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Exactly! How can we expect similar results when our testing is a complete joke right now? Maybe warm weather will help? Really!?
!0% growth in the number of detection per day (10, 11, 12.1, etc) is textbook exponential growth. We're growing faster than that rate right now, which just means its faster exponential growth, but even at 10% a day there is still a doubling time. That does not occur with linear growth.
Exactly! How can we expect similar results when our testing is a complete joke right now? Maybe warm weather will help? Really!?
He's got two posts I have read that are sound with pretty easy math.
https://medium.com/@donnellymjd/covi...w-a7c62afac81e
https://medium.com/@donnellymjd/covi...e-54a5c8137d42
My feeling here is that they're are regions that can naturally slow the doubling because of the different variables at play, and then when you add measures (stay-at-home, testing, social distancing, etc) on top of that, you won't get a runaway scenario. I don't see how anyone can disagree that population density is just naturally a big driver of growth. I won't even appeal to the climate argument.
I'm not suggesting Texas open for business because they have a thin population density, maybe a favorable climate (if the warm/humid theory holds), etc, I just have a problem extrapolating Italy's scenario to a totally different environment.
Assuming the goal is to simply avoid the shutdown of the healthcare system then its possible our current actions will allow for us to avoid that outcome. But none of the current data will help you know if that is the case currently. If the outcome is to be South Korea, then forget it. We're not doing what they did and we WILL have more spread than they did because of it. You can't put in a fraction of the effort and expect the same results.
its crazy ppl get carried away by numbers while ignoring the physical differences
SK did great but we are not doing anything close
and Italy actually shut down earlier than we did. which means we will most likely get wrecked. onoy advantage we have is people can run away from hotspots to other states. Italiand and Spaniars are well ed on that front
Population density obviously drives easier transmission. But most people who live in Texas live in a population densities comparable to Lombardy. Its not NYC there. So if Population Density is a big variable (and it almost certainly is) then the 2nd worst outbreak on Earth (NYC should be considered the worst) occurred in a place with comparable population densities to most of the places in Texas where people live.
you avoid the shutdown and millions lives are lost
plain and simple. now is that better for the nation in the long run? some may say
I disagree because too many unknowns, herd immunity might work, we might get a cure, we might get a vaccine but we might not
the smartest thing we can do is gain time and we gain time by flattening the curve
But what if testing increases by 100 percent a day? It's also worth nothing that appealing to strict case number doesn't necessarily reveal the severity of the situation. If we double in cases tomorrow, but all those cases were just "mild" and can be easily treated at home, it won't be the problem as perceived. I know that's the ideal, but my point is that health and disposition of the subjects will play a factor. Italy has one of the oldest populations in the world, heavy smokers, the region that got hit is famous for its pollution, and, 99.2 percent of the +65 cases in Italy survived if they didn't have a preexisting condition. We're not exactly the healthiest country, but these are also things to consider.
Lets compare them.
Lombardy - 1100 per SQ mile
San Antonio - 3323 per SQ mile (Bexar county at 1500 or so)
Houston 3600, Harris County 2700
You can keep going for Texas and its going to be much of the same story.
Do you see why pointing to population density as a limiting factor in Texas isn't a good thing?
The Lombardy region is also home to a very old population who live in one of the most polluted cities in Europe. Italy also has the multigenerations under one roof tradition more than most. Italy's mortality rate from the flu is 10x higher than it is in the US. So we can't discount susceptibility.
I'll nit with you here, but Milan's population density is 7,000 km2 while Houston is 1,650 km2. I'd compare Texas to Lombardy, but I don't think that's really fair.
Aren't the numbers just reflecting the ramped up testing and identification?
I'm not going to make the argument the US is healthier than Italy. They on average live 4 years longer than Americans. Thats a big ing difference. Something like 70% of American adults have a major preexisting condition.
Increasing the tests by 100% a day would mean the entire population gets tested very quickly. We're not doing that. The testing is going to reach a plateau. It doesn't mater if you test the entire population of a country every day. If you get an increase in the number of cases each day by a specific percentage that is troubling AF.
Look man, I'm not trying to be some kind of doomsday prophet banging on a bell yelling the end is nigh, but we are in a bad situation right now and the data fully supports that this is bad. Not sure what to tell you.
