The stiff arm
2021 Offense IT:
Markets don’t always tell you the real value of someone. Somewhere Danny Tartabull is waiting in line to cash a check to prove that point. But markets do work to create the perceived value from people who get paid a lot of money to be right more often than they’re wrong.
The recruiting market, the one comprised of real coaches, not us recruiting dorks, isn’t very impressed with the 2021Texas offensive haul. It should be noted the dorks aren’t overly impressed either.
The beauty of recruiting and evaluation is the difference between the macrocosm, large numbers of recruits aggregated by rating, and the microcosm, that pesky individual who doesn’t always conform to the limitations of being a three-star.
We don’t like using outliers here, but Colt McCoy is useful for understanding the microcosm. It turns out he was actually a five-star recruit despite being a 6-foot-1, 170-pound, small school quarterback with no elite physical traits, other than perhaps accuracy. That was a great evaluation.
We’re not certain who among this group will overshoot their expectations, but these were some strong evaluations (stemming from necessity but that’s a different story).
QB Charles Wright, Austin High (Austin, TX) - Composite .8572 - early enrollee
Recruitment: It was a sensational cycle for quarterbacks in 2021 with Wright being called a sleeper early on by a Big 12 OC. Fittingly, he committed to Matt Campbell and Iowa State until Texas lost Jalen Milroe to Alabama. Wright was the obvious ‘next man up’ given the cir stances and he wasted no time flipping. With UT having a couple portal candidates at the position, Wright made even more sense for Texas from a long term stability standpoint. A really good get, all things considered.
Evaluation: Compe ive kid who remained with his poor team rather than looking to transfer. He’s used to playing under constant pressure, moving his feet and resetting, and buying time. He has a good, but not great arm. He demonstrates good ball placement over the middle and to the outside. Solid athlete. No glaring holes in his game with surprise potential due to his mental makeup and improvisational ability.
Lead time: Should be ready to provide depth after one year. Could play in a pinch as a freshman.
Expectations: The quarterback position rarely plays out how it should on paper, in part because there are a lot of rankings misses due to hard to read mental attributes, and also because of constant transferring. I don‘t know what to expect with Wright, but I’m confident he can win football games at Texas like he would have at Iowa State.
RB Jonathon Brooks, Hallettsville (Hallettsville, TX) - .8850
Recruitment: Texas was his first offer and his recruitment was pretty much over before it started. Despite his utter domination of lesser compe ion, his stock never took off.
Evaluation: When I first watched him I was confident he’d blow up and become a national recruit, but it didn’t materialize due to lack of long-speed. More important than long speed are nuanced traits and those are evident, namely feel, lateral agility, and vision. He’s playing against a bunch of undersized FFA kids which allows him to run upright, but his new defensive teammates will fix that for him in his first few practices. Other than lack of home run speed there’s a lot to like.
Lead time: For the time being, the depth chart is thin and it’s conceivable he’ll be needed as a freshman. Keaontay Ingram’s future is uncertain and the staff is still chasing Cy-Fair’s LJ Johnson. Brooks’ biggest issue will be the adjustment to compe ion. Those running lanes are going to close much sooner. It won’t be a long adjustment period, though, because he is pretty natural.
Expectations: Volume back if needed but more likely a steady platoon back who gets a little more than what’s blocked for thanks to that vision and lateral quickness.
WR Jaden Alexis, Monarch (Coconut Creek, FL) - .8925 - early enrollee
Recruitment: The son of NFL veteran running back, Rich Alexis, held a lot of big offers but most schools weren’t pressing when UT moved in and defeated Miami.
Evaluation: Florida speed with verified 4.5 40 as a junior. Could easily be classified as an athlete. Could play APB/slot/ZWR or even DB if he wanted. Route running is simple — bubbles and verts. Will need to work on that. Not great length but will compete for the ball in the air. Get him in space with defenders in conflict. Very intelligent kid.
Lead time: His intelligence and speed leads me to believe it won’t take him too long to be ready, but I wouldn’t expect much production from him early on. I’d get him snaps in the Jordan Whittington role we saw glimpses of late in the season. I’d also test him out on kick and punt return.
Expectations: He should be able to start at slot or field receiver after the depth chart thins a little. If Texas experiences attrition he’ll be called to duty earlier.
WR Casey Cain, Warren Easton (New Orleans, LA) - .8519
Recruitment: Similar to Brooks, he has a pedestrian offer list and was an easy pull for the Texas staff. Mike Yurcich was his main advocate and it’s not hard seeing Cain being similar to Chris Lacy who played for Yurcich at Oklahoma State. Even better, perhaps he’s Marcell Ateman.
