Trade Rumours about Poeltl

[TimDunkem]

The article JeffDuncan linked is the only "rumor" I've seen about trading Poeltl. And even it only mentions that Atlanta was inquiring about him "earlier in the season". I didn't see anything about the Spurs looking to get rid of Poeltl, or any recent discussions.

I think you underestimate him. Most NBA C's take a few years to show us who they are going to be. Poeltl's recent advance is pretty typical. He's been an absolute beast in the paint - to the point that opposing teams start to avoid going at him. That's valuable. I think he's worth keeping.

Not at anything higher than the QO. I think he'll hit his ceiling soon. Again, not worth the investment.

[Shakril]

As i said starting the Thread, its mostly rumours. Teams mentionend to date were Atlanta, Memphis and Sacramento. (Last 2 i forgot were i read it, so no links).

When you see how much players like Forbes, Carroll and Gay get on the spurs, and other Players on other teams, it is not unreasonable to think that a Quality Rim Protector, who poeltl is, can fetch around 8 Mil a year. Nba is not only 3s, but also high percent shots around the rim. Thats why i believe Poeltl has great value. Sadly many "experts" on this board like TimDunkem undervalue him massively.

In Conclusion:

Spurs should resign him, but as of now i a missing a coherent plan from the Spurs regarding the future Rosterbuilding. I actually was disturbed they resigned Gay for the money they did.
So i would not surprised if they trade him to either a contender or to a team that can give value back. Letting him go for nothing in the Summer is probably the worst that can happen.

[ragas]

Poeltl could take the qualifying offer for developing his skills with Timmy & Chip one more year - except he gets an offer from the Raptors or a contender. After that he should easily find a better team to play for.

[sananspursfan21]

You're an absolute idiot if you think you have to give a slightly above average center an extension.

All of basketball intelligentsia,

From analysts to beat writers,

Literally everyone...

...knows that you can find value easily at the center position. Guys will be available. You don't need to waste time locking down a center longterm unless he's a franchise type player. PERIOD.

I mean, I know you have a hard-on for Poeltl, OP...

But, no, just no. No ing extensions for average or slightly above average centers.

Seems like centers have always been kind of a turnstile position, especially for San Antonio.

[JeffDuncan]

...
Spurs should resign him, but as of now i a missing a coherent plan from the Spurs regarding the future Rosterbuilding. ...

I'd challenge anybody to find a coherent plan in the Spurs' roster construction. I think the Spurs realize they should probably have a center on the team. I guess so.

[Fireball]

there is nothing like a Poeltl jam ...on offense and defense ... lets keep him

[Drom John]

ESPN Real Plus Minus Wins

All Players
81 D.J. Augustin
82 Jakob Poeltl
83 Mikal Bridges

Centers
11 Karl Anthony-Towns
12 Jakob Poeltl
13 Jonas Valanciunas

Center Offense RPM
1 Karl Anthony-Towns
2 Jakob Poeltl
3 Boban Marjonovic

Center Defense RPM
28 Nikola Vucevic
29 Jakob Poeltl
30 Tristan Thompson

[Seventyniner]

I'd challenge anybody to find a coherent plan in the Spurs' roster construction. I think the Spurs realize they should probably have a center on the team. I guess so.

At this point I think they're just playing out the string until 2021 free agency. All the big contracts are lining up to expire then.

Still, I don't think anyone in the front office anticipated this big of a dropoff from last season. I think they were okay with being a low playoff seed and a first round exit this season and next, but the disaster this season has become will force their hand. How important is the playoff streak and revenue versus long-term plans? It will be interesting to see what happens.

Inertia is the most powerful force in the universe, though. Pop and the front office seem to be half-assing it this season, so I won't expect anything different for now.

[spurspl]

the only better fit centers in long term we can get is drummond, bamba and collins(hes questionable bc of injuries). So id keep poeltl and focus on getting real future star on another position via trading lma/ddr and the rest players including djm loonie white if needed.

