2020 Dem primaries discussion thread

[Winehole23]

(disclosure, I'm for Bernie.)

[Blake]

With the exception of HW (Reagan coat tails) and Clinton (helped by Perot) the perceived party "moderate" has lost every time since I was in middle school.

That finicky electoral college

[Will Hunting]

I have disdain for Pete too on top of Bloomer. He just seems like a genuinely insufferable head.

I have nothing against Biden but just think he’s an extremely flawed candidate. If the establishment presented a candidate who wasn’t so grotesquely flawed I’d be more supportive of nominating a moderate and “winning the center” (ie if Sherrod Brown was running) but the options to choose from are all ty.

[Winehole23]

Only Democratic candidate I have disdain for is Bloomberg. He is ing cancer.

I wish he would quit sending mail to my home. I've considered live posting its destruction.

[ChumpDumper]

I’m talking about his negative complains about millennials from months ago.

So far his support from young people has been solidly in the single digits.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...he-nomination/

I guess. He got 30% of the under 44 vote in SC, but I guess we can parse that down to whites under 30 if we want to make him look bad.

[Will Hunting]

With the exception of HW (Reagan coat tails) and Clinton (helped by Perot) the perceived party "moderate" has lost every time since I was in middle school.

A reality people ignore.

HW was also running against an even more bland and mediocre centrist on the other side in ‘88

Clinton was also just a great politician. Him being a moderate isn’t what won elections, it was Perot and him having all the personality traits that make someone a great presidential candidate.

[Will Hunting]

I guess. He got 30% of the under 44 vote in SC, but I guess we can parse that down to whites under 30 if we want to make him look bad.

Its not clear if SC was an aberration or a sign of more to come. If it’s the later then this primary will be over in a few days

[SnakeBoy]

That finicky electoral college

Actually I'm wrong about Clinton. He was not viewed as a generic party moderate at the time. So that just leaves HW as the only vanilla candidate who has become POTUS in 40 years.

[Spurminator]

Sounds like another “ran into a buzzsaw!” excuse for a moderate losing an election.

I'm saying Bernie isn't up against nearly what Kerry was up against. Bernie folks have insisted that he will drive enthusiasm and turnout, so to now say it's only a failure if he loses as bad as John Kerry seems like a goalpost move to me.

He'd be up against the least popular President in modern history, economy or not. The election is his to lose.

[SnakeBoy]

A reality people ignore.

HW was also running against an even more bland and mediocre centrist on the other side in ‘88

Clinton was also just a great politician. Him being a moderate isn’t what won elections, it was Perot and him having all the personality traits that make someone a great presidential candidate.

Yeah I was wrong to include Clinton as a generic candidate

[Will Hunting]

Actually I'm wrong about Clinton. He was not viewed as a generic party moderate at the time. So that just leaves HW as the only vanilla candidate who has become POTUS in 40 years.

Between HW and Mike Bukkake, HW was definitely less vanilla

[SnakeBoy]

Between HW and Mike Bukkake, HW was definitely less vanilla

True

[ElNono]

Depending on results, sure. Do you recognize that in bents have natural advantages that must be overcome which weren’t in place in 2016?

will you blame Biden/Pete/Bloomberg voters?

I don't know about that. In bency is a double edged sword. You don't have the freedom to con people like you did the first time around, they already saw what you're about.

On the other hand, it also depends on the compe ion. Somebody like Biden is a well known quan y, so his BS leverage is also fairly low.

[Will Hunting]

I'm saying Bernie isn't up against nearly what Kerry was up against. Bernie folks have insisted that he will drive enthusiasm and turnout, so to now say it's only a failure if he loses as bad as John Kerry seems like a goalpost move to me.

He'd be up against the least popular President in modern history, economy or not. The election is his to lose.

I know what you’re saying - when moderates lose elections it’s not their fault and they ran into a buzzsaw so it doesn’t count as a strike against the establishment strategy of winning the middle, but if Sanders loses it’s absolutely his fault for not being more moderate.

“least popular president in American history”. His approval rating is at 43% right now and we both know that 43% is among voters who are disproportionately represented by the electoral college. This isn’t by any stretch of the imagination another 1980 where the in bent is historically weak.

[SnakeBoy]

His approval rating is at 43% right now and we both know that 43% is among voters who are disproportionately represented by the electoral college. This isn’t by any stretch of the imagination another 1980 where the in bent is historically weak.

46% on rcp, higher than Obama at this same point I believe.

Big Dog is strong

[Ball Buster]

[vy65]

46% on rcp, higher than Obama at this same point I believe.

Big Dog is strong

Lol no

[baseline bum]

46% on rcp, higher than Obama at this same point I believe.

Big Dog is strong

Great message Romney and Ryan went with in that election: hey let's take away everyone's Medicare*.

*except for the boomers that we made promises to

[vy65]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

[Will Hunting]

Great message Romney and Ryan went with in that election: hey let's take away everyone's Medicare*.

*except for the boomers that we made promises to

I forget how much was the annual “voucher” they were going to hand out in lieu of Medicare? That was the stupidest healthcare idea I’ve ever heard.

[SnakeBoy]

Great message Romney and Ryan went with in that election: hey let's take away everyone's Medicare*.

*except for the boomers that we made promises to

Yeah terrible message to the youth

Trump's is better... Deficits? That's a you problem.

[Pelicans78]

Actually I'm wrong about Clinton. He was not viewed as a generic party moderate at the time. So that just leaves HW as the only vanilla candidate who has become POTUS in 40 years.

To be fair, he was one of the most qualified people ever to get elected. His first term was was pretty strong. He just inherited a mess from Reagan who was a disaster in his second term. I don’t think we’ve had as good as a first term since unless you count Trump’s on the economy even though the debt and inflation are still rising.

[SnakeBoy]

To be fair, he was one of the most qualified people ever to get elected. His first term was was pretty strong. He just inherited a mess from Reagan who was a disaster in his second term. I don’t think we’ve had as good as a first term since unless you count Trump’s on the economy even though the debt and inflation are still rising.

I did like how effective he was at enacting Newt's agenda tbh

[koriwhat]

Black people like free / hate gimpy white cuckolds.

Ask blake. He'll tell you.

How'd I miss this gem?

[Reck]

You got me there. Still a more indirect shot though. I don’t know anyone here or in real life that’s taking Bloomberg seriously.

Comment was mostly a throwaway line.