Coronavirus is one mutation away from infecting millions

[DarrinS]

I was reading there's no evidence at this time there are different strains. It's likely there will be as time goes on, but so far nobody detected specific mutations on different virus samples. (read this two days or so ago).

The explosion in NYC seems more related to population density, subways, elevators, etc.

[ElNono]

The explosion in NYC seems more related to population density, subways, elevators, etc.

I keep hearing this too, but I don't think we're at a point where we can definitely conclude that. It's clear that's one factor, since it goes against something we know works well against spreading (social distancing), however, NY is so far out there compared against other fairly densely populated cities. I think only time will answer this conclusively.

[DarrinS]

I keep hearing this too, but I don't think we're at a point where we can definitely conclude that. It's clear that's one factor, since it goes against something we know works well against spreading (social distancing), however, NY is so far out there compared against other fairly densely populated cities. I think only time will answer this conclusively.

Well, it's also a major destination for international travel.

[DarrinS]

Wuhan is very similar to NYC in many respects, only larger.

[ElNono]

Well, it's also a major destination for international travel.

That's what doesn't make a lot of sense for that theory. LAX is even more of such a destination, especially considering the Asian source of the virus. The whole west coast is, really.

This is somewhat what the 'strains' theory is trying to fill the gap on, to explain how Louisiana of all places got it so incredibly bad.

There's also the super spreaders theory, the theory that millions and millions of people are already infected.

I think there's some validity to all of them, but just guesses right now.

[DarrinS]

That's what doesn't make a lot of sense for that theory. LAX is even more of such a destination, especially considering the Asian source of the virus. The whole west coast is, really.

This is somewhat what the 'strains' theory is trying to fill the gap on, to explain how Louisiana of all places got it so incredibly bad.

There's also the super spreaders theory, the theory that millions and millions of people are already infected.

I think there's some validity to all of them, but just guesses right now.

I was just looking at this list of cities by population density

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...lation_density


So many in NY and NJ

[DarrinS]

By comparison, LA is very spread out

[ElNono]

I was just looking at this list of cities by population density

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List...lation_density

So many in NY and NJ

By comparison, LA is very spread out

It's certainly a factor, no doubt about it. How much of a factor is a big question mark. Top affected States also include Washington and Louisiana, which really are nowhere near the top of that list.

[ElNono]

I'm actually curious if/when some States might stop reporting numbers to avoid taking a political hit. This is how ugly this could turn.

[ChumpDumper]

I'm actually curious if/when some States might stop reporting numbers to avoid taking a political hit. This is how ugly this could turn.

I'm sure there will be like not counting nursing home massacres and the like.

[Winehole23]

The distinctive US policy of undertesting for COVID-19 continues

A coronavirus test made by Abbott Laboratories and introduced with considerable fanfare by President Donald Trump in a Rose Garden news conference this week is giving state and local health officials very little added capacity to perform speedy tests needed to control the COVID-19 pandemic.

“That’s a whole new ballgame,” Trump said. “I want to thank Abbott Labs for the incredible work they’ve done. They’ve been working around-the-clock.”

Yet a do ent circulated among officials at the Department of Health and Human Services and the Federal Emergency Management Agency this week shows that state and local public health labs were set to receive a total of only 5,500 coronavirus tests from the giant manufacturer of medical devices, diagnostics and drugs, according to emails obtained by Kaiser Health News.

That number falls well short of the “about 500,000 capacity of Abbott tests that” Dr. Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said were in the states and were “not being utilized.”

https://khn.org/news/trump-touted-ab...or-entire-u-s/

[Winehole23]

[apalisoc_9]

I'm actually curious if/when some States might stop reporting numbers to avoid taking a political hit. This is how ugly this could turn.

Already happening. Fake numbers.

[boutons_deux]

“because we wanted to leave market share for hospitals and other healthcare providers to purchase through the commercial sector.”

of course the Repugs automatically enable pandemic profiteering

[Winehole23]

HE SHUT DOWN TRAVEL FROM CHINA

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/u...trictions.html

[Thread]

HE SHUT DOWN TRAVEL FROM CHINA

The Winester

[Reck]

Already happening. Fake numbers.

Is not happening yet as his precious red states haven't gotten hit properly yet. Florida's peak for instance won't happen until mid May.

[Winehole23]

Is not happening yet as his precious red states haven't gotten hit properly yet. Florida's peak for instance won't happen until mid May.

Undertesting suppresses the number of diagnosed cases and hence, excess mortality attributable to COVID-19.

[midnightpulp]

That's what doesn't make a lot of sense for that theory. LAX is even more of such a destination, especially considering the Asian source of the virus. The whole west coast is, really.

