctionality, while the official Repug propaganda strategy was

"Government IS the problem"

drown the govt in a bathtub

... which is what the oligarchy paid Repug s to do,

as the feckless Dems complied in silence (or actively like Bill Clinton)

compounded the Macho Rugged Individualism " govt, taxes" myth so beloved by low-wage, low-ed, overweight/obese un-rugged Americans.

The oligarchy/Repugs have actually made America ungovernable and dysfunctional.

[boutons_deux]

right wing hate media dumbing down (only some of) America

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAh4uS4f78o

============

Washington state nonprofit files lawsuit saying Fox News misled viewers about coronavirus

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/washington-state-nonprofit-files-lawsuit-saying-fox-news-misled-viewers-about-coronavirus/

[Winehole23]

Another savvy investment move by Sen Loeffler:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...ear-investment

[boutons_deux]

True?

[Thread]

right wing hate media dumbing down (only some of) America

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NAh4uS4f78o

============

Washington state nonprofit files lawsuit saying Fox News misled viewers about coronavirus

https://www.rawstory.com/2020/04/washington-state-nonprofit-files-lawsuit-saying-fox-news-misled-viewers-about-coronavirus/

That'll be the new norm goin' forward,,,suing the outta each other!!!

[Thread]

Another savvy investment move by Sen Loeffler:

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020...ear-investment

You got nary room. Your Feinstein is in this pickle as well.