Evaluation: He’s a very long 6-foot-2, with quick feet at the LOS to help beat press. He’s fluid and runs well, but doesn’t have great burst. Short area quickness does appear to be good. Cain possesses a huge catch radius relative to height and strong hands and ball skills.
Lead time: If Brennan Eagles departs early it’s possible Cain works his way into the rotation as a true freshman, but more likely he’ll redshirt.
Expectations: If his fluidity and quickness lends itself to good route running, he’ll be able to create the necessary separation to become a quality boundary receiver. At minimum he should become a quality target receiver because of his hands and 50/50 ability.
TE Juan Davis, Everman (Everman, TX) - .8742
Recruitment: Yet another recruitment Texas didn’t have to fight all that hard for, in part because he was high atop the big board very early in the process. He was a Derek Warehime favorite and UT’s only early compe ion was SMU. Texas A&M did offer later in the process, which is a good sign of Davis’ ability.
Evaluation: Davis doesn’t care to watch football, he wants to play it. These kids are often ballers you can line up anywhere. Relative to that point, Davis has played quarterback for Everman. He’s fluid but not explosive for a skill player. He does have stellar hands. If he’s willing to do the dirty work, and I believe he is, he could become a quality move-piece as tight end or h-back. However, I would not rule out a look at outside linebacker. There might be some ability to get after the passer here.
Lead time: He’ll certainly be able to redshirt with Jared Wiley, Brayden Liebrock, and potentially Malcolm Epps ahead of him.
Expectations: With minimal tape, plus him not playing his college position much of the time, it’s hard to know where his floor and ceiling are. He does have the athletic and physical specs to find a long-term home somewhere.
TE Gunnar Helm, Cherry Creek (Englewood, CO) - .8674 - early enrollee
Recruitment: Colorado (Colorado?) was loaded at tight end this year. Helm is actually ranked 4th at his position in the land of Bo Scaife but colleges valued Helm more than the networks. He picked up a number of quality national offers. That written, when it was time to pick a school, UT was the one pressing the hardest.
Evaluation: He’s not the bouncy basketball athlete you tend to find at the position but he has the ability to become a legitimate receiving weapon down the seams. He has a good frame for a dual threat TE with enough heft to block but still lean enough to keep his movement skills. He’s 6-5, 230 pounds, and can do a back flip so there are some intriguing raw materials to work with.
Lead time: He’s facing the same depth chart as Juan Davis. One of Helm or Davis, probably Helm, should emerge as the third TE next season if Epps departs.
Expectations: At a minimum he should develop into a starter quality tight end as the depth chart thins in front of him but he may have Charlie Kolar upside.
OL Hayden Conner, Taylor (Katy, TX) - .8871 - early enrollee
Recruitment: Conner was a known in recruiting circles as a freshman and not just because he was big for his age. He always played with older kids, sometimes even at tight end because of his athleticism. Offers were numerous by the time he was a sop re. Early on, Nebraska and Wisconsin were real options but his recruitment funneled towards a UT/A&M battle, with UT winning thanks to his relationship with Herb Hand, former commit Jalen Milroe selecting Texas, and, perhaps most importantly, academics.
Evaluation: Good upside as a guard with a mauler’s build and just enough athleticism to make you think tackle could work. I’ve seen him run routes as a tight end in 7-on-7 and he’s not your typical interior offensive line athlete. He’s ran a 4.77 shuttle.
Lead time: Offensive lineman always need time to adjust and develop, but Conner will have the mental side down quickly. Despite his large frame, he can lean up a little and carry good, functional weight.
Expectations: He could theoretically start in his second or third year on campus with guard most likely. After a year of getting comfortable however, he could be a tackle. In 10 years it’s just as easy to picture him in the NFL as it is working at NASA.
OL Max Merril, Strake Jesuit (Houston, TX) - .8506
Recruitment: Stop me if you’ve read this before, but compe ion for Texas wasn’t fierce in this recruitment. That written, like the others previously mentioned, when you roll the tape you see the makings of a good evaluation. After quite a few o-line misses, Texas called Merril up and he didn’t take long to commit.
Evaluation: I’m not saying he’s Connor Williams, Sam Cosmi, or Andrej Karic, but there are shades of their overall foot and reactive quickness in Merril’s game. He sticks to his blocks well and keeps his feet moving. Good quickness for outsize zone or on the move in general. His high school line coach, Jordan Hebert, thinks Merril has the makings of a college left tackle and with his feet and coordination I can see it too. Hebert also states Merril is very coachable.