[8FOR!3]

Ya’ll realize he’s only 24 right? I’d only trade him if it were a steal on our behalf. He’s already very good, he seems to be getting better every year. Ya’ll look at guys like Murray and expect them to develop but look at guys like Poeltl and think he is what he is. I think he develops a 3 point shot at some point in his career but I don’t think it’s anything that needs to be rushed.

to put it into perspective, Tiago Splitter was a rookie in the NBA at Poeltl’s age

[John B]

Poeltl needs to hit them FT's or he would be a liability out there. Metu would be a viable option

[Sugus]

Ya’ll realize he’s only 24 right? I’d only trade him if it were a steal on our behalf. He’s already very good, he seems to be getting better every year. Ya’ll look at guys like Murray and expect them to develop but look at guys like Poeltl and think he is what he is. I think he develops a 3 point shot at some point in his career but I don’t think it’s anything that needs to be rushed.

to put it into perspective, Tiago Splitter was a rookie in the NBA at Poeltl’s age

This. Not to mention, there is already a marked improvement on Poeltl's play from the way he was doing this time last season... He's clearly not peaked yet or close to it. Ideally the Spurs trade LMA for assets and have Jakob starting next season; he's too good to be playing 12mpg. I'd consider trading him away of the Spurs were lottery picking and there was a transcendent center, à la Timmy, to be had.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Not at anything higher than the QO. I think he'll hit his ceiling soon. Again, not worth the investment.

Wow, you know all about basketball.

So you think he's worth about 1/3 of, say, Gorgi Deng or Ian Mahinmi? (Do you even know how much the QO for Poeltl will be, without looking it up?) On the list of current C's and C-F's, Poeltl is 20th in Win Shares. He's 17th in total Rebounds. He's 9th in total AST's. All that, even though he's only 33rd in minutes played.

He's taken a big step upward in the last couple of months. So what is it, specifically, that tells you he's at his ceiling?

[Drom John]

Qualifying from Hoops Hype and above, then the new estimated MLE from Real GM

Jakob Poeltl
$5,087,870 Qualifying offer
$9,755,000 MLE, non-taxpayer
$6,025,000 MLE, tax-payer
$5,023,000 MLE, team-room

[exstatic]

Wow, you know all about basketball.

So you think he's worth about 1/3 of, say, Gorgi Deng or Ian Mahinmi? (Do you even know how much the QO for Poeltl will be, without looking it up?) On the list of current C's and C-F's, Poeltl is 20th in Win Shares. He's 17th in total Rebounds. He's 9th in total AST's. All that, even though he's only 33rd in minutes played.

He's taken a big step upward in the last couple of months. So what is it, specifically, that tells you he's at his ceiling?

Both of those players signed their deals before the rules changes that basically forbid players from fighting around picks, forcing tons of switches and making big men vulnerable to perimeter defense. You cannot compare the value of a center 3-4 years ago to the value now. It doesn't matter what they signed for in 2016, it matters how teams value players in the 5 spot RIGHT NOW, or, more accurately, next summer. It would be like comparing the value of a 2000 sqft house in San Antonio with a 2000 sqft house in San Jose, CA. The markets are just different, even though the commodity is the same.

[TimDunkem]

Both of those players signed their deals before the rules changes that basically forbid players from fighting around picks, forcing tons of switches and making big men vulnerable to perimeter defense. You cannot compare the value of a center 3-4 years ago to the value now. It doesn't matter what they signed for in 2016, it matters how teams value players in the 5 spot RIGHT NOW, or, more accurately, next summer. It would be like comparing the value of a 2000 sqft house in San Antonio with a 2000 sqft house in San Jose, CA. The markets are just different, even though the commodity is the same.

Nail. Hammer. Head. You got it.

Poeltl isn't bad. He's better than I thought he would be, honestly. But he is more of a traditional defensive center. Valuable? Sure. Essential in today's game? Not so much. You need switchable bigs, not your traditional shot blockers.