This is somewhat what the 'strains' theory is trying to fill the gap on, to explain how Louisiana of all places got it so incredibly bad.

There's also the super spreaders theory, the theory that millions and millions of people are already infected.

I think there's some validity to all of them, but just guesses right now.

New York was critically late in implementing any type of lockdown/social distancing effort. That, combined with their population density, average age (top 10 oldest in the US), weather, and mass transit use, it was just the perfect recipe for this thing to go nuclear there.

Louisiana was "densely populated" for Mardi Gras, so that could explain why spread is taking off there. I also looked up how the state deals with the flu, and they seem to get hit particularly hard by it vs. other Southern states. Don't know if it's because of their healthcare infrastructure, lifestyle (smoking, beetus, obesity, etc), and such, but flu death rates are correlating pretty closely with how hard a region gets hit. Ex. Two weeks ago I made that flu/covid thread, and found New York's flu infection rate to be 7.5x higher than both Cali and Texas. NY's death rate is 10x than Cali and 35x higher than Texas.

As far as different strains, this scientist sheds light.

[midnightpulp]

Is not happening yet as his precious red states haven't gotten hit properly yet. Florida's peak for instance won't happen until mid May.

Michigan went for him. But Trump and "the base" has a built in deflection because they have a Dem governor. Same with Louisiana. Dem mayor in New Orleans.

[apalisoc_9]

New York was critically late in implementing any type of lockdown/social distancing effort. That, combined with their population density, average age (top 10 oldest in the US), weather, and mass transit use, it was just the perfect recipe for this thing to go nuclear there.

Louisiana was "densely populated" for Mardi Gras, so that could explain why spread is taking off there. I also looked up how the state deals with the flu, and they seem to get hit particularly hard by it vs. other Southern states. Don't know if it's because of their healthcare infrastructure, lifestyle (smoking, beetus, obesity, etc), and such, but flu death rates are correlating pretty closely with how hard a region gets hit. Ex. Two weeks ago I made that flu/covid thread, and found New York's flu infection rate to be 7.5x higher than both Cali and Texas. NY's death rate is 10x than Cali and 35x higher than Texas.

As far as different strains, this scientist sheds light.

Scrah, you got any studies about the virus and if it stays in the body long term similar to a plethora of viruses that attack once every few years ala chicken Pox turning into shingles, Cold Sore herpes etc. I'm actually curious if this virus can stay dormant for years similar to other viruses and attack when things like stress comes into factor. Worst part is that unlike, koriwhats herpers this covid19 is deadly and isn't just a minor skin infection with the only possibility of death is through natural birth delivery during an outbreak...And unlike many other viruses, COVID19 is extremely contagious.

We can be looking at multiple waves of corona if this is the case

[midnightpulp]

It's certainly a factor, no doubt about it. How much of a factor is a big question mark. Top affected States also include Washington and Louisiana, which really are nowhere near the top of that list.

Washington had a nursing home get hit and are located in the climate band where it's theorized the virus likes most. And even then, Washington has flattened. Only 9 percent growth rate.

https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/en

[Reck]

New York was critically late in implementing any type of lockdown/social distancing effort.

Hate to do it, bud but we went into lockdown at the same time California did.

https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/20/cali...rder-lockdown/


Basically a day apart between the two lockdowns.

I dont know why it exploded here but not in California whose population is as robust as the former.

[midnightpulp]

Scrah, you got any studies about the virus and if it stays in the body long term similar to a plethora of viruses that attack once every few years ala chicken Pox turning into shingles, Cold Sore herpes etc. I'm actually curious if this virus can stay dormant for years similar to other viruses and attack when things like stress comes into factor. Worst part is that unlike, koriwhats herpers this covid19 is deadly and isn't just a minor skin infection with the only possibility of death is through natural birth delivery during an outbreak...And unlike many other viruses, COVID19 is extremely contagious.

We can be looking at multiple waves of corona if this is the case

Don't have studies like that, but it is a coronavirus, so the experts I've read don't expect this behave differently than other coronaviruses (like the cold virus) in that regard.

[midnightpulp]

Hate to do it, bud but we went into lockdown at the same time California did.

https://www.ksla.com/2020/03/20/cali...rder-lockdown/


Basically a day apart between the two lockdowns.

I dont know why it exploded here but not in California whose population is as robust as the former.

Population density. New York City has 26k people per sq mile, while Los Angeles has 3700 per square mile. New York also uses mass transit way more and is located in a cooler climate. I've looked at the flu infection rates for both states, and New York's infection rate is 7.5x higher than California's. New York has many factors working against it.