Lead time: He’s a grow’em offensive lineman so he’ll require some time to physically mature but typically these guys take to weights and nutrition rather quickly and are ready faster than “college sized” players who need to reshape. He’ll be ready by the time the depth chart thins.
Expectations: It‘s always a crap shoot with offensive linemen. The football character matters more here than anywhere else but it wouldn’t surprise me if he became a 25-game starter. I like the baseline materials. Higher floor than you’d think.
2021 Defense IT:
We discussed the offense yesterday. Or rather, I drew a detailed portrait of each individual commitment that was met with lachrymose resignation.
The picture is much rosier on defense where we see genuine upside at numerous positions. You can win with these guys.
DT Byron Murphy II, DeSoto (DeSoto, TX)
Recruitment: Murphy was on the Texas radar after his sop re year but length concerns stopped him from truly blowing up. Baylor made a great early ID and earned the commitment until Texas came on late. This has the potential to be a much bigger flip than the rankings would have you believe.
Evaluation: He moves like a giant running back which is not something I say often about defensive tackles. Length is still a bit of an issue but he gets into offensive lineman quickly and powerfully enough they‘ll struggle to keep him at bay. Owns the low-man advantage at the point of attack. He’ll be effective in backside pursuit and sniffing out screens and draws. He’s a nose tackle in a three-man front, and if Bravvion Roy could play it capably so too can Murphy, however his best fit is in a four-man front where his power and agility will have him winning 1v1.
Lead time: He’s already physically mature and could play as a true freshman. However, UT is deep on the defensive line so he’ll likely have to wait his turn.
Expectations: He’s going to be a handful in his limited early snaps before ramping up to an expanded role over time. He’s going to be a productive Longhorn.
DL Jordon Thomas, Memorial (Port Arthur, TX)
Recruitment: Texas was Thomas’ first offer. After brief flirtations with A&M and LSU, Texas held the lead for a while and won out going away.
Evaluation: First, it was great to see him put together a good year after missing his junior season. What initially made him a Texas take is still there and then some. He profiles to the interior d-line where he can take a more direct path to the backfield. Thomas is a frenetic, high-motor brute. Not a fluid athlete, necessarily, but pretty quick and destructive with good closing speed in the back field. Could play anywhere from 4i on in.
Lead time: If he was a true defensive end, playing time would be available as a freshman but I see him as a defensive tackle, and that’s UT‘s deepest position. He has ‘first off the bus’ ability right off the bat.
Expectations: Mid-to-late round NFL draft pick. He has some grown man, 'I’m too old for this ****' to his game.
DL Barryn Sorrell, Holy Cross (New Orleans, LA)
Recruitment: Committed and signed to Texas on National Signing Day after a brief pursuit.
Evaluation: He’s not the raw athlete that Malcolm Roach was, but he’s similarly under-appreciated because he’s rated at the wrong position. Sorrell has legitimate upside as a 3-tech, though he lacks the requisite movement skills and explosiveness for defensive end. Who cares, get him in the right position and cut him loose. He’s good off the ball in a straight line. Naturally powerful. Can match guard strength then get them quickness.
Lead time: While I say his best position is 3-tech, he may go the Moro Ojomo route early in his career and play strong-side defensive end. That could have him in the lineup a little quicker. A redshirt is in order either way, mainly because of depth.
Expectations: Sorrell looks to have starter upside but I don’t know anything about him as a person. Is he Mal Roach or Mike Williams?
DE Ja'Tavion Sanders, Ryan (Denton, TX)
Recruitment: He committed to Texas, the wire to wire leader, two summers ago. It was a simpler time.
Evaluation: I’ve had him as a defensive end since I first saw his sop re year and proclaimed him a future five-star. Howeva, I can easily see him as a very good tight end and I think the case can be made for that being his best position. If you disagree, go watch the Arlington Martin game. As awesome of a prospect as Sanders is, he’s not the easiest to project because of his uncommon work rate for a big man. I wonder if he’s a five-star when it comes to getting after the passer. I tend to think not, but he’s also running damn near as much as a central midfielder in soccer. His greatest strength is probably his feet and fluidity at his size, rather than raw explosion.
Lead time: He’ll play well as a true freshman.
Expectations: UT needs defensive ends in a major way so that should be the plan for Sanders, but he could be an NFL tight end too. I think he sticks on defense and becomes a 2nd-3rd round draft pick.