After learning that the state's stockpile of medical equipment had 16,000 fewer ventilators than New Yorkers would need in a severe pandemic, Gov. Andrew Cuomo came to a fork in the road in 2015. He could have chosen to buy more ventilators. Instead, he asked his health commissioner, Howard Zucker to assemble a task force and draft rules for rationing the ventilators they already had.
That task force came up with rules that will be imposed when ventilators run short. Patients assigned a red code will have the highest access, and other patients will be assigned green, yellow or blue (the worst) depending on a "triage officer's" decision. In truth, a death officer. Let's not sugarcoat it. It won't be up to your own doctor.
Cuomo could have purchased the additional 16,000 needed ventilators for $36,000 apiece or a total of $576 million in 2015. It's a lot of money but less than the $750 million he threw away on a boondoggle "Buffalo Billion" solar panel factory. When it comes to state budget priorities, spending half a percent of the budget on ventilators is a no brainer.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...an_142685.html
boom
Yeah but lets say best case scenario that the population density that was present in Lombardy wasn't a limiting factor. We know this because of the level of outbreak they achieved there right? So if the popoulation densities of Texas cities are higher, I'm not sure how you can make a case that our population density will save us.
Sorry, I don't think I'm tracking with you here. Population densities in the cities of Lombardy, i.e., Milan, are higher than those here, i.e., Houston. Higher density --> more rapid transmission and lower density --> less transmission.
We're detecting more cases because we're testing more. And this obviously does have an impact on the rate - especially if you just look at a couple of days. But we know we're only seeing a fraction of the total cases, and the increases are exactly what you'd expect to see in a distribution that is growing exponentially. The question is the testing growth outpacing the spread of the virus? I guess thats possible, but we'd know really soon after the testing ramp up because you see an initial growth, then a drop. We did see that for one day last week, but afterwards its just been the same 20-30% increase each day. Each day that you get with that same rate the more confidence in it people should have.
Furthermore the rate is similar to places around the world that had more testing form the get go. So it fits what you would expect to see.
this is gonna be a bloodbath
Milan is only 70 sq miles and only has a about 1 million population. Its a tiny tiny fraction of Lombardy. Houston's area is much larger, I think an order of magnitude at least (600+ sq miles). If the outbreak were confined to Milan I'd agree with you, but its not. Its in the whole region.
what do you consider ramped up?
experts say every detected person has infect 2 to 2.5 others
Trash says 37K die every year due to flu,
so let's everybody pack the churches Easter Sunday and
"resurrect" America by everybody going back to work Easter Monday
(subtext: 0Ks or 100Ks will die by coronavirus, but the economy must be back and strong so I can be reelected)
Don't care about the political football D vs. R crap, this event should serve as an object lesson going forward for everyone on the political spectrum. Dems need to quit throwing money at iden y politics and certain environmental frivolities (not all of them are a waste of money) and Repubs need to stop fetishizing the military, which leads to a cool trillion every year to buy what are essentially big boy toys and fund bases in countries that don't need defense (UK, Germany, etc). The politician who gets the idea to fold pandemic response into national defense and cut funding for like F35s and aircraft carriers and vow to build the greatest healthcare system the world has ever seen will get my vote, D or R. The brown man with the broken AK47 just isn't worth worrying about anymore, although I understand many get their hard when the U.S. "shocks and awes!"After learning that the state's stockpile of medical equipment had 16,000 fewer ventilators than New Yorkers would need in a severe pandemic, Gov. Andrew Cuomo came to a fork in the road in 2015. He could have chosen to buy more ventilators. Instead, he asked his health commissioner, Howard Zucker to assemble a task force and draft rules for rationing the ventilators they already had.
That task force came up with rules that will be imposed when ventilators run short. Patients assigned a red code will have the highest access, and other patients will be assigned green, yellow or blue (the worst) depending on a "triage officer's" decision. In truth, a death officer. Let's not sugarcoat it. It won't be up to your own doctor.
Cuomo could have purchased the additional 16,000 needed ventilators for $36,000 apiece or a total of $576 million in 2015. It's a lot of money but less than the $750 million he threw away on a boondoggle "Buffalo Billion" solar panel factory. When it comes to state budget priorities, spending half a percent of the budget on ventilators is a no brainer.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...an_142685.html
bend over, i'll show you a bloodbath
this is gonna be a bloodbath
what does iden y politics have to do with healthcare
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