If the Spurs upgrade where they SHOULD first (the perimeter and 4), then Poeltl won't be as necessary because guys like Forbes, Bell, Mills, DD, etc, aren't letting their man blow by them thus forcing him to clean up all those messes.

The Spurs would miss him against those teams with traditional post players, but it isn't worth settling on him with the kinds of contracts this team has been giving out lately. And, no, I don't trust them not to overpay for Poeltl.

[RC_Drunkford]

I would keep Poeltl. Fits with the young core, should be cheap to resign and is superb defensively. He has to develop an offensive skill set and has been working on it, so further improvement is likely. Not to mention that we only have 2 Centers and C's usually take a long time to understand Pop's overrated system.

[TimDunkem]

I would keep Poeltl. Fits with the young core, should be cheap to resign and is superb defensively. He has to develop an offensive skill set and has been working on it, so further improvement is likely. Not to mention that we only have 2 Centers and C's usually take a long time to understand Pop's overrated system.

If Poeltl starts stepping out and hitting Js and can suddenly switch out on the perimeter, then you pay that man. If he is the same guy plus some ugly hookshot then the Spurs should keep looking.

[ZeusWillJudge]

Both of those players signed their deals before the rules changes that basically forbid players from fighting around picks, forcing tons of switches and making big men vulnerable to perimeter defense. You cannot compare the value of a center 3-4 years ago to the value now. It doesn't matter what they signed for in 2016, it matters how teams value players in the 5 spot RIGHT NOW, or, more accurately, next summer. It would be like comparing the value of a 2000 sqft house in San Antonio with a 2000 sqft house in San Jose, CA. The markets are just different, even though the commodity is the same.

Why don't you tell me exactly what rules changed in 2016 that forbid players from fighting around screens. The NBA publishes rules changes. I'll wait while you look it up.

[Chinook]

Why don't you tell me exactly what rules changed in 2016 that forbid players from fighting around screens. The NBA publishes rules changes. I'll wait while you look it up.

It wasn't an explicit rule change. It was that they put in a "point of emphasis" for refs to call more contact by defenders on the perimeter. The league actually rarely changes their rules, but they will unofficially tell their refs to call things differently.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...ba/4059552002/

That's one of the articles that talks about it.

I don't disagree with you that "freedom of movement" didn't really do much to centers like Poeltl. But I also think it's somewhat dishonest to use two contracts that were considered bad when signed and were definitely signed in a friendlier market than what bigs have now. It'd be really hard to see him get a deal averaging eight figures.

[ZeusWillJudge]

It wasn't an explicit rule change. It was that they put in a "point of emphasis" for refs to call more contact by defenders on the perimeter. The league actually rarely changes their rules, but they will unofficially tell their refs to call things differently.

https://www.azcentral.com/story/spor...ba/4059552002/

That's one of the articles that talks about it.

I don't disagree with you that "freedom of movement" didn't really do much to centers like Poeltl. But I also think it's somewhat dishonest to use two contracts that were considered bad when signed and were definitely signed in a friendlier market than what bigs have now. It'd be really hard to see him get a deal averaging eight figures.

Exactly. They changed the way the game is called, but didn't make it explicit. Those are things that can (and do) get changed as they see that things are out of balance. I didn't say that Poeltl is worth what those two guys are getting paid. I questioned whether he's only worth 1/3 of what they are getting paid. You know the answer to that.

I saw a league-wide shot chart recently. It was scary how almost all the shots are from out at the 3P line, or in the paint. Poeltl is showing signs of being a damn good defender in the paint. That makes him valuable, even if he doesn't develop a 3P shot. He also scores in the paint, and does a decent job of running the floor.

The only thing I questioned - the ONLY thing - is the statement that he's worth the QO, and nothing more. The QO is only 125% of his fourth year rookie deal, which for him is about $4.7M. He's going to get more than that in a weak FA class. He just is. And I think you know that, even if the guy I was talking to doesn't.

[TimDunkem]

I wasn't implying he won't get more in the market. I know he will, but it shouldn't be from the Spurs.

[Chinook]

Exactly. They changed the way the game is called, but didn't make it explicit. Those are things that can (and do) get changed as they see that things are out of balance. I didn't say that Poeltl is worth what those two guys are getting paid. I questioned whether he's only worth 1/3 of what they are getting paid. You know the answer to that.

I saw a league-wide shot chart recently. It was scary how almost all the shots are from out at the 3P line, or in the paint. Poeltl is showing signs of being a damn good defender in the paint. That makes him valuable, even if he doesn't develop a 3P shot. He also scores in the paint, and does a decent job of running the floor.

The only thing I questioned - the ONLY thing - is the statement that he's worth the QO, and nothing more. The QO is only 125% of his fourth year rookie deal, which for him is about $4.7M. He's going to get more than that in a weak FA class. He just is. And I think you know that, even if the guy I was talking to doesn't.

I think Poeltl is worth about the QO is the Spurs think he's going to be a backup for the length of the deal. If he can be a starter/30mpg guy, I wouldn't really mind $30M/4. Honestly, when the team is paying a guy $7 Million to not play, they can afford to give a guy who contributes a big more. Hopefully, once Pop leaves, the apparent disconnect between the FO and coaching staff won't be there anymore. Poe's a really good per-minute center, and I don't think that's really easy to find. For sure, definitely backups and third-stringers shouldn't get much money. But having a good defensive center will literally always be important.

I also think that people tend to think of spacing a one-dimensional, meaning just along the three-point line. In reality, spacing is three-dimensional, and having a rim-running big who finishes well will open things up for everyone else. You can't play five-out. Right now, DeRozan plays inside enough to where the team benefits from a stretch-five. But that may well not always be the case, and it already isn't with the bench. Poe's lack of shooting isn't close of the biggest problem he has. He has to focus on improving his strengths like being a more consistent rebounder and keeping his fouls down rather than getting new skills. There are a number of defensive C's who score opportunistically on good teams in the league today.

[ZeusWillJudge]

I think Poeltl is worth about the QO is the Spurs think he's going to be a backup for the length of the deal. If he can be a starter/30mpg guy, I wouldn't really mind $30M/4. Honestly, when the team is paying a guy $7 Million to not play, they can afford to give a guy who contributes a big more. Hopefully, once Pop leaves, the apparent disconnect between the FO and coaching staff won't be there anymore. Poe's a really good per-minute center, and I don't think that's really easy to find. For sure, definitely backups and third-stringers shouldn't get much money. But having a good defensive center will literally always be important.

I also think that people tend to think of spacing a one-dimensional, meaning just along the three-point line. In reality, spacing is three-dimensional, and having a rim-running big who finishes well will open things up for everyone else. You can't play five-out. Right now, DeRozan plays inside enough to where the team benefits from a stretch-five. But that may well not always be the case, and it already isn't with the bench. Poe's lack of shooting isn't close of the biggest problem he has. He has to focus on improving his strengths like being a more consistent rebounder and keeping his fouls down rather than getting new skills. There are a number of defensive C's who score opportunistically on good teams in the league today.

That's a good explanation of something that most people don't appear to get. Put Poeltl on the right team, and he's valuable. The only thing I would dare to add is that he WILL get 4/$30 from someone, if not a little more. If not the Spurs, then someone else. The $4.7M QO just isn't enough to get it done. If Pop isn't going to use him in a way that's worth more than that, then they should absolutely move him now. He's one of the players on the roster who has positive value.

Poeltl could definitely improve his rebounding, starting with boxing out. But compared to other big men in the league, his fouls really aren't bad. I was looking at a Per36 number, and it's been a bit since I looked, but I don't think it's changed that much. He's far from a foul maching. He could improve situationally, but overall he's not that bad. He also has (would have) value with DeRozan on the floor, because he sets good picks and he's not a half bad dive man. If the Spurs do let him go, there will be people here whining when they see how he could have been used.

[hombre]

Someone will give him more than the Spurs will pay. Teams always do.