LB Morice Blackwell, Martin (Arlington, TX)
Recruitment: Blackwell was thought by all to be a big Baylor lean but UT moved in immediately after missing on South Oak Cliff’s Jaydon Williams. Blackwell committed to Texas on Mother’s Day and dedicated his decision to all your mamas. Okay, that’s not true, but watch the outgoing young man practice and I could see him saying that to his teammates.
Evaluation: About 6-foot-1 with roughly the body fat of a triathlete, Blackwell might be a bit narrow of build and a hard-gainer but the weight will come. He moves so well I’ve wondered if he could moonlight at SPUR early in his career (if that position still exists). While he’s known for being athletic, a rival coach mentions how Blackwell will mix it up between the tackles as well. Blackwell has an infectious passion for the game. He’ll need to keep his athleticism while adding weight, but lean guys typically do.
Lead time: He could become a quality special teamer early on. He certainly was a difference maker for Martin whether on coverage, return, or block teams. While he needs to gain weight, we’re only talking 25-30 pounds or so for the modern game.
Expectations: I think he’ll become a quality starter and perhaps much more. Guys with his versatility pan out. Ideally this class shakes out with Blackwell at Will and Cooks at Mike.
LB Terrence Cooks, Shadow Creek (Pearland, TX)
Recruitment: Texas led early on thanks to a combination of academics and Cooks’ relationship with new linebackers coach Coleman Hutzler. It was a mostly anti-climactic courtship.
Evaluation: Physically he’s the ideal modern day starter kit at 6-foot-2, 215 pounds. He’ll play around 230 in order to keep the movement skills that garnered him attention in the first place. Should be an excellent blitzer both up the gut and off the edge. Athleticism for Will but he may become an excellent Mike in time. Plus coverage skills for a linebacker that are bolstered by length. Instincts and ability to understand what the offense is doing are is still a question. He’ll require good teaching. Smart kid. There’s some Malik Jefferson to him.
Lead time: His frame and strength will explode upon arrival. His overall readiness will be determined by his grasp of the demanding mental aspects of the position.
Expectations: He has NFL physical specs but linebacker is such an instinctive/mental position. It’s one thing to run quickly, another thing to play quickly. With good coaching I expect him to become All Conference player and NFL draft selection.
LB Derrick Harris Jr., New Caney (New Caney, TX)
Recruitment: He was always going to Texas if the Horns offered. They wasted little time and Harris was a done deal.
Evaluation: Best fit is as an outside linebacker/edge player. Excellent frame potential. He’s a long limbed 6-foot-2.5 who will carry 250 pounds comfortably. If they wanted to try and turn him into a hand-in-the-ground defensive end, that’s a possibility as well. Strong in the lower body with long arms to play the run. Good running the arc. Fluid for OLB, but not enough for ILB. Could handle zone drop duties adequately. Great mental evaluation. Coachable.
Lead time: He missed most of his senior year due to an ACL tear. He’ll work hard to get back on schedule. Texas will need to look at all options to replace Joseph Ossai but it will be too early for Harris.
Expectations: I think he’ll become a quality starter. Love the length, lower body strength, and his mindset. His frame potential makes him hard to project clearly, but in a good way.
CB Ishmael Ibraheem, Kimball (Dallas, TX) - Not signing on Wednesday. He may sign in February pending the status of his legal case.
CB Jamier Johnson, John Muir (Pasadena, CA)
Recruitment: He looked destined for Ohio State and then Oregon but each school ran into numbers issues. Texas defeated Arizona State after Johnson committed sight unseen during Covid 2020.
Evaluation: Here’s a good chance to come clean on my Verone McKinley miss from way back when. While I was confident the former Plano Prestonwood player wouldn’t star at corner I missed that he could become a quality safety. I’m not ruling out corner for Johnson, but I bet he could have a McKinley-like career in center field. There, he’d offer corner-ish coverage ability while not sacrificing much physicality.
Lead time: He’ll redshirt. He’s lean but has good shoulder width to muscle up. It’ll just take a little time.
Expectations: It probably doesn’t portend great things if he’s needed at corner, but perhaps he could be Jalen Green there. I think his ceiling raises if he’s moved to safety. They’ll start him at corner. Where it goes from there I’m unsure.
DB JD Coffey III, Kennedale (Kennedale, TX)
Recruitment: Coffey was a virtual lock to UT early on but the previous staff cooled on him. The new defensive staff didn’t initially go full bore either, but after surveying realistic options they made the correct call and pushed. UT defeated quality schools in Oregon and Washington for his signature.
