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  1. #21101
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    Thinking 22% is ing herd immunity
    "Look at all those people that died in NY that's real bad" and a second later "Look NY has herd immunity now because of all those people that died, the rest of America should be like NY"
    If 30-40% have natural immunity, it's close.
    Being immune to the cold does not make you immune to this just because there's an immunuity to a seperate coronavirus doesn't mean you can say you are immune to this.

  2. #21102
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    You can have levels so low, you test positive, but aren't infectious.
    Gave up real quick on that herd mentality argument I see.

  3. #21103
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    I thought we were talking about infection rates needed for herd mentality. What does mortality rate have to do with that? Also deaths lag infections.
    They are REALLY lagging in the UK.

  4. #21104
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    You can have levels so low, you test positive, but aren't infectious.
    It’s a binary test, you’re either positive or negative, do you seriously not understand how that works?

    When a woman who’s 8 months pregnant takes a pregnancy test it doesn’t show up that she’s “more pregnant” than a woman 3 weeks pregnant.

  5. #21105
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Gave up real quick on that herd mentality argument I see.
    Nope. PCR tests are too sensitive and they are conducting them on a massive scale compared to Mar-Apr.

  6. #21106
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    It’s a binary test, you’re either positive or negative, do you seriously not understand how that works?

    When a woman who’s 8 months pregnant takes a pregnancy test it doesn’t show up that she’s “more pregnant” than a woman 3 weeks pregnant.

    Do you know what a confusion matrix is? Do you know what a ROC curve is?

  7. #21107
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    You're moving goalposts.

    PCR tests are too sensitive and they are conducting them on a massive scale compared to Mar-Apr.
    Because we all know the virus doesn't replicate if the PCR detects it early.

  8. #21108
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Do you know what a confusion matrix is? Do you know what a ROC curve is?
    looks like you learned some cool terms in some COVID is a hoax literature you’ve read recently.

  9. #21109
    Take the fcking keys away baseline bum's Avatar
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    looks like you learned some cool terms in some COVID is a hoax literature you’ve read recently.


    Probably the page you get taken to after donating money to Trump's campaign.

  10. #21110
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Probably the page you get taken to after donating money to Trump's campaign.
    it’s so obvious when Karrin learns something new from a right wing talking point and is anxious to share his new expertise with spurstalk

  11. #21111
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    Do you know what a confusion matrix is? Do you know what a ROC curve is?
    You can be positive but not infectious, because that's how disease works, in terms of a confusion matrix you'd still be considered a true positive. And just because you are not infectious at the time of testing doesn't mean you weren't infectious before

  12. #21112
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    looks like you learned some cool terms in some COVID is a hoax literature you’ve read recently.
    Lol, no. If you have a model (or test) that predicts a binary outcome, you will have false positives and false negatives. Typically, you want to maximize your sensitivity/recall while minimizing false positive rate.

  13. #21113
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    You can be positive but not infectious, because that's how disease works, in terms of a confusion matrix you'd still be considered a true positive. And just because you are not infectious at the time of testing doesn't mean you weren't infectious before
    True. But this is why some people who recovered from covid (in some cases for months) still test positive.

  14. #21114
    4-25-20 Will Hunting's Avatar
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    Lol, no. If you have a model (or test) that predicts a binary outcome, you will have false positives and false negatives. Typically, you want to maximize your sensitivity/recall while minimizing false positive rate.
    What you describe, people who have COVID-19 but "aren't infectious," aren't false positives.

  15. #21115
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    What you describe, people who have COVID-19 but "aren't infectious," aren't false positives.
    Read previous post I made to Trainwreck

  16. #21116
    my unders, my frgn whites pgardn's Avatar
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    A few months and mutations later that immunity is gone. So no.

    This is a flu like virus. Well never achieve herd immunity. Its a myth

    Thats why we also will never have a vaccine.

    In a few years lethality will decrease. Thats all we can look forward to
    The short term lethality has already decreased because we know better what to do with patients who have it.

    The rest is just complete horse .
    This virus is classified and is molecularly VERY different that the flu viruses.
    AS OF PRESENT: This virus looks like it will be MUCH EASIER to produce an effective vaccine compared to the flu just based on the fact flu virusES MUTATE in significant ways.

    Why is it you dont want a vaccine for this virus enough so that you just lie about it?

  17. #21117
    A neverending cycle Trainwreck2100's Avatar
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    True. But this is why some people who recovered from covid (in some cases for months) still test positive.
    Ok but what does that have to do with confusion matrixes?

  18. #21118
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    Coronavirus cases rise in 22 states



    https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-ca...749c12698.html

  19. #21119
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    Texas has been declining since July. Harris county dumped 14k backlogged cases on Sept. 22

  20. #21120
    R.C. Drunkford TimDunkem's Avatar
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    Darrin also said no one was dying in July.

  21. #21121
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    VA governor and family contracted Covid

  22. #21122
    Veteran DarrinS's Avatar
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    What you describe, people who have COVID-19 but "aren't infectious," aren't false positives.
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54000629

  23. #21123
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  24. #21124
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    The short term lethality has already decreased because we know better what to do with patients who have it.

    The rest is just complete horse .
    This virus is classified and is molecularly VERY different that the flu viruses.
    AS OF PRESENT: This virus looks like it will be MUCH EASIER to produce an effective vaccine compared to the flu just based on the fact flu virusES MUTATE in significant ways.

    Why is it you dont want a vaccine for this virus enough so that you just lie about it?
    Who told you it doesn't mutate?

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...study-us-cases

  25. #21125
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    Those are minor mutations that as of yet have not resulted in a new strain. Meaning as far as your body is concerned (or a vaccine) it is the same virus unlike influenza.

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