Evaluation: He’s in the same phylum as Jerrin Thompson and Xavion Alford, two true freshman who are already impressing within the program. He’s pound for pound one of the hardest hitters you’ll find. While that’s often an overrated trait, it does indicate a measure of explosiveness that doesn’t come across in the testing setting. Good range and instincts when playing deep but the ability to run the alley as well. Versatile. He won’t wow with NFL measurables but he’s a football player plain and simple. I was not surprised to see Washington push as he fits the type of player they’ve had success developing.
Lead time: Redshirt him while he physically matures or play him if he helps special teams.
Expectations: Same for Thompson and Alford. He’ll be a good starter at some point but he can overshoot his ranking if the traits that are hard to measure, football character and IQ, show up in a major way.
P Isaac Pearson, ProKick Australia
Recruitment: Texas went back to the same ProKick Australia pipeline that gifted the school Punter #1 and Punter #2.
Evaluation: Reminds me of Aussie punting great Darren Bennett in that Pearson is also right footed.
We’ll be addressing remaining needs tomorrow.
Lead time: He’ll need to climatize to American football. Hopefully his growth occurs in practice and not on the field in important situations. I still remember Michael son’s first few punts in practice. One would have enough leg to arc over Ayers Rock, the next would boomerang towards I-35.
Expectations: He’s going to punt.
Big Fan!!
Cannot say enough how happy I am for Shane Buschele and Kellen Mond. I grew up with Kellen's dad here in San Antonio and he is straight up one of the nicest men I have known. Kellen is a good young man and deserves this. Another of my old high school friends lives in Arlington and goes to church with the Buschele family, they are good friends and he has had nothing but great things to say about Shane.
Shane is a prime example of what a good at ude can get you in life. He could have put his head down and sulked about losing his starting job to Sam, but he didn't he kept working and he ended up not only making a difference here at Texas but built on that in SMU. I say congrats to him.
Friday morning recruiting notes to take you into the weekend
ByMIKE ROACH
—There was some thought Ishmael Ibraheem might sign today, but that looks like it won't happen. Those around the four-star cornerback were planning for a last-minute ceremony, but it appears Texas wants him to hold off until February. The main reason is to resolve the pending court case against him. Ibraheem has a mid-January court date and it's expected that he's let off with a light punishment considering the charge is a misdemeanor and he's a first-time offender. If everything checks out, Ibraheem should be set to sign in February and join the class. There has been constant communication between the Texas staff and the Ibraheem camp on this and I expect it to be resolved. A source at Texas said they felt good about where things are right now.
—If Texas can add some punch to this class moving forward it will have to be with a guy like LJ Johnson. The four-star running back from Cy-Fair is one of the biggest targets on the board for Texas, but the pursuit is getting tougher. I spoke to a source near Johnson who acknowledged Texas still seemed to have a slight edge, but the Aggies would be tough to hold off. A&M assembled a strong offensive line group in this class and added friends of Johnson like Tunmise Adeleye and Bryce Foster. The Longhorns still have a few things working in their favor including a good relationship with Stan Drayton and Brandon Harris and he has an interest in Austin as a city and Texas as an academic school. The Aggies hold a commitment from Miami (Fla.) Central RB Amari Daniels already but are looking to add more. The next month will be a bloody battle between a Texas program hoping to get a big win and an A&M program with all of the in-state momentum right now.
—Keithron Lee appears to be headed to February as well. I mentioned last week that there was some optimism Texas could reel him in this week and get him signed, but it appears they will have to head into January looking to close the deal. I checked with someone near Lee recently who was still bullish on the Texas chances to close the deal and land the highly-productive Bryan Rudder receiver. We will do a full reset of the board on Monday in The Stampede.
Until the coaching issues are resolved recruiting to me is a distant thought. At this point I just want some closure on the Tom Herman situation, I don't even care how it happens or who it is. I'd be happy with firing Tom and turning the team over to Chris Ash as long as he keeps the vast majority of the assistants in place, I still think we have a very effective set of assistants we just need real leadership. Oh, and I somehow want to steal Larry Johnson away from Ohio state, and Mike Munchek away from the NFL.
OU Big 12 champs again....that is getting old
☝ Will not change until Herman is out.
Ja’Quinden Jackson transfers to Utah.
we could also hire another Charlie strong for three or four years.
so who do you have in mind as a replacement?
We have zero in the last 10 seasons and have only played for it once in that period. Sad.
Last edited by DMX7; 12-20-2020 at 03:52 PM.
Or you could hire the next Mack Brown, Lincoln, Bob stoops. I could go on. Just know he is not a quality coach. Not for me to find their